MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 13 / 2015
MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 13 / 2015

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor, Alexandru Fală, Ana Popa, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene
Subject(s): National Economy, Economic policy
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Summary/Abstract: The year 2015 can be considered the year of materialized economic risks. Practically all the risks identified in the previous edition of the MEGA publication from April 2015 have materialized: the banking crisis, the perpetuation of political uncertainty, the stagnation of the reform process, the worsening of relations with development partners, the reduction of exports and remittances against the background of the economic crisis in the Russian Federation, inflation 2 digits etc. Moreover, in addition to these constraints, the Republic of Moldova also experienced an unfavorable climatic year that affected agricultural production. As a result of the overlap of external and, above all, internal shocks, economic growth rates have continuously decelerated, and for 2015 an economic recession of around -0.8% and a slow recovery of +2.9% in 2016 is estimated. In fact, the economic recession of the current year could have been much more dramatic if the national currency had not depreciated, a fact that ensured a more favorable performance for exports compared to imports. Thus, if we analyze the formation of the Gross Domestic Product on the uses side, we find that the only reason why, for the first 3 quarters, economic growth remains positive is due to the effect of net exports (increased exports against the background of reduced imports).

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