MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 14 / 2016
MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 14 / 2016

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor, Alexandru Fală, Ana Popa, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene
Subject(s): National Economy, Economic policy
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Summary/Abstract: Despite internal and external constraints, in 2015 the economy fell by only 0.5%, which was close to the baseline scenario of the Expert-Grup forecast (-0.8%) for the given year. The only factor that has cushioned the economic shocks of 2015 was the floating exchange rate regime, which made the currency to depreciate by about 25% during 2015, allowing the Moldovan economy to adjust more easily to the existing constraints. In fact, this has discouraged imports and mitigated, to some extent, the shocks upon exporters, which resulted into an increase in net exports (if we exclude the net export from the GDP equation, it can be observed an economic recession of -4.8%). Additionally, the net export dynamics was also determined by the cooling consumption amid dramatic drop in remittances and real wages, which led to a drop in imports.

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