The Covid-19 Shock to the Global and European Economy
The Covid-19 Shock to the Global and European Economy

Author(s): Michael Emerson
Subject(s): Supranational / Global Economy, Human Resources in Economy
Published by: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies
Keywords: Covid-19;
Summary/Abstract: I am old enough to recall quite a few global macroeconomic shocks. The first was when Nixon suspended the gold convertibility of the dollar in 1971. Next came the big oil shocks of 1973 and again in 1979. Then the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and end of the USSR in 1991, and so on to the 9/11/2001 jihadist attack on the twin towers in New York. All of these events were perceived at the time as being so serious that no one had any idea what the consequences would be. The unemployment rates now emerging in 2020 may rival the 1930s. The latter was not such a sudden shock, but its ultimate consequences –Nazism and World War II – were so huge and devastating that this comparison must make us think. Indeed the potential consequences of Covid-19 for our democracies has political scientists scrambling to work it out, with no clarity yet.

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