Relevanța Indicelui Compozit Anticipator (ICA) elaborat de Expert-Grup pentru definirea fluctuaţiilor economiei moldoveneşti
The Relevance of the Anticipatory Composite Index (ICA) developed by the Expert Group for defining the fluctuations of the Moldovan economy

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor
Subject(s): National Economy
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Keywords: economic fluctuation; Moldowa GDP;
Summary/Abstract: In April 2012, Expert-Group launched the Anticipatory Composite Index (ICA) of the Moldovan economy - a useful analytical tool for analyzing economic fluctuations, but also for anticipating possible negative shocks. This document comes to complete the initial analysis by extending the period initially included in the calculation of the ICA index, testing the anticipatory properties of the index in relation to the Gross Domestic Product, as well as applying the spectral analysis in order to establish the relevance of the ICA for defining the fluctuations of the Moldovan economy. At the same time, the analysis highlights the latest economic trends revealed by the index and presents the main risks to which the economy of the Republic of Moldova is currently exposed in the context of the economic difficulties in the Euro zone and not only. This document appears with the financial support granted by the Think-Tank Fund, Open Society Institute in Budapest, Hungary

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