Predicting the Unpredictable: Making Sense of Transatlantic Relations for 2025 Post Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024
Predicting the Unpredictable: Making Sense of Transatlantic Relations for 2025 Post Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024

Author(s): Danielle Piatkiewicz, Mateusz M. Piotrowski
Subject(s): Governance, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Politics and communication, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: EUROPEUM - Institut pro evropskou politiku
Keywords: Transatlantic relations; Trump administration; Ukraine reconstruction; NATO enlargement; EU integration; Indo-Pacific strategy; China; economic coercion; election integrity; military aid;
Summary/Abstract: The forum tackled a wide range of topics, starting with the state of global democracy in the wake of a ‘super year’ pivotal election and the rising influence of AI-fueled misinformation and disinformation campaigns. Discussions examined NATO’s and the EU’s enlargement policies, particularly Ukraine’s membership ambitions and their potential impact on EU integration and security. This tied seamlessly into deeper conversations about cooperative efforts for Ukraine’s reconstruction, showcasing shared strategies and resources. Discussions then turned its focus to collective security in an increasingly multipolar world, addressing transatlantic approaches to challenges from major powers like Russia and China, alongside regional issues in the Middle East and Taiwan and emphasized the need for Europe to step up significantly in its own defense and military resources. Sessions also delved into global trade practices and explored the future of transatlantic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing economic resilience and strategies for de-risking. This policy paper compiles the key insights and deliberations from the Forum, which adhered to the Chatham House Rule to protect participant confidentiality. Based on the engaging discussions, this paper offers a comprehensive set of takeaways, including actionable recommendations and a strategic “To-Do list” for the transatlantic alliance in the coming years.

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