The role of Bulgarian media in public life came under scrutiny after several media outlets were used as an instrument for triggering political crises and for political engineering (2013 – 2014). At that time, the Bulgarian media market was experiencing the impact of two negative trends. On the one hand, the economic crisis of 2009 – 2013 had cut advertising revenues by half. On the other, the old models of media financing were diminished by the use of digital technologies and the explosive growth of social networks and mobile communications. The loss of financial sustainability by the media presented unique opportunities for Bulgarian oligarchic groups. By accumulating a significant share of the media market, they reached an unprecedented level of political influence (including direct influence on the legislative, executive and judicial powers). The media was used as an instrument for state capture that could present severe security and economic risks.
More...For all criminal offences related to drugs, even for possession of small quantities intended for personal use, the main sanction according to Bulgarian criminal law is imprisonment. Unlike in Norway, non-custodial penalties in Bulgaria such as probation have extremely limited scope of application for drug-related offences. At the same time, other alternatives to imprisonment are virtually non-existent.
More...The policy brief analyses the energy security and governance risks. The authors underline that: - Bulgarian ranking has improved significantly, jumping from 73rd to 58th place, narrowing the gap with the average OECD results. - Since Bulgaria receives all of its natural gas from one source and via one pipeline, it is imperative that the government’s decisions for the initiation of future energy projects are based on the projects’ potential to diversify supply sources and ensure an uninterrupted energy supply. - The efforts to diversify the gas supply by building the Interconnector Greece - Bulgaria (IGB) have stalled in spite of external financing, existing contractual obligations with the Shah Deniz consortium and due to lack of administrative capacity and state capture from domestic and foreign interests. - The European Commission’s efforts to integrate the SEE region into the EU internal market and diversify its gas supply away from a single supplier have started to pay off. The liberalization of the cross-border capacities along the Transbalkan pipeline, previously fully reserved by Gazprom, is now open for competitive bidding. - The liberalization of regional natural gas trading and the completion of the interconnector pipelines with Greece and Romania would advance Bulgaria’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Gazprom by reducing the country’s gas import costs, and improve the country’s security of supply and the affordability of residential gasification initiatives.
More...In Bulgaria the high level of hidden economy undermines the economic development of the country and requires serious and persistent political attention. The unprecedented growth in the field of digitization of economic activities, the convergence between some of them, and the emergence of brand new services creates an opportunity for achieving a desirable environment, which may reduce the hidden cash flows and boost the economic development of the country. Comprehensive reforms focused on the functioning of the market mechanisms and administrative effectiveness are needed in order to promote the process of economic convergence within the European Union and limit the harmful effects of the hidden economy in Bulgaria.
More...Keywords: CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Russia; Influence; Central and Eastern Europe
The topic of Russia’s influence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has grown in significance after the eruption of the Ukrainian crisis in 2013. The US and EU policy and research communities have scrambled to explain the potential scenarios, tools, and impacts of the Russian influence, as well as propose possible solutions to minimizing its negative effects on European unity. This policy brief, which summarizes the key findings from the joint study of the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe, presents a model for understanding the impact of Russia’s economic influence in Central and Eastern Europe in five case study countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Serbia, and Slovakia), and its relationship to the region’s general decline in governance standards. The study estimates that on average, Russia’s economic footprint in five of the most targeted by the Kremlin CEE countries has ranged from about 11 percent of the economy (in the cases of Hungary and Slovakia) to an astonishing 22 percent in Bulgaria. After 2008 the Russian leadership has aggressively deployed its resource-based resurgent economic power in combination with old time security networks and skillful use of traditional soft power appeal to exploit and further strategic vulnerabilities across the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Russia has also cultivated an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making. This web resembles a network-flow model, which we describe as an “unvirtuous circle” of Russian influence leading to “state capture.”
More...Keywords: CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Dynamics; Conventional; Crime; Bulgaria
Crime rates in 2015 continue their downward trend with a decrease of 0.4% compared to 2014 levels. It must be noted, however, that the level of reporting crime to the authorities falls compared to officially registered numbers by the MoI in 2015. This means that latent crime is on the rise, which signifies a drop in public confidence in the MoI. One of the main reason for this discrepancy are the so-called police filters, which lead to diverging levels of officially recorded conventional crimes and crimes reported by the citizenry. These are some of the results of the National Crime Survey for 2015, presented in the current publication.
More...Keywords: CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Turkey; EU; Energy Union: Energy; Security; Governance; Risk
The successful creation of a European energy union will not be possible without the active involvement of Turkey. The latter is going to play a vital role as the major transit country of future alternative natural gas supply from the Caspian region and the Middle East. Similarly, Turkey will benefit from the development of the Energy Union because it can transform itself in a major energy-trading hub, Turkey’s long-term energy policy objective. The EU and Turkey also share a common objective to diminish their dependence on Russian energy imports, which could provide a necessary boost to the formal energy dialogue between the two partners in January 2016.
More...Keywords: CSD; CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Radicalisation; Extremism; Europe;
Over the last decade, radicalisation and extremism have become issues of particular concern for Europe. New risks of Islamist and far-right radicalisation have impelled the introduction of policies, the effects of which are only now being evaluated. As radicalisation that risks escalating into violence is more amenable to prevention than repression, having the capacity to detect early warning signs and trace the spread of extremist activity over time is critical. This brief outlines a set of methodologies for monitoring the risk of radicalisation and the trends in extremism based on an integrated approach to the indicators being monitored and the institutional mechanism doing the monitoring. These methodologies are designed to equip stakeholders – both governmental and non-governmental – with a tool which fuses a broad range of informational inputs; it will enable informed formulation of prevention and counter-radicalisation policies.
More...Keywords: CSD; CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Extortion; racketeering
Extortion racketeering has long been pointed out as the defining activity of organised crime. It has also been identified as one of the most effective tools used by organised crime in the accumulation of financial resources and the penetration of the legal economy. Although in recent years this crime has not been among the top listed organised crime threats in the strategic EU policy documents, it still remains ever present in European countries. The seriousness of the phenomenon has been recognised at the EU level and the crime has been listed in a number of EU legal acts in the field of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters.
More...The policy brief focuses on the impact of the governemnt measures put forward to counter the economic crisis and their effect on the hidden economy. The hidden economy has been a central topic for discussion in the public space upon each amendment to the economic legislation and particularly before elections or the passing of the national budget. Nevertheless, aside from the Annual Hidden Economy Index released by the Center for the Study of Democracy and a few sporadic analyses by other non-governmental, academic and business organizations, there is a lack of an adequate government system of ex ante and ex post impact assessment of the proposed measures to fight hidden activities of the wider economy. The adjustments of GDP done by the National Statistical Institute aiming to include hidden economy in the system of national accounts are not made public and do not serve as a basis for decision-making. Thus, public debates on hidden economy become little more than displays of rhetorical skills or actually serve completely different agendas rather than the implementation of measures to curb its negative impact.
More...Organized crime in Bulgaria is quick to adapt to the new realities and by and large enters the legal economy by legalizing capital accrued from criminal activities. This process poses a significant threat to the country: while in developed democracies money-laundering is carried out through the complex financial operations or investments in the legal economy (for instance through the purchasing of real estate and movables), in Bulgaria money-laundering takes on a specific form – political investment. The policy brief makes an overview of the organized crime, corruption and money-laundering in Bulgaria. According to the authors, in spite of several legislative initiatives and a growing amount of prosecutorial decrees for money-laundering in the last decade, the prosecution for this type of crime in Bulgaria remains insignificant. The complexity of the crime, the objective difficulties for its investigation, as well as the necessary inter-institutional approach on an international level to combat such activities explain the relatively small number of prosecutions.
More...The brief "The Energy Sector of Bulgaria" is elaborated jointly by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Atlantic Council of US. It presents the main challenges that the energy sector in Bulgaria faces. By virtue of its geography, Bulgaria finds itself in a difficult nexus, drawn into Eurasia’s contentious energy geopolitics and as a European Union member, involved in the Union’s fragmented energy policy and complex regulatory, energy efficiency and climate change objectives. That position is challenging, but it also presents decision-makers in Sofia with opportunities.
More...Measured by using market currency exchange rates, Bulgaria has consistently ranked as the most energy intensive economy in the EU: in 2007, it used over a ton of oil equivalent to produce 1,000 Euro worth of gross product. Measured by using purchasing power parity, Bulgaria’s energy intensity is still dismal, around 600 kg of oil equivalent per 1,000 Euro of product. Even though still negligible by any standard, Bulgaria’s energy efficiency has actually improved by about 50% since 1996 and has been on an uninterrupted path to a change for the better by about 5% per year. Overall, the Bulgarian economy seems to have completed the transition from heavy industry to less energy intensive light industry and thus already picked the low hanging fruit of natural gains in efficiency. The country is probably at a point, as some experts argue, from which onwards any additional gain in efficiency will have to be attained through advances in technologies of energy production, conversion, transportation, and use which will call for cost-effective approach and a strong incentive system.
More...Main purpose of this study is to review and discuss the development of regulation at EU level to guide corresponding national legislation and policies designed to address the challenges of sustainable development, notably those on the environment dimension and as regards to the most relevant economic sector – energy. The paper will briefly examine the development of the idea and strategy for sustainable development in Europe over time, the concrete EU legislation and instruments to facilitate national policies to support such development.
More...During the past decade organised crime threats have taken on an increasing importance and have become central to the national and EU policy debates on domestic security and citizen safety. The dynamics of globalisation combined with the dismantlement of the Iron Curtain in the heart of Europe led to growing cross-border flows of people, goods, money and information. On the other hand East European transition was marked from its start by a fast rise of criminality, which soon translated into unprecedented levels of transnational organised crime across Europe. Further to that the growing complexity of financial markets created opportunities for white collar criminals, adding some hitherto unknown criminal phenomena.
More...The European Commission (EC) contracted the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) to analyse the links between organised crime and corruption. The main objectives of the study were to identify: • causes and factors that engender corruption by organised crime (including white-collar criminals); • the scope and the impact of that corruption on society and institutions; • organised crime’s main corruption schemes, the areas or risks they create, and the related differences amongst European Union (EU) Member States (MS); • best practices in prevention and countering corruption linked to organized crime; framework for a future assessment of trends in the link between organized crime and corruption, as well as corresponding counter measures.
More...Thе policy brief presents the dynamics and the components of the Hidden Economy Index 2010. It also examines the recent trends in the Bulgarian economic development and expected effects on the informal sector. The dynamics of the hidden economy is an important indicator of the state of a country’s institutions as well as of its competitive potential. The hidden economy has a serious impact on private sector activities, the productivity and competitiveness of the workforce, on economic development and growth, as well as the social security and support systems of the country. According to different estimates about a third of the world’s GDP is within the “shadow turnover”. It is argued that the current financial and economic crisis will result in an increase in the hidden economy in most European countries. The recent debt crisis in Greece has exposed drastically the need to better account for and to grasp the implications of the existence on large hidden economy on economic performance. This is even more pressing in the light of achieving Europe 2020 results and calculating each country’s contribution to the European Stability Mechanism and the Euro Plus Pact.
More...The policy brief presents the results of a survey of the public trust in the police and the courts in Bulgaria, the public perceptions of the level of corruption in these institutions and the fear of crime in the Bulgarian society. Of all the EU member states, Bulgaria is the country whose citizens are the least satisfied with the performance of the main government institutions. Trust in the main institutions concerned with criminal justice – the police and courts, is low and has remained practically unchanged over the last decade. At the end of 2010, a positive evaluation of police performance was given by less than half of the country’s adult population and barely one in five gave a favorable opinion of the courts. The low public trust in the courts and police can also be accounted for by the high level of corruption in these institutions. It is also conducive to public attitudes of insecurity and the society begins to perceive crime as an inherent part of reality rather than a problem that can actually be addressed. A state’s penal policy can only produce results if sufficient attention is paid to trust, legitimacy, and security. It is therefore recommended to adopt a system of indicators for the assessment of public trust in criminal justice.
More...The economic crisis and the increased threats from terrorism, organised crime and illegal migration have brought to light the issue of efficient and effective management of the external borders of the European Union. For Bulgaria it has become even more important with regard to its upcoming accession to the Schengen area.
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