Publisher: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych

Britain's Global Strategy: Multiple Priorities vs. Limited Resources

Britain's Global Strategy: Multiple Priorities vs. Limited Resources

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; United Kingdom; Global Britain

With its withdrawal from the EU, the United Kingdom was faced with the need to radically rethink its position in the world. The vision of and slogan “Global Britain”, which dominated the message of the Conservatives governing the country since 2010, was finally specified in the strategic documents from 2021-23. However, Britain faces challenges with securing the necessary resources to implement this ambitious global strategy. Achieving the set goals has been hindered by, among others, internal disputes about the model of relations with the EU and more generally the scale of involvement in Europe compared to other macro-regions, as well as economic and budgetary policies. One of the main problems is the reluctance to increase defence spending significantly above 2% of GDP despite the expansion of declared aims in this field.

UK Signs Security Agreement with Ukraine

UK Signs Security Agreement with Ukraine

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; Ukraine; G7

During his visit to Kyiv on 12 January, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed a bilateral agreement on security cooperation between the United Kingdom and Ukraine with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The UK is the first of the G7 countries to enter into such an agreement with Ukraine, pledging long-term support in the fight against Russia. While accession to NATO is what Ukraine is aiming for, agreements with G7 countries may in future become a necessary alternative for Ukraine to ensure its security versus membership of the Alliance.

Taiwan Seeks Continuity After the Elections

Taiwan Seeks Continuity After the Elections

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Taiwan; Lai Ching-te; Democratic Progressive Party

On 13 January, Taiwan held presidential and parliamentary elections. Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency. The DPP, however, lost the majority in the unicameral parliament, which will make governing more difficult. China, which is hostile in particular to the DPP, will continue hybrid warfare against it. The announcement of a continuation of policy and the election of Hsiao Bi-khim as vice-president will stabilise Taiwan-U.S. relations. Lai also wants to continue cooperation with Europe to diversify Taiwan’s relations and reduce its dependence on China.

The World According to China: The Chinese Plans for a New International Community

The World According to China: The Chinese Plans for a New International Community

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; New International Community

China recently published a number of documents presenting its initiatives to the international community in which the PRC’s policy is to guarantee the stability, development, and increased importance of developing countries. In practice, these ideas are an attempt by the Chinese to build a new international order in which China holds a strong position as a counterweight to the U.S. The documents have received interest from countries of the Global South, which mainly see the ideas as elements of limiting the influence of the West. The reaction of the EU and the U.S. to China’s activities should be expressed both in the spheres of security and development, as well as in increasing the political role of developing countries in the global order, including international organisations.

UK Returns to Space Cooperation with the EU

UK Returns to Space Cooperation with the EU

Author(s): Aleksandra Kozioł / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; EU; EU’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus

The agreement to associate the UK into the EU’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus breaks the post-Brexit deadlock on the issue. It demonstrates the importance of European space cooperation in the face of increasing global competition. The agreement will strengthen further Copernicus development. It could also provide an incentive to coordinate space security activities between the EU and the UK.

Israel Remains Firm on Gaza Operations 100 Days After Start of War Against Hamas

Israel Remains Firm on Gaza Operations 100 Days After Start of War Against Hamas

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Gaza; Israel; Hamas

In the course of its ground operation in Gaza, since October, Israel has still not achieved its declared strategic objectives of defeating Hamas and freeing hostages. The withdrawal of some forces from the northern Gaza Strip, which began at the start of the new year, will do little to improve the current humanitarian situation for the civilian population given the continuing intensity of fighting in Hamas-controlled areas. Despite growing international pressure for a ceasefire, the Israeli government is trying to maintain its current strategy in the conflict with Hamas.

Belgium Takes Over Presidency of the Council of the European Union

Belgium Takes Over Presidency of the Council of the European Union

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: the Council of the European Union; the European Parliament

On 1 January, Belgium took over the six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union (the Council) from Spain. Its programme assumes the finalisation or continuation of the most important projects undertaken by the EU institutions before the end of the 9th term of the European Parliament (2019-2024), e.g., the debate on EU reform, the financial support program for Ukraine, the migration and asylum package, or the green transformation. The Presidency also wants to build consensus among member states regarding the reform of the EU financing system. The country supports the actions to further tighten integration and strengthen the competences of EU institutions.

Development of Small Modular Reactors in the EU on the Horizon

Development of Small Modular Reactors in the EU on the Horizon

Author(s): Tymon Pastucha / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; small modular reactor; new nuclear architecture

There is growing political support in the European Union for developing small modular reactor (SMR) technology as part of the concept of building a new nuclear architecture. SMRs can potentially become an important element of the EU’s technological sovereignty, combining low-carbon reindustrialisation with an efficient energy transition in the long to medium term. The opportunity to develop SMRs in the Union will require aligning regulation, increasing funding at the EU level, and improving the competitiveness of EU projects vis-à-vis the U.S. The anticipated launch of the first SMR is expected to occur in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

Republicans Split on U.S. Support for Ukraine

Republicans Split on U.S. Support for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Republicans

Republicans are divided over support for Ukraine. Supporters of its continuation, who make up the majority of the party, are seeking more influence in the public debate. But the ongoing campaign ahead of the presidential and congressional elections, dominated by the voices of sceptics, is making it difficult to change the mood among conservative voters. The use of anti-Ukrainian slogans in the campaign may cause the number of supporters of aid to Ukraine in Congress to shrink after this November’s elections.

Ethiopia Seeking to Regain Access to the Sea

Ethiopia Seeking to Regain Access to the Sea

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Republic of Somaliland; Somalia; Ethiopia

The president of the unrecognised Republic of Somaliland, an integral part of Somalia under international law, has agreed to lease 20 km of coastline to landlocked Ethiopia for a naval base and commercial port. In return, Ethiopia would be the first country in the world to formally recognise Somaliland. The Somali government considers this a hostile act and threatens to take retaliatory measures. The conflict is likely to consolidate the de facto division of Somalia and complicates the security situation around key maritime trade routes.

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance Mounts a New Populist Challenge in Germany

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance Mounts a New Populist Challenge in Germany

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance; Die Linke

On 8 January, a new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) “Reason and Justice”, was officially formed by some Die Linke activists. The formation combines calls to expand social benefits and the welfare state with demands to curb migration to Germany and criticism of the cultural and social changes taking place. BSW will be a political threat to both Die Linke and Alternative for Germany (AfD). Its electoral success will depend on attracting voters away from these parties and its ability to quickly build structures in all Bundesländer.

Poland in the eyes of Germans

Poland in the eyes of Germans

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The overall goal of this project, the results of which are presented in this report, was to obtain an up-to-date picture of public attitudes and sentiments toward Poland and its people, as well as the level of familiarity with Polish history and the present state of affairs. At the same time, the research attempted to assess German public perceptions on the scale of convergence concerning Polish and German interests in the political, security and economic spheres.

NATO Countries Respond to Russia's Instrumentalisation of Migration

NATO Countries Respond to Russia's Instrumentalisation of Migration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; NATO; NATO’s Eastern Flank

The use of migration as an instrument of influence will continue to be one of the most important types of hybrid action used by Russia against the countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank in upcoming years. It is therefore in their interest to develop a common approach to such threats. Enhanced cooperation, including counter-intelligence, speed of action, and demonstration of determination to defend their borders, including the threat of complete closure, will be important elements of it.

The European Union in the Face of Russia's Aggression against Ukraine

The European Union in the Face of Russia's Aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Russia; war; Ukraine

“There is abundant literature in the field of European studies on how the European Union shapes its external environment. But there is also greater need for an in-depth reflection on how the European Union’s environment shapes its functioning, activities and effectiveness in the international area. Any attempt to grasp multidimensional and long-term consequences of Russian aggression toward the evolution of the European integration process, especially in the context of the ongoing debate on reforms and the future of the European Union, certainly deserves recognition.”

Gaza War Burdens Vulnerable Situation in Lebanon

Gaza War Burdens Vulnerable Situation in Lebanon

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hezbollah; Gaza

Hezbollah is using the Gaza war to step up pressure on Israel in existing territorial disputes. At the same time, Lebanese opposition to their country’s inclusion in the war with Israel is prompting Hezbollah to become less involved. However, this may change if there are additional Israeli attacks beyond the border territories.

Israel Ordered to Prevent Genocide in the Gaza Strip

Israel Ordered to Prevent Genocide in the Gaza Strip

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Gaza Strip

In an order on provisional measures dated 26 January, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel to prevent acts of genocide in the Gaza Strip and to improve the humanitarian situation there. In doing so, it partially granted the request by South Africa in the proceedings it initiated against Israel at the end of December 2023. However, the order does not mean a cessation of hostilities or an end to the case, with the differing assessments of it providing further evidence that the international community’s attitudes towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue to be divided for at least a few more years.

Canada Seeking New Forms of Assistance to Ukraine

Canada Seeking New Forms of Assistance to Ukraine

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Canada’s Armed Forces; NATO

Challenges related to weapons types and arms production for Canada’s Armed Forces, as well as a growing internal political debate, means that further aid to Ukraine will likely decrease over the next several years. Canada will likely compensate for this by modifying its strategy towards Ukraine to long-term engagement while increasing its involvement in NATO.

Türkiye Approves Sweden's Accession to NATO

Türkiye Approves Sweden's Accession to NATO

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Turkey

On 23 January, after a bilateral crisis that lasted from May 2022 to the new year, the Turkish parliament finally approved Sweden’s membership of NATO. In unlocking the enlargement, Türkiye expects more political and security support from the other NATO members, primarily the U.S.