Series:ESI Reports

VLADIMIR AND ESTRAGON IN SKOPJE. A fictional Conversation on Trust and Standards and a Plea on how to break a Vicious Circle

VLADIMIR AND ESTRAGON IN SKOPJE. A fictional Conversation on Trust and Standards and a Plea on how to break a Vicious Circle

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU enlargement; EU pre-accession process; Macedonia;

The process of European enlargement faces a serious and deepening crisis. Trust in enlargement policy is declining everywhere: in EU member states, in candidate countries, among those who govern and those in opposition. || … || So how can enlargement policy break out of its vicious circle? How can it restore its credibility and popularity with EU publics and recapture the imagination of reformers in accession countries?The process of European enlargement faces a serious and deepening crisis. Trust in enlargement policy is declining everywhere: in EU member states, in candidate countries, among those who govern and those in opposition. || … || So how can enlargement policy break out of its vicious circle? How can it restore its credibility and popularity with EU publics and recapture the imagination of reformers in accession countries? || … || This report is about understanding this dilemma in the context of Macedonia, a country that highlights all these problems of fairness and strictness. The dialogue presented here is fiction. It is, however, based on almost one hundred interviews with Macedonian’s in all walks of life, from the country’s leading politicians to local officials and small entrepreneurs.

PROTESTS and ILLUSIONS. How Bosnia and Herzegovina lost a decade

PROTESTS and ILLUSIONS. How Bosnia and Herzegovina lost a decade

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Tuzla, Bihac; Polihem; Elektroprivreda; privatization in Bosnia;

On 7 February 2014 violence broke out in Tuzla, the regional capital of Tuzla Canton in Northern Bosnia. War veterans, unemployed youth and football supporters of the local club took to the streets. The core group of protestors were former workers in socially owned enterprises who had been demonstrating to save their companies for more than a decade. Demonstrators entered the cantonal government building and set it on fire. The same day violent clashes spread to other Bosnian cities, Zenica, Sarajevo, Mostar and Bihac. Three more cantonal buildings and the state archive in Sarajevo all went up in flames. Already on 7 February Tuzla protestors published a declaration that stated that “Today in Tuzla a new future is being created.” (a Bosnian writer)

WHY KOSOVO NEEDS MIGRATION. From research to policy

WHY KOSOVO NEEDS MIGRATION. From research to policy

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo economic development; Cerrce; Lubishte;

In 2005 ESI undertook research on rural poverty, migration and remittances in Kosovo. Our conclusions were published in 2006 in a report called “Cutting the Lifeline” that showed how migration had been a necessity for many generations of young men in particular. The report also examined how after 1999, the European doors to legal work migration closed, and only the lucky few with close family in the diaspora could migrate through family reunification schemes. In the report, we described in detail the economic realities of two villages that are representative of the wider social and economic situation in Kosovo: Cerrce, located in north-west Kosovo on the border with Albania, and Lubishte, situated in the mountainous southeast. Our findings clearly showed that economic development, without significant numbers of people leaving such villages to find work, skills and capital elsewhere, is simply inconceivable. || In the decade after our research was concluded little has changed anywhere in Kosovo. In 2005 a Labour Force Survey showed an employment rate of only 29 percent among 15 to 64 year olds (and only 12 percent among women). The 2013 Labour Force Survey was no less dramatic, with an employment rate of 28.4 percent (12.9 percent among women). Close to ninety percent of adult women are not working and have no prospect of ever finding a job.

TEACHING WAR. How Croatian schoolbooks changed and why it matters. – Textbook series – part one

TEACHING WAR. How Croatian schoolbooks changed and why it matters. – Textbook series – part one

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report describes how the clash between different approaches to history education has played out in Croatian history textbooks. Until 2000, there was only one nationalist textbook in use, presenting a one-sided image of Croatia’s war history, both in the Second World War and in the conflicts that followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia. By 2013, when Croatia acceded to the EU, teachers could choose between four textbooks, which offered a much more nuanced picture. This reflected wider changes in how Croats viewed themselves, how they defined citizenship and how they saw their relationship with their neighbours and their Orthodox Serb minority.

MONTENEGRO: GERMANY’S BALKAN STIPENds – Asylum and the Rožaje exodus

MONTENEGRO: DEUTSCHLANDS BALKANSTIPENDIEN – Asyl und der Rožaje-Exodus

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): German

Keywords: emigration from Montenegro; Asylum; Rožaje;

In 2015, many Montenegrins went directly to the Braunschweig reception centre; when an NGO visited it in June it met hundreds of people from northern Montenegro. There, Halima and her relatives filled out a form. They provided personal data and fingerprints. They did not have to explain then why they applied for asylum (they did this in an interview a few weeks later, referring to their desperate economic situation). They spent the first three days in the reception centre, before being taken to a hostel. Two weeks later, they were assigned a house in a village near Bremen. A social worker visited them regularly to see how they were doing; there were bikes provided for them to move around. In late August, they were allocated a house with two floors in a small town closer to a kindergarten for Halima’s daughter. “It is equipped with modern household appliances and there is even a garden,” they told relatives in their village. In addition to free housing and health care, the five receive a total of € 1,290 per month. This is more than five times the monthly salary in the private sector in their municipality. It means even more for them; in their village, almost nobody has a job and many households do not get any social aid.

THE EUROPEAN SWAMP. (CAVIAR DIPLOMACY Part 2) Prosecutors, corruption and the Council of Europe

THE EUROPEAN SWAMP. (CAVIAR DIPLOMACY Part 2) Prosecutors, corruption and the Council of Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Council opf Europe; corruption; Human Rights watch;

Can basic international norms be undermined by corruption? Can international politics be fundamentally reshaped by the personal greed of politicians? These are among the most important questions in global politics today. When it comes to the Council of Europe, guardian of the European Convention of Human Rights and, since its creation in 1949, the leading intergovernmental human rights institution in the world, the answer to both questions is yes.In this follow-up to Caviar Diplomacy, we take a closer look, four years later, at the progress that has been made on miring the Council of Europe in a swamp of corruption. This time we provide the names of members of the parliamentary assembly who paid bribes – including Elkhan Suleymanov, the mastermind behind this policy in Strasbourg. We describe in detail how the corruption of MPs proceeded, from early visits with precious gifts meant to test the beneficiaries’ reactions, to long-term contracts involving huge sums of money. In the third part in this series we will offer specific recommendations for what to do next.

THE EUROPEAN SWAMP. (CAVIAR DIPLOMACY Part 2) Prosecutors, corruption and the Council of Europe

EL PANTANO EUROPEO. (DIPLOMACIA DEL CAVIAR Parte 2) Fiscales, corrupción y el Consejo de Europa

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Spanish

Keywords: Council of Europe; corruption; human rights watch;

Can basic international norms be undermined by corruption? Can international politics be fundamentally reshaped by the personal greed of politicians? These are among the most important questions in global politics today. When it comes to the Council of Europe, guardian of the European Convention of Human Rights and, since its creation in 1949, the leading intergovernmental human rights institution in the world, the answer to both questions is yes.In this follow-up to Caviar Diplomacy, we take a closer look, four years later, at the progress that has been made on miring the Council of Europe in a swamp of corruption. This time we provide the names of members of the parliamentary assembly who paid bribes – including Elkhan Suleymanov, the mastermind behind this policy in Strasbourg. We describe in detail how the corruption of MPs proceeded, from early visits with precious gifts meant to test the beneficiaries’ reactions, to long-term contracts involving huge sums of money. In the third part in this series we will offer specific recommendations for what to do next.

THE EUROPEAN SWAMP. (CAVIAR DIPLOMACY Part 2) Prosecutors, corruption and the Council of Europe

AVRUPA BATAKLIĞI. (HAVYAR DİPLOMASİSİ 2. BÖLÜM) Savcılar, Yolsuzluk ve Avrupa Konseyi

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Turkish

Keywords: Council of Europe; corruption; Human Rights Watch;

Can basic international norms be undermined by corruption? Can international politics be fundamentally reshaped by the personal greed of politicians? These are among the most important questions in global politics today. When it comes to the Council of Europe, guardian of the European Convention of Human Rights and, since its creation in 1949, the leading intergovernmental human rights institution in the world, the answer to both questions is yes.In this follow-up to Caviar Diplomacy, we take a closer look, four years later, at the progress that has been made on miring the Council of Europe in a swamp of corruption. This time we provide the names of members of the parliamentary assembly who paid bribes – including Elkhan Suleymanov, the mastermind behind this policy in Strasbourg. We describe in detail how the corruption of MPs proceeded, from early visits with precious gifts meant to test the beneficiaries’ reactions, to long-term contracts involving huge sums of money. In the third part in this series we will offer specific recommendations for what to do next.

“HANG THEM IN TAKSIM” Europe, Turkey and the Future of the Death Penalty

“HANG THEM IN TAKSIM” Europe, Turkey and the Future of the Death Penalty

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Death Penalty in Turkey; Human Rights in Turkey; Council of Europe; Recep Tayyip Erdogan;

For almost a year now, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed, in speech after speech, that he is ready to restore the death penalty. Some have dismissed this as political theatre. And yet, Turkey would not be the first country to reintroduce the death penalty after it had fallen out of use. The Kingdom of Italy abolished the death penalty for civilians in 1889, only to see it reintroduced by Mussolini in 1930. The United States did not carry out any executions between 1968 and 1980. Turkey itself has had years of de facto moratoria on executions in the 1960s and 1970s, before carrying out more executions. Human rights progress is never irreversible. || This is a matter of holding the line on a hard-won human rights achievement. It is in the vital interest of all Europeans that this red line is not crossed anywhere in Europe. For Turkey to reintroduce the death penalty – the last execution took place in 1984 – would constitute a serious setback in the global struggle against capital punishment. Europeans should take the threat of the return of capital punishment in Turkey seriously. The EU and the Council of Europe should take every step they can, in time, to make this as unlikely as possible – in Turkey and anywhere else in Europe.

A ROME PLAN FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN MIGRATION CRISIS. The case for take-back realism

A ROME PLAN FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN MIGRATION CRISIS. The case for take-back realism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: right of asylum; refugees; EU and refugees; border management;

The European Union urgently needs a credible policy on asylum and border management. It must combine effective control of external land and sea borders with respect for existing international and EU refugee law. || Such a policy must deter irregular migration of those who do not qualify for protection. It must treat asylum seekers respectfully. It must respect the fundamental norm of the rule of rescue - not to push individuals in need into danger - which is at the heart of the UN Refugee Convention (non-refoulement). Such a plan can replace the current Dublin procedures whose reform is currently being debated in the EU with no prospect for a successful outcome. What the EU needs instead is a Rome Plan for the Mediterranean: effective, humane, and politically viable. || This plan must also recognise a basic truth that holds for Italy and for other EU countries: EU countries are bad at returning third country nationals who do not qualify for protection. This is largely because most poor countries in the world have little interest in taking back their own citizens, who often send remittances. There is an urgent need for return realism.

WINE, DOG FOOD AND BOSNIAN CLICHÉS. False ideas and why they matter

WINE, DOG FOOD AND BOSNIAN CLICHÉS. False ideas and why they matter

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: development of Bosnia Herzegovina; democracy of Bosnia; failed Democracy;

In 2008 the former High Representative Paddy Ashdown warned that “there is a real threat of Bosnia breaking up again … even a brief spell of wrong-headedness can quickly become the prelude to enduring tragedy.” In 2011 Ashdown warned the EU that unless it acted decisively, “bloodshed will return to Bosnia.” In 2013 two US-based analysts warned that Bosnia remained “at war” and that “the dynamics of war-era polarization still rage, captive to venal leadership and a defunct constitutional order.” In May 2015 an article in Foreign Policy argued that Bosnia faces “deeper and nearly irreparable injury.” In November 2015 Ashdown warned about “things going to become worse”, with the “potential for a dangerous and even tragical situation. || Clichés are terrible guides to action. They distort how other countries deal with Bosnia. They led the EU to conclude for many years, against actual experience, that Bosnian leaders were incapable of coordinating their responses to EU conditionality. Clichés divert limited attention from real problems and how to form reform coalitions to address them. It is time to take a closer look.

WINE, DOG FOOD AND BOSNIAN CLICHÉS. False ideas and why they matter

VINO, PSEĆA HRANA I KLIŠEJI O BIH. Pogrešne ideje i zašto su važne

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: defunct constitutional order; Bosnian democracy;

In 2008 the former High Representative Paddy Ashdown warned that “there is a real threat of Bosnia breaking up again … even a brief spell of wrong-headedness can quickly become the prelude to enduring tragedy.” In 2011 Ashdown warned the EU that unless it acted decisively, “bloodshed will return to Bosnia.” In 2013 two US-based analysts warned that Bosnia remained “at war” and that “the dynamics of war-era polarization still rage, captive to venal leadership and a defunct constitutional order.” In May 2015 an article in Foreign Policy argued that Bosnia faces “deeper and nearly irreparable injury.” In November 2015 Ashdown warned about “things going to become worse”, with the “potential for a dangerous and even tragical situation. || Clichés are terrible guides to action. They distort how other countries deal with Bosnia. They led the EU to conclude for many years, against actual experience, that Bosnian leaders were incapable of coordinating their responses to EU conditionality. Clichés divert limited attention from real problems and how to form reform coalitions to address them. It is time to take a closer look.

WHERE THE LAW ENDS. The collapse of the rule of law in Poland – and what to do

WHERE THE LAW ENDS. The collapse of the rule of law in Poland – and what to do

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: polish justice system; Jaroslaw Kaczynski; Andrzej Duda; Zbigniew Ziobro;

No member state of the EU has ever gone as far in subjugating its courts to executive control as the current Polish government has done. The Polish case is a test whether it is possible to create a Soviet-style justice system, where the control of courts, prosecutors and judges lies with the executive and a single party, in an EU member state. || The Polish government’s assault on its judiciary represents a threat to the EU’s legal order and long-term political stability. The EU and national legal orders are now so intertwined as to make up a single patchwork quilt, from which so great a hole cannot be cut, without the whole unravelling. 328 years ago, the great English philosopher John Locke noted that “wherever the law ends, tyranny begins.” Poland is at this threshold now. The stakes could not be higher. The outcome of this conflict will determine whether the EU has a future as a community based on the rule of law.

UNDER SIEGE. Why Polish courts matter for Europe

UNDER SIEGE. Why Polish courts matter for Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: rule of law; independent judiciary;

2018 marked a turning point for the rule of law in Europe. In a landmark verdict in February concerning a salary dispute of judges in Portugal the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in Luxembourg established a fundamental principle: that, as the ultimate guardian of the rule of law across the EU, it has the obligation to ensure that all citizens of the union enjoy effective judicial protection in their national courts. || … || By successfully bringing the law on the Supreme Court in 2018 to the Court of Justice of the European Union the European Commission showed that the EU is not helpless when its foundations are undermined. It proved that there is a powerful instrument to protect the rule of law. It restored hope to all European citizens who care about the fundamental values the EU rests upon. Let the successful defense of the rule of law be the lasting historic legacy of the Juncker Commission.

THE HYPNOTIST. Aleksandar Vucic, John Bolton and the return of the past

THE HYPNOTIST. Aleksandar Vucic, John Bolton and the return of the past

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Democracy; Serbian transformnation; Aleksandar Vucic; Greater Serbia; territory exchange;

It is remarkable how little change there has been in the key personnel in Serbian politics since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. It is not surprising, therefore, that the old nationalist idea of redrawing borders on the basis of ethnicity has continued to be so prominent. What is surprising is the recent success that Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic has had in repackaging this old idea as progressive, non-conventional, out-of-the-box thinking. Why not, the siren song goes (again), adjust some borders along ethnic lines, as long as the process is negotiated peacefully and leads to reconciliation? || In addition, to remain credible in Pristina, European countries should take two long overdue steps: to lift the visa requirement for Kosovo citizens, as the European Commission and the European Parliament have recommended; and to support Kosovo in applying and joining the Council of Europe, with protection of minorities in Kosovo a key requirement of post-accession monitoring. || The EU also needs to send a strong signal to countries and leaders who reach out to their neighbours and minorities and resolve difficult issues in a true spirit of reconciliation. The strongest signal would be to begin accession talks with North Macedonia without delay in summer 2019.

POLAND’S DEEPENING CRISIS. When the rule of law dies in Europe

POLAND’S DEEPENING CRISIS. When the rule of law dies in Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: independency of judiciary; Polish reform of judiciary; Jarosław Kaczyński; Lukasz Piebiak; Stanislaw Piotrowicz;

No member state in the history of the EU has ever gone as far in subjugating its courts to executive control as the current Polish government. The Polish case has become a test whether it is possible to create a Soviet-style justice system in an EU member state; a system where the control of courts, prosecutors and judges lies with the executive and a single party. || What is at stake in Poland today is the future of the EU as a project based on core principles such as the rule of law, separation of powers and human rights. The stakes for all Europeans could not be higher.

HAMSTER IN THE WHEEL. Credibility and EU Balkan policy

HAMSTER IN THE WHEEL. Credibility and EU Balkan policy

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; EU-enalrgement;

Balkan enlargement was in crisis even before EU leaders failed to agree in 2019 on opening accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania. Unless there is a change in methodology and pace, no Western Balkan country is likely to be a member of the EU by 2030. || Carrying out the reforms needed to join the Single Market and to join the EU has been phenomenally beneficial for peripheral economies. Catching up is possible. North Macedonia today is at the level of development where Lithuania was in 1999. Serbia today is where Estonia was in 1999. Bosnia 2018 is the Romania of 1999. Countries can change. Enlargement policy can have a major impact. For this is must be credible, merit based and serious. It has happened before. It can happen again.

THE WIZARD, THE VIRUS AND A POT OF GOLD. Viktor Orban and the future of European solidarity

THE WIZARD, THE VIRUS AND A POT OF GOLD. Viktor Orban and the future of European solidarity

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Corona Crisis; Viktor Orbán; Péter Szijjarto; inner-EU solidarity; refugees;

A few days ago, on 30 March, two things happened that put a spotlight on a deep crisis of European solidarity. That day the EU adopted a Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII) with the goal of mobilising € 37 billion to overcome challenges related to the corona crisis and to save lives. And yet, while Italy was allocated CRII funding equivalent to 0.1 percent of its GDP, and Spain 0.3 percent, Hungary received an astonishing 3.9 percent of its GDP in CRII funding. Italy received € 2.3 billion but Hungary, with one sixth its population, € 5.6 billion. Italy was then the country most affected by the coronavirus, with more than 9,100 deaths on 27 March. Hungary had 10. The European Commission admitted that this was not “an optimal allocation.” It was, however, a perfect deal for Viktor Orban. 30 March 2020 was a dark day in the history of EU assistance. It highlighted the fact that this system of solidarity had gone fundamentally wrong. Europeans now need to find better ways to defend the values enshrined in their treaties, not with pious words and empty threats, but in the language of power and money that politicians like Orban will understand. European democracies must learn lessons from the often-invoked Marshall plan: assistance without strategy, funding without values, will not produce lasting positive impact. What the EU needs today is a strategy that simultaneously addresses both threats to economic cohesion and to democracy, in a way that strengthens both.