CEEOL - Search Result

Retreat for Progress in BiH? – The German-British Initiative

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Toby Vogel,Valery Perry,Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: BiH; progress; retreat; German-British; initiative; October; general elections; constitutional reform; Sejdić-Finci; ethnicity; EU;

On the heels of the October general elections, representatives of Germany and the United Kingdom announced a new initiative to engage with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and re-shape its European integration path after years of stalemate or even reform regression. The initiative includes all of the off-the-shelf ingredients of previous efforts to jump-start the reform process in BiH, such as written commitments (applied in the past to police reform, constitutional reform, etc.) and a reform agenda (as in the Partnership Document). But it lacks the specificity or leverage of these past efforts. The aim seems to be to steer around all contentious issues and focus on socio-economic development without associated “political” reforms. To this end, it postpones and substantially weakens the condition that the European Court of Human Rights’ Sejdid-Finci ruling be implemented. But the economic pillars of power of the BiH political elites are just as sensitive for them as the ethno-nationalist ones. The initiative builds on the shaky foundation of the EU’s prior behavior in BiH, which has led local political leaders to rightly discount the Union’s seriousness on conditionality. Unless this perception is changed, this initiative is likely to fail just as those which preceded it.

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The Western Balkans and the Ukraine crisis – a changed game for EU and US policies?

Author(s): Bodo Weber,Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; Ukraine crisis; EU; US; policy; Russia; energy policy; geopolitics;

Well before the ongoing Ukraine crisis began in late 2013, Russia had asserted itself in the Western Balkans politically, often using economic leverage to that end. A lack of Western unity has enabled Moscow’s efforts. Russian interests are in play throughout the region, but are most problematic in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the latter through the Serb entity, the Republika Srpska. The full extent and nature of these relationships are shrouded in opacity. Yet both are increasingly problematic for Western interests, and even European security. The conflict in Ukraine, and the resulting impact on the relationship between Russia, the EU and the US, has affected developments in and around the Western Balkans in different ways. The Ukraine crisis has drawn Western policy attention away from Balkans. Yet the region has become an additional proxy battlefield in this new geopolitical conflict, symbolized by intensified Russian diplomatic and propaganda activities aimed particularly, but not exclusively, at Serbia. The various international and Western Balkan actors have occupied different policy positions. The EU among its 28 members, the EU as a corporate body and the US, have struggled to articulate a joint policy position to counter Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, often based on varying levels of economic – and especially energy – interdependence with Russia. Security perceptions vary according to both distance from Russia and the historical nature of the relationship, with Baltic states and Poland most adversarial in their posture toward Moscow. In parts of the Western Balkans where a joint Western policy had already coalesced, such as with the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, the EU and the US have maintained a common policy despite the differences in confronting the challenge posed by the Ukraine crisis. Yet in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Western reactions mirrored the existing policy divide. It remains to be seen whether the roles and opportunities of European and American energy companies in the Western Balkans will be affected by the Ukraine crisis or whether they will influence individual Western countries’ policies towards the region. Yet at present, the Ukraine crisis has added substantial resolve to the European Commission’s already standing existing objections to the South Stream pipeline in Bulgaria (and Serbia) for its breach of EU regulations, to the dismay of the six EU member states participating in the project.

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Substantial Change on the Horizon? A Monitoring Report on the EU’s New Bosnia and Herzegovina Initiative.

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: BiH; EU; initiative; monitoring; report; labour market; business climate; public finace; taxation; pension; healthcare; social welfare; authorities; US; World Bank; IMF; parliament; civil society;

In November 2014, Germany and the United Kingdom launched a new policy initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). One month later, the European Union adopted the initiative as its own new EU initiative for BiH. Earlier, in February 2014, violent social protests had broken out in BiH and marked the failure of the EU’s previous policy approach in catalyzing real change in the country. At the same time, the protests drew new attention in the West to continuing problems in BiH. This enabled Berlin and London, whose dispute over the correct course of action to take in BiH had blocked the Union from having any meaningful policy, to get together behind a joint initiative. The focus of the new initiative was on structural socio-economic reform. Sensitive political issues like constitutional reform were pushed aside – for consideration at a later stage in enlargement – in order to unblock BiH’s long stalled EU integration process. From a distance, the initiative may appear successful; in September 2016, less than two years after the start of the new initiative, the Union’s General Affairs Council (GAC) referred BiH’s membership application to the European Commission to prepare an Opinion. This marked the last of three steps in the EU integration process, originally foreseen as a reward for the fulfillment of certain reform conditions. This was followed by the entering into force of the long-delayed Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and BiH’s official application for membership. In addition, the centerpiece of the initiative, the so-called Reform Agenda was agreed and implementation initiated. However, close examination of the state of reform within the scope of the EU initiative challenges this positive impression. The reality is that the limited reforms achieved so far are fragile, sustainability of the reforms is highly questionable and the long-term socio-political outlook remains tenuous.

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House of Cards: the EU’s “reinforced presence” in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Proposal for a new policy approach.

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: BiH; EU; presence; new policy; proposal; international policy; international community; January initiative; Western Balkans;

For seven years running, international actors have obsessed over their posture, structure and responsibility in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The assumption that led to the shift to an “ownership” approach – that BiH would propel itself into the Euro-Atlantic mainstream – has long since foundered on the shoals of BiH’s systemic realities. Deep divisions opened within the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board (PIC SB) and among EU members as the hopelessness of the current approach became increasingly evident. No systematic analysis was conducted on why the EU’s inducement of potential membership failed to deliver traction, as it had elsewhere. Paralysis set in. The arrival of a “reinforced EU presence” under the unified leadership of EU Special Representative Peter Sørensen in September 2011 gave the EU the undisputed lead international role in BiH. London and Washington de-emphasized their misgivings with the EU approach in the hope of a fresh start. Yet the political situation has reached an all-time low. BiH currently seems ungovernable – and the international community seems at a complete loss as to what to do about it, other than call upon Bosnian politicians to behave and for citizens to hold them to account. The international community’s primary problem in BiH is not one of conflicting philosophies, but rather of a lack of political will to deal with reality. Unwillingness of bureaucrats to tell their political masters the truth – that their chosen policy has failed and cannot succeed – is to blame. As a result, bureaucratic instrumentalism and finger-pointing predominate. Political resistance to the “European path” on the ground has been met with lowered benchmarks or their abandonment altogether. This policy leaves domestic political elites with the strong impression that far from entailing adoption of non-negotiable standards, EU integration is an à la carte process in which the EU itself is often the supplicant – an open invitation to undermine existing rules and regulations, rather than work on adopting new ones. The EU is and will remain an actor stuck in the morass of BiH politics. Yet it refuses to even recognize itself as a political actor, unable to admit the limitations of its approach in BiH. The EU eschews applying the potential leverage in its existing “toolbox” to drive democratization and reform. Until this potential is developed and employed, the “reinforced” EUSR/Head of Delegation will be as unsuccessful as his last three double-hatted predecessors. Now is the time to develop a real, integrated strategy toward making BiH a self-sustaining state.

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A Date for Belgrade? Conditionality, German leadership and Serbia’s path to the EU

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia and EU; Serbia and Kosovo; Conditionality;

In the space of less than a year, relations between the EU and Serbia’s new government have undergone a remarkable transformation. The government’s intentions appeared suspect, or at least uncertain, to most foreign observers. Yet in the end the concessions and compromises offered by Belgrade went far beyond what Brussels ever got out of the Tadić government over four years of a supposedly close partnership. The government has not only stayed the course of EU integration, but has also taken bold steps and taken the EU process more seriously than its predecessor. The agreements Belgrade signed in Brussels in April and May this year will, if implemented, lead to the integration of the Serb enclaves in north Kosovo into the Republic of Kosovo and the dismantling of any institutions of the state of Serbia on Kosovo’s soil.

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EUFOR: In Urgent Need of a Plan B

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: EUFOR; Bosnia and Hercegowina; Legislation; legal system;

The EU’s foreign ministers last week reaffirmed their support for EUFOR/Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), overcoming reluctance on the part of a number of EU members – France and Germany in particular – to extend the executive aspects of the mission. On November 11, 2014 the UN Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to vote on extending EUFOR’s executive mandate, under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, allowing it to use force to ensure international peace and security. The disposition of Russia, a veto wielding member of the permanent five members of the UNSC, is in question.This policy brief reviews the continuing need for EUFOR’s executive mandate in BiH and assesses concerns as to Moscow’s position prior to next month’s vote. It then considers the West’s potential fallback options.

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No Stability without Accountability – The West’s Responsibility in Macedonia

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Keywords: North-Macedonia; Republic of Macedonia; VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski; Western Balkans;

The Republic of Macedonia, once considered an island of relative stability in a troubled region, is now once again in the news, for the first time in almost a decade and a half, on account of internal turmoil. The hostility or opportunism of Macedonia’s neighbors has in the past decade abetted the degeneration of an already clientelistic domestic political culture into one in which neo-authoritarianism has taken strong hold. The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), the political opposition to Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and his ruling party, the nationalist Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), has for months been releasing voice recordings which appear to record internal government deliberations – and demonstrate widespread (and widely believed) malfeasance. Public dissatisfaction with malgovernance has led to demonstrations, while an ethnic separatist narrative which had been in remission for over a decade has been revived with a bloody – and still opaque – security operation against armed ethnic Albanians in the northern town of Kumanovo in early May.

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Progress Undone? Trading Democracy for Solving the Status Dispute in Kosovo

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosova state-building; Kosova and Serbia; Kosova and EU; Western Balkans;

Through their single-minded focus on the Dialogue, driven by tactical, short-term and short-sighted considerations, the EU and the US have directly and consistently contributed to worrying trends in Kosovar politics. Less than a year after the EU supported the coalition deal designed to get the Belgrade-Prishtina Dialogue back on track, Kosovo is again in the throes of an institutional crisis with recent opposition protests and blockage of the parliament’s work. The irony is that the damage inflicted on Kosovo’s already-fragile democracy by the EU and the US now threatens the very progress achieved in the Dialogue. In order to prevent a further deterioration of the situation and strengthen democracy and rule of law in Kosovo, the EU and the US must undertake a number of policy adjustments.

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Time for a Plan B: The European Refugee Crisis, the Balkan Route and the EU-Turkey Deal

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2015 migration crisis; Turkey and EU; Turkey and migration; Balkan-Route;

Over the course of 2015, an estimated 1.5 million people – the bulk of them refugees from Syria – made their way from Greece to Western Europe via the Balkan route. The shift to this previously marginal route for irregular entry of refugees and migrants into the EU led to the collapse of the EU’s external border in the Aegean and turned the long-standing problem of the EU’s deficient common asylum policy, which disproportionately affected the southern member states, into a full-fledged crisis. As late as early autumn 2015, the refugee crisis was still fully manageable. The EU’s immediate response followed the playbook used in various crises from the eurozone crisis onwards – a combination of reactive German leadership supported by a coalition of willing member states. On September 4, Chancellor Merkel, supported by her Austrian counterpart Werner Faymann, arranged with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the transit of refugees and migrants from Hungary with the aim to avert an escalation of the situation in that country. Merkel assembled a coalition of willing states that accepted to receive the bulk of refugees and migrants and worked with the countries on the Balkan route to avoid regional tensions over the wave and to achieve an initial smooth transit free of major human rights violations.

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Erratic Ambiguity: The Impact of Trump’s Unpredictable Foreign Policy in the Western Balkans

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Valery Perry / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Western Balkans;

Donald Trump has broken with almost seven decades of unwavering US commitment to Europe’s defense – to ensure a “Europe whole, free, and at peace” – by refusing to commit to NATO’s Article 5 – that an attack on one is an attack on all. The unreliability of that backstop will increase tensions and amplify the potential for continued escalation and dangerous miscalculation by Western Balkan actors. Doubt has crept into the transatlantic relationship from multiple directions, not least from the still murky, but highly disturbing, Trump-Russia relationship. American officials and legislators – especially those Republicans willing to put the interests of country before party – must demonstrate steadfastness in the face of destructive and erratic ambiguity at the top. But EU leaders cannot afford to leave Europe’s interests and the future of the Western Balkans to chance. The EU has the potential leverage and the capability to reverse the negative dynamic in the Western Balkans, both for its own benefit and for that of the peoples of the region. But to do so, it must acknowledge the vacuum its policies have enabled – and act decisively to fill it. If ever there was a real “hour of Europe,” it is now. In this context, DPC is presenting in this report a list of recommendations.

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The EU’s Failing Policy Initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnia and Hercegowina and EU; economic development; corruption;

This Policy Paper is a Reform Agenda & Questionnaire Monitoring Report. The new EU BiH initiative did yield some initial successes in 2015 and 2016. BiH authorities agreed a ‘Reform Agenda 2015-18’ with the EU and International Financial Institutions (IFIs), a broad blueprint for socio-economic reform that, if fully implemented, could have broken the country’s patronage system. Some initial implementation of the Reform Agenda and the formal fulfillment of some additional EU conditions prompted the EU’s General Affairs Council in September 2016 to grant the final reward in EU integration envisioned in the initiative – a referral of BiH’s membership application to the European Commission for its Opinion on granting candidate status. In December 2016 the Commission took the next step and handed over its Questionnaire to BiH. More significantly, the International Monetary Fund signed a loan arrangement with BiH in September 2016 designed to support the Reform Agenda, based on exceptionally strict financial conditionality and prompting the governments in BiH to concede on some previously unimaginable reforms. However, these successes were short-lived, limited and superficial. From early 2017, it became evident that the initiative would be a failure when it formally concludes at the end of 2018. Throughout 2017, implementation on all fronts came to an almost complete standstill, although EU representatives and other international officials continue to pretend the initiative is still alive.

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Western Collusion in Undermining the Rule of Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina: An Overview

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Keywords: legal development in Bosnia and Hercegowina;

Three legal cases/political scandals during 2018-19 grabbed the attention of the domestic public and the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The first two concerned the unresolved deaths of two young men, Dženan Memić in Sarajevo and David Dragičević in Banja Luka. The improper investigative conduct of the police and judiciary regarding their deaths raised suspicions of cover-ups and political interference. The third concerned corruption allegations against Milan Tegeltija, then president of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HJPC), the BiH judiciary’s self-managing body. The three cases marked the nadir of a steady decline of the rule of law institutions in BiH over the last decade and a half, and stand in stark contrast to 2005 when BiH was a frontrunner among Western Balkan countries aspiring to European Union (EU) membership. Rule of law achievements until then had been the result of substantial and systematic judicial and (to a lesser degree) police reform carried out during the immediate post-war period under the leadership of the international community. This paper serves as an introduction to a policy paper/note series entitled “The Decline of the Rule of Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Role and Responsibility of the International Community” that constitutes a central component of a project launched in 2019 by the Democratization Policy Council (DPC) with the support of the Heinrich Böll Foundation office in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is aimed at initiating a dialogue among Western diplomats and officials on the international community’s co-responsibility for the decline of the rule of law in BiH – with each subsequent paper covering one of the key episodes stated above – focused on how the damage done can be repaired, and how international actors can contribute to a re-strengthening of the rule of law institutions in BiH.

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Series:DEM. POLICY COUNCIL - Policy Papers

Retreat for Progress in BiH? – The German-British Initiative

The Western Balkans and the Ukraine crisis – a changed game for EU and US policies?

Substantial Change on the Horizon? A Monitoring Report on the EU’s New Bosnia and Herzegovina Initiative.

House of Cards: the EU’s “reinforced presence” in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Proposal for a new policy approach.

A Date for Belgrade? Conditionality, German leadership and Serbia’s path to the EU

EUFOR: In Urgent Need of a Plan B

No Stability without Accountability – The West’s Responsibility in Macedonia

Progress Undone? Trading Democracy for Solving the Status Dispute in Kosovo

Time for a Plan B: The European Refugee Crisis, the Balkan Route and the EU-Turkey Deal

Erratic Ambiguity: The Impact of Trump’s Unpredictable Foreign Policy in the Western Balkans

The EU’s Failing Policy Initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Western Collusion in Undermining the Rule of Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina: An Overview