Series:EAP Think Bridge. Eastern Partnership monthly analytical Digest

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-07 - The Assembly of Changes of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-07 - The Assembly of Changes of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Natalia Chermoshentseva,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

The new 2019 should be a year of change, both in the partner states and in the region as a whole. A series of elections can completely change the political reality. And the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership is an occasion not only for celebrating , but also for defining new goals. Civil society should actively join the search for these new horizons for the Eastern Partnership beyond 2020. What new tools for participation in decision-making within? the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum received, what changed in the Forum itself and what other accents were put during the unusual it its form and content annual Assembly, analyzed Gennady Maksak. What shifts should be expected in the region after the change of power in Georgia and Armenia? What will the elections bring in Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus, where the campaigns are in full swing? The results of year 2018 are summarized in our traditional reviews of events in each of the six par tner countries. In the meantime, the joint staff working document “20 EaP deliverables until 2020” remains the main roadmap in relations with European partners. And further ambitions will largely depend on the implementation of this “homework assignment”. How Ukraine fulfills the provisions of the document regarding gender equality is studied by Natalia Chermoshentseva. //// CONTENT: Armenia’s new political reality // Investors leave Azerbaijan? // Belarus: The Kremlin’s ultimatum // Georgia: Opposition declares a boycott // Moldova: Elections are coming // Ukraine: In the hope of new victories? // Analytica: Are they equal? How Ukraine deals with gender equality issues // The Assembly of Changes of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-04 - Caspian Sea status. The Long-awaited Convention

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-04 - Caspian Sea status. The Long-awaited Convention

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Daniela Gologan,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Vitaliy Martynyuk / Language(s): English

Security has been one of the key components of the Eastern Partnership policy. But the content and framework of cooperation in this field set by the EU do not quite match the expectations of the partner countries. How different are the positions of Brussels and the capitals of the region? What deliverables from the partner-states are expected by the European Union? How much have Ukraine and other EaP countries advanced in achieving these goals? The situation is analyzed by Vitaly Martynyuk. Security issues have also become an important part of the long-awaited Convention on the Caspian Sea Status. But most importantly the principles of dividing the shelf and waters of the Caspian Sea were agreed upon. What this means for the Eastern Partnership and Europe, especially in the energy sector, who lost and who won from signing the document, Sevinj Aliyeva looked for answers. Meanwhile, September turned out to be intense in the countries of the region. Russia intervened on the agenda of all the six. The new Armenian government is gaining momentum and developing “partnership and brotherly” relations with the Kremlin. The President of Azerbaijan exchanges visits with Russian vis-à-vis. Moldovan leader also flows to the Kremlin. Belarus continues to negotiate with Moscow in the oil and gas sector without much success. Georgia is fighting off yet other round of accusations from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. Ukraine abstains from extending the Treaty on Friendship with its northern neighbor. The most important events in foreign and domestic policy and the economy in the region are pictured in our traditional reviews of the month. //// CONTENT: Emboldened and empowered Armenian government // Azerbaijan getting closer to Russia? // Belarus: Uncertain relations with Russia // Georgia: Cannabis smells like politics // Pro-Moldovan policy instead of pro-European // Ukraine: Obstacle driving // Analytica: Caspian Sea status. The Long-awaited Convention // EP security: EU goals and Ukraine’s promotion

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-03 - New government of Belarus: first steps

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-03 - New government of Belarus: first steps

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Ludmila Nofit,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Maksym Koriavets / Language(s): English

Keywords: political tension in Armenia; Belarus new government; Georgia and NATO; Moldova 27 years independent; Ukraine and Russia;

The traditional political calm of August in the Eastern Partnership was broken by Belarus. Firstly, with a wave of loud arrests of journalists and searches in media outlets, and later - with an unexpected reformatting of the government. How these two events are interconnected and how are they related to the upcoming elections is in the focus of this issue. Other than that, the month turned out to be rather calm for the countries of the region. Human rights issues remained on the agenda - opposition activist Ilgar Mammadov was released in Azerbaijan, and a number of illegally convicted Ukrainian citizens remain in Russian prisons and carry on their hunger strike. The top event in the Eastern Partnership foreign policy was the first ever visit of the German Chancellor to the South Caucasus. There, Angela Merkel made several statements that are important not only for Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, but also for the region as a whole. In addition, the focus of this issue is the integration of the digital markets of the Eastern Partnership countries into a single European space. Maksym Koryavets writes on Ukrainian experience in the harmonization of digital markets and recommendations that may be useful for the whole region. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Heightened political tension in Armenia // Azerbaijan: Demonstrative release of activist // Belarus: New government and pressure on mass media // Georgia’s future in NATO and EU // Moldova: 27 years of Independence or Quo Vadis Moldova? // Ukraine: The final countdown in the struggle to save the Ukrainian prisoners of the Kremlin // Analytica: New government of Belarus: first steps // Harmonization of digital markets of Ukraine and EU: a bumpy road to innovative future

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-02 - Decline of democracy in Moldova at a glance

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-02 - Decline of democracy in Moldova at a glance

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Victoria Bucătaru,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

On the way to tightening relations with the EU, domestic changes in the Eastern Partnership countries have always been a required precondition. One thing that western partners keep a close eye on is internal reforms. But what drives these reforms and what slows them down? Is it responsible authorities, documented agreements, or European carrots and stick ? The case of Moldova, once a frontrunner of the EaP, is the focus of this issue. The first to sign the Association Agreement and get the visa-free regime, Moldova now seems to reverse on its European path. Who turned a success story into endangered democracy, Victoria Bucataru analyzes. On the other hand, Ukraine urges closer cooperation with European Union and strives for new platforms, formats, and tools. These desires were a matter of discussions at Ukraine-EU Summit. How the results of negotiations are relevant for all the countries of the region, Hennadiy Maksak tells. All the EaP states are also going through changes. Georgia’s new prime minister turned to issues of ecology in order to meet European standards. Belarus, stimulated by the prospects of a new IMF loan, makes further steps to liberalize the economy. Armenia’s new government went as far as to imprison the former president accused of power abuse. Ukraine struggles to continue the anti-corruption fight. Meanwhile, Moldova experiences democracy crisis, even deepened by the fiscal reform. And the lack of changes in authority approaches in Azerbaijan even led to an assassination attempt on an official. The details of all these changes and even more are in our traditional monthly overviews. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Sustaining the momentum of change // Azerbaijan: Heated up by the mayor assassination attempt // Belarus: Diplomatic wars with Russia // Georgia: Horses in the presidential team // Moldova: Endangered European path // Ukraine: Back to international agenda? // Democracy in Moldova at a glance // From Summit to Summit: Eastern Partnership context In Ukraine-EU relations

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-01 - The dawn of new Armenia

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-01 - The dawn of new Armenia

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Victoria Bucătaru,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Yurii Vdovenko / Language(s): English

After a six-month break, we return with the updated monthly Eastern Partnership Digest and all for the same purpose: to share an up-to-date and unbiased analysis of the situation in the region. Our bridge between the leading analytical centers of the Eastern Partnership is an attempt to fill in the information gap that exists between the six countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The states concentrate on bilateral cooperation with the European Union, undermining the powerful potential of partnership within the region. And the information that countries get about each other is often insignificant, untimely and distorted. The main value of the monthly Eastern Partnership Think Bridge Digest is a fresh analysis from the experts on the ground. The focus of this issue is the turning point for Armenia, where due to the thousands of voices of the streets, the transition to a parliamentary form of government has unexpectedly become a transition to a new style of policy. Traditionally, an important part of each Digest will be short analytical monthly reviews of the situation in the countries, first-hand analysis of key events in domestic and foreign policy and economy. In this issue, the country authors tell about the difficult and troubled first half of 2018. The protests rose not only in Armenia. Numerous demonstra¬tions also stirred up Georgia, forcing the prime minister and the attorney general to resign. The streets of Chisinau raged after the mayoral election results had been annulled. Azerbaijan also faced protests but without surprises as Ilham Aliyev remains in the presidential office for a fourth term. And Ukraine and Belarus are only entering the election process, although the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are already affecting the agenda in full. The new part of the Digest will be devoted to the analysis of Ukraine’s successes and difficulties in implementing the priorities of the Joint Working Document “20 Deliverables of the Eastern Partnership until 2020”. The expe¬rience of Ukraine can serve as an example of using the set of tools proposed by the European Union for other countries in the region. As before, we are open to cooperation and will gladly accept your ideas and comments. ////CONTENT: ARMENIA: FIGHT FOR TRANSFORMATIONS // AZERBAIJAN: CALM STRUGGLE // BELARUS: FROM UNPREDICTABLE KREMLIN TO THE WEST AND THE EAST // GEORGIA: THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS LOOKING FOR A WAY OUT // IS MOLDOVA STILL ON THE TRACK OF DEMOCRATIC REFORMS? // UKRAINE: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN POLICY STRUGGLE BEFORE ELECTIONS // ANALYTICA: THE DAWN OF NEW ARMENIA 20 DELIVERABLES FOR 2020: WHERE IS THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP HEADING?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-11 - Eastern Partnership Summit: compromise for the sake of continuation

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-11 - Eastern Partnership Summit: compromise for the sake of continuation

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Oleksii Krysenko,Vitaliy Martynyuk,Olga Chyzhova / Language(s): English

The Brussels Eastern Partnership summit did not bring neither breakthroughs, nor surprises, putting sustainability and stability of the member countries at the forefront. So far, it seems, the relations with the European Union will be reduced to the lowest common denominator of the six partner states. The European ambitions of the Association Agreements signatories were not support¬ed in the EU. No “carrots” after the visa-free travel and the free trade zone were promised to Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. No words on the in-depth cooperation with the lead¬ers of the initiative in the “Eastern Partnership Plus” format were mentioned in the final Declaration. Moreover, all attempts to introduce the possible, yet remote aspiration for the EU membership made the opposite effect. Instead, the European partners suggested the neighbors should pay more attention to the fulfillment of the commitments they had already undertaken. Only Armenia was quite satisfied with the summit results as it signed the new Com¬prehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. Azerbaijan and Belarus negotiate on elaborating the similar basic agreements. What is the future of the Eastern Partnership policy? Is the EU ready to work with its neighbors at “different speeds”? The results of the Brussels summit analyzed by Vitali Martynyuk. More about the summit outcomes significance for each of the EAP states can be found in our monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: RESTORING & REPAIRING RELATIONS WITH THE EU // AZERBAIJAN: ADJUSTING STATE BUDGET TO OIL PRICES // BELARUS: NEW CHALLENGES IN FOREIGN POLICY // GEORGIA: THRILLER WITH TERRORISTS IN TBILISI // WILL MOLDOVA MEET THE EXPECTATIONS? // UKRAINE: ANTICORRUPTION NOVEMBER // ANALYTICA: EASTERN PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT: COMPROMISE FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUATION // EAP THINK BRIDGE ROUND TABLE: ECONOMY IN THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP: PARTNERS, COMPETITORS OR BYSTANDERS?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-10 - Evolution in Moldovan security sector. Prospects for the future

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-10 - Evolution in Moldovan security sector. Prospects for the future

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Yuri Tsarik,Lasha Tughushi,Victoria Bucătaru,Oleksii Krysenko,Danu Marin / Language(s): English

A bold statement made by the President of Moldova who declared that the state is neutral and therefore does not need an army at all, yet again drew attention to the security sector in the Eastern Partnership countries. The defense sector has long been on the fringes of attention as it did not promise considerable political dividends. Budgets of the armed forces were cut, and reforms were postponed. When it comes to Moldova, its usual reasons for an Eastern Partnership country to put off major changes were aided by domestic contradictions between the President on one side and the government along with the Parliament – on the other side. How Moldova is moving towards reforming its defense institutions, who stands in its way and which lessons can be learnt in the process by other countries of the Eastern Partnership – all these issues were addressed by Danu Marin from Foreign Policy Association of Moldova. In Belarus the army was in the spotlight as well: a death of the conscript instigated a new round of contradictions between security forces. Armenia as well decided to pay attention to its defense sector and in Oc¬tober it passed a law that changes the draft call, at the same time increas¬ing the spendings for the Armed Forces in the new budget. Meanwhile, the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was a new attempt to solve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by diplomatic, and not military means. Ukrainian diplomacy demonstrated a positive result: with the support of Turkish partners, Crimean Tatar Mejlis leaders, that had been convicted by occupational Russian authorities in the Crimea, were released. As for Georgia, the main battles of the month took place in political fields, where «Georgian Dream» in fact won this fight for almost monopolistic local power. Our traditional reviews include all the main developments of the month in the region of the Eastern Partnership. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: TENTATIVE RETURN TO DIPLOMACY // AZERBAIJAN: HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE SPOTLIGHT // BELARUS: FIGHTING FOR OPERATION SPACE // GEORGIA: LOCAL RISE FOR GEORGIAN DREAM // MOLDOVA: A SETBACK ON REFORM AGENDA // UKRAINE: NEW HOPES FOR OLD PARTNERS // ANALYTICA: EVOLUTION IN MOLDOVAN SECURITY SECTOR. PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-08 - From free trade zones to common economic space

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-08 -From free trade zones to common economic space

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Ahmad Alili,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Daniela Gologan,Oleksii Krysenko,Yurii Vdovenko / Language(s): English

While the countries of the Eastern Partnership are not ready to act as a united region politically, there does not seem to be too many obstacles for launching a pragmatic economic cooperation or even a common economic space. Those countries already signed the Association agreement with the Euro¬pean Union should be in the avant-garde of such an integration. However, in reality Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are once again more concentrated on the bilateral track of relations with the EU. Furthermore, these countries have yet to enjoy the advantages of the Free Trade Area with Europe as of now. The prospects of the common economic space within the frames of the Eastern Partnership were examined by a Ukrainian expert Yurii Vdovenko. Meanwhile, the traditional political peace and quiet in the region was not a feature of this summer. July and August turned out to be unusually hot for all six countries. In Azerbaijan the first lady Mehriban Alieva is getting more political weight, this may mean that there is finally an opportunity for a major power change in the country. As for Armenia, a fight to become a prime-minister with new powers as a result of the soon-to-be political system transforma¬tion continues, however, no official statements have been made yet. The rest of the countries were concentrated on their foreign policy games. Belarus, while still experiencing Russian pressure, chooses to put its eggs in several baskets. Georgia hopes to get back on track of the USA interests after Mike Pence visiting the country. As for Moldova, it had to explain the changes made to the electoral system to the Western partners. While Ukraine hosted a number of the important visits and events, however, not resulting in any significant changes. These and other important developments in the region can be found in our analytical reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: A SUSPENSEFUL SUMMER // AZERBAIJAN: POLITICAL CHANGES TO COME? // BELARUS: BETWEEN “HELSINKI-2“ AND “ZAPAD-2017“ // FIERY SUMMER IN GEORGIA // MOLDOVA ON THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY // UKRAINE: UNUSUAL ACTIVITY INSTEAD OF SUMMER RECESS // ANALYTICA; FROM FREE TRADE ZONES TO COMMON ECONOMIC SPACE

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-07 - Stronger energy security platform for EAP region: current situation analysis and recommendations

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-07 - Stronger energy security platform for EAP region: current situation analysis and recommendations

Author(s): Daniel Marin,Danu Marin,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Yurii Vdovenko,Ahmad Alili,Richard Giragosian,Olga Chyzhova / Language(s): English

Energy is a much broader issue for the EAP countries than economy or even security. In fact, this is an issue of the state independence, and the leverage Moscow has a habit of using to put pressure on those aspiring to escape its control. The Russian energy products were many times a decisive factor for choosing of a certain geopolitical way, and the perspective to be left without the Russian supplies overturned the ambitions of the European integration for the countries of the region. Will the Eastern Partnership be able to create a common energy platform and deprive Kremlin of one of its best cards? What are the preconditions for such cooperation and what stands in its way? The answers you will find in the analysis by Azerbaijani expert Ahmad Alili. While in June Georgia faced Russia interfering with its foreign policy yet again. Concerns have been raised by the Russian diplomats regarding the prospects of the Tbilisi’s deeper cooperation with NATO. At the same time this month clear aspirations of a NATO membership were juridically confirmed by Ukraine as a law. Belarus is moving towards visa facilitation with the EU. However, these functions have for some reason been performed not by the Belarusian diplomats but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, following the general trend of strengthening the positions of the law enforcement officials in the country. Moldova is still torn between the West and the East: while its prime min¬ister visited Brussels, its president had one more official visit to Russia. As for Armenia and Azerbaijan, both countries expressed criticism ad¬dressed to their Western partners. Yerevan, despite the financial aid com¬ing from the EU, responded strongly to the comments regarding its Central Electoral Commission, while Baku announced that an attempt of the OSCE Minsk group to facilitate the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict failed. You can find the main trends of the first half of the summer in each of the six countries in our traditional monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: POLITICAL POSTURING & ECONOMIC OPTIMISM // AZERBAIJAN: NEW CHALLENGES OF OIL PRICES INSTABILITY // BELARUS: POLITICAL GAMES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES // GEORGIA: SEVEN YEARS WAITING FOR DEMOCRACY // MOLDOVA: MIXED ELECTORAL SAGA CONTINUES // UKRAINE: FOCUS ON FOREIGN POLICY // ANALYTICA: STRONGER ENERGY SECURITY PLATFORM FOR EAP REGION: CURRENT SITUATION ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS // EAP THINK BRIDGE ROUND TABLE: BRIDGING THE DIVIDE: FORGING COOPERATION & FOSTERING COLLABORATION

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-06 - Bridging divide: forging cooperation and fostering collaboration

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-06 - Bridging divide: forging cooperation and fostering collaboration

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Olga Chyzhova,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Lina Grau,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia and NATO; Belarus and China; Ukraine and Russia;

However the different ways and motives the six East¬ern Partnership countries may have, one way or another they are moving towards strengthening their coopera¬tion with the European Union. The systematic reforms and the ability to defend their national interests while resisting the outside pressure are the two essential components for the further successful development in this direction. It is not unexpected that the countries in the region are in the different stages of EU engage¬ment, with prominent leaders being Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. That is why it is extremely important not only to establish the dialogue between the civil society and the reformers in each country of the region, but also to have the efficient communication between the countries sharing the best cases. It is exactly the subject matter of Armenian expert Richard Giragosyan’s monthly analytics. In May the relations of the countries in the region with their Western partners were not univocal. Georgia, on the one hand, became a political center, having hosted the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. However, on the other hand, it became involved in an international scandal due to the case of an Azeri opposition journalist kidnaped in Tbilisi. The world leaders reassured Ukraine that the sanctions against Russia will not be lifted. Moreover, Kyiv itself imposed some new sanctions on the aggressor’s business, and social networks “VKontakte” and “Odnoklassniki”, as well as “Yandex” search engine were blocked. In Yerevan the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe of¬fice, the last one in the Southern Caucasus, was closed at the behest of Baku. Yet Armenia and Azerbaijan faced new escalation of the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict – missile attacks. Moldova did not receive the financial aid promised by the EU, due to the issue of its democratic standards, in particular the deteriorating situation with media independence. At the same time Belarus is still seeking balance to counter the Russian influence not only in the West, but also in the East. In the course of the “One Belt, One Road” Forum, taking place in Bejing in May, Minsk signed an agreement with China on the cooperation in economy, as well as in security and military spheres. More details on these and other important events in the region are pro¬vided in our monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA WEATHERS THE STORM // AZERBAIJAN: NEW LOW IN RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA // BELARUS: CHINA’S MOST SPECIAL PARTNER // GEORGIA: ON THE WAY TO NATO // MOLDOVA: AUTHORITIES FORCING A MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM // UKRAINE: «AWAY FROM MOSCOW» TO ASSOCIATION WITH EUROPE // ANALYTICA: BRIDGING DIVIDE: FORGING COOPERATION AND FOSTERING COLLABORATION // EAP THINK BRIDGE ROUND TABLE: EASTERN EUROPE AND SOUTH CAUCASUS FACING NEW SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-05 - The security situation in Ukraine: lessons for the Eastern partnership neighborhood and wider Europe

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-05 - The security situation in Ukraine: lessons for the Eastern partnership neighborhood and wider Europe

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Stercul / Language(s): English

Security remains to be the key for all of the Eastern Partnership countries, without exception. Frozen, simmering and hot conflicts are the distinctive feature of the region as a whole. If, after the Russian intervention in Georgia in 2008, the West failed to learn the necessary lessons, today such lessons are again taught by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Where is the place of the region in Moscow’s geopolitical integration projects? What instruments of a hybrid intervention does the Kremlin use in attacks, not only against Ukraine? Where will Rus¬sia’s expansionist efforts lead to? Sergiy Gerasymchuk is looking for the answers to these and other security issues. In April, with the risk of resuming the clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh, se¬curity issues become dominant for Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Russia sells military equipment to both sides of the conflict, while providing them with a platform for the diplomatic negotiations. The main question in the expert environment of Belarus was: Do the concessions in the security sphere appear as a price of the economic agreements with Russia? At the same time Georgia’s agenda in April was dominated by the debate over the changes to the Constitution. The main stumbling block is the new electoral system. The change in the parliamentary electoral system was the top issue of the disputes yet with no results in Moldova as well. These and other most important events of April in the Eastern Partner¬ship countries are discussed in the traditional review of the month. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: SHARING SPOILS OF POWER // AZERBAIJAN: ECONOMY DECLINE AND RUSSIAN MILITARY SUPPORT // BELARUS: BALANCING FOREIGN POLICY AND REVIVING THE ECONOMY // GEORGIA: FIGHTING FOR THE NEW CONSTITUTION // MOLDOVA: INTERNAL POLITICAL DEBATES, AMBIVALENT ECONOMIC DECISIONS AND AMBIGUOUS FOREIGN POLICY AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF NATURAL DISASTERS // UKRAINE: POLITICAL SPRING BREAK, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND WAITING FOR // ANALYTICA: THE SECURITY SITUATION IN UKRAINE: LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP NEIGHBORHOOD AND WIDER EUROPE

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-04 - Belarus – Russia: crisis is over?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-04 - Belarus – Russia: crisis is over?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Mihail Popsoi,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

The Russian factor remains critical both for domestic and foreign policies of the Eastern partnership countries. Even states that do not face Moscow’s direct threat are forced to consider Kremlin’s opinion when taking important decisions. This dependence turned acute in March. Relations with the Russian Federation dominates traditional monthly reviews. Georgia, according to Tbilisi, faces another step in the attempt of the annex of the self-declared South Ossetia, that is a referendum about the change of this territory name. Belarus – Russia confrontation increased even more, with mutual accusations on the issue of oil and gas supplies. Ukraine decided to impose sanctions on five Russian banks, tightening its policy in response to Kremlin’s actions in Donbas. Armenia, in an attempt to shrug of its over-dependance on Russia, is making more efforts to find both the balance and the new Western partners. Whereas the president of Moldova, on the contrary, makes his efforts to strengthen Moldovan – Russian relations with his second visit to Moscow since the beginning of the year. The contradictions between Minsk and Moscow have become especially visible since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, however, they appeared much earlier and have always been fundamental. After the presidents of Russia and Belarus meeting in St. Petersburg both sides unexpectedly stated they have come to terms in all disputable points. However, can they really put their contradictions behind? Belarusian colleagues prepared a de¬tailed analysis of the dynamics and prospects of the conflict development. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: FACING THE IDES OF MARCH // AZERBAIJAN: FIGHT FOR BANKING SECTOR // BELARUS: (NO) FREEDOM DAY // GEORGIA: DANCING WITH WOLVES TO TUNE OF VISA FREE REGIME // MOLDOVA: MEDDLING THROUGH THE EAST – WEST DIVIDE // UKRAINE: BLOCKADE, SANCTIONS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY // ANALYTICA: BELARUS – RUSSIA: CRISIS IS OVER?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-03 - Realities and challenges of anti-corruption policy in Georgia

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-03 - Realities and challenges of anti-corruption policy in Georgia

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Mihail Popsoi,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

February can be described as a month of the active exchange between the Eastern Partnership countries and the European Union. It was precisely the negotiations with European leaders that turned to be the main point of the foreign policy agenda for almost all the countries in the region. However, each round of negotiations had its nuances and what is more, completely different results. Having gone through all lengthy bureaucratic procedures, Georgia finally received a positive decision on visa-free travel to European Union. Moreo¬ver, an approval of a suspension mechanism of visa-free regime for the third countries opened a way to a visa-free regime for Ukraine as well. Economic issues were at the core of the discussions held during the Azerbaijani President’s visit to Brussels. Meanwhile, Armenia got a sterling opportunity — a second chance in relations with the EU — after finishing the negotiations on the new frame agreement. After the Armenia’s shift to the Eurasian Economic Union in 2013 such a result opens new perspectives not only for Armenia but for the united Europe as well. As for the newly elected Moldovan President’s trip to Belgium, mainly his statements on the necessity to minimize the relations with the EU and expand the cooperation with the Eurasian Union got most attention. At the same time, the region maintains a high level of tension. The end of February was marked with the new outbursts of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Both Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy agendas were formed under the influence of the situation in Donbas and the Ukrainian-Russian relations. For Belarus the month turned to be rather turbulent due to the mass protests and a testing socio-economic background. As for the most important events of the month in the countries of the Eastern Partnership, let us offer you a brief and substantive monthly re¬views by the experts from all of the six countries. Corruption and Georgia’s successful case in fighting one of the biggest problems in the region became the focus of the analytical article of the month. How did the Georgians manage with an issue all their neighbors have been long struggling for? What made Georgia a leader in the anti-corruption ratings? What Georgian experience could be of use for other countries? Lasha Tughushy, Liberal Academy Tbilisi, provides the answers. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: PREPARING FOR THE POLLS // AZERBAIJAN: ON THE WAY TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY? // BELARUS: TURBULENT FEBRUARY // GEORGIA: CYANIDE AND MYSTICAL STORIES // MOLDOVA: STABLE INSTABILITY IS THE NEW NORMAL // UKRAINE: DONBAS IS THE MAIN ISSUE ON THE AGENDA // ANALYTICA: REALITIES AND CHALLENGES OF ANTI-CORRUPTION POLICY IN GEORGIA

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-02 - Moldova between two fires: the 2016 presidential election and the balance of power

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-02 - Moldova between two fires: the 2016 presidential election and the balance of power

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Alla Rosca / Language(s): English

As for political life, January is traditionally a lull month for the Eastern Partnership. However, despite of long holidays and endless days off, the beginning of the year gave a start to the processes that will be important for further developments in the region. In Armenia two distinct opposition coalitions were formed that want to challenge the ruling Republican Party in the April parliamentary elections. The Azerbaijani government is trying to overcome the consequences of the economic crisis and thus launched the implementation of the road-maps for 11 main sectors of the economy. In Belarus, the President proceeded with the mobilization rhetoric openly pointing at its eastern neighbor as the threat for state sovereignty and statehood. Due to the heavy dependence on Russian gas, Georgia was forced to sign a disadvantageous gas deal with Gazprom. And Ukraine in the context of yet again escalating conflict with Russia drew the red lines which it refuses to cross in its negotiations. The traditional short review of the month in the EaP Think Bridge Digest depicts all the major events in the region. At the same time in Moldova the newly elected president, Socialist-leader Igor Dodon, takes his first steps in the office, moving beyond pre-election rhetoric. Symptomatic Dodon chose Moscow as a distinction for his first official foreign visit. What made Moldova, the “champion” of the Eastern Partnership and the “success story” on the path to European integration, vote for an openly pro-Russian candidate? And does this choice mean the reversal of foreign policy – from Brussels to the Kremlin? The answers are provided by the analysts of Foreign Policy Association of Moldova. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: PREPARING FOR POLITICAL BATTLE // AZERBAIJAN: TENSIONS IN RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA // BELARUS: THREATS TO THE INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY OF BELARUS // GEORGIA: GAS ISSUES WITH RUSSIA HEAT UP THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE // MOLDOVA: DODON IS MOVING BEYOND RHETORIC // UKRAINE: A LULL IN DOMESTIC POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL BATTLES // ANALYTICA: MOLDOVA BETWEEN TWO FIRES: THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THE BALANCE OF POWER

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-01 - Armenia in transition: turning point or tipping point?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-01 - Armenia in transition: turning point or tipping point?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Victoria Bucătaru,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

We are building a bridge between the Eastern Partnership countries — the intellectual one. Unified by the Eastern Partnership policy, the countries are mainly focused on the cooperation with European institutions. At the same time, they disregard the substantial potential of the partnership within the region. After all, despite the geographical proximity, shared past, and, to the great extent, similar difficulties, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine extremely differ from each other in terms of their political and social situation. Nevertheless, the neighbours take it slow to learn from each other’s success or failures. And sometimes they just do not get accurate information from neighbouring countries, especially given the widespread influence of Russian propaganda. Bringing together expert communities of the Eastern Partnership, EaP Think Bridge Initiative aims to tackle this problem. This bridge between the leading think tanks of the region is an opportunity to receive the latest first-hand analytics. We are pleased to present the result of this cooperation – the monthly EaP Think Bridge Digest. The first issue opens with the analysis of the situation in Armenia on the threshold of the parliamentary elections in April 2017. Considering the escalation of conflict in Nagorny Karabakh and the uneasy situation in the country, the elections do not seem to be a predictable culmination of the well-ordered and planned transition to a parliamentary form of government anymore. An important part of each digest issue is a short analytical overview of the month in six countries. It is a kind of photograph of the domestic political situation, economy, and foreign policy of the country. No unnecessary information included, only the most important data from local experts, and a clear scheme of analysis that enables to trace the dynamics of events. Let’s start with the overview of 2016, which was the year of upheaval, change, and hardship for the region. Currently, with the support of the F. Ebert Foundation Regional Office “Dialogue Eastern Europe”, our bridge is built between the following analytical centres: Centre for Economic and Social Development (Azerbaijan), Regional Studies Centre (Armenia), Centre for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies (Belarus), Liberal Academy Tbilisi (Georgia), Foreign Policy Association (Moldova), and Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Ukraine). But we are open for cooperation, and we are looking forward to your ideas for the “Guest Expertise” section. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: CHALLENGES, CHANGES AND CHOICE // AZERBAIJAN: BELT-TIGHTENING AND BALANCING FOREIGN POLICY // BELARUS: DIALOGUE WITH THE WEST AND THE NEW COMPONENTS IN THE STATE IDEOLOGY // GEORGIA: PRO-WESTERN POWERS LOSE SUPPORTERS THOUGH EU MEMBERSHIP HAS NO ALTERNATIVE // MOLDOVA: NEW PRESIDENT & OLD ISSUES // UKRAINE: BETWEEN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AND INTERNAL CHALLENGES // ANALYTICA: ARMENIA IN TRANSITION: TURNING POINT OR TIPPING POINT?