CEEOL - Search Result

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AUKUS: Australia, UK, and the U.S. Strengthen Defence Cooperation

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: AUKUS; Australia; UK; USA; foreign policy; defence; cooperation;

On 15 September, the leaders of Australia, UK, and the U.S. announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The deepening cooperation in this area between Australia and the U.S. will strengthen the network of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific crucial for counteracting China’s growing military potential. However, by keeping the AUKUS negotiations secret from EU allies and forcing France out of its contract to provide non-nuclear submarines to Australia, tensions in transatlantic relations have flared again, which undermines the prospects of coherent U.S. and EU policy towards the Indo-Pacific.

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Bundestag Elections - An SPD Victory and the Subtle Charm of Coalition Negotiations

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; SPD; victory; Bundestag; elections;

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany won the Bundestag elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, it does not mean the Social Democrats will lead the government - CDU/CSU still can form a new coalition after it took 24.1%. Any coalition will most likely include the Greens (14.8%) and FDP (11.5%). With the participation of as many as three parties in the negotiations, Germany’s next government may not be formed until the turn of 2021 to 2022.

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Franco-Greek Defence Partnership

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Greece; defence; foreign policy; partnership;

The new Franco-Greek defence agreement deepens the countries’ cooperation in the face of Turkey’s revisionist ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The ships ordered by Greece as part of the deal will strengthen that country’s defence capabilities but also help the French Naval Group in its reorganisation caused by the cancellation of the submarine contract by Australia. The agreement with Greece extends the French argument for the EU to strengthen its defence capacity alongside NATO.

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Changes in the Austrian Government Following Accusations of Abuse of Power

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Austria; Alexander Schallenberg; government; Chancellor; Michael Linhart; foreign policy;

On 11 October, Alexander Schallenberg replaced Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria. The change was a consequence of the start of another investigation of Kurz for abuse of power. The new foreign minister, Michael Linhart, will continue the current foreign policy.

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Iraq after the Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iraq; parliament; elections;

The results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq indicate that the political scene will remain fragmented, which will hamper the formation of a new government. In addition, the record low turnout (41%) and the lack of significant changes on the political scene compared to before the 2019 mass protests will weaken the legitimacy of the next government. Although the political grouping that relies most on anti-Western rhetoric achieved its best results in modern elections, Iraq will strive to maintain a neutral position in the face of U.S.- Iran rivalry.

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Military Coup in Sudan

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sudan; military coup; governance;

The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.

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COP26 - Great ambitions, Great challenges

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: COP26; Climate Change; Conference;

COP26, the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is being held in Glasgow until 12 November. The aim is to increase global ambitions in the area of climate change mitigation, adaptation to these changes, as well as financing the fight against climate change. World leaders and climate scientists consider this event to be the most important climate summit since COP21 in Paris in 2015. Expectations are extremely high, but the preparations for COP26 and course of the negotiations signal numerous challenges to be overcome by the negotiators.

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G20 Rome Summit - Agreement on Vaccines and Taxes, Divisions on Climate

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Climate; Vaccines; Taxes;

On 30-31 October in Rome, the leaders of major world economies met and made commitments on the global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and changes in the international tax system, and split on climate action.

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The Japanese Government after Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japanese government; elections; parliament; foreign policy;

The 31 October elections to Japan’s House of Representatives brought another victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), run by new leader and prime minister Kishida Fumio. The new government will continue to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and emphasise Japan’s cooperation within the QUAD group on the Indo-Pacific, while trying to maintain proper relations with China.

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Algeria Halts Gas Exports to Europe Via Morocco

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Algeria; Morocco; Europe; Gas; export;

The president of Algeria has decided not to renew a contract for the transmission of gas through Morocco to Spain via the GME pipeline, effective this month. The decision is related to the Algerian-Moroccan dispute over the claim to Western Sahara. Morocco, which is almost entirely dependent on Algerian gas, will be the one most affected. It will also exacerbate the ongoing gas crisis in Europe.

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Russia and Belarus Deepen Integration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; foreign policy; relations; integration;

On 4 November, at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, a document was signed that “sets forth the Guidelines for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty Establishing the Union State in 2021-2023” and includes 28 integration programmes. Moreover, both countries approved the Union State military doctrine. This demonstrates a deepening of Belarusian political and economic dependence on Russia, and seals Russian military control over this country, which will strain the security environment in the region.

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Crisis on Belarus-Poland Border Exacerbated

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Belarus; border; situation; 2021; migration;

On 8 November, the situation on the border of Belarus and Poland significantly worsened. The Belarusian services led a large group of 2,000-4,000 migrants to the border where they are now trapped. The movement was preceded by disinformation intended to increase tensions and put pressure on the Polish security services operating on the border. These and similar actions are likely to continue and are aimed at undermining Poland’s image in the international arena and testing the country and EU’s ability to protect the border, with more large groups of migrants probably on the way.

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EU’s Strategic Compass Main Assumptions Revealed

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Josep Borrell; foreign policy; EU; strategy; security;

At the 15-16 November Foreign Affairs Council, ministers discussed a first draft of the Strategic Compass, prepared by the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. According to Borrell and media reports, the document proposes a wide-ranging package of reforms of the EU’s security and defence toolbox. The aim is to reinforce the capacity of the Union to stabilise its neighbourhood and provide security for the Member States. Some proposals, though, may still weaken NATO and generate new tensions in transatlantic relations.

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The Biden-Xi Meeting - Competition without Confrontation

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joe Biden; China; USA; Taiwan; military activity;

The first face-to-face talks - in a virtual format - between the U.S. president and the leader of China mainly served to de-escalate tensions in their bilateral relations, particularly in the context of China’s latest military activity over Taiwan. The leaders agreed to launch a dialogue on strategic arms and ease visa restrictions on journalists. Despite the deep differences between the sides, which were re-emphasized in the meeting, for example, on economic issues, the talks signal an easing of the stress in relations between the U.S. and China.

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COP26 - A Steep Climb but Forward

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: COP26; Climate Change; Conference; Measures; Protection;

COP26, the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was held in Glasgow between 31 October and 13 November. Its aim was to increase global ambitions in the area of climate change mitigation, adaptation to these changes, as well as financing the fight against climate change. Expectations for the summit were very high, but the agreements that were reached and the new Climate Pact signed by 196 countries and the EU fell short. This does not mean, however, that the summit was a failure. The upcoming months will show the extent to which the new arrangements will translate into real measures to protect the climate.

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Russia Adjusts Its Foreign Policy Directions

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; foreign policy; security; NATO;

On 18 November, at an expanded meeting of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that included the foreign minister, his deputies, some department directors and, among others, the rector of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), all of which are responsible for planning foreign policy, President Vladimir Putin laid out the most important goals for Russian diplomacy. He underlined the necessity of tightening security policy, including in relations with NATO, and Russia’s further involvement in “resolving regional conflicts”. Putin also announced the publication of a new foreign policy concept. These indications mean that Russia will maintain and even increase tensions in its relations with the West to try to force concessions on issues important to the country.

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Taiwan Opens Representative Office in Lithuania

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Taiwan; Lithuania; Representative Office; foreign policy;

Lithuania’s consent for Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius is primarily an expression of the Baltic State’s policy towards China, which is perceived as a growing threat to international security and in other areas. Lithuania’s actions in this dimension are supported by the U.S., a strategic partner in foreign policy. Disappointment with cooperation within the China-led “17+1” format also contributed to Lithuania strengthening relations with Taiwan and thus the willingness to look for alternative economic contacts.

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New WHO Decision an Opportunity to Strengthen the Pandemic Prevention System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; prevention; system; WHO;

The second special session of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) highest body, the World Health Assembly (WHA), was held on 29 November-1 December. It was attended by, among others, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, heads of government or ministers of health of most Member States, and EU representatives. It was decided to initiate and schedule negotiations on a new instrument to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Whether it will be created and effective, however, is not evident, not least because of the reluctance of some countries to limit their freedom to respond to public health threats.

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Biden and Putin Meet Online

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joe Biden; Vladimir Putin; Online Meeting; foreign policy; NATO; security;

On 7 December, the U.S. and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, met for the second time as heads of state, this time by videoconference. While the meeting was a U.S. initiative, it came in response to Russia’s actions, particularly its concentration of troops on the border with Ukraine and demands for security guarantees regarding the non-enlargement of NATO to the east.

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New Caledonia Referendum - Too Easy A Victory for Opponents of Independence

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: New Caledonia; France; independence; referendum;

The third and final referendum on the independence of New Caledonia from France, held on 12 December, resulted in an overwhelming victory for its opponents (96.49%). It stemmed from a boycott of the vote by the supporters of independence. While the French authorities consider the referendum result binding and call for dialogue on the future status of New Caledonia, separatist leaders intend to use the successful boycott to question the legitimacy of the last vote.

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Series:PISM Spotlight

AUKUS: Australia, UK, and the U.S. Strengthen Defence Cooperation

Bundestag Elections - An SPD Victory and the Subtle Charm of Coalition Negotiations

Franco-Greek Defence Partnership

Changes in the Austrian Government Following Accusations of Abuse of Power

Iraq after the Parliamentary Elections

Military Coup in Sudan

COP26 - Great ambitions, Great challenges

G20 Rome Summit - Agreement on Vaccines and Taxes, Divisions on Climate

The Japanese Government after Parliamentary Elections

Algeria Halts Gas Exports to Europe Via Morocco

Russia and Belarus Deepen Integration

Crisis on Belarus-Poland Border Exacerbated

EU’s Strategic Compass Main Assumptions Revealed

The Biden-Xi Meeting - Competition without Confrontation

COP26 - A Steep Climb but Forward

Russia Adjusts Its Foreign Policy Directions

Taiwan Opens Representative Office in Lithuania

New WHO Decision an Opportunity to Strengthen the Pandemic Prevention System

Biden and Putin Meet Online

New Caledonia Referendum - Too Easy A Victory for Opponents of Independence