Series:OSW Reports

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Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż,Kamil Frymark,Michał Kędzierski,Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Zeitenwende

The Zeitenwende, the ‘new era’ in German policy which Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, is usually associated with a radical U-turn in the areas of energy and security. However, these connotations are imprecise at least on two levels. Firstly, over time it has turned out that the shift in Germany’s political strategy has not been so decisive, as can be seen in the steps that have been taken with regard to the reform of the Bundeswehr. Secondly, the SPD-Greens-FDP government wants the Zeitenwende to encompass many other key areas of politics and the economy.

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Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Energiewende

The phasing out of coal (Kohleausstieg) is the next stage of Germany’s energy transformation, after nuclear power plant shutdowns. Lignite and hard coal still play an important role in the German energy sector, but are also a significant source of carbon emissions. It will not be possible to reach the country’s climate policy targets without abandoning these resources. This is a major challenge in terms of energy system restructuring on the one hand, and the various, often conflicting political, economic and social interests on the other. Meeting the new, more ambitious climate goals requires the new government to clearly accelerate the decarbonisation of the economy, including the coal phase-out in particular. This report is an attempt to comprehensively address this issue as the new term of the Bundestag is about to start. It presents the role of coal in Germany’s energy sector, the context of the debate on the Kohleausstieg and the significance of a social compromise in the political initiation of this process. It includes an explanation of the coal phase-out mechanism adopted in the Act of 3 July 2020, while the issue of the restructuring of mining regions is also explored. Finally, the consequences of the transformation are set out and the perspectives of its course in the coming years are outlined.

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The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Agricultural development; Ukraine

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the light of the act on introducing an agricultural land market adopted in March 2020, which partially came into force in mid-2021 and will fully enter into force in 2024. It will allow, for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the free and legal trade in agricultural land. This will have far-reaching consequences both for local agriculture and for the country as a whole. The development of the agricultural sector, which has already progressed at an impressive rate in recent years, can be expected to accelerate further still. It should be remembered that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe in terms of area (excluding the Russian Federation) and more than half of its territory is covered by very fertile soils. The vast majority of the country has a climate favourable for agricultural production – the land is characterised by a long growing season for plants, plenty of sunshine and no problems with shortages of water for agriculture. The state thus has excellent conditions for this type of economy.

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The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Beijing-Moscow

The asymmetric alliance between Russia and China is the product of a long and unevenly paced process of relation-building that was launched by both sides shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was driven by the mutually felt necessity to regulate bilateral contacts (including the resolution of border disputes, adjustment of spheres of influence in the common neighbourhood), find common answers to global strategic challenges and, above all, a shared sense of a structural conflict with the United States.The Beijing-Moscow axis is, however, not merely an alliance between two states, but primarily an alliance between two authoritarian regimes that define their national interests in terms of maximising their chances of survival, to which end they have been striving to revise the existing world order. Both the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai see the international environment as the main source of threats to the political stability of their rule. Therefore, they share a common interest in shaping a global order that would provide the best conditions from the point of view of their continued existence. The fear of the West and of its ideological influence on their own societies serves to strengthen the alliance even further. To the Russian and Chinese elites, it is not any specific policy of the US or the European Union that poses an existential threat to them, but the very existence of a democratic alternative to their systems of government.

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Drought in the Czech Republic. The political, economic and social consequences

Drought in the Czech Republic. The political, economic and social consequences

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; drought

The Czech Republic is an example of a state in which drought has become a key issue in public debate. In the Czech Republic, 2020 was the seventh consecutive year of a drought that is considered the most severe in 500 years, and which differs from the previous ones in that it is more prolonged and is characterised by considerably higher temperatures. At its peak, every fifth municipality was exposed to the risk of water scarcity, which was particularly evident in southern Moravia and in north-western regions. The situation is further complicated by the fact that for many years Prague was focusing on the construction of a flood control system and on the mitigation of the consequences of floods. At present, the Czech Republic has the smallest freshwater resources of all the inland EU member states. Despite a gradual improvement in the situation, recorded since May 2020, the problem involving groundwater scarcity has not been fully eliminated, and experts – taking account of long-term climate change trends and structural problems faced by the Czech agricultural and forestry sectors – are expecting a recurrence of an even more severe drought in a couple of years at the latest. A closer look at the Czech Republic’s struggle with drought may prompt more comprehensive analyses regarding the water management policy pursued in Central Europe, a region which is becoming increasingly affected by recurrent droughts.

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New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; Estonia

In recent years, the Nordic and Baltic region has witnessed a growing interest in the concept of comprehensive security, which hails from the Cold War doctrine of total defence. This originates from the regional pivot to territorial defence and countering hybrid threats. A comprehensive approach to security is considered a driver for enhancing national resilience and for ensuring the best possible operational environment for armed defence. It incorporates military and non-military aspects of national security, and crisis management. Finland and Estonia stand out with respect to a comprehensive security strategy. Among the Nordic countries, Finland has the longest continuous tradition of a comprehensive approach to security, rooted in its strategic culture and societal background, while Estonia was the first of the Baltic states to begin building a comprehensive security system (already in 2008). The aim of this report is to present the concepts for comprehensive security in the Nordic and Baltic states, focusing on Finland and Estonia as case studies, and to analyse the practical ways in which comprehensive security is achieved in the two countries.

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The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany's climate policy

For years, Germany has claimed to be the leader of global climate policy and has continued to raise the issue of global warming on the international forum. All over the world, Germany is associated with the transition to renewable energy sources. The German word for this transition, Energiewende, has become a permanent entry in the glossary of terms used by energy experts. Since the last decade, Germany’s ambitious goals and its ‘green’ image have increasingly clashed with numerous problems faced by this transition. Measures carried out by successive governments were inconsistent with what had initially been declared. The German authorities lacked the determination to implement solutions which could potentially undermine the interests of influential industrial, business and social groups. Germany’s cautious attitude to the EU’s climate policy reform resulted in it being referred to as a ‘brake’ on the progress of this policy. Instead of positioning itself as an active leader, Berlin took up the inconvenient role of an actor responding to external initiatives.A sine qua non for Germany to be able to maintain its lead in international climate policy will involve it regaining its credibility as the leader of actions to combat global warming. This can only happen once Germany resolves its problems with Energiewende and embarks on a path to emissions reduction in line with the adopted targets.

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Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: 5G network; Russia

The digital transformation has become one of the Russian government’s economic priorities during Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term. At its core has been the development of ICT infrastructure, and especially the deployment of fifth-generation mobile networks (5G). The development of the digital sector has been dominated by security issues, which are seen as more important than technical or financial efficiency. It is expected that Russia’s 5G infrastructure will rely on Russian technologies, software and devices, and state bodies have been heavily involved in its implementation. As a result of a fierce rivalry between the main actors vying to influence the course of the digital transformation, its master plan is still in the process of being formulated. As regards the 5G network, the dispute centres on two issues: the choice of the operator market model (with the government opting for an infrastructure monopoly) and the choice of radio frequencies (with the security agencies opposing the release of the most prospective bands).

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Opposites put together. Belarus's politics of memory

Opposites put together. Belarus's politics of memory

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus's politics

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014 became a turning point in Belarus’s historical narrative and forced the regime to emphasise Belarusian distinctiveness from Russia more than before. The activation of the politics of memory, which had previously been conducted in a very conservative manner, became one of the key tools to accomplish this task. In order to strengthen the foundations of an independent Belarus, the government began to highlight the elements of the past that point towards an independent path for national development, and which at the same time allow for Russian dominance to be weakened. Changes have been manifested by reaching beyond the framework of the Soviet tradition to a greater extent and more frequent references to events that had previously been ignored or distorted. The government resorted to the historical narrative of the opposition and independent historians, which it had formerly opposed, yet this shift was carried out very cautiously. The process of shaping the politics of memory is not yet complete and is likely to evolve further in the coming years. Both the direction and the pace of change will depend on the nature of the political regime and its evolution.

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The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Caucasus; Nagorno-Karabakh

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the ‘mother’ of all post-Soviet conflicts. It is the oldest of them, it involves the largest number of actors (including mediators and intermediaries), and also covers the most dimensions: military, political, economic and social. The Karabakh issue has come to dominate the post-Soviet history of Armenia and Azerbaijan, shaping their modern statehoods; left a lasting mark on the region, including its transport infrastructure; and has become an instrument of control over the South Caucasus for Russia. Despite the fact that the present significance of the conflict has decreased since the wars in Georgia and Ukraine, it remains an important element of politics at the junction of post-Soviet Eurasia and the Middle East. Each decision made in this connection will set a certain standard for the area of ​​the former USSR and for Moscow's relations with the former Soviet republics.A possible new war would violate the security system in this part of the world. Such a scenario is unlikely, but not unrealistic. It is made more likely by the fact that the current state of political suspension does not represent a ‘freezing’ of the conflict, but is rather a form of ‘stable instability’: armed incidents occur every day, and people are killed regularly.This report is intended as a handy compendium of the conflict. It has been produced more than 30 years after its outbreak and over 25 years since the end of the Karabakh war. It describes its changing dynamics over time, the interests of the participants and external actors, the course of the peace process, the current state of affairs, and the prospects for the future.

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A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence

A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Defence Union

Since 2016, efforts to increase cooperation in the EU’s security and defence policy have accelerated. New initiatives have been undertaken in the military, industrial and civilian dimensions under the label of a European Defence Union. So far, nothing indicates that the enhanced cooperation of the EU member states will lead to an integration of their defence policies or to building an alternative to NATO. The new EU instruments, even if they are actively used by the member states, will to only a small extent increase European military capabilities, lead to innovation in the European defence industry or improve the capacity of the military and civilian crisis management missions. This report presents and analyses the EU’s instruments, as well as the opportunities and challenges they present to those EU member states that form NATO’s eastern flank at the same time.

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Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kaliningrad; Moscow

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse the most important changes that have taken place in the Kaliningrad Oblast since 2016. Part One analyses the dynamics of the political and social situation with special focus on: changes in the relations between the federal centre and the oblast; the situation within the power elite; and the development of civil society activities. Part Two is devoted to analysing the economic situation and looks in particular into social and economic indicators and the evolution of Moscow's policy towards the region, including its transport and energy projects. Part Three delves into the oblast's relations with the external world, including its cross-border contacts and co-operations, the movement of people and economic exchange. Finally, Part Four is devoted to the evolution of the internal security situation and policy, and the expansion of Russia's military potential in the region.Moscow's policy towards the Kaliningrad Oblast has been increasingly consistent in recent years. Its main objective has been to further tighten its grip on the region and its links to mainland Russia in the political, social and economic dimension. As a result, the Kaliningrad Oblast has been made more subordinated to Moscow, which is in line with a general trend in the relations between Russia's central government and the regions.

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The Chinese Communist Party and its state. Xi Jinping's conservative turn

The Chinese Communist Party and its state. Xi Jinping's conservative turn

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Chinese Communist Party; Xi Jinping

The fundamental feature of the Chinese political system is the primacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its control over all areas of the state’s operation as well as a large part of the economy. The CCP regards the state as a tool of governance, and as such it is subject to regular transformations. The representative bodies and state positions are to a large extent simply facades, and the Communist Party still retains its Leninist character. The official image of the Party monolith hides a dynamic, inter-generational and internally complex multilevel organisation, with a total of 90 million members. It is an arena of struggles for power between factions and in­terest groups and, increasingly, family clans. A strong bond which holds the CCP together is the ideology of Marxism-Leninism, which gives the Chinese ruling elite its basic conceptual grid and shapes its aspirations, translating into the operation and evolution of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).The description of the PRC’s political system presented in this study focuses on answering the following questions: how does the Party rule China, who manages the Party, and how do they manage it? Part 1 is a guide to the PRC’s political system during the ‘reform and opening up’ period and presents its structure and rules of governance. Part 2 describes the fundamental change of the political regime in the PRC, associat­ed with Xi Jinping’s conservative turn. Part 3 shows how far the corrections to the PRC’s political system and personnel changes implemented by Xi Jinpinghave transformed the governance of sectoral policies: economic and foreign policy, security and social control.

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A country with non-existent unemployment. The special characteristics of the Czech labour market

A country with non-existent unemployment. The special characteristics of the Czech labour market

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech labour market

Since 2016, the Czech Republic has had the lowest unemployment rate among EU member states and since 2017 among OECD countries. This is surprising to many observers, especially in Western Europe, as former communist states have for years been associated with high unemployment and structural problems. This situation on the labour market is an effect of several factors, including: the structure of the Czech economy which was undergoing its formation for many decades; the economic policy adopted over the past few years; and the economic revival in the global economy, noticeable especially since 2014. The low unemployment rate and the increasingly visibly rising real wages translate into improving living standards for Czech society. However, this situation adversely affects companies which are looking for ways to deal with a labour shortage. One of the solutions is the automation of production processes but employers are also insisting that the country should become more open to workers from other countries, especially Ukraine. The trade unions are opposed to this because they fear that an influx of immigrant labour will slow down the rate at which wages are rising. At the same time, there is a debate in the Czech Republic about the extent to which the present economic model contributes to the country catching up with the Western economies and what should be done to speed up the convergence.

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Industry 40. Germany’s new industrial policy

Industry 40. Germany’s new industrial policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Estonian

Keywords: Germany; industrial policy

For several decades industry has been the strength of the German economy. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by the wide use of the internet &digital technologies in all spheres of the economy, is transforming the market in ways which threaten the position of German manufacturing sectors. The challenge for Germany lies in new innovative leaders and IT tycoons entering the automotive sector, who have ambitious plans to create self-driving cars fully integrated with digital technologies. In turn, the German machine industry is afraid of competition from China, which is rapidly catching up, as it has vast financial resources to develop innovation and buy up foreign technology. The German state’s response to the challenges ahead lies in the Industry 4.0 concept, i.e. the construction of entire production plants capable of autonomously coordinating production processes amongst themselves. German companies need to gain dominant positions on the markets for smart devices and self-driving cars, urban mobility systems, complex systems for producing energy from renewable sources, and improving energy efficiency. This requires a radical change in German manufacturers’ existing business models, an increase in their competence in the use of digital technologies, and ensuring access for companies to modern IT infrastructure and the data they need.

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