Series:OSW Commentary

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Iraqi Kurdistan – the beginning of a new crisis in the Middle East?

Iraqi Kurdistan – the beginning of a new crisis in the Middle East?

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Józef Lang / Language(s): English

Keywords: Islamic State (IS); Iraqi Kurdistan; Middle East

Against the backdrop of the ongoing dismantling of Islamic State (IS) and the preparations for the independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan scheduled for 25 September, Iraq as a whole is facing a new conflict which is likely to result in a thorough revision of the present balance of power in this part of the Middle East. A serious risk has emerged that the conflict may rapidly escalate, and its consequences may be more serious for the Middle East and Europe than the fight against Islamic State.

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Predictability lost: the German political scene after the elections

Predictability lost: the German political scene after the elections

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: German political scene; Germany

Both in Germany and abroad, the commentary on the recent elections in Germany has been dominated by the analysis of the results scored by the anti-immigrant and anti-Islam Alternative for Germany (AfD), particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the country. The party had been almost certain to make it to the Bundestag long before the 24 September elections: the result it has just scored was only slightly better than what the pre-election polls suggested. The results scored by the two mass parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD, were much worse than the poll predictions. It is these parties’ results that offer an insight into the evolution of German voters’ political identities. Moreover, they are of key importance when assessing and predicting the upcoming events on the German political scene. In the short term, it is unlikely that the old parties will break up or that new ones will emerge. However, it is likely that the traditional mass parties will continue to lose their electoral base. Parties with a distinct ideology such as the AfD, which is likely to be an uncompromising opposition party, may continue to gain ground. Due to the AfD’s presence in the Bundestag, the language of public debate in Germany is likely to become increasingly aggressive, and the narratives of the AfD and the remaining parties are diverging to an ever greater extent.

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Iraqi Kurdistan – the beginning of a new crisis in the Middle East?

Iracki Kurdystan – początek nowego kryzysu na Bliskim Wschodzie?

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Iraqi Kurdistan; Middle East

Against the backdrop of the ongoing dismantling of Islamic State (IS) and the preparations for the independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan scheduled for 25 September, Iraq as a whole is facing a new conflict which is likely to result in a thorough revision of the present balance of power in this part of the Middle East. A serious risk has emerged that the conflict may rapidly escalate, and its consequences may be more serious for the Middle East and Europe than the fight against Islamic State.

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The Ulyukaev case – tension inside the Russian elite

The Ulyukaev case – tension inside the Russian elite

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ulyukaev case; Russian elite

Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister for Economic Development, was detained on 14 November 2016. Subsequently the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation launched an investigation against him on the charge of accepting a bribe (US$2 million). The bribe was reportedly offered in appreciation of the ministry’s positive opinion that enabled the state-owned oil company Rosneft to take over a 50.08% stake in Bashneft (the transaction was finalised on 12 October 2016). Much seems to indicate that the Ulyukaev case is an element of the rivalry of opposing groups of interest inside the Russian ruling elite. The operation was initiated by the CEO of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and its goal was to deal a blow against the government’s economic bloc criticising Rosneft’s expansion in the Russian energy sector. In turn, the Ulyukaev trial itself has been used by Sechin’s numerous opponents to undermine his position. However, the developments seen over the past year show that Igor Sechin remains the key player in the Russian energy sector. He owes his position to his close links with Vladimir Putin and the important function which Rosneft plays in the country’s domestic and foreign policy. The conflict between interest groups is an integral element of the Russian political system, and allows the Russian president to play the role of arbiter in the government elite. The rules of operation of this system are unlikely to change significantly in the coming years.

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The Kremlin’s regional policy – a year of dismissing governors

The Kremlin’s regional policy – a year of dismissing governors

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kremlin’s regional policy

2017 has seen a wave of dismissals of the heads of Russia’s regions – the largest in the past five years. This is linked primarily to the Kremlin’s preparations for the presidential election. Personnel changes are among the few instruments the government has at its disposal to improve public support, given the dysfunctional governance model, growing dissatisfaction among the Russian public and the government team’s unwillingness to launch reforms.Even though it would appear that there is no single consistent algorithm for reshuffles on the level of governors (each decision to dismiss and nominate a governor has been considered separately), still the criteria that were taken into account in the first place included the socio-economic situation in the region, the degree of tension inside the regional elite, and public support for the incumbent governor. The Kremlin’s inability to formulate an appealing and credible election manifesto has been masked by a partial rejuvenation of the regional government staff and a temporary neutralisation of tension in some of the regions. Thus the staff ‘face-lift’ ahead of the election is aimed predominantly at building a positive image; the main goal is to give hope to the public, at least temporarily, of positive changes.The position of governors in the Russian government system has been gradually diminishing. Their competences and status have been consistently reduced as part of the process of increasing the centralisation of power in Russia. The logic of the personnel changes carried out in 2017 proves that the status of the governor’s office has been finally downgraded and depoliticised: the newly appointed governors are in fact middle managers and representatives of the nomenklatura delegated from the centre and at the full disposal of the central government.

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Putin for the fourth time. No vision, no hope

Putin for the fourth time. No vision, no hope

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Putin; Russia; elections;

On 6 December Vladimir Putin announced that he will run in the presidential election to be held on 18 March 2018. The absence of any change in the office of Russia’s president is rooted in the logic of a personalised system of governance that has emerged in Russia. It is also a demonstration of the government’s will to maintain the present course in domestic and foreign policy, one that is static and devoid of any scope for development. This is regardless of the fact that the government is struggling with increasingly serious economic and socio- -political challenges. These mainly include economic stagnation, continuously decreasing real incomes, and tense relations with the West, all combined with the lack of a coherent, positive ideology to legitimise Putin’s model. Against this backdrop, the election-related actions the government has taken to date are of a provisional and tactical nature: they focus on efforts to achieve a stabilisation of the socio-political situation and to eliminate possible threats to the ruling elite in the pre- and post-election period. At the same time, attempts are being made to make the electoral ritual more attractive, so as to boost turnout and thereby demonstrate a high approval rating for both the president and the model of governance he endorses.

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Russian nationalism three years after the annexation of Crimea

Russian nationalism three years after the annexation of Crimea

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian nationalism; annexation of Crimea

The annexation of Crimea and Russia’s military action in the Donbas in 2014 have revealed a major potential for a revival of nationalist sentiments in Russian society. The wave of ‘patriotic’ attitudes that swept through the country back then has enabled the government to co-opt the rhetoric that is typical of nationalist groups. The Kremlin has used this period to shore up its legitimacy among the public and step up control of specific organisations. This has resulted in changes to the structure of the nationalist movement. A weakening was recorded mainly in relation to nationalist organisations that are independent from the government and those organisations which had been involved in the fighting in the Donbas in the initial stage of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.For the Kremlin, nationalist ideology and nationalist organisations that are unable to act independently are a handy political instrument. They are mainly being used to build support for the government and to consolidate power in Russia. At the same time, the fear that independent nationalist movements may become empowered and organisations that are dependent on the authorities may become emancipated poses a potential threat to the country’s internal stability. This makes the Kremlin strive for greater control of those nationalist groups that still remain somewhat independent.

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Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year

Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; elections

Since the end of 2015 Vlad Plahotniuc, an oligarch and the richest man in Moldova, leader of the ruling, nominally pro-European Democratic Party, has been de facto the only person who counts in Moldovan politics and business. He is an extremely unpopular politician who has been accused of transforming Moldova into a classic ‘captured state’. However, he has been forced to work with Igor Dodon, the country’s nominally opposition and pro-Russian President, who enjoys the most public trust, as well as with the Socialist party (PSRM) which stands behind him. Both politicians have created a particular system of government which is something like a political cartel[1]. The parties which make it up are conducting a largely superficial ideological-political struggle which stirs up huge emotions and polarises society. The dominant role in the tandem is played by Plahotniuc, who is much more powerful, as he controls the government and the parliamentary majority, and is also the main beneficiary of the current system.However, the system which has been created in Moldova is highly unstable and should be seen as short-term in nature. The greatest threat to Plahotniuc in the near future comes from the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of 2018. Given the PSRM’s high popularity and the low levels of support for Plahotniuc and his party, the election will probably be won by the Socialists, who could form a parliamentary majority under President Dodon. For this reason, Plahotniuc has been conducting an intense campaign to improve the PDM’s abysmal poll ratings, and is working to undermine the prerogatives of the President. There is no doubt that tensions on the Moldovan political arena will accumulate over the coming months. The upcoming parliamentary elections will decide not only the shape of the current system, but also the business and political future of Vlad Plahotniuc.

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Washington’s game of ‘sanctions poker’ Russia awaits America’s decisions

Washington’s game of ‘sanctions poker’ Russia awaits America’s decisions

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Washington; sanctions poker; Russia

On 29 January, the administration of President Donald Trump sent Congress a batch of documents which provide the basis for a possible further expansion of sanctions against Russia: a report on the Russian business and political elite, and a report on the consequences of selected financial sanctions. At the same time, the authorisation for the possible introduction of extraterritorial sanctions against entities from the Russian security sector and arms industry came into effect. This was in line with the requirements of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, No. 3364 from 2 August 2017. This Act covers US sanctions against Iran, Russia and North Korea. As of now, President Trump’s administration has not decided to implement any new sanctions against Russia, although it has the ability to do so at any time.

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Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: new times, old rules

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: new times, old rules

Author(s): Tomasz Piechal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

The war in Donbass and the loss of control over part of the country’s strongly industrialised areas resulted in the significance of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast increasing for Ukraine in both economic and political terms. This region already accounts for 20% of domestic industrial production. The fact that the military operation is taking place in neighbouring areas has turned Dnipropetrovsk Oblast into a direct supply base for the Ukrainian army and a migration target for many people from the conflict area. Furthermore, the situation in the oblast may serve as a good case study illustrating Ukraine’s problems on the regional level four years on from the Revolution of Dignity. Despite the unprecedented intensification of patriotic and pro-Ukrainian sentiments in the region, it has been impossible to initiate an overhaul of the elite. The old links between politics and business remain intact, politicians linked to the former Party of Regions still predominate in local governments, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast itself remains under the strong influence of local oligarchs. The election of Borys Filatov, a candidate of the post-Maidan forces, for the mayor of Dnipro gave rise to strong hopes that the dominance of these circles would be challenged. However, two years since his election, no major reform of the government system has been conducted in this city, corruption is still present on a broad scale, and the mayor himself has forged alliances with local representatives of the ancien régime. As a result, Filatov turned out to be not a pro-European reformer but a representative of the old regime who has skilfully adapted himself to the new post-revolution reality by employing pro-European rhetoric. Similar tendencies can be observed across the country but, considering its significance for Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is the most interesting region for describing this phenomenon.

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The beginning of the celebrations of the centenary of Ukraine’s independence

The beginning of the celebrations of the centenary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine’s independence

January 2018 saw the first celebrations commemorating the centenary of Ukraine’s fight for independence (1917–1921). The first two of these events, commemorating the declaration of independence (22 January 1918) and the battle of Kruty (29 January 1918), were surprisingly small-scale, especially with regard to the participation of Ukraine’s leadership in them. This may mean that the ruling elite has no concept of how to use the centenary to solidify its political position, also in the context of the presidential and parliamentary elections planned for 2019. At the same time, a profound shift in the narrative regarding the fight from a century ago has been evident in the media reports and educational materials published by the Ukrainian Institute for National Remembrance (UINP). The emphasis is no longer placed on the armed struggle and the continuation of the leftist tradition of the government of the Ukrainian People’s Republic; instead, priority is given to the efforts to build a state and create its institutions, including professional armed forces. The anarchist-revolutionary traditions are criticised, and the importance of order and discipline is highlighted.

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The Ulyukaev case – tension inside the Russian elite

Sprawa Ulukajewa – napięcia w rosyjskiej elicie

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ulyukaev case;

14 listopada 2016 roku został zatrzymany minister rozwoju gospodarczego Aleksiej Ulukajew, następnie Komitet Śledczy Federacji Rosyjskiej wszczął przeciwko niemu śledztwo w związku z podejrzeniem przyjęcia korzyści majątkowej (2 mln USD). Miała ona być gratyfikacją za wydanie przez ministerstwo pozytywnej opinii pozwalającej państwowemu koncernowi naftowemu Rosnieft’ przejąć 50,08% akcji koncernu Basznieft’ (finalizacja transakcji nastąpiła 12 października 2016 roku).Wiele wskazuje na to, że sprawa Ulukajewa jest elementem rywalizacji walczących ze sobą grup interesu w rosyjskiej elicie władzy. Inicjatorem operacji był prezes Rosniefti Igor Sieczin, a jej celem było uderzenie w blok ekonomiczny rządu, który krytykował ekspansję Rosniefti w rosyjskiej energetyce. Sam proces sądowy Ulukajewa wykorzystywany jest natomiast przez licznych oponentów Sieczina do osłabienia jego pozycji. Wydarzenia ostatniego roku pokazują jednak, że Igor Sieczin pozostaje kluczowym graczem sektora energetycznego Rosji. Swoją pozycję zawdzięcza on bliskim stosunkom z Władimirem Putinem i ważnej funkcji, jaką pełni Rosnieft’ w polityce wewnętrznej i zagranicznej państwa. Konflikt między grupami interesu jest integralnym elementem rosyjskiego systemu władzy, co pozwala prezydentowi Rosji odgrywać rolę arbitra w elicie władzy. Jest mało prawdopodobne, by zasady działania systemu uległy zasadniczej zmianie w najbliższych latach.

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Putin for the fourth time. No vision, no hope

Putin po raz czwarty. Bez pomysłu, bez nadziei

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Putin

On 6 December Vladimir Putin announced that he will run in the presidential election to be held on 18 March 2018. The absence of any change in the office of Russia’s president is rooted in the logic of a personalised system of governance that has emerged in Russia. It is also a demonstration of the government’s will to maintain the present course in domestic and foreign policy, one that is static and devoid of any scope for development. This is regardless of the fact that the government is struggling with increasingly serious economic and socio- -political challenges. These mainly include economic stagnation, continuously decreasing real incomes, and tense relations with the West, all combined with the lack of a coherent, positive ideology to legitimise Putin’s model. Against this backdrop, the election-related actions the government has taken to date are of a provisional and tactical nature: they focus on efforts to achieve a stabilisation of the socio-political situation and to eliminate possible threats to the ruling elite in the pre- and post-election period. At the same time, attempts are being made to make the electoral ritual more attractive, so as to boost turnout and thereby demonstrate a high approval rating for both the president and the model of governance he endorses.

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The Kremlin’s regional policy – a year of dismissing governors

Polityka regionalna Kremla – rok dymisji gubernatorów

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Kremlin

2017 has seen a wave of dismissals of the heads of Russia’s regions – the largest in the past five years. This is linked primarily to the Kremlin’s preparations for the presidential election. Personnel changes are among the few instruments the government has at its disposal to improve public support, given the dysfunctional governance model, growing dissatisfaction among the Russian public and the government team’s unwillingness to launch reforms. Even though it would appear that there is no single consistent algorithm for reshuffles on the level of governors (each decision to dismiss and nominate a governor has been considered separately), still the criteria that were taken into account in the first place included the socio-economic situation in the region, the degree of tension inside the regional elite, and public support for the incumbent governor. The Kremlin’s inability to formulate an appealing and credible election manifesto has been masked by a partial rejuvenation of the regional government staff and a temporary neutralisation of tension in some of the regions. Thus the staff ‘face-lift’ ahead of the election is aimed predominantly at building a positive image; the main goal is to give hope to the public, at least temporarily, of positive changes. The position of governors in the Russian government system has been gradually diminishing. Their competences and status have been consistently reduced as part of the process of increasing the centralisation of power in Russia. The logic of the personnel changes carried out in 2017 proves that the status of the governor’s office has been finally downgraded and depoliticised: the newly appointed governors are in fact middle managers and representatives of the nomenklatura delegated from the centre and at the full disposal of the central government.

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Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year

Mołdawski teatr polityczny. Układ sił w roku wyborczym

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Moldova

Since the end of 2015 Vlad Plahotniuc, an oligarch and the richest man in Moldova, leader of the ruling, nominally pro-European Democratic Party, has been de facto the only person who counts in Moldovan politics and business. He is an extremely unpopular politician who has been accused of transforming Moldova into a classic ‘captured state’. However, he has been forced to work with Igor Dodon, the country’s nominally opposition and pro-Russian President, who enjoys the most public trust, as well as with the Socialist party (PSRM) which stands behind him. Both politicians have created a particular system of government which is something like a political cartel. The parties which make it up are conducting a largely superficial ideological-political struggle which stirs up huge emotions and polarises society. The dominant role in the tandem is played by Plahotniuc, who is much more powerful, as he controls the government and the parliamentary majority, and is also the main beneficiary of the current system.

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Washington’s game of ‘sanctions poker’ Russia awaits America’s decisions

Sankcyjny poker Waszyngtonu. Rosja w oczekiwaniu na amerykańskie decyzje

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: USA; sankcje; Donald Trump; Rosja

On 29 January, the administration of President Donald Trump sent Congress a batch of documents which provide the basis for a possible further expansion of sanctions against Russia: a report on the Russian business and political elite, and a report on the consequences of selected financial sanctions. At the same time, the authorisation for the possible introduction of extraterritorial sanctions against entities from the Russian security sector and arms industry came into effect. This was in line with the requirements of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, No. 3364 from 2 August 2017. This Act covers US sanctions against Iran, Russia and North Korea. As of now, President Trump’s administration has not decided to implement any new sanctions against Russia, although it has the ability to do so at any time.

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Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: new times, old rules

Obwód dniepropetrowski: nowe czasy, stare zasady

Author(s): Tomasz Piechal / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Obwód dniepropetrowski

The war in Donbass and the loss of control over part of the country’s strongly industrialised areas resulted in the significance of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast increasing for Ukraine in both economic and political terms. This region already accounts for 20% of domestic industrial production. The fact that the military operation is taking place in neighbouring areas has turned Dnipropetrovsk Oblast into a direct supply base for the Ukrainian army and a migration target for many people from the conflict area. Furthermore, the situation in the oblast may serve as a good case study illustrating Ukraine’s problems on the regional level four years on from the Revolution of Dignity. Despite the unprecedented intensification of patriotic and pro-Ukrainian sentiments in the region, it has been impossible to initiate an overhaul of the elite. The old links between politics and business remain intact, politicians linked to the former Party of Regions still predominate in local governments, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast itself remains under the strong influence of local oligarchs. The election of Borys Filatov, a candidate of the post-Maidan forces, for the mayor of Dnipro gave rise to strong hopes that the dominance of these circles would be challenged. However, two years since his election, no major reform of the government system has been conducted in this city, corruption is still present on a broad scale, and the mayor himself has forged alliances with local representatives of the ancien régime. As a result, Filatov turned out to be not a pro-European reformer but a representative of the old regime who has skilfully adapted himself to the new post-revolution reality by employing pro-European rhetoric. Similar tendencies can be observed across the country but, considering its significance for Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is the most interesting region for describing this phenomenon.

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The beginning of the celebrations of the centenary of Ukraine’s independence

Początek obchodów stulecia niepodległości Ukrainy

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraina; niepodległość

January 2018 saw the first celebrations commemorating the centenary of Ukraine’s fight for independence (1917–1921). The first two of these events, commemorating the declaration of independence (22 January 1918) and the battle of Kruty (29 January 1918), were surprisingly small-scale, especially with regard to the participation of Ukraine’s leadership in them. This may mean that the ruling elite has no concept of how to use the centenary to solidify its political position, also in the context of the presidential and parliamentary elections planned for 2019. At the same time, a profound shift in the narrative regarding the fight from a century ago has been evident in the media reports and educational materials published by the Ukrainian Institute for National Remembrance (UINP). The emphasis is no longer placed on the armed struggle and the continuation of the leftist tradition of the government of the Ukrainian People’s Republic; instead, priority is given to the efforts to build a state and create its institutions, including professional armed forces. The anarchist-revolutionary traditions are criticised, and the importance of order and discipline is highlighted.

More...

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A new opening in relations between the EU and the Western Balkans

A new opening in relations between the EU and the Western Balkans

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Western Balkans

The EU-Western Balkans summit held on 17 May in Sofia – the first such event since 2003 – is one example of the EU’s increasing interest in the Balkan states which aspire to membership. On 6 February, the European Commission presented its new strategy for its Western Balkans policy. Its desire to become more closely involved in the region has also been indicated by visits from the EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and the head of the European Council Donald Tusk to all the countries in the region during recent months. This activity on the part of EU institutions has been accompanied by actions targeted at the Balkans by member states under the aegis of the Berlin process, which focuses on economic cooperation. This new dynamic in the EU’s policies towards the Western Balkans is the result of a growing awareness in Brussels of the risks resulting from the crisis in the enlargement policy, which is the EU’s main instrument for ensuring lasting stability in the region.

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Rebuilding Germany’s air defence capabilities: on the eve of crucial decisions

Odbudowa obrony powietrznej Niemiec: w przededniu kluczowych decyzji

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Germany; air defence

Gdy po 2014 roku NATO ponownie skoncentrowało się na wzmacnianiu obrony zbiorowej, naziemna obrona powietrzna bardzo krótkiego, krótkiego oraz średniego zasięgu okazała się pożądaną (i brakującą) zdolnością w siłach zbrojnych państw Sojuszu. Niemcy, które ponownie przystosowują Bundeswehrę do udziału w konwencjonalnych konfliktach zbrojnych, również nadrabiają braki w tym zakresie. W latach 2018–2019 niemieckie Ministerstwo Obrony ma podjąć przełomowe decyzje dotyczące dwóch najważniejszych programów obrony powietrznej – NNbS i TLVS.

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