Again, the Visible Hand. Slobodan Milošević's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute (ICG Yugoslavia Report No. 2 - - 6 May 1998)

Again, the Visible Hand. Slobodan Milošević's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute (ICG Yugoslavia Report No. 2 - - 6 May 1998)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slobodan Milošević; Serbia and Kosovo;

This International Crisis Group (ICG) report describes the complex political forces at work in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and examines how they are propelling Kosovo toward war. The report, prepared by an ICG field analyst based in Belgrade, attempts to explain why Milošević has so far opted to ignore the seemingly compelling logic of peace and adopted a confrontational policy toward Kosovo's Albanians and the Contact Group. The report also shows how the disunity of the Contact Group has wasted crucial time, and it projects future short-term developments in Kosovo by carrying forward the thrust of the logic inherent in the present positions of Milošević and Kosovo's Albanians.

Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic’s gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic’s gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ibrahim Rugova; Slobodan Milošević;

When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo’s Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start. The Milosevic-Rugova meeting took place in the aftermath of six months of escalating violence in Kosovo between Serbian police and a separatist Albanian militia, known as the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). It also followed intense US shuttle diplomacy under the auspices of Richard Holbrooke, architect of the Bosnian peace settlement.

Media in Bosnia and Herzegovina: How international support can be more effective (ICG Bosnia Report No. 21 - 18 March 1997)

Media in Bosnia and Herzegovina: How international support can be more effective (ICG Bosnia Report No. 21 - 18 March 1997)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Media in Bosnia and Herzegovina;

The media approach of international organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unimaginative at best. The principal point of contact with journalists is a daily press conference which is held in English without translation. While the foreign press corps is well catered for, Bosnian journalists feel that they are ignored and consider the international community’s approach imperialistic. ICG proposes a series of measures for the international community which, if implemented, could help change the role of the Bosnian media from one which is exacerbating tension to one which could contribute to restoring trust between the country’s peoples.

Going nowhere Fast. Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Going nowhere Fast. Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees; displaced persons;

Apart from stopping the fighting, silencing the guns and separating forces, the single clearest promise of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) was that Bosnian refugees and internally displaced persons would be able to return home. However, the number of returnees has to date fallen far short of expectations. More than sixteen months after the DPA came into force, only about 250,000 refugees and internally displaced persons have actually made it home, almost exclusively to areas in which they form part of the majority group. And even that figure portrays an artificially rosy picture, since a further 80,000 people have been displaced in the same period, largely during the transfer of territory between the two Entities.

House Burnings: Obstruction of the Right to Return to Drvar

House Burnings: Obstruction of the Right to Return to Drvar

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Drvar;

On the night of 2-3 May 1997, some 25 houses were set ablaze in the Croat-controlled municipality of Drvar, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation). The arsons occurred after an international delegation headed by Federation mediator Dr Christian Schwarz-Schilling met with local authorities and other international agencies earlier in the day to discuss the return of displaced Serbs to the area. With this report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) hopes to contribute to the international community’s as well as Bosnian authorities’ efforts to ascertain the facts surrounding the May incident, responsibility thereof, and suggests additional measures to prevent future such incidents.

MACEDONIA REPORT. The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict

MACEDONIA REPORT. The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Macedonia;

Macedonia's position in the southern Balkans, especially in light of the Bosnian war and its aftermath, has attracted considerable international attention. Governmental, non-governmental, and supra-national organisations of all sorts are engaged in preventive action intended to keep Macedonia from collapsing and to bolster the country's ability to develop an integrated and pluralistic civil society. Although such efforts have contributed to the maintenance of relative stability, Macedonia has not overcome many of its political, social and economic difficulties. Macedonia's fundamental problems and the increasing occurrence of incendiary events, have given rise to growing international concern about the country's future. This report stems from such international concern. It is intended first as an introduction to the Republic of Macedonia, and second as a baseline for updates. The primary objective of the author is to examine current conditions in the republic and to offer some recommendations that address the country's most pressing problems.

Dayton: Two Years On. A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia

Dayton: Two Years On. A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Dayton agreement,

The about-turn in international policy is, in part, a product of the change in government in Britain as well as the appointment of Madeleine Albright as US Secretary of State. It also reflects a realisation that NATO forces will only be able to make a dignified withdrawal from Bosnia and Herzegovina once the groundwork for a lasting peace has been laid. Maintaining a cease-fire for two and a half years and holding elections is simply not enough to prevent the country from slipping back into war as soon as international peacekeepers pull out. While the more robust international approach to implementing the DPA has begun to pay dividends, it has also highlighted the magnitude of the remaining task necessary to rebuild Bosnia and Herzegovina after four years of war.

A Peace, or just a Cease-Fire? The military Equation in Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina

A Peace, or just a Cease-Fire? The military Equation in Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper concerns three military topics that are seldom raised in relation to one another but that cannot meaningfully be assessed in isolation. Taken together, they are likely to have a decisive effect on the future of the DPA: the balance of military forces among the former combatants on a sub-regional level; the US-sponsored Train and Equip programme; and the NATO exit strategy. The balance of military forces among the former combatants, including the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and Croatia, has been the focus of a sub-regional arms reduction process monitored by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Levels were set at a ratio of 5:2:2, based on the approximate size of the populations of FRY, Croatia and Bosnia, further divided on a 2:1 ratio between the Federation and Republika Srpska. On 21 November 1997, the OSCE announced that all four parties had met their reduction liabilities by the 31 October deadline. Republika Srpska and the FRY destroyed the most weapons but remained at or near the allowed ceilings, since they had by far the largest excess of weapons at the start of the process. The Federation was only required to destroy artillery.

A HOLLOW PROMISE? The Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc

A HOLLOW PROMISE? The Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Drvar; Bosansko Grahovo; Glamoc; displaced Serbs;

In Bosnia’s local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.

REBUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SARAJEVO: The Need for Minority Returns

REBUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SARAJEVO: The Need for Minority Returns

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Minority returnees;

To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina’s rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, ist citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace. (ICG Bosnia Project - Report No 30)

Brcko: What Bosnia Could Be

Brcko: What Bosnia Could Be

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brčko;

The fate of the Brčko area, whether it should be in the Federation or Republika Srpska, was considered too contentious to be resolved in the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and was left to binding arbitration. The Arbitral Tribunal announced an interim decision on 14 February 1997: the Tribunal retained jurisdiction on the matter for another year; maintained the territorial status quo leaving the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL) which divides the pre-war municipality; enumerated obligations for the parties to fulfil, including the return and reintegration of displaced person and the establishment of a multi-ethnic administration in part of the municipality held by Republika Srpska; provided for the establishment of the office of an International Supervisor to oversee the implementation of those obligations; and conditioned the final outcome of the arbitration on the conduct of the parties during the year. The Tribunal is scheduled to give a final ruling by 15 March this year

KOSOVO SPRING (ICG Report Pristina- Sarajevo)

KOSOVO SPRING (ICG Report Pristina- Sarajevo)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia and Kosovo;

The report examines the evolution of relations between Serbs and Kosovars in Kosovo, the importance of the region to both communities and their competing claims. Since 1989 when Serbia forcibly stripped Kosovo of autonomy, a parallel Kosovar society has emerged within the province which exists almost completely outside the Serbian state. The report assesses the significance and sustainability of the parallel institutions, in particular the education and health care systems. It also critically analyses Kosovar politics and the policies of the undisputed Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova who charted the non-violent course which, until very recently, all Kosovars obediently followed. If Kosovar elections do go ahead as scheduled on 22 March, Rugova will surely be re-elected president, since he is the only candidate standing. Special sections are devoted to the economy, media and the Kosovo Liberation Army, UCK. The report considers Kosovo in its regional context, in relations to Serbia, Yugoslavia, Albania and the entire Balkan region. It examines initial diplomatic attempts to head off further fighting and find a solution. And it analyses the relative merits of the various solutions -- ranging from maintaining the status quo to full independence -- which are currently on offer. In a final section ICG presents a series of recommendations which, if taken up by policy-makers, could contribute to an eventual settlement in Kosovo. Appendices at the end include a chronology and a who’s who of Kosovo political life.

Minority Return or Mass Relocation? (ICG Bosnia Project - Report Nº 33)

Minority Return or Mass Relocation? (ICG Bosnia Project - Report Nº 33)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: minority returns;

International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.

THE KONJIC CONUNDRUM: Why Minorities have failed to return to Model Open City

THE KONJIC CONUNDRUM: Why Minorities have failed to return to Model Open City

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Konjic Open City; minority returns;

On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR’s approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.

THE VIEW FROM TIRANA. The Albanian Dimension of the Kosovo Crisis (ICG Balkans Report No. 36)

THE VIEW FROM TIRANA. The Albanian Dimension of the Kosovo Crisis (ICG Balkans Report No. 36)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania’s isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.

THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN MACEDONIA: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia (ICG Balkans Report N° 38)

THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN MACEDONIA: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia (ICG Balkans Report N° 38)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Macedonia; NATO Intervention; OSCE Monitoring;

As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country’s very existence may be imperilled.

CHANGING COURSE?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics (ICG Balkans Report N° 39)

CHANGING COURSE?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics (ICG Balkans Report N° 39)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Croatia and Hercegovina;

The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman. Long-standing divisions between those who emphasise western Herzegovina and those who wish to secure the future of Croats throughout Bosnia have led to a split in the HDZBiH and the formation of the New Croat Initiative (Nova Hrvatska inicijativa or NHI), led by the Croat member of the joint Bosnian presidency, Kresimir Zubak. The rift in the HDZBiH widened after the death, at the beginning of May 1998, of the Croatian defence minister, Gojko Susak, which left the HDZBiH without a figure with the authority to hold together its different strands. At the HDZBiH congress in May 1998, the party's hard-liners, against Tudjman's wishes, secured the election of the Bosnian Federation's defence minister, Ante Jelavic, as party president, defeating the comparatively moderate candidate favoured by Zubak, Bozo Ljubic.

IMPUNITY IN DRVAR (ICG Balkans Report N° 40)

IMPUNITY IN DRVAR (ICG Balkans Report N° 40)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: DRVAR riots; Croatian nationalism in Drvar;

Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar -- whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb -- offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia. In the wake of the riots, key international officials flocked to Drvar, among them High Representative Carlos Westendorp and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, General Wesley Clark, as well as the heads of most of the international organisations in Bosnia, and even several US Congressmen. All stated emphatically that violence was unacceptable, that the right of Serbs to return would be supported, and that those responsible would be brought to justice.

KOSOVO’S LONG HOT SUMMER: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report No.41)

KOSOVO’S LONG HOT SUMMER: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report No.41)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: UCK; Kosovo;

This report examines the evolution of the UCK, its genesis, military fortunes, political impact and prospects. It considers the current humanitarian crisis. And it analyses the internal dynamics of ethnic Albanian politics in and concerning Kosovo and their impact on the options that the international community may contemplate to promote a political solution to the conflict.

DOING DEMOCRACY A DISSERVICE: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (ICG Balkans Report N° 42)

DOING DEMOCRACY A DISSERVICE: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (ICG Balkans Report N° 42)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Democracy in Bosnia and Hercegovina;

The stakes in Bosnia’s forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which “support Dayton” and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.