The EU’s existential crisis, averted with compromise, for today

The EU’s existential crisis, averted with compromise, for today

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Since my contribution to the paper on 8 April ended with the EU facing a huge existential choice, to be resolved the following day, we should update the story. On 9 April a compromise was reached, as usual, as many Brussels old-timers would say. Finance ministers agreed on three measures mobilising €540 billion or about 3.6% of GDP:

The risks of Russia’s “geopolitical” credit to Moldova

The risks of Russia’s “geopolitical” credit to Moldova

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Igor Dodon; Moldovan-Russian relations;

In the eve of Easter celebration (17 April), the Moldovan President Igor Dodon rushed to display on one of his social media accounts the earlier unseen text of the agreement with Russia for a €200 million loan. Nobody else than the Moldovan Ambassador in Russia Andrei Neguta could sign the agreement on behalf of the country as the official travels to Moscow are cancelled because of pandemic. The agreement was negotiated without the scrutiny of the parliament, which normally is notified about such negotiations. Thus, the conditions embedded in this agreement were unknown.

A post-Coronavirus Narrative for the Eastern Partnership

A post-Coronavirus Narrative for the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Civod-19;

The coronavirus crisis, and the ‘Green Deal’ and digital agendas that will be resumed as soon as the pandemic subsides, are transformational shocks to the EU and ist relations with its close neighbours. These shocks could become the basis for important and positive developments in the EU’s neighbourhood policies. The EU is at work on unprecedented trillion euro responses to protect its own internal solidarity and stability. It has also announced significant measures of grant funding for all six Eastern Partnership states (totalling €626), and comprehensive macroeconomic loan assistance (totalling €3 billion) to the democracies of its neighbourhood, including the three associated states of Eastern Europe (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) and the Balkans together.

European Union Competition Policy during and beyond the Corona Crisis: Key Takeaways for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

European Union Competition Policy during and beyond the Corona Crisis: Key Takeaways for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author(s): Ketevan Zukakishvili / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19;

The COVID-19 outbreak is a dire public health emergency. At the same time, the economic impact of the corona crisis cannot be overlooked. To temper the economic turmoil, the European Union (EU) has swiftly adapted its competition framework to the exceptional circumstances. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia could learn from the EU experience. Beyond the pandemic, there are many open questions about the direction of this core EU policy. The author believes that an expansion of cooperation between the EU and the three associated states in this field is necessary to address the uncertainties and changes surrounding the future of competition policy.

Culture: Yet Another Omission from the EU's Thoughts on the Future of the Eastern Partnership

Culture: Yet Another Omission from the EU's Thoughts on the Future of the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Maria Alesina / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership;

The recent Joint Communication of March 2020 outlined how cooperation with the EU’s Eastern partners may be envisaged after 2020, which in May was followed by Council Conclusions. In contrast to the EU’s May 2018 Joint Communication on culture in the framework of its international relations, the cultural component is almost neglected in these most recent documents. In the Communication, cooperation in this domain is limited to a short remark, which laconically acknowledges the potential of culture and creative industries ‘as engines for sustainable social and economic development’, and asserts the EU’s intention to support its partners in maximizing this (p. 8). Added as a final note to the sub-section on the sustainable economy, particularly related to investing in people, it provides no details on specific dimensions, objectives, and instruments of the EU’s engagement. The Council Conclusions generally ignore this question as such. Such a brief (if any) attention is especially striking in the light of the strategic importance of cultural for the overall EU influence in the region.

COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate impact on the Ukrainian economy

COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate impact on the Ukrainian economy

Author(s): Vitaliy Kravchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19;

The Covid-19 pandemic has already inflicted severe damage on the Ukrainian economy despite relatively mild public health implications so far. The number of new Covid-19 cases seems to have stabilized over the last few weeks, and the number of hospitalizations does not seem to strain the healthcare system. The disease containment was achieved through the two-month shutdown of public transportation, education, entertainment and the non-essential retail sector and social distancing requirements.

Is the E40 river route connecting the Baltic and Black Seas a good idea?

Is the E40 river route connecting the Baltic and Black Seas a good idea?

Author(s): Iryna Kosse / Language(s): English

The idea to connect the Baltic and Black Seas through waterways reviving the route existing in the Soviet times was first suggested in 1996 and supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). In 2009, Ukraine joined the multilateral treaty “European Agreement on Main Inland Waterways of International Importance” (AGN) that again underlined the importance of this route. The E40 river route connects Baltic and Black Seas through Dnipro, Prypiat, West Bug, Bug Canal, and the Vistula rivers bridging the Polish port of Gdańsk and Ukrainian port of Kherson.

The Advent of Biopolitics: Repercussion for the EU, Russia, and Eastern Partnership Countries

The Advent of Biopolitics: Repercussion for the EU, Russia, and Eastern Partnership Countries

Author(s): Andrey Makarychev / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19;

The COVID-19 had significantly changed the structure of world politics by shifting its core from issues of geopolitics to what in the academic literature for quite some time has been known as global biopolitics . As a concept, biopolitics implies 2 political strategies and calculations based on protecting human lives, taking care of people and managing public health, medicine and hygiene, and advancing the role of an apolitical civil society. However, the global scope of the pandemic so far did not foster political consolidation among key international actors. On the contrary, the biopolitical momentum triggered more diversity and fragmentation in the world. Dynamics across the triangle EU–Russia–Eastern Partnership (EaP) states seem to be quite illustrative of this trend (as also looking with European binoculars across the Atlantic at the responses to the pandemic of Trump and Bolsonaro).

The EU’s possible response to a post-Lukashenko Belarus

The EU’s possible response to a post-Lukashenko Belarus

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lukashenko; Belarus;

Everybody can see now that Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus is fatally wounded. His irresponsible non-management of the Covid-19, the spontaneous irruption onto the scene of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as a Joan of Arc symbol of the desire for change, and then the spectacular falsification of the presidential election on 9 August, and finally the failed attempt at brutal repression of the protests over this last week, has sealed his fate. Only we do not yet know quite when he will go, and how he will be replaced. But the scene is set for change, and the European Union has to work out some broad lines of how it should respond to some possible or likely scenarios.

Why the EU should now consolidate its front with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Why the EU should now consolidate its front with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

With half of the six Eastern Partnership states now in flames, either metaphorically in the case of Belarus or literally with war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU’s diplomacy seems to be predominantly preoccupied with what realistically it cannot do to resolve these conflicts. On the other hand it could and should signal now its will and preparedness to strengthen the ‘other half’ of the Eastern Partnership, namely its Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. While all these three countries have their pressing problems to manage, the main point has to be this. These three countries now inhabit a different Europe, one that is committed to modern European norms and values, and in which they are structurally and deeply engaged with the EU in comprehensive programmes based on legally binding treaty commitments embracing all three classic strategic dimensions - economics, politics and security.

The new political season in Ukraine: with a rollback of reforms?

The new political season in Ukraine: with a rollback of reforms?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Slightly more than a year has passed since the President Volodymyr Zelensky consolidated the legislative and executive powers in Ukraine. Elected on popular promises to dismantle the old “system” of corruption and injustice in the country, Zelensky is having a hard time to live up to optimistic expectations . After the reset of the government in March and subsequent reshuffling of management in major state agencies, almost none of the reformers who were initially a part of the president’s team preserved their seats. While the government’s response on the COVID-19 pandemic is far from being effective, there is also increasing concern over attempts to undermine one of the crucial institutional accomplishments of the post-Euromaidan period – the state’s anti-corruption system.

Elections amid the Surge of the Pandemic

Elections amid the Surge of the Pandemic

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia 2020-elections;

What’s at stake? In the October 31st parliamentary elections Georgia will decide whether it keeps the government of the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by its billionaire leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, or a coalition of the opposition parties. As usual in Georgian elections, there are no obvious policy differences between the contenders, and even if there are some, voters’ decisions will not be based on them. Critics claim that Ivanishvili’s team is not robust and consistent in pursuing Georgia’s pro-western course, and may have hidden pro-Russian leanings – though GD leaders angrily deny this.

Three ways the October local elections are unique for Ukraine

Three ways the October local elections are unique for Ukraine

Author(s): Vitaliy Kravchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine 2020-elections;

The local elections on Sunday, October 25 in Ukraine stand out for several reasons. First, the voting occurs during the Covid-19 epidemics, which so far shows no signs of subsiding. Second, these elections may be the most partisan in Ukrainian history. Third, these local elections are also most significant in the context of the decentralization reform that started in 2014.

“Inevitable” geopolitical elections in Moldova – the Europeans bet on opposition, Russia favours the incumbent

“Inevitable” geopolitical elections in Moldova – the Europeans bet on opposition, Russia favours the incumbent

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova 2020-elections;

The geopolitical saga of the Moldovan presidential elections has commenced. Before the voting day on November 1st, 2020, both political voices from the EU and Russia have picked their favorites. The EU looks at the elections as yet another test, after which it will decide how to calibrate its financial assistance. The Russian politicians are shaping instead a narrative that aims to counter the Western presence. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (M id.ru, Oct. 2020 ), and Sergei Narishkin (Gazeta.ru, Oct. 2020 ) who leads the Foreign Special Service of Russia, have insinuated that the US would help the opposition to start a “coloured revolution”, if the pro-Russian candidate claims the victory. Moscow is using the comparison with the ongoing power struggles in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan to illustrate what can happen in Moldova.

The ruling of the (Un)Constitutional Court of Ukraine: is there a way out?

The ruling of the (Un)Constitutional Court of Ukraine: is there a way out?

Author(s): Mykhailo Zhernakov / Language(s): English

Keywords: rule of law in Ukraine;

On October 27 2020, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) adopted decision 13-p/2020 on the unconstitutionality of the art. 366-1 of the Criminal Code and the system of electronic declaration of assets. In doing so, the CCU dismantled in a blatant and unlawful manner a big part of Ukraine’s anti-corruption infrastructure. The constitutional submission that resulted in this decision was filed by 47 members of the Parliament, mainly pro-Russian “Opposition Platform for Life” faction.

Moldovan presidential elections: Sandu wins the run-off, while Dodon faces a “checkmate“

Moldovan presidential elections: Sandu wins the run-off, while Dodon faces a “checkmate“

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova 2020 November-elections;

The outcome of the second round of the presidential election on Sunday 14 November saw the victory of Maia Sandu as the 6 th president of Moldova, who is also the first female president of the country. More than 1.6 million voters have opted for a change of the president. The runoff attracted the highest number of voters in the country’s history since independence, both within the country and abroad – 1.650.131 and 260.079 voters respectively. Despite the pandemic, the turnout in the runoff was only about 1% lower than in the 2016 presidential elections - 53.3%. Thus, the former Prime Minister Maia Sandu has overcome both for the 2016 defeat in the previous presidential elections, and the 2019 no-confidence vote staged by the Socialists to end her short-lived government.

Ukraine stuck with challenges: what are the chances for economic recovery?

Ukraine stuck with challenges: what are the chances for economic recovery?

Author(s): Oleksandra Betliy / Language(s): English

2020 is a year of full-scale challenges for Ukraine, from the political and economic to the institutional and constitutional. The year is not over yet and the risks for the year-end remain high. They are primarily related to the high fiscal gap that now confronts the government and possible tighter quarantine measures (or even lockdown), which would hamper economic development. As a result, the outlook for Ukraine is uncertain even though most forecasts envisage economic growth of about 4% in 2021.

Results of the local elections in Ukraine: A new political landscape on the ground?

Results of the local elections in Ukraine: A new political landscape on the ground?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

The local elections in Ukraine that started on October 25 are not officially over yet. While the majority of mayors and local councils were sworn in, the Central Election Commission is still finalising the results in some districts. Moreover, in several communities, elections were rescheduled for early 2021. Nevertheless, it is already possible to assess available results of the voting and its implications for the political landscape of Ukraine

The second war over Nagorno-Karabakh, viewed from Baku

The second war over Nagorno-Karabakh, viewed from Baku

Author(s): Shahla Ismayil / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh; Azerbaijan and Armenia;

The second major war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh started on 27 September 2020. Recourse to a military solution of the conflict was no surprise to society in Azerbaijan, which considered the 28-year peace talks a diplomatic failure. The military emotions escalated in Azerbaijan earlier in July 2020, when the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, located 250 km away from the frontline, was shelled by Armenian military forces for several days, targeting the civilian population; hence the restart of the so-called “Nagorno-Karabakh War II” was not unexpected in Azerbaijan.

Implications of the second Nagorno Karabakh war for Armenia

Implications of the second Nagorno Karabakh war for Armenia

Author(s): Benyamin Poghosyan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno Karabakh;

The second Nagorno Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of ist territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3,000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate. The defeat of Armenia will have profound economic and political implications for Armenia and will affect Armenia's foreign and defense policy.