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EU Extends Sanctions on Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 21 June, the EU adopted the fourth package of sanctions against representatives of the Belarusian regime and companies associated with it, and on 24 June, the European Council approved economic restrictions on Belarus. These are the most far-reaching measures taken so far by the EU and the most severe for the Belarusian regime. It can be expected that the retaliatory measures adopted by Alexander Lukashenka will be aimed primarily at Belarusian civil society and neighbouring countries such as Poland.

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Hungary Takes Over the V4 Presidency

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

On 1 July, Hungary took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It will focus on the economic recovery after the pandemic. At the same time, its management of the group’s activities will serve to promote the country’s views in the discussion on the future of Europe.

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The OPEC Dispute and the Arab-Saudi Rivalry

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The OPEC+ talks planned for 5 July regarding oil-extraction policy have been cancelled because of the SaudiEmirati dispute. The authorities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have rejected a proposal to extend production limits until the end of 2022. This is another event in the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which will increase the volatility of oil prices.

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The Sixth Summit of the Three Seas Initiative in Sofia

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 8-9 July, the sixth presidential summit of the Three Seas Initiative, accompanied by the third business forum, took place in Sofia. It confirmed the ambitions to expand and tighten cooperation, the challenges facing the TSI - primarily financial - as well as a declaration of support for the initiative by the new U.S. administration. The seventh TSI summit will be held next year in Riga.

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President Sandu’s Party Wins the Elections in Moldova

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 11 July, early parliamentary elections in Moldova brought a decisive victory for the opposition pro-president Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This would enable it to take over independent rule and start the announced European-oriented reforms.

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EU Court Sides with Poland in OPAL Dispute

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

On 15 July, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) ruled in favour of Poland in a dispute over the legal status of the OPAL pipeline. The verdict means that Gazprom will not be allowed to use the full capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is connected to OPAL. The company will challenge this while also arguing that the completion and commissioning of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) is necessary for increased gas supplies to the EU.

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U.S. - Germany Nord Stream 2 Deal

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The U.S. and Germany have reached an agreement to end their dispute over the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Their joint communiqué of 21 July suggests that the U.S. administration will abandon sanctions against NS2, which will facilitate its completion and commissioning. Germany pledges to take action to minimise the risks posed by the project, above all to Ukraine. The agreement rightly highlights Russia’s aggressive actions, but will not be able to address them. In the wider perspective, it will not deter Russia from continuing its aggressive policy.

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Crisis of Democracy in Tunisia

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 25 July, Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and assumed full executive power. This is the most serious political crisis in the country since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. The president’s actions may interrupt the democratisation of Tunisia, which will require a reformulation of EU policy towards this country.

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Vaccination First - New Anti-COVID Rules in France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The July surge in infections of the Delta variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus in France prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce new restrictions, which this time mainly affect unvaccinated people. Although the extension of the obligation to present a health pass when using services, included in the amendment to the health bill adopted on 25 July, has sparked protests, polls show that the majority of the public supports the new regulations. The priority of the French authorities is to avoid a new lockdown in the autumn as it would threaten the recovery of the economy and Macron’s re-election.

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U.S. and Russia Re-launch Strategic Stability Dialogue

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 28 July in Geneva, U.S. and Russian delegations, led by deputy foreign ministers, held strategic stability talks, the first such meeting since October 2020 and since Joe Biden took office as president. Both sides assessed the meeting positively and stated they want to continue the dialogue, but they differ substantially on the priorities in future negotiations. The possible scope should be indicated by the topics of expert working groups, which are to be determined at the next session at the end of September.

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Taliban Victory in Afghanistan: Internal and International Consequences

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

On 15 August, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. After President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, current and former Afghan politicians formed a Transition Council and started negations with the Taliban on the formation of a new government.

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The Consequences of the Taliban Victory in Afghanistan for U.S. Policy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 15 August, after a lightning-fast military offensive, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. The decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan contributed to the Taliban’s rapid success. The Trump administration had negotiated an agreement with the insurgents, leading President Biden - contrary to the recommendations of military commanders to maintain some forces - decided to stick to the agreed timetable. However, the speed with which the Afghan government and security forces collapsed has undermined the prestige of the United States. The situation in Afghanistan will be used by politicians from the Republican Party in the campaigns ahead of the Congressional elections next fall.

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Significance of the Immigrant Influx at the Border with Belarus to Regional Security

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

EU and NATO countries bordering Belarus, in particular Lithuania, have been struggling for several weeks with an influx of irregular migrants, induced by the Belarusian authorities to try to cross the border into the EU. Moreover, the regime may try to use the situation in Afghanistan and refugees from that conflict to exacerbate the border crisis. This would worsen the already tense relations between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia on one side and Belarus on the other, and across the region.

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New Negotiations to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

On 13 August in Mexico, delegations from the government of Nicolás Maduro and Unified Platform of four main Venezuelan opposition parties, signed a memorandum on new talks. The success of this fifth attempt since 2014 to overcome the multidimensional crisis in Venezuela will depend in particular on government concessions, which will be influenced by the U.S. and the EU’s readiness to lift sanctions, among other factors.

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The Crimea Platform Summit

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

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Ukrainian President’s Visit to the United States

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

On 31 July to 2 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. During his stay, the U.S. announced support for Ukraine worth a total of $117.5 million. Contrary to Ukrainian hopes, the visit did not result in any breakthrough in the key areas for Ukraine of deeper cooperation with NATO or compensation for the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).

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Putin’s United Russia Party Named Winner of the Russian Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

After three days of voting in parliamentary elections in Russia, the ruling United Russia was declared the winner on 19 September. The course of the campaigns, the manipulation of the voting, and a crackdown on opposition candidates testify to the intensification of authoritarian rule in Russia.

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AUKUS: Australia, UK, and the U.S. Strengthen Defence Cooperation

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 15 September, the leaders of Australia, UK, and the U.S. announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The deepening cooperation in this area between Australia and the U.S. will strengthen the network of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific crucial for counteracting China’s growing military potential. However, by keeping the AUKUS negotiations secret from EU allies and forcing France out of its contract to provide non-nuclear submarines to Australia, tensions in transatlantic relations have flared again, which undermines the prospects of coherent U.S. and EU policy towards the Indo-Pacific.

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Bundestag Elections - An SPD Victory and the Subtle Charm of Coalition Negotiations

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany won the Bundestag elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, it does not mean the Social Democrats will lead the government - CDU/CSU still can form a new coalition after it took 24.1%. Any coalition will most likely include the Greens (14.8%) and FDP (11.5%). With the participation of as many as three parties in the negotiations, Germany’s next government may not be formed until the turn of 2021 to 2022.

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Iraq after the Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq indicate that the political scene will remain fragmented, which will hamper the formation of a new government. In addition, the record low turnout (41%) and the lack of significant changes on the political scene compared to before the 2019 mass protests will weaken the legitimacy of the next government. Although the political grouping that relies most on anti-Western rhetoric achieved its best results in modern elections, Iraq will strive to maintain a neutral position in the face of U.S.- Iran rivalry.

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