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Underestimated, Yet Irreplaceable: The OSCE Maintains Focus on the Human Dimension

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the escalation of conflicts in the South Caucasus and Central Asia undermine the effectiveness of OSCE, usually assessed through the prism of its politico-military dimension. However, the organisation’s activities within the human dimension confirm its purpose. While OSCE members generally agree that lasting security cannot be achieved without respect for human rights and democratic institutions, their practice raises many concerns. In this context, the OSCE remains in many cases the only support for human rights defenders in non-democratic countries.

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U.S. National Defense Strategy Prioritises Deterrence of China, Then Russia

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

The new U.S. defence strategy prioritises the competition with China more clearly than previously and puts deterrence of Russia second. The U.S. is to still contribute to NATO with advanced capabilities but also is seeking a substantial increase in the conventional defence potential of the rest of the Allies. This is to strengthen deterrence by ensuring that NATO is able to defend against Russian aggression even if a majority of U.S. forces are engaged in a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

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Iran Assists Russia with Weapons - the Military and Political Consequences

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran is strengthening its informal alliance with Russia despite its initially cautious position on the war against Ukraine. The use of Iranian drones by Russia has been confirmed multiple times, and there are increased signals about the delivery to Russia of ballistic missiles. These systems will marginally affect the unfavourable military situation for Russia, but they likely will increase damage to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the risk of another refugee wave. In this context, there is an urgent need for assistance for Ukraine with counter-drone and missile defences, as well as a change of EU policy towards Iran on the issues of non-proliferation, its nuclear programme, and the internal situation.

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Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.

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Countries Seek Reforms of the International Public Health Governance System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

To date, the results of efforts to improve the international community’s ability to prevent and respond to future pandemics show that countries do recognise the need to increase funding for these capabilities. However, they are much less unanimous about the scale and direction of changes to existing regulations in this sphere despite the fact that insufficiently precise responsibilities and lack of sanctions for not meeting them were the main reasons for the failure of efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19. Efforts to reform these regulations could be served by closer cooperation between the EU and the U.S.

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The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

India has not condemned Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, which stems from historical ideological ties, as well as their strategic and military cooperation. However, the war has led to unfavourable changes from India’s point of view - the weakening of Russia, the collapse of its cooperation with the West, and a growing dependence on China. As a result, Russia is diminishing in importance as a key partner of India, including a supplier of weapons and technology. In the long run, closer cooperation between India and the U.S. and EU countries in the field of security and energy will help to move India away from Russia.

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Finland Foreign Policy: Adjusting to (Not So) New Priorities

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has led to a significant change in Finland’s long-standing Russia policy and triggered the landmark decision to apply for membership in NATO. At the same time, in response to the Russian aggression, Finland continues to build on existing processes of strengthening relations with the U.S. and Nordic partners and aiming to increase the EU’s effectiveness as an international actor. Convergence with Poland on the perception of threats, policy towards Russia and Ukraine, as well as common interests related to security, make Finland a natural and desired partner, not only in NATO but also in the EU.

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Xi and CPC Consolidate Power in the 20th CPC Congress

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) confirmed XiJinping’s total control of the party. Politicians loyal to the leader dominated the composition of the CPC Standing Committee (SC). In his report on the work of the former Central Committee, Xi emphasised the threats to China’s interests, above all the difficult socio-economic situation and the pressure from the U.S. The CPC will continue to increase control over the economy and society and reduce technological dependence on foreign countries. It will also continue its confrontational foreign policy. This means, among others, a continuation of the Chinese position on supporting Russia as well as the potential of further deterioration of the situation of foreign companies.

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A New Opening Appears in the International Telecommunications Union - without Russia

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia’s loss in the competition for the position of secretary-general and a seat on the Council of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) confirms that Russia’s position in international institutions has weakened as a result of the aggression against Ukraine. On the other hand, the success of the U.S. and the EU in the elections for key positions in the organisation gives them the opportunity to more strongly influence the shaping of standards in important branches of the modern economy, such as artificial intelligence (AI) or wireless communications. The quality of transatlantic leadership in the ITU may determine the chances of its extension to other UN specialised organisations.

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Economy and Security are Keys to Türkiye - Russia Partnership

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the only NATO leader to hold regular meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Türkiye has attempted to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, is a party to the grain agreement, and has acted as an intermediary in the exchange of prisoners of war. However, Türkiye’s failure to join the sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the invasion of Ukraine weakens solidarity within the North Atlantic Alliance, but at the same time keeps open the possibility of exerting influence on Russia.

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Sweden Focuses on Security Cooperation as It Works Through NATO Accession

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Despite intensified diplomatic efforts, Türkiye has still not agreed to start the ratification procedure for Sweden’s - nor Finland’s - NATO membership. The accession process may drag on until after Türkiye’s presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023. During this time, Sweden, which is the target of increased hybrid attacks, should enhance the cooperation with NATO countries to strengthen resilience.

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EU Agriculture Manoeuvres between the Wartime Emergency and the Green Transition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Growing input costs constitute a serious problem for EU farmers. Although this year higher prices for agricultural products and state aid protected them against a drastic loss of income, in the long term, high prices of fertilisers, fuel, and energy related in part to the war in Ukraine threaten profitability and complicate planning. In the meantime, this summer’s drought demonstrated how destructive climate change is for agriculture. Faced with multiple challenges, Member States are prioritising financial support for farmers and maintaining the level of production in the EU. In the name of these objectives, they are ready to delay implementation of the green transition in agriculture.

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After the Danish Early Elections: Frederiksen Seeks a Broad Coalition

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The outcome of the general elections in Denmark on 1 November marks a continuation of existing policies that have led to landmark security and defence decisions in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Converging threat perceptions and the launch of the Baltic Pipe’s receiving terminal in Nybro - crucial to Polish energy security - could be the basis for an expanded partnership between Poland and Denmark.

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Preparing for Russian Hybrid Activities Against NATO and EU Countries

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In pursuit of its goals in Ukraine, Russia will intensify hybrid activities, including information warfare, cyber-attacks, or acts of sabotage against the critical infrastructure of NATO and EU countries. These actions are intended to increase fear in the European public about an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict and further deterioration of the economic situation. In this way, Russia seeks to weaken Allied unity, which is necessary to continue the support for Ukraine, implement new strategies of the Alliance and the EU, and react quickly to emerging threats. The importance of building state and societal resilience at the level of individual states and both NATO and the EU is growing.

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Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.

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Ukrainians Plan for Post-War Reconstruction

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Despite the ongoing military operations, Ukraine is already preparing for reconstruction. The concept it presented in Lugano, Switzerland, in July this year envisages not only the rebuilding of damaged facilities but also a comprehensive transformation of the state and economy. So far, it has not been possible to secure sufficient funding, and it also will be a challenge to coordinate such a wide-ranging undertaking. Early planning of reconstruction activities increases the chances of its success and boosts Ukrainian morale. It also allows Ukraine's partners, including Poland, to be better prepared to take part in the reconstruction.

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The Impossible Equilibrium: France Manoeuvres between Duelling China Policies

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

France’s policy towards China is based on opposing aspirations. On the one hand, President Emmanuel Macron is trying to maintain the possibility of developing cooperation with China, fearing a bipolar U.S.- Chinese rivalry. On the other, he seeks to protect French and European industries more effectively against unfair competition from China and opposes Chinese ambitions to dominate the Indo-Pacific. According to the French president, reconciling these goals is possible through more effective cooperation within the EU, although France’s aim to reduce the trade deficit puts it in the role of a competitor to other EU Member States. In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Macron wants to use China as a means of pressure on Russia.

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North Korea Continues to Develop Its Nuclear Forces

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.

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U.S. Releases Its 2022 “Missile Defense Review”

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. “Missile Defense Review” (MDR) indicates that its priorities are defence of its own territory against direct attacks from North Korea and Iran, and protection of overseas bases and allies, mainly from China and Russia. The Biden administration confirms the plan for finishing the European element of the “missile shield”, but also suggests the need for increased military efforts by allies from NATO. The intense use of missiles and drones by Russia against Ukraine and increased risks of intentional or accidental strike on the territory of NATO confirms the necessity of strengthened integrated air and missile defence of the Eastern Flank of the Alliance.

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EU Development Cooperation Policy Faces Challenges Amid the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in Europe at a time when global aid needs are growing dramatically and are now at their highest in history. The EU’s strong support for Ukraine poses challenges to the EU development cooperation system and risks reducing the EU’s involvement in other developing countries. There is an urgent need to increase spending on EU development assistance, as well as to create new instruments and mechanisms. In this way, support for Ukraine will not limit the assistance needed for other countries, including strengthening their resistance to Russian influence.

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