![Говор Д-Р Анте Трумбића у седници уставотворне Скупштине у Београду 23. и 25. априла 1921. поводом Генералног Претреса о Уставу](/api/image/getgrayliteraturecoverimage?id=document_cover-page-image_520687.jpg)
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Rosyjska agresja na Ukrainę zmusiła Islandię do korekty polityki zagranicznej. Jako małe państwo nieposiadające sił zbrojnych, ale objęte gwarancjami bezpieczeństwa w ramach członkostwa w NATO, chce wzmocnić powiązania z sojusznikami, rezygnując jednocześnie z kontaktów z Rosją. W polityce zagranicznej jeszcze bardziej zyskały na znaczeniu partnerstwo z USA i państwami nordyckimi oraz aktywność w organizacjach międzynarodowych, a także stosunki z członkami Unii Europejskiej z Europy Środkowej, w tym z Polską.
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Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.
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In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
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The Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives may slow down or reduce American support for Ukraine. The problem is not only the opposition of some Republicans to the assistance itself but above all, the attempts to reduce budget expenditures and reduce the deficit. This may prompt the Biden administration to use the approved funds sparingly and provide only the most necessary elements of support for fear that Congress will not allocate additional funds before the next fiscal year.
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Even without an EU ban on the imports of Russian gas in 2022, pipeline deliveries fell by over 80%. However, this did not eliminate the EU’s dependence on gas from Russia because at the same time, the Union recorded a record increase in LNG imports from this country. This trend goes against the EU’s efforts to diversify supply directions. It is important for the European Commission (EC) to encourage the Member States more strongly to abandon Russian LNG and strengthen European solidarity through joint gas purchases using the EU Energy Platform, as well as through the development of an LNG benchmark.
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Russia’s groundless suspension of the Russia-U.S. Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is yet another attempt to intimidate the West with nuclear weapons. By threatening an arms race, Russia seeks to force concessions regarding Ukraine. It is unable, however, to gain meaningful strategic advantage over the U.S. in such a race. It would entail costs for both sides, but they would be more severe for Russia, which is much weaker economically and further weakened by war and sanctions.
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The European Parliament(EP) corruption scandal, which began with the arrests of then current or former MEPs last December, showed that the mechanisms in place to ensure institutional transparency do not sufficiently protect against the influence of non-EU countries. In addition, the parliament’s internal standards are of limited effectiveness as penalties for non-compliance are not very severe and rarely applied. The effect of the scandal will most likely be to further increase the transparency of EP conduct. The probability of a new body to monitor ethical issues in EU institutions has also increased.
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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine prompted the Lithuanian authorities to pay even more attention to security issues. Lithuania will continue to increase defence spending to accelerate the modernisation of its armed forces and increase the potential of military-civil and allied cooperation within NATO, among other things. Lithuania intends to remain in the vanguard of countries that support Ukraine. Increasing defence capabilities will contribute to Lithuania strengthening the security of the Alliance’s Eastern Flank, a goal also sought by Poland. The NATO summit in Vilnius will be an opportunity for diplomats of both countries to cooperate in order to convince the allies to update their regional defence plans.
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The authorities of the Democratic Republic of the Congo are striving to create a regional industrial base for the production of lithium-ion batteries. This would allow African countries to gain leverage in global markets for new technologies and co-shape value and supply chains. The implementation of the plan will be hindered by technological and political barriers, for example, as competition to China, currently the main producer of these batteries.
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Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.
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Throughout its 25 years of existence, the Arctic Council has contributed heavily to preserving the Arctic as a zone of peace. Nowadays, changes in political realities present more complex challenges. The Council wants to continue tackling environmental problems while deescalating the growing power and military competition between China, Russia, and the United States, which may spread to the Arctic. However, balancing the Council’s mandated role of regional cooperation with security management risks losing the clear focus on the pressing climate emergency and overlooking the military nexus. If this happens, the tense relations in the region may further escalate.
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The high-tech sector is the most important element of the Israeli economy. It is the main source of foreign investment in Israel and generates more than half of the country’s exports. The sector’s development is driven by the growing global demand for digital products and services, partly the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and for new solutions in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) or climate protection. Israel uses its technological potential to strengthen its international position and as a tool in relations with other states. At the same time, Israel’s high-tech sector model strengthens social inequalities, benefitting only a part of the citizenry.
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Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
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The U.S.-China rivalry and the development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are leading South Korea to seek greater security independence. Despite the alliance with the U.S., South Korea does not fully support its ally in its competition with China. Instead, South Korea is developing conventional military capabilities to deter North Korea and strengthen its position in the region. The deteriorating security environment in East Asia and doubts about the credibility of U.S. security commitments may intensify the discussion on the acquisition of nuclear weapons in South Korea. Despite the different regional specificity, some of the security dilemmas resulting from the U.S.-China rivalry are common to South Korea and the European allies of the U.S.
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The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.
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The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.
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The overall importance of the United States for Poland cannot be overstated. The defence dimension remains paramount, but there is also an increasingly visible economic and energy aspect to the relationship that is becoming more important as both sides deepen their trade relations. While controversies around Nord Stream 2 have had a negative impact, the overall positive dynamics in bilateral relations can be continued under the Biden administration. Given the broad overlap of the U.S. administration’s and Poland’s foreign and security policy goals, and their similar assessment of the challenges, there is potential for the partners to quickly bounce back from the turbulence of the first half of 2021.
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The reform plan for Russian armed forces presented by the authorities hints that Russia is preparing for a long-term armed conflict with Ukraine. Although there are many indications that it will have problems implementing all the assumptions of the reform plan, its goal is clearly to rebuild and strengthen the army in a way that will challenge NATO. For Alliance members, this will require a plan for multi-stage support of Ukraine through the Ramstein format and others, but also NATO’s further adaptation to the Russian threat.
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