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Balkan Defence Monitor 2022

Author(s): Luka Šterić,Maja Bjeloš,Marija Ignjatijević / Language(s): English

The first iteration of the Balkan Defence Monitor entails detailed information on defence expenditure in the region, military exercises with international partners, foreign donations, participation in multinational operations and women in defence systems. The report covers data for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The idea behind the Balkan Defence Monitor is to launch an independent, comprehensive and credible source of information on defence sectors, policies and related issues in the Balkans. The main aim is to try to tackle the lack of information in this field and provide a fact-based alternative to current narratives in the Balkans region.

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Elevating EU-NATO Synergy for Enhanced European Defence

Author(s): Federica Mangiameli / Language(s): English

The latest appeals of Pete Hegseth – newly appointed US Secretary of Defence – to “European allies to step into the arena and take ownership of conventional security on the continent” represent a renewed clear call to Europe that should not go unheard. Against this backdrop, the EU can be instrumental in achieving this goal without necessarily becoming a mere cashbox to fund the Allies’ build-up of capabilities. The EU has the tools to concert and coordinate the efforts of the European Allies whilst incentivising its Member States that are not part of the Alliance to invest more in defence. Both organisations can jointly work in a common framework created with a shared purpose: increasing readiness and preparedness to counter external threats. From this perspective, the aim of this policy brief is to answer the question, “How to elevate the EU-NATO cooperation to strengthen European defence?”. The content of this paper is a result of research and interviews with officials from both the EU and NATO, as well as distinguished experts in the field of security and defence.

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How to make the EU ready for Enlargement: Member States’ perspective

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

The credibility of the full-fledged membership promise for the Western Balkan countries has been significantly weakened in the past years, and the current debates on the gradual integration and the idea of concentric circles of integration rather enhance than dispel doubts regarding the outcome of the process desired by member states – full-fledged membership, accession to the Single Market only, or maybe some kind of deeper cooperation based on sectoral integration. The EU’s internal debate on enlargement has become in-ward looking and focused predominantly on the absorption capacity and necessary internal adjustment of the EU. Moreover, this debate omits the main challenge – how to make aspiring countries enlargement ready. Currently, none of them is and probably will not be ready in the foreseeable future, as enlargement policy lost its credibility and effectiveness, especially in the most crucial area of democratic governance. The Freedom House Nations in Transit reports reveal that the democratic institutions are still weak in most of the countries rated as partly free. Since 2017, only one recorded some improvements (Kosovo), Serbia's situation significantly deteriorated and in the case of the others, scores have not changed.

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After October 7: EU Policy Towards the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in 2023-2024

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The purpose of this text is to analyse the EU policy towards Israel's war with Hamas, its dynamics, and the changes it has undergone since October 7, 2023. The starting point is an analysis of the EU’s approach in the years leading up to the crisis. Further, selected actions, changes and processes undertaken by the EU institutions at the Union level will be presented. The conclusion is an assessment of the policy, its effects and an approximation of its prospects, especially in the context of Donald Trump's second presidency. The analysis builds on desk research and interviews conducted in September 2024 with representatives of the EU institutions at various levels, diplomats, and experts on the region and EU policy towards MENA.1 Due to space limitations, the article focuses primarily on the institutional dimension of the EU level, addressing member states' actions at the bilateral level to a lesser extent. The timeframe covered in the analysis is concluded by the start of the mandate of the new European Commission on December 1, 2024.

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The Role of the European Union’s Raw Materials Diplomacy in the Green Transition

Author(s): Gábor Papp / Language(s): English

Even though the question of energy and supply security has global implications and is being discussed globally, Europe was particularly affected by these aforementioned events. This is because of, on the one hand, its historical and deep dependence on Russian fossil fuels and, on the other hand, the lack of many raw materials in its own soil. Within a month after the breakout of the war, the heads of state or government of the EU member states came up with the Versailles Declaration in their informal meeting in March 2022. In this document, the green agenda and the security of energy supply have already been linked together. It stated that over the past few years, the European Union has set the target of climate neutrality by 2050, however, working on this goal has been challenged by how the current situation affects the security of energy supply.

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The (un)desirable partner – analysis of the narrative on civil society as a tool to capture the state

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

As stakeholders with corrective function in a state which holds itself democratic, civil society organizations and activists indicate the threats borne by captured state. Precisely for this, the way of the government’s and public institutions’ way of communicating towards the civil society has been identified as an important element to analyse – on the one hand, due to the government’s need for legitimacy on the international scale, there are so-called “positive narratives” about civil society as a guarantor of the rule of law and democracy in the country, and, on the other hand, “negative narratives” about civil society articulated through attacks and pressure exerted on the civil society, demonstrated by unfounded statements in form of discreditation of any criticism. Both “positive” and “negative” narratives have a direct impact on the relations between the civil society and institutions in Serbia, and the indirect consequences of the relations thus fashioned on the state capturing process could also be analysed.

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There is No Democracy in Serbia, nor is it Desirable

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Almost one third of the Serbian citizens feel that there is no democracy in the country, while half of them believe that it does exist, but that it experiences smaller or bigger problems. This opinion is shared mostly by young people and the population aged 30 to 39, as well as by citizens who live in Belgrade. The explanation for this view can be found in the citizens’ assessments that the main state decisions are made by the executive power, that politicians use power for the realisation of their personal interests, and that corruption – from either domestic or foreign sources – is the main driving force in the state. Consequently, almost two thirds of the population believes that politicians, organised in interest groups, abuse power for the sake of their own personal interests. They do this through the Government and the Parliament, the judiciary and the police, the state-owned enterprises and public companies that serve to manage significant public resources, and through the media as instruments that are used to legitimise the actions of politicians. These views of the citizens have been reflected also in the perception of corruption; they thus believe that political parties, the government, the judiciary, the police and the media are among the most corrupt actors in the country. In addition, 86% of the respondents believe that employment in public administration and state-owned enterprises can be gained only through corrupt mechanisms, i.e. bribery or political/family ties.

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Development of resistance against small hydropower plants in Serbia

Author(s): Dina Đorđević / Language(s): English

In a new case study, Dina Djordjevic, a journalist of the Centre for Investigative Reporting, presents how local actions against small hydropower plants in Serbia have turned into a mass environmental revolt at the national level.For more than a decade now, small hydropower plants (SHPPs) are being erected en masse on Serbian mountain rivers and streams. Their encouragement is part of a wider story that revolves around the fight against climate change, and around attempts to reduce the production of energy by use of coal, thus increasing the production of electricity in a way that would be less harmful to nature and human health.

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Legal Position of Human Rights Defenders in Serbia in Terms of Basic Human Rights – Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly, the Right to Liberty and Security, and the Right to Association

Author(s): Milena Vasić / Language(s): English

This document aims to positively address the legal framework of four basic rights that are necessary for human rights defenders to be able to perform their activities, to point out problems in legislation, but also to present a real picture of the position of activists in Serbia who encounter direct or indirect violations of these rights on a daily basis.Freedom of expression, freedom of peaceful assembly, the right to liberty and security, and freedom of association are often inseparable rights when it comes to any form of activism. In this document, they were specifically addressed because it is precisely these rights that were violated by most of the recorded attacks and pressures suffered by human rights defenders. In its practice, the European Court of Human Rights frequently connects these four rights and emphasises their importance in a democratic society.

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Security sector in a captured state: act two

Author(s): Predrag Petrović,Jelena Pejić Nikić,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Due to the damage that state capture causes to the public interest, it is very important to investigate and closely monitor this process in the security sector of Serbia. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy was the first organisation in the country to point out this negative process and the role that the security sector plays in it. It has conducted its first research on this topic, the findings of which can be found in a study entitled “Capturing the Security Sector of Serbia”. The study in front of you is a continuation of that research. In it, we monitored and documented further state capture and the role of security institutions in that negative process. The research covered the period from the beginning of 2020 to November 2021. It explained the political context of capturing the state, the security services, the police, the army and the Ministry of Defence, within which we analysed the capture of special-purpose [arms] industry and parliamentary oversight of the security sector. Considering the fact that actors who participate in state capture are trying to secure international support for their endeavor, and that they are also making use of the experiences of other captured states, we have analysed the foreign policy aspect of capturing the state, which is a novelty compared to earlier research.

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2021 Elections in Albania: “Facadization” of Tirana and “cannabization” of Albania

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The upcoming parliamentary elections will once again mean a confrontation between two political groups, one is gathered around the Socialist Party (PS/S&D) and Prime Minister Edi Rama and the other one is the opposition group led by the Democratic Party (PD/EPP) headed by Lulzim Basha, which includes the Movement for Socialist Integration (LSI) headed byMonika Kryemadhi. However, some minor political parties will also participate. The specificity of these elections is the newly adopted controversial election law which regulates that pre-election coalitions are no longer allowed. The law is aimed to prevent consolidation of the opposition, although the PD and LSI, in cooperation with another minor party, had already announced establishment of a pre-election and postelection coalition. The Democratic Party (PD) and the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) boycotted the local elections that took place on 30 June 2019, which were organized by Edi Rama's regime. The turnout at the elections was 22.96% and only the Socialist Party (PS) participated in them.

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Managing change and uncertainty within a Serbian think tank

Author(s): Igor Bandović / Language(s): English

After two years as director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP), I have written this piece about the process BCSP went through to consolidate itself as an organisation and to spearhead the work of the think tank community in Serbia and the Balkans on contested and challenging topics in the times of global crisis. Here is our story.

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A Quasi-Arms Race: Serbia and Croatia

Author(s): Marija Ignjatijević,Vuk Vuksanović / Language(s): English

In the last six years, Serbia and Croatia have been upgrading their military arsenals, leading to the conclusion that the two countries are spearheading a new arms race in the Western Balkans. This narrative is misleading as the strategic environment makes inter-state war unlikely and the process is actually about Serbia and Croatia replacing old equipment from the Yugoslav days. However, the two countries use arms procurement as leverage in their respective foreign policies and tools of domestic promotion for their rulling elites. The return of hostility is highly unlikely, but there is a political threat of cementing an atmosphere of mistrust in the region.

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The Crime-Politics Nexus Entrapping The Balkans

Author(s): / Language(s): English

In some of the countries of the Western Balkans, criminal groups and political elites have grown increasingly interdependent. In particular, Serbia’s and Montenegro’s societies have suffered the most from these links. The two countries have long been considered frontrunners in the EU integration process, whose final completion, however, is difficult to foresee. Similarly, Albania’s EU negotiating process has also been delayed for years, in part because of the country’s role in global drug trafficking schemes. The crime-politics nexus is contributing to the erosion of the rule of law in several Balkan countries, where the risk – or reality – of state capture is increasingly worrisome. In light of recent events, Serbia appears to be the most concerning case as its authoritarian drift currently seems hard to reverse. Which consequences does the situation in Serbia have on other Balkan countries? What impact does state capture have on regional stability? And what is changing for the region’s integration prospects with the EU?

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Protection of Public Interest by Legal Means – Judgment of the Administrative Court in the “Cable Car” Case

Author(s): Jovana Rajić,Marko Popović / Language(s): English

On 12 February 2021, the Administrative Court issued the judgment concerning the lawsuit that was filed by the Regulatory Institute for Renewable Energy and Environment (RERI), in which it approved the plaintiff’s request and annulled the building permit for the construction of a cable car terminal in Kalemegdan. The Court accepted the arguments of the plaintiff (RERI) and annulled the decision (building permit) of the Ministry of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure, returning the case to the competent first instance body for retrial.

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Attacks on Civil Society Activists and Organizations in Serbia in 2020

Author(s): Bojana Selaković / Language(s): English

Lack of institutional dialogue has led to a deepening of the political crisis in Serbia, which has been recognised by international organisations such as the European Parliament, the European Commission and other organisations dealing with the protection and promotion of human rights. Such an environment has also contributed to the further polarisation of society, the spread of inflammatory and discriminatory rhetoric, and the rise of extremism due to the lack of action of the competent state authorities. These trends have inevitably affected all civil society organisations, regardless of the range of values they represent.

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Covidocracy – An Analysis of Narratives About the Pandemic in the Function of Capturing the State

Author(s): Jelena Pejić Nikić,Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Although the analysis covers the entire year 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the greatest attention was given to the state of emergency in the spring of 2020. The construction of the narrative was facilitated in the conditions of excessive presence of government representatives in the media, at almost daily press conferences, addresses to the nation, and numerous appearances of the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, doctors from the government’s Crisis Response Team and several ministers on television. In addition, access to authentic information on the consequences of the pandemic was largely denied to the public. In that narrative, the holders of power, the President of the Republic in particular, were presented as skillful and dedicated saviors of the citizens from the plague. The elderly population, the functionality of the healthcare system and the economy took turns as priorities (victims) that needed to be protected.

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Murder of the Law – No Justice for Mountain Rivers

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On 15 August 2020, activists from all parts of Serbia have gathered in the vicinity of the village of Rakita and removed part of the pipeline of the mini hydro power plant “Zvonce” (“Little Bell”) on the Rakita River. This was one of the largest initiatives of environmental activists (as well as other citizens interested in environmental protection) in the last few years in Serbia. The action was, in fact, a reflection of an increasing number of initiatives and movements that deal with endangered environment, and an increasing number of examples where investors endanger the environmental safety, both of citizens and beyond. In order to fully understand how and why the construction of MHPPs on the Rakita River became a national-level topic, the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy – in cooperation with the movement “Let’s Defend the Rivers of Stara Planina [Old Mountain]” – developed a case study to better understand the context, activities and problems that led to the “Rakita issue” becoming a topic that attracted the attention of a large number of citizens of the Republic of Serbia.

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International Mechanisms for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders

Author(s): Katarina Golubović / Language(s): English

This guidebook serves activists to recognise themselves as human rights defenders, to find out what minimum rights of defenders are guaranteed at the international level, and to obtain information on the addresses and ways in which the international community provides them with support and protection.

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Don’t Talk to Me about Democracy while I’m Guarding Kosovo – analysis of narratives used to capture the state

Author(s): Maja Bjeloš,Bojan Elek / Language(s): English

This analysis has shown the mechanism by which the Serbian authorities, by controlling and strategically using narratives on resolving the Kosovo dispute, manage to increase their own discretionary powers while simultaneously abolishing control mechanisms. In other words, under the pretext of resolving the Kosovo issue, the separation of powers and democratic decision-making are being abolished, leading to an even greater level of state capture.

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