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Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak,Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s seizure of a portion of Russian territory containing strategically important gas infrastructure assets has not resulted in a reduction of Russian gas flow to EU consumers. However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies.

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Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

A peculiar political system has emerged during the five years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine, with virtually all power concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) which he controls. The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and the Cabinet of Ministers have been marginalised, and the most important decisions in the country are made at Bankova Street, where the president and his administration are based. This is partly a consequence of the characteristic prevalence of informal governance mechanisms over formal ones in Ukraine, which includes the role of the president being greater than laid out under the constitution.

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The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

On 27 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual keynote speech in Băile Tușnad, Transylvania, Romania, which was almost entirely focussed on global issues. Orbán emphasised that Europe needs to emancipate itself from US influence, shift away from supporting Kyiv, and pursue an agreement with Moscow. He also criticised Poland’s pro-American policy aimed at weakening Russia, which he described as wrong and “doomed to fail”. Furthermore, he underscored the necessity of acknowledging the rise of Asian powers, viewing this as an opportunity, particularly with regard to cooperation with China.

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A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Hostile attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania have become more widespread as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Belarus’s involvement. This animosity has been further exacerbated by the ongoing debate in the Lithuanian media about how to interpret the two nations’ shared, centuries-old history. The key context for these tensions is the significant growth of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania over the past four years (c. 63,000 people) and the influx of 86,000 Ukrainian citizens and 16,000 Russians following the outbreak of war in 2022. This situation has confronted Lithuanian politicians and special services with the challenge of identifying and preventing possible threats. They have been closely monitoring efforts to disseminate radical, nationalist, and other views inspired by Belarusian and Russian special services with the aim of dividing the two nations. Such views include the concept of the so-called ‘Litvinism’, a pseudo-scientific theory which claims that the medieval Lithuanians were in fact Belarusians and that they founded the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (GDL). If this theory were to be legitimised, Lithuania’s right to the Vilnius region could be called into question. Leaders of the Belarusian diaspora have supported Lithuania’s position that rejects Litvinism and have viewed any efforts to popularise this idea as attempts to drive a wedge between the two nations.

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An increasingly important partner. Poland’s exports to and investment in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a surge in Polish-Ukrainian trade, mainly due to an increase in Polish exports which grew by more than 80% between 2021 and 2023. Poland’s imports have remained at pre-war levels, with the exception of a spike recorded in 2022 due to an influx of cereals and oilseeds. In 2023, the value of Poland’s exports to Ukraine was almost triple that of its imports from that country. At present, Ukraine ranks sixth among Poland’s export partners. Although the increase in exports was mainly recorded in categories such as weapons, ammunition and fuels, more dynamic export activity also occurred in numerous other sectors, including clothing, footwear and furniture. Despite periodic border blockades, road and rail transport played a key role in trade and no noticeable disruptions in export activity to Ukraine were recorded.

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A siege broken? China’s processor sector under US sanctions

Author(s): Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Processors are at the heart of the Chinese-US rivalry. They are among the key technologies in which the US holds such global dominance that it can slow China’s growth. The unprecedented export restrictions that the US introduced in 2022 were designed to hinder the growth of China’s semiconductor sector and prevent this country from manufacturing chips smaller than 14 nm. However, these sanctions have proved to be porous, allowing Chinese companies, which have benefited from extensive state support, to partially develop the production of relatively advanced semiconductor technologies. They have so far failed to achieve the 2–3 nm level that characterises the most advanced chips; they also remain dependent on imports of chip-making equipment. Nonetheless, the ultimate outcome of global competition in this industry will depend not only on the actions of the US and China, but also on the attitudes of other actors involved in international microprocessor supply chains, such as the Netherlands, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

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Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Over the course of his seven-year presidency, Emmanuel Macron has had complete freedom in shaping France's foreign and security policy. This autonomy is evident in France’s fluctuating stance towards Russia, from initial hopes of building a shared European security architecture to the recent reports of dispatching French military instructors to support embattled Ukraine. The pace of decision-making was undoubtedly an advantage for France compared to many allies, but it did not always enhance Paris's credibility.

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Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Due to its negative natural increase and emigration, Latvia is one of the fastest depopulating countries in the world, losing 18,000–20,000 inhabitants annually – the equivalent of a medium-sized Latvian town. Although the country’s political and intellectual elite recognised the problem following the 2007 economic crisis, Latvia has failed to implement comprehensive measures and devise a political strategy to reverse or at least slow down the negative trends. The gloomy picture of Latvian demography is further blurred by the absence of social consensus on solving these problems, including, to some degree, allowing immigration from outside the EU. Another major issue is the unprecedented magnitude of the Latvian population’s health problems compared to other EU member states.

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures in 2020

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Natan Albahari,Jovana Bogosavljević,Tamara Kitić / Language(s): English

This is the seventh annual report that offers a brief overview of the EU’s foreign policy declarations during 2020 and tabulation of Serbia’s compliance with each of them. The analysis gives an explanation of such foreign policy of Serbia within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during 2020.

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Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Author(s): Robert Pszczel,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Three themes were dominant at the NATO Summit in Washington (9–11 July): the reinforcement of allied deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, and cooperation with the partners in the Indo-Pacific. NATO continues to adapt its command structure and the process of force generation for new regional defence plans. The most significant decisions concerned aid for Ukraine. Although Kyiv is yet to receive an invitation to join NATO, its integration path was described as "irreversible".The decisions made at the summit regarding NATO's new role in supporting Ukraine are to serve as a "bridge" to eventual membership. These include NATO taking on tasks of coordinating military aid and the training of Ukrainian forces, along with a financial commitment of at least €40 billion annually for long-term support. Compared to previous documents, the allies have toughened their language on China in the Summit Declaration, identifying it as a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Russia has seen a negative natural population growth rate for three decades, except for a brief period between 2013 and 2015. Since 2020, the natural population decline has no longer been offset by a positive migration balance. As a result, the Russian population has been consistently decreasing, primarily due to long-term demographic problems such as a decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. These adverse trends have been compounded by immediate challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a noticeable increase in the number of deaths, and the ongoing war with Ukraine, the demographic impact of which is difficult to estimate, since the number of casualties has not been disclosed by the authorities.

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How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s defensive war is a struggle for high stakes: the existence of the Ukrainian state and the security of the entire Western world. The upcoming NATO summit in Washington, like the previous one in Vilnius, will not bring any breakthroughs regarding how quickly Ukraine joins the Alliance, or whether Kyiv receives a formal invitation. However, NATO is ready to increase its support for Ukraine significantly. The assistance package which has been prepared may prove to be an added value binding Ukraine more closely with the Alliance. This will create an opportunity for two goals to be achieved simultaneously: strategically strengthening Ukraine's military potential in its war against Russia, and preparing it for the requirements of future membership.

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The crisis affecting Russia’s public services: healthcare, education, and the postal service

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s public services are facing chronic issues, stemming from insufficient funding, staff shortages and uneven socio-economic development. These challenges have been exacerbated by Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, as the state budget has prioritised military spending. The direct and indirect consequences of the war have further strained these services. The crisis is evident in critical sectors including those of key importance to the state such as health care, education, and the postal service. Despite the prolonged and severe nature of these problems, the situation remains under control and poses no risk of a total collapse.

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NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO is in the process of adjusting its nuclear deterrence in response to the modernisation of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric. However, the changes to NATO’s nuclear strategy, capabilities (aside from the ongoing modernisation of the US, UK, and French strategic forces), and strategic communication have so far been limited.Currently, there is no agreement on whether to further strengthen NATO’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe by expanding the nuclear sharing programme to include additional allies or by deploying nuclear-capable land-based missile systems in Europe. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to adapt NATO’s tactical nuclear potential further in the future as the US’s nuclear capabilities will be most likely adjusted to the growing challenges posed not only by Russia but also China. This may spur a discussion on the European allies increasing their participation in nuclear sharing program and on strengthening the roles of France and the UK in nuclear deterrence in Europe.

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The capitulation of Ukraine and the Finlandisation of Europe: Russia’s threats and ‘offers’

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Over the past few weeks, the political leadership of the Russian Federation (RF) has issued a series of statements and undertaken actions primarily aimed at Ukraine and the Western countries supporting it. These statements and actions can be divided into two main categories. The first includes threats to escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war to a nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. The second consists of ‘offers’ not only to end the war but also to begin talks on creating a new security and stability architecture in Eurasia. If these offers were accepted, they would be equivalent to the capitulation of Ukraine, a significant limitation of its sovereignty, and allowing Russia to take effective control the country. This would also lead to the destruction of the current political and security order in Europe, the disruption of transatlantic ties, and allowing the European continent to be dragged into the orbit of both China and Russia.

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China on the road to ‘green’ energy security

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

China aspires to be the leader of the global energy transformation. Unlike the European Union and others, it hasfocused on its main priorities: enhancing national security and turning its green industry into a driving force for its economy. Reducing pollutant emissions is further down the list of its objectives. For this reason, China has been the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy sources, but it has also spent heavily on coal and nuclear power. Any reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are merely a by-product of these processes; in fact, China has been party to global climate agreements mainly for reasons of prestige.

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures: Semi-annual review for 2023

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Tanja Plavšić / Language(s): English

An Analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the EU’s foreign policy declarations and measures for period from 1st January to 30th June 2023. The Analysis provides an explanation of Serbia’s foreign policy within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during this period.

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Engaging the private sector. Germany’s plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Berlin believes that the reconstruction and post-war development of Ukraine should involve not only enhancing the country’s integration with the EU market and implementing institutional reforms but also increasing engagement by the private sector. To this end, a broad range of instruments are to be provided, including investment guarantees, export insurance, advisory support, and the coordinated efforts of public agencies and business organisations. According to the German government, the reconstruction of Ukraine is envisioned as an economic undertaking, largely free of political dilemmas, including the potential confiscation of Russian assets to finance reforms in Ukraine.

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Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Much of Ukrainian diplomacy’s activity has been focused on efforts to persuade the world that it should support an end to the war with Russia on Ukraine’s terms. Since November 2022, Ukraine has primarily pursued this goal by promoting Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which consists of 10 points representing Ukrainian demands directly related to the ongoing conflict: the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, Russia’s recognition of the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, punishing those guilty of war crimes, and launching international action in the face of the threats with possible global consequences that exist in Ukraine. These include ensuring the safety of nuclear energy in the light of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and guaranteeing Ukrainian food exports via the Black Sea.

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Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Azerbaijan’s restoration of its territorial integrity in the period from 2020 to 2023 marked the culmination of a thirty-year effort. The country’s foreign and security policy was subordinated to the overarching goal of recovering Nagorno-Karabakh and other lost territories. However, this objective also determined its domestic policy: it legitimised the necessity of its authoritarian rule, and even reinforced it by allowing the government to consider any opposition activity as a priori detrimental to the country’s defence capabilities in the face of an external threat. The long-lasting conflict with Armenia also had important social (the influx of displaced persons and refugees) and cultural (nation- and state-building) dimensions. The recent military success has strengthened and legitimised President Ilham Aliyev’s position as a victorious leader.

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