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Glasul Minorităţilor. La Voix des Minorités. Die Stimme der Minderheiten. 1934-11+12
please find in the » Introduction.pdf « a complete Table of Content for all annual issues of 1934
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please find in the » Introduction.pdf « a complete Table of Content for all annual issues of 1934
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Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were cooperating closely militarily and politically. Although the Belarusian army has not taken part in the fighting, Russia is using Belarus as a base to conduct hostilities in Ukraine. Maintaining such cooperation with Russia will mean further political and economic losses for Belarus.
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Ukrainian authorities have been appealing to the international community and NATO to introduce a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukraine. NATO is not willing to do that because of the risk of direct conflict with Russia and the threat of a nuclear escalation. However, the allies can support Ukraine in a way that seriously limits the effectiveness of Russian air attacks.
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After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.
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Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the alleged chemical weapons threat from Ukrainian paramilitary forces has been a significant element of Russian disinformation. These suggestions intensified with the lack of a military breakthrough and might be laying the groundwork for some use chemical weapons by Russia. The risk that Russia could do this has been indicated by U.S. administration officials, the president of Poland, and the head of NATO, among others. The next declarations of Western countries on this issue should be based on an agreed set of political and military consequences of any potential chemical attack by Russia.
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Faced with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Denmark declared its intention to fulfil its NATO commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to defence spending. Due to the deteriorating security situation in Europe, the country also wants to add an EU component to its defence policy based on NATO membership and partnership with the U.S. It intends to become involved in the Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy, in which it has not participated so far.
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On 16 March, the third week of the war in Ukraine ended. Russian troops still have not broken through the main lines of the Ukrainian defences and captured Kyiv. For the Ukrainians to continue their staunch defence, supplies from Western countries in the form of weapons and humanitarian and economic aid are crucial.
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Mariupol has been under siege since 4 March. The city is a key port for Ukraine on the Azov Sea. For Russia, occupation of the city has both military and symbolic significance. The duration and constriction of the blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. A prolonged siege of the city may lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, bearing the hallmarks of a crime against humanity.
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The special meeting of defence ministers on 16 March and the special summit of NATO leaders on 24 March indicate that the Alliance is accelerating work on strengthening its defence and deterrence. According to the NATO Secretary General, the Alliance must redefine its approach to deterrence in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
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In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a rapid reorientation of energy policy in Western countries. Energy cooperation with Russia is now undesirable. A broad consensus has emerged on the need to reduce dependence on imports of Russian raw materials, including countries that previously regarded Russia as a reliable trading partner, such as Germany. The EU supports Ukraine, whose energy security has deteriorated significantly.
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Serbia is the only country in Europe, excluding Belarus, that, apart from its support of the UN resolution, has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This position results from the political and economic ties to Russia as well as the sympathy of the Serbian society towards it, which is important a month before a general election. Most media in Serbia are dependent on the ruling parties and serve to maintain their power, and in general they repeat Russian propaganda.
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On the ninth day of military operations in Ukraine, Russian troops continued to focus on four directions of attack, the most important of which, politically and militarily, is Kyiv. Russian forces face considerable resistance from the Ukrainian army and the society. In the coming days, it is excepted that humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from the encircled cities will be established.
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The Russian military action against Ukraine initiated profound changes in Finnish foreign and security policy and in the society’s attitude towards Finland’s membership of NATO, which the majority of Finns now support.
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Most Arab states are trying to remain neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While the U.S. remains a key partner for many of them, relations with Russia are an increasingly important element of the progressive diversification of their foreign policy. Growing Western pressure on them to distance themselves from Russia may result in a more intensive turn of these countries towards China, but such pressure remains necessary given their potential to, for example, replace energy imports from Russia.
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Latin American governments differed in their assessment of the Russian authorities’ actions and decision to invade Ukraine. The regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were the only ones to clearly support Russia, but at the UN, most countries of the region expressed their opposition to the Russian aggression. Apart from Colombia, the other countries have not yet declared whether they will join the sanctions against Russia. There are concerns in the region about the negative effects of the restrictions introduced by the EU members, the U.S., and other countries. The priority for most Latin American governments is the evacuation of their citizens from Ukraine.
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Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, many global technology companies have taken action against Russia. Restricting the functioning of Russia-based accounts by some social media platforms or impeding the export of technology to Russia by other companies (in addition to sanctions imposed by states) represent a new level of involvement of private actors in international conflicts. Increasing pressure from Western states may contribute to further steps weakening Russian disinformation on social media and Russia’s economic potential due to limited access to high technology.
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The protests that erupted in the west of Kazakhstan in early January spread to the rest of the country and took on an anti-government character. The consequences of them include an escalation of violence by the Kazakh authorities and the potential for a further strengthening of authoritarian regimes in the region.
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The governments of Japan and Australia have concluded an agreement on military cooperation. This is another element of the deepening military relations between the states that make up the QUAD and is intended to be a response to China’s strengthening military potential in the region. The agreement may speed up negotiations of similar agreements between Japan and European countries.
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