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GREY Working Paper No. 1: Tackling the Undeclared Economy in Bulgaria: a Baseline Report

Author(s): Rositsa Dzhekova,Colin C. Williams / Language(s): English

This working paper is an output of the European Commission’s FP7 "Marie Curie Industry-Academia Partnerships and Pathways" (IAPP) project entitled "GREY - Out of the shadows: developing capacities and capabilities for tackling undeclared work in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia". Ms Rositsa Dzhekova, Center for the Study of Democracy and Prof. Colin C Williams, GREY-IAPP, Sheffield University Management School, University of Sheffield elaborated the report in April 2014. It provides a systematic review of available evidence on the extent and nature of the undeclared economy in Bulgaria, as well as on the institutional actors involved in tackling the phenomenon and their policy approach and measures used. The aim of the GREY project is to provide concrete policy recommendations, based on rigorous empirical evidence, for those seeking to tackle the undeclared economy in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia. The key objectives of our project are: to conduct evaluations of existing policy measures directed at enabling the formalization of undeclared work; to identify good practices and assess the extent to which they might be transferable to other countries or contexts; to develop innovative policy measures and test their effectiveness at tackling undeclared employment in the EU-27; and to train a generation of experts who will be able to act as advisors and implementers of ambitious projects aimed at curbing undeclared work.

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Copenhagen 2009: Outliers among CO2 emitters: choose your pick

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Reaching an agreement at the Copenhagen conference on climate change starting on 7 December 2009 will be tough. Everyone is a sinner in a way: (1) the main advocates of binding agreement on climate change such as the European countries (EU plus Norway) and Japan are big emitters, taken together; (2) the main suspects - US and China are the biggest emitters, each in its own different way and are seen as dragging their feet over target agreements; (3) the rest are falling in between with less access to novel technologies and gaping inefficiencies in their economies. Bulgaria has evidently fulfilled its target commitments under Kyoto and it is a small emitter. Nevertheless, Bulgaria remains more carbon-intensive than China as per capita and than US as per GDP. Its inefficient economy, however, holds considerable potential for a greener future. This is particularly true for its industry. Bulgaria needs to take decisive actions in improving the energy efficiency of its industrial and energy production and in introducing green technologies and further measures for sustainable consumer behavior. But how much is it willing to pay for it?

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A Painful Shift in Bulgarian Anti-Corruption Policies and Practice

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The most important shift in Bulgaria’s anti-corruption policies in recent months is the move from “soft” (awareness-raising) campaigns to “hard” (prevention and sanctions oriented) measures with immediate anti-corruption effects. Taken together these recent developments create a tipping point for countering political corruption, a critical mass of action to guarantee that Bulgaria moves to a new equilibrium of lower political and administrative corruption. The latest CSD Brief points out that more pressure and support both from EU partners and from the Bulgarian civil society and mass media would be needed for the country to move more quickly to this new equilibrium. Bulgaria still needs to address several outstanding challenges to complement its initial steps against political corruption: • coordination of anti-corruption measures; • pro-active generation of anti-corruption policies; • decrease the corruption vulnerability of public procurement by ensuring transparency and accountability; • reducing channels for political payback and corruption; • public-private partnerships; • reducing VAT fraud; • more efforts in the administrative domain, including government’s commitment to independent oversight of its anti-corruption actions; • measuring the impact on the level of corruption of all anti-corruption programs implemented in the country.

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Bulgaria: Summing Up Privatization, April 1996

Author(s): Maria Prohaska / Language(s): English

The 1993-1995 period saw the first steps of privatization, the establishment and development of its institutional foundations and in 1995, the phasing-in of actual privatization. Over 24,000 entities had been privatized by December 31, 1995. Most units (about 22,000 shops, restaurants, hotels, warehouses, small production enterprises, etc.) passed into private hands through restitution. The specific nature of the recent development of Bulgaria's private sector is determined largely by this restoration of ownership rights to small urban properties. Restitution helped create favorable conditions for the establishment of a real estate market and for the promotion of entrepreneurship, mainly in trade and services. However, there are still many unsettled restitution claims, as well as some unresolved problems concerning how some former owners may be indemnified by giving them the opportunity to participate in other forms of privatization.

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Analysis of the Postprivatization Behavior of Enterprises in Bulgaria in the Period 1992-1994

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Two years after the adoption of the Privatization Law(1992), even if slowly, privatization in Bulgaria has made considerable progress. It is the only transition country wich implements only market (capital) privatisation. Bulgaria is a middle-income country, which poses a serious barrier to capital privatization. Of course, experience (Chile, for instance) has shown that a successful capital privatization is possible in such countries as well.

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Debt Conversion Program: Guidlines for Bulgaria, Final Study, June 1995

Author(s): Mariana Todorova,Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The economic changes of the past years in Eastern Europe and particularly in Bulgaria have created a new environment for the international business. Despite the serious economic, financial and structural challenges, Bulgaria's potential for privatization, industrial modernization and rapid economic growth are unprecedented.

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The Reform in the Bulgarian Banking System

Author(s): Ivan Tabakov / Language(s): English

The economic reforms that were launched in Bulgaria following the democratic changes in late 1989 are meant to carry out the transition from a centrally planned, to market oriented economy. The banking reform is one of the chief preconditions for the organization of a financial system that conforms with market economy principles, which can facilitate the overcoming of the crisis and restoration of macroeconomic stability. The process of institutionalization of the banking system in the country was supposed, within a relatively short period of time, to settle several critical groups of questions. Most notably these were: to lay the foundations of the money and foreign exchange market; to secure stability and trust in the financial institutions; to encourage competition between them. The highlight of the reform of the financial and credit system was the transformation of the Bulgarian National Bank from an instrument of centralized planned management and a banking monopoly, into a central banking institution in a position, through its independent monetary policy, to guarantee the stability of the national currency and the viability of the banking system in Bulgaria.

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Economic reform in Bulgaria

Author(s): Spartak Keremidchiev,Todor Gradev,Stephan Kyutchukov,Todor Popov,Reneta Indjova,Todor Radev / Language(s): Bulgarian

At the beginning of 1991 the Bulgarian economy had almost reached the point of collapse. This was due to the economic policy of 1990, combined with the negative effects of the Persian Gulf crisis. On this background a project for one-year "stand-by" credit for Bulgaria from the IMF was prepared. The agreement was signed in February 1991 and confirmed by IMF on March 15. Under these circumstances the use of the IMF resources was the only possibility for partial recovery of the country's hard currency reserves, and this possibility could certainly be used only under the specific conditions required by IMF.

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Inflation in Bulgaria - Methodology of Measurement and Tendencies in Its Development during 1991 - 1992

Author(s): Maria Zetcheva / Language(s): English

Price liberalization occupies a central place in every stabilization program. Its purpose is to reach a rational relative price structure and thus to eliminate the imbalance between the solvent demand and supply of goods and services, set up in the terms of administrative valuation of prices. By removing price level control arises a possibility of unfolding hidden inflationary processes in the economy. The choice of a liberalization scheme is an important problem in this aspect. It is to direct the completion of price liberalization process so that an optimum effect is reached.

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Съобщение за медиите: Проучване на състоянието на работната среда в Европа след влиянието на кризата

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

This week Eurofound launches the field work of the third edition of European Company Survey across 32 countries. The sociological and marketing arm of the Center for the Study of Democracy - Vitosha Research will conduct the survey in Bulgaria.

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CEPS Activities. Review 2011 – Preview 2012

Author(s): H. Onno Ruding,Karel Lannoo,Daniel Gros,Staffan Jerneck / Language(s): English

The prevailing financial or euro crisis is a reflection of inadequate fiscal policies in combination with a lack of competitiveness in several member countries of the eurozone. Whatever its causes, however, it has exposed fundamental weaknesses in the design of EMU as well as insufficient implementation of the rules governing the euro area. After all, EMU stands for Economic and Monetary Union. These deficiencies had been signalled earlier in the 1990s, but they have been ignored since then by many politicians and financial markets as well. At this moment, it is still unclear whether the euro-area members are able and willing to resolve this crisis by taking the necessary and far-reaching decisions towards a much higher degree of integration. Such moves would go beyond a ’fiscal union’ and would necessarily cover essential elements of macroeconomic policies as well.

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CEPS Activities. Review 2012 – Preview 2013

Author(s): H. Onno Ruding,Karel Lannoo,Daniel Gros,Staffan Jerneck,Marco Incerti,Sally Scott / Language(s): English

The euro crisis has inflicted severe financial, economic and political damage in all countries of the eurozone and beyond. Progress was made in 2012 to address these problems and to reduce the risk of repetition but they are by far not yet fully overcome. The good news is that this crisis has forced agreement on policy measures towards more centralised, European decision-making, which was unthinkable only a few years ago, and towards more European integration in those policy areas where this is needed. The recent positions taken by member countries in the European Council testify to the need as well as the difficulties of making real progress, requiring a combination of substantial solidarity and tough discipline on the part of all countries leading to further transfer of national sovereignty.

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Centre for European Policy Studies. Highlights 2013-14

Author(s): Edmond Alphandéry,Karel Lannoo,Daniel Gros,Kerstin Born-Sirkel,Sally Scott / Language(s): English

It is my great pleasure to introduce myself as the new Chairman of CEPS. Let me start by thanking my predecessor, H. Onno Ruding, who assisted CEPS’ management in growing the organisation to the globally recognised institution that it is today, while preserving its integrity and reputation for insightful and constructive ideas. I intend to continue in that tradition, bringing my expertise to the work of CEPS on some of the core issues on the European agenda in 2014. In particular, the complex arrangements to establish a Single Resolution Mechanism will be of major importance. CEPS will follow the work of the intergovernmental conference that is fleshing out the agreement, providing input and acting as a sounding board for its proposals.

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Centre for European Policy Studies. Highlights 2014-15

Author(s): Edmond Alphandéry,Karel Lannoo,Daniel Gros,Kerstin Born-Sirkel,Sally Scott / Language(s): English

At a time when nearly everyone has an opinion on the challenges facing Europe, CEPS is proudly continuing its 30-year mission of providing sound policy advice built on rigorous research. Our researchers help to shape policy by bringing academic discipline to the policy debate. We tackle the big, long-term questions and not just what’s fashionable at any given moment. At a time when many policy-makers are forced to focus on the immediate challenges, this is more important than ever. The European Union is in the midst of setting policy directions for years to come – on the future architecture of bank supervision, on eurozone governance, on migration. Our research is crucial in ensuring that policy builds on solid evidence.

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Centre for European Policy Studies. Highlights 2015-16

Author(s): Karel Lannoo,Daniel Gros,Kerstin Born-Sirkel,Sally Scott / Language(s): English

Turbulent times continue to provide plenty of food for thought. We are proud that CEPS has managed for several decades to provide expert analysis to an increasingly broad group of stakeholders on topical issues. For example, we have recently examined the migration crisis and the implications of a possible Grexit or Brexit for the EU. We have also addressed more long-standing policy problems such as Energy Union, innovation and deep and comprehensive agreements with important trading partners. With an eye to long-term global issues, CEPS was active in the negotiations for a new international climate change regime, providing a valuable and officially acknowledged contribution to the agreement reached at the COP21 in Paris. The last few months have also seen a worsening of the refugee crisis. Building on decades of research in the fields of migration and asylum, we have put forward concrete and evidencebased policy recommendations to decision-makers both in Brussels and in the national capitals.

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Centre for European Policy Studies. Highlights 2016-17

Author(s): Joaquín Almunia / Language(s): English

CEPS’ mission statement seems even more compelling today than it did when it was first adopted many years ago. Thinking ahead for Europe is imperative in light of the urgent challenges confronting the EU today, such as migration, Brexit and the rise of populism. This also applies to the many complex policy domains, such as energy union, capital markets union, economic governance, foreign policy and institutional reform, that require independent, authoritative and evidence-based analysis. Assessments by experts and carefully produced facts and figures tend to remain below the radar screen of current public discourse and they rarely make headlines. But these elements fully retain their value in today’s world in which policy-makers regularly face immensely difficult choices to address problems that are not susceptible to simple solutions or slogans. It is in this spirit that we pursue our work at CEPS.

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CEPS. Annual Report 2017-18

Author(s): Joaquín Almunia,Karel Lannoo / Language(s): English

Populists usually don’t have much use for complexity. They prefer to build their proposals on the basis of simplistic ideas about the pluralism of our societies and the definition of their electoral platforms. Moreover, we are in the midst of a period when “fake news” competes with reality in an attempt to attract the support of citizens or to manipulate their understanding of what is actually going on. Nowadays, the role of think-tanks is more important than ever before in exposing and countering these trends and providing authoritative analysis to policy-makers and other stakeholders. Based on rigorous analysis of the relevant literature, facts and data, think tanks make an essential contribution to the decision-making process by increasing the awareness of the new challenges and providing educated insights. Their findings and recommendations are instrumental in the design of effective policies, capable of achieving viable outcomes.

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Governance of the Bulgarian Public Procurement Sector: Corruption Risks and Criminal Prosecution

Author(s): Ruslan Stefanov,Todor Galev,Stefan Karaboev / Language(s): English

Despite the legislative and institutional progress, especially in terms of increased transparency and access to data, the public procurement (PP) sector in Bulgaria continues to be associated with high levels of corruption risk. The number of irregularities uncovered by the control bodies remains considerable. At the same time there is a lack of effective investigation, while criminal cases, involving PP, are still very limited and predominantly focused on the lower levels of governance.

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Financial Development and Economic Growth in CEE Countries

Author(s): Gergana Mihaylova-Borisova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Given the important financial sector’s role in economies, the study examines whether there is a relationship between the GDP growth and financial development of CEE countries. For this purpose, first the causality is tested by means of Granger-causality test and then an attempt is made to assess the influence of one variable on the other. The GDP growth and financial development’s relationship is examined for the ten countries in CEE, with the period covered being 2010-2022. It is expected that financial development has a great importance for the improved growth in the studied countries. Data on loans, deposits in the banking system, and market capitalization as a share of GDP are used. The results confirmed that financial sector contributes positively to the realization of higher and stable GDP growth in CEE countries.

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Global Sancflation as a Reflection of the Impact of Sanctions Against Russia to Inflation: Some (Im)possible Comparisons

Author(s): Elena Simeonova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper reflects some thoughts on the nexus between the sanctions against Russia and the global inflation rates since February 2022. The paper sets the following objectives: 1) to bring out and define the term sancflation, and 2) to search for other cases of similar global impact of the sanctions-inflation nexus. The thesis statement is that sanctions on Russia are unique and have global economic effects (including inflation) far greater than anything seen before. The global impact evaluation of Russia’s case should prompt a reconsideration of sanctions as a policy instrument.

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