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Russia Suspends the New START Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russia’s groundless suspension of the Russia-U.S. Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is yet another attempt to intimidate the West with nuclear weapons. By threatening an arms race, Russia seeks to force concessions regarding Ukraine. It is unable, however, to gain meaningful strategic advantage over the U.S. in such a race. It would entail costs for both sides, but they would be more severe for Russia, which is much weaker economically and further weakened by war and sanctions.

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European Agriculture: Climate and Other Environmental Challenges

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The reactions to two new European Commission (EC) strategies concerning food production and biodiversity reflect discord between the advocates of accelerating changes in agriculture and proponents of a more circumspect approach privileging high output and competitiveness. The Commission, by increasing the Common Agricultural Policy budget, aims to contribute to the implementation of the strategies and improve its chances of persuading the Council, the European Parliament, and other stakeholders to endorse them. However, the objectives set by the strategies will likely be limited.

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The Pandemic as an Impulse for the Development of New Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

A deep recession is projected for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market for new technologies providing solutions helpful during the health crisis, is developing dynamically. In the medium term, the research and development sector will gain importance and become attractive for investments, also for Polish companies.

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Chorwacja na drodze do przyjęcia euro

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.

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Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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The Main Challenges for China’s Internal Situation after the First Phase of the Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China faces rising debt and unemployment problems worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. restrictions. The economic difficulties spur dissatisfaction in society and the party apparatus. The solution to the problems includes increasing the share of the internal market in GDP growth. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are strengthening their rhetoric of rivalry with the West, which they blame for the difficulties. The central authorities also have tightened control over party officials. The anti-Western attitude along with the continual centralisation of power will make it impossible to compromise with the EU, for example, on increasing access to the Chinese market.

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The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.

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Estimating the Potential of China's Military Assistance to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

China’s military assistance to Russia would fill the majority of the latter’s needs and help it to regain the initiative in the war with Ukraine. Chinese support so far is based mainly on dual-use materials and items, but bilateral and multi-dimensional military cooperation between Russia and China will likely deepen. Ukraine’s partners might still influence and limit these areas of cooperation, which directly contribute to the continuation of war by Russia.

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№94: Much Ado About Very Little? Migration-Linked Development Assistance - the Cases of Poland and Norway

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

In response to the migration management crisis that peaked in Europe in 2015-2016, the EU institutions and some European states promised to address the “root causes of migration”, with development assistance seen as an important tool in that respect. By comparing the development cooperation policies of Poland and Norway, this paper shows how the development-migration nexus has been implemented in practice by new and traditional donors alike. Despite important differences at the rhetorical level, neither state has substantially changed their development cooperation to link it directly to migration interests. This demonstrates the limited usefulness of the “root causes of migration” approach.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the long-term economic development plans adopted in March this year, the Chinese authorities emphasised the need to expand China’s internal potential to reduce its interdependence on the U.S. and other partners - a decoupling. However, they tend to take a conservative approach to challenges related to indebtedness, lack of innovation, consumption, and demographic changes. Instead of proposing market reforms, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is systematically increasing its control over the economy. In foreign cooperation, they find it important to maintain the level of exports in the context of China’s share in global value chains, as well as to acquire technology. For the EU, this means the necessity to implement new market-protection mechanisms, and in the longer term transfer production from China to the EU.

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Negotiations Resume to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The meeting of representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition on 26 November in Mexico City marked a return to formal negotiations on overcoming the crisis in Venezuela. The parties agreed to establish a humanitarian fund and announced talks on presidential elections in 2024, among other issues. In response, the U.S. announced a conditional relief of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector. Further lifting of restrictions, depending on concessions from the regime of Nicolás Maduro, may be important for the global oil market, although only in a few years’ time.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.

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Deal Signed to Unblock Ukrainian Grain Exports

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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EU Financial Sanctions on Russia’s Banking Sector

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

On 2 March, the EU published further financial restrictions against Russia adopted in the scope of a third package of sanctions, including those related to the SWIFT system. Despite ambitious declarations at the European Council on 24-25 February, EU sanctions in the banking sector are selective, and the most important EU action so far has been to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia. To increase the problems of the Russian banking sector, the EU should freeze the assets of all major banks in Russia and cut off its entire sector from SWIFT. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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