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№93: Nord Stream 2 - What Germany Should Discuss with Its Allies

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The controversies surrounding Nord Stream 2 (NS2) since the beginning of the investment have not been addressed and some of them have grown even stronger. Russia has not given up its aggressive foreign policy, and despite that, the German authorities are advocating NS2 and support closer cooperation with Russia, for example, on climate change. This raises concerns about the consequences of Russo-German NS2 cooperation for long-term EU decarbonisation policy, as well as for EU and NATO cohesion. These issues and common policy on Russia should be the subject of open debate between the allies.

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№113: Kim Jong Un’s First Decade

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.

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№98: Relaunching Polish-U.S. Relations in the Biden Era

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Łukasz Kulesa,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The overall importance of the United States for Poland cannot be overstated. The defence dimension remains paramount, but there is also an increasingly visible economic and energy aspect to the relationship that is becoming more important as both sides deepen their trade relations. While controversies around Nord Stream 2 have had a negative impact, the overall positive dynamics in bilateral relations can be continued under the Biden administration. Given the broad overlap of the U.S. administration’s and Poland’s foreign and security policy goals, and their similar assessment of the challenges, there is potential for the partners to quickly bounce back from the turbulence of the first half of 2021.

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№115: Socioeconomic and Security Challenges to Climate Change Policy in Britain

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The United Kingdom remains one of the leaders in climate change policy in Europe and globally. The green transformation reached consensus among all major political parties and enjoys broad public support. Despite these favourable conditions, the public debate related to it has been revealing strong tensions over the costs, scale, and pace. In recent months, this debate has significantly deepened in the security dimension. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has placed the issues of control over critical infrastructure, self-sufficiency, and security of energy supplies at the centre of the British climate debate. For these reasons, the UK is an interesting case study highlighting the challenges for the climate transformation in Poland.

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№128: China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China perceives the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an expression of resistance to the U.S. and NATO hegemony and an important element of building a new international order that marginalises the West. Based on this, China is strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia, striving to weaken the international position of the U.S., the EU, and their partners, while testing reactions to a possible escalation of Chinese actions towards Taiwan, for example. President Xi Jinping expressed this policy course during his March visit to Russia. At the same time, China is trying to gain support from the countries of the Global South. This approach means a continuation of China’s assertive policy towards the European Union, among others.

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№116: The Role of Poland’s Return to UNIFIL in its Policy Towards the Middle East

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The return of the Polish contingent to the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in Lebanon after a 10-year break will have a positive impact on Poland’s image at the UN and confirms its commitment to global security. While cooperation between UNIFIL troops and the Lebanese Army (LAF) is progressing nearly flawlessly, Lebanon is facing a financial crisis that has led to a sharp decline in the LAF’s logistical and operational capabilities. Supporting the LAF will be important in the further fight against paramilitary organisations in UNIFIL-controlled areas, including the dominant Hezbollah, which also spreads Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine.

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№129: U.S. Defence Sector Faces Challenges Related to Support for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 so far has significantly reduced the American stockpiles of equipment and armaments prepared in the event of, among other things, a direct war with Russia or China. To fill the gaps, it is necessary, above all, to quickly increase the production capacity of the U.S. defence industry, as well as the industrial potential of American allies. Failure to implement the changes now could undermine the U.S. ability to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine while also supporting its allies in Asia and Europe, and consequently weaken the conventional deterrence of Russia and China.

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№117: Tracing the Development of EU Capabilities to Counter Hybrid Threats

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Countering hybrid threats is one of the main dimensions of the EU Strategic Compass, guiding the development of the Union’s capabilities in the field of international security. The document calls for combining the tools developed since 2016 to combat hybrid methods into an “EU Hybrid Toolbox”, which will also include new instruments and modes of action. While the primary responsibility for countering hostile hybrid activity will continue to lie with the Member States, the EU will have greater capacity to support and coordinate prevention and response. The EU approach focuses on non-military aspects and developing military capabilities to respond to hybrid crises, which increases the importance of cooperation with NATO in this area.

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№118: End of the Illusion: EU Partnership Holds Firm Despite India’s Stance on Russian Aggression

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Different reactions to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the European Union and India have not done immediate harm to their growing strategic partnership. The decisions to launch the EU-India Trade and Technology Council and to restart negotiations of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) point at reinforced political will in both the EU and India to deepen and strengthen cooperation. Yet, India’s position on the Russian violation of international law puts into question its commitment to the rules-based order, which can undermine the foundations of EU-India relations in the longer term. It might trigger a shift from a values-based to an interest-driven partnership. This makes the success of the FTA negotiations crucial for smoothening geopolitical differences and binding the two sides closer together.

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№132: The Belarusian Vector of the Russian Threat to NATO

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, now confirmed, and the recently announced redeployment of some Wagner Group fighters to this country is a powerful signal that what NATO is about to face to its East will be an even more multifaceted threat than before. By turning Belarus into a de facto vassal, Russia gains a whole set of new options of a hybrid, conventional and nuclear character for controlled escalation against NATO in the future. This poses a challenge for the Alliance’s approach to defence and deterrence, including in the nuclear dimension, as well as resilience-building efforts.

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№134: Seeking Ways to Exclude Russian Vendors from UN Procurement System

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

The UN Secretariat and other United Nations entities are conducting their procurement procedures without excluding suppliers from Russia despite its full-scale aggression against Ukraine. States condemning the invasion are seeking to restrict Russian companies from obtaining contracts. It is currently possible by removing individual suppliers from the UN procurement system. However, the organisation lacks a systemic solution allowing the exclusion of vendors from a particular state, even one blatantly violating international law.

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№209: Strategic Compass: Towards EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Although the EU’s flagship space systems are civilian in nature, they are increasingly being used for crisis management or foreign missions and operations. The pursuit of strategic autonomy of the Union, that is the ability to react independently to certain threats, will therefore depend on the development of space technologies. However, further enhancing the EU’s capabilities requires a precise definition of the links between the space sector and security. It also will be crucial for Polish enterprises operating in the space industry that the EU designates priority investment areas where they can benefit.

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№210: Forward Defence: a New Approach to NATO’s Defence and Deterrence Policy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in the threat of a Russian attack on NATO. This requires a fundamental shift in the Alliance’s approach to its defence and deterrence policy. As part of what the Alliance calls “forward defence”, the allies should deploy forces on the Eastern Flank that are capable of stopping a Russian attack from the very beginning. To strengthen its deterrence credibility, NATO should also officially end its self-imposed restrictions on the permanent deployment of troops on the Eastern Flank.

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№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

With the great-power competition between China and the U.S. intensifying, political cohesion within NATO could be endangered. The risk of this may be further exacerbated by the wide effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to enforce cuts or shifts of priorities in U.S. defence spending, increasing pressure on the NATO allies to contribute more to transatlantic and even global security. China’s growing power and influence coupled with the declining U.S. ability to defend its interests and the rules-based order will probably dominate the American threat perception for the long term. If NATO is unable to ensure a politically visible response to China’s rise, it may become difficult for U.S. politicians to justify the growing investments in the Alliance’s deterrence of Russia, including the deployment of American troops to Europe. NATO could limit the risk of such a scenario by the establishment of a “NATO-Pacific Forum” based on existing partnerships with like-minded countries from the Indo-Pacific region.

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№189: India and the Emerging Alliance of Democracies: High Stakes, Hard Choices

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

President Joe Biden has raised the prospect of the formation of a coalition of democracies to protect the rules-based global order, under threat from undemocratic regimes. This sounds like an attractive proposal for India, the world’s biggest democracy, both to raise its international profile and strengthen its partnership with the U.S. and its allies, as well as to hedge against authoritarian China. Yet, India’s willingness to join it is constrained by domestic backsliding on democratic standards, its traditional apprehensions about promotion of democracy, and pragmatic links with undemocratic partners.

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№180: Paint It Green: Russia and the Energy Transformation

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Russia’s decision to ratify the Paris Agreement shouldn’t be seen as a major shift in its approach to climate policy and green energy. The Kremlin’s main concern is not climate change but potentially lower demand for fossil fuels as a result of more restrictive climate policies pursued around the world and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, instead of genuine efforts to transform its energy sector, Russia will promote it as helpful in Europe’s energy transformation. Such tactics will be exploited to seek closer cooperation with Europe and to maintain Russia’s position as a gas exporter.

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№182: “The Decline of the U.S.”: The Chinese Discourse on Post-pandemic Relations with the United States

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The official Chinese discourse on relations with the United States focuses on presenting the pandemic as a critical failure of the Americans in power efficiency and global leadership. China showcases its own achievements in dealing with COVID-19 to strengthen the impression that Chinese solutions for dealing with international challenges are better than the American. At the same time, to avoid a sudden deterioration in relations with the U.S., which would endanger the development of its potential, China repeats its dedication to reach a compromise with the United States. The damaging effect current American policy has on transatlantic relations and multilateral initiatives makes China count more on Trump’s re-election than a Biden victory.

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№195: In Search of Direction: EU Strategic Compass

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Strategic Compass may provide momentum for EU defence cooperation, speed-up development of military capabilities in Europe, reinforce NATO’s defence and deterrence, and reduce transatlantic tensions over burden-sharing. Yet, some Member States are concerned about the negative effects of this strategising exercise on NATO, and may not implement its results if the EU military level of ambition is set too high. Hence, the Compass should take a middle-of-the-road approach: EU ambitions should be defined in terms of the ability of the Member States to provide decisive capabilities to crisis management operations run within different frameworks (UN, NATO, or coalition-led), while the EU itself should finally deliver on the promise of running autonomous rapid-reaction operations, deploying battle group-sized forces.

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№185: The Need to See the Wood Despite the Trees: The High Stakes of the EU-UK Talks on Their Future Relations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

With just six weeks before the Brexit transition period expires on 31 December 2020, a framework for a trade deal between the UK and EU is far from certain. The United Kingdom is the world’s sixth largest economy, and the prospect of it leaving the EU single market and customs union without any agreement increases the economic and security risks for Europe. But there is still an option for at least a basic “barebones” free trade agreement, which should be explored to enable an orderly transition to a new EU-UK relationship and its future upgrading.

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№197: Internet Platforms in the EU’s Focus

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

The largest American internet platforms have monopolised a number of services in the single digital market, escaping the scope of EU competition policy. The Apple-Google duopoly controls 99% of the global market for mobile operating systems and receives 50% of the revenue from online ads in the European Union. The EU, under the claim of digital sovereignty, is reaching for new tools, including regulations and taxes, to prevent further erosion of its market. The Union wants to be a leader in setting and promoting standards that incorporate the rights of citizens. Success in this area will depend on whether the scope of regulation will not excessively limit innovation and the development of European companies.

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