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Národní Bezpečnostní Strategie USA a ČR

Author(s): Radek Khol / Language(s): Czech

Národní bezpečnostní strategie USA (NBS), představená v září 2002, je programovým politickým dokumentem, kterým má každá americká administrativa osvětlit hlavní principy své bezpečnostní politiky Kongresu. Je to dokument zaměřený především na americkou veřejnost, ale slouží zároveň jako deklaratorní dokument i vůči okolnímu světu. NBS 2002 byla předložena se zpožděním a to dokonce až po základním dokumentu obranné politiky Quadrennial Defense Review, který by měl jinak z NBS vycházet. Je však prvním strategickým dokumentem, který definuje bezpečnostní politiku Bushovy administrativy po teroristických útocích z 11.9.2001. NBS v hlavních bodech navazuje na projev prezidenta Bushe ve West Pointu (VI/2002) i na projev o stavu Unie obsahující odkaz na „Osu zla“ (I/2002). Teroristické útoky na Ameriku jsou jasně definujícím referenčním bodem pro novou NBS, která se koncentruje především na boj USA proti mezinárodnímu terorismu, který se může spojit s „darebáckými státy“ (rogue states), potenciálně získat zbraně hromadného ničení (ZHN) a ohrozit tak americké zájmy, teritorium a občany bezprecedentním způsobem.

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Jak dál v jaderném odzbrojování

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): Czech

Policy paper upozorňuje na možnost zpomalení jaderněodzbrojovacího procesu, rozebírá hlavní důvody tohoto vývoje z hlediska řešení některých kontroverzních otázek a připomíná nutnost zvýšené aktivity nejaderných států k dosažení vize světa bez jaderných zbraní. S přihlédnutím k úspěšné pražské dubnové konferenci „The Prague Agenda – the Way Forward“ a získanému kreditu by proto bylo pro českou zahraniční politiku žádoucí aktivněji se zapojovat na různých odzbrojovacích fórech do vytvářených iniciativ, případně přicházet s vlastními návrhy. Oblasti možného zapojení do jaderněodzbrojovacího procesu zahrnují: sjednání smluv zakazujících použití jaderných zbraní a militarizaci vesmíru; urychlení vstupu smlouvy CTBT v platnost s důrazem na pozitivní dopad ratifikace této smlouvy Senátem USA; transparentnost, včetně vytvoření registru jaderných zbraní a štěpného materiálu Významnou úlohu by také sehrálo aktivní působení české zahraniční politiky ve prospěch svolání blízkovýchodní konference v r. 2012 s účastí všech zemí tohoto krizového regionu.

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A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

Author(s): Yury Fedorov / Language(s): English

Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

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Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The 9th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held from 27 April to 22 May 2015 at the UN Headquarters in New York, but it failed. The Czech Republic should engage in urging other countries to achieve progress in nuclear disarmament through a compromise approach known as “the building blocks”. In parallel, it should also actively support the process of emphasizing the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the Czech Republic’s good relations with Israel should focus on the support for holding a Middle East conference on the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, a project enjoying long-term EU support. It would also be desirable for the Czech Republic to continue with its strong support for the achievement of the NPT’s universality, the early entry of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty into force and the start of a substantive debate about the main points at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

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Česká republika v mírových operacích OSN: Komplikovaný návrat

Author(s): Jan Daniel,Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): Czech

V posledních letech dochází k obnovení zájmu západoevropských států o působení v mírových operacích OSN. Snahu o zapojení vyjádřila i Česká republika, nicméně s výjimkou nasazení speciálních sil v Mali prozatím bez výraznějšího výsledku. V rámci Armády i Policie České republiky existují zkušenosti a kapacity, které se protínají s požadavky současných mírových operací. U většiny institucí ale došlo ke ztrátě institucionální paměti z působení v OSN. Pro efektivní působení v mírových operacích je zapotřebí kvalitnější komunikace na diplomatické a institucionální úrovni a vybudování širší politické strategie.

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Principles of Russian Military Thought

Author(s): Nicolò Fasola / Language(s): English

The aim of this paper is to identify the enduring principles at the basis of Russian military thought, offering an alternative to the contemporary analytical mainstream – which deems Moscow’s military behavior to be revolutionary and unprecedented. This is based on comparative analysis of Russian official military discourse and practice between 2008 and 2016. Critical inspection of the two Military Doctrines approved during this time frame and of various military drills will reveal a series of rhetorical and operational recurrences. Notwithstanding numerous changes at the international and domestic levels that could have had an impact on Russian military behavior, no substantive shift is distinguishable.These empirical findings will constitute the basis for a reconstruction of Russian military thought. Through a deductive method, we will be able to reconstruct the ultimate assumptions granting them logical coherence and legitimization. Far from being incomprehensible, Russian military thought will be presented as the adaptation of classical strategic principles to contemporary contingencies.

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Kick-Starting Cosmopolitan Governance Through Science: The Case of a Giant Laser System

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych,Nikola Schmidt / Language(s): English

The following policy paper proposes a novel perspective on how large technical systems can enable global governance. We base our argument on several current scientific international collaborations (CERN, ITER) and postulate how their success could be extended to dual-use technologies in space, arguing that the normative frame not the technology itself is fundamental to how it is perceived. We propose that large technical systems, or “scientific machines”, have constitutive power to shape the system of global governance which can be turned to humanity’s advantage if normative frameworks are developed for them. The argument is exemplified on the case of Giant Laser Systems (GLS) such as the Breakthrough Initiatives’ Starshot program which not only may change radically the way stars are studied (and thus enable new scientific discoveries), but can also contribute to solving practical problems such as growing orbital debris and empower global actors to conceive security regimes concerning sensitive technologies in space. In conclusion, recommendations are articulated for a state such as the Czech Republic for which a pragmatic normative framework defined herein provides a useful perspective to look at governance of new technologies that ensures normatively desirable outcomes of sweeping technological change, and stimulate international scientific collaboration with positive spill-over effects to other domains of international cooperation.

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EUROPEAN SECURITY INTEGRATION IN THE 1990s

Author(s): Ian Gambles / Language(s): English

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the concept of European security integration. This is a complex and difficult concept, a nexus of different ideas rather than a coherent idea in its own right. Integration is the combination of diverse parts to make a whole, and international integration is the product of a process of convergence between the policies, procedures, institutions, commitments, and expectations of a number of different states and peoples. Security is a more contested idea, but may provisionally be understood as the protection of a people from external threats, and includes arrangements for defence and deterrence. Now while European integration generally refers to the development of European unity among the Twelve(1) in the context of the Treaty of Rome, European security is generally considered within the context of the North Atlantic Treaty. The words `integration' and `security' have tended to be claimed by two distinct groups of students and practitioners. Thus the transition from the familiar debates in the field of European security, where integration meant no more than international cooperation, to a new debate in the context of the process of European political integration, involves the coming together of historically separate traditions of thought.

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EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AFTER THE COLD WAR

Author(s): Roberto Zadra / Language(s): English

This paper starts from the assumption that a new, credible, coherent and comprehensive Western strategic concept has not yet emerged. This is certainly the case for the Atlantic Alliance. In fact, the `New Strategic Concept' agreed on the occasion of the Alliance's Rome summit in November 1991 is already dated in the sense that it has been overtaken in many ways, particularly by the collapse of the Soviet Union and by recent developments in the newly created independent republics. Furthermore, even if it starts from the comprehensive premise that `security and stability have political, economic, social, and environmental elements as well as the indispensable defence dimension', the new concept does not say much on how to attain this, since the Atlantic Alliance has not traditionally used non-military means to establish European security and stability. For the time being, although major changes in force posture have already been initiated, as a declared policy NATO's strategic concept remains characterised more by traditional ideas than by new thinking. This is particularly evident in the passages of the Rome document dealing with the future role of nuclear weapons: `To protect peace and to prevent war or any kind of coercion, the Alliance will maintain for the foreseeable future an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional forces based in Europe and kept up to date where necessary, although at a significantly reduced level ... Nuclear weapons make a unique contribution in rendering the risks of any aggression incalculable and unacceptable. Thus, they remain essential to preserve the peace.'

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Gra pozorów - Impas w sprawie wojny w Donbasie

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): Polish

9 grudnia minął rok od paryskiego szczytu przywódców Ukrainy, Rosji, Francji i Niemiec – uczestników tzw. formatu normandzkiego – poświęconego uregulowaniu konfliktu w Donbasie. Choć był on pierwszym spotkaniem od 2016 r., to nie przyniósł przełomu, a większości zawartych wówczas uzgodnień nie wypełniono. Wskutek obstrukcji Moskwy nie doszło m.in. do wycofania sił zbrojnych i ciężkiego sprzętu z kolejnych odcinków tzw. linii rozgraniczenia oraz otwarcia nowych punktów jej przekraczania, nie przeprowadzono też wymiany jeńców na zasadzie „wszyscy za wszystkich”, Specjalnej Misji Obserwacyjnej OBWE na Ukrainie nie zapewniono dostępu do wszystkich terenów okupowanych, a Kijów nie włączył do prawodawstwa tzw. formuły Steinmeiera. Główna przyczyna fiaska negocjacji to niechęć Rosji do realnego uregulowania konfliktu. Problemem są też utrzymujące się zasadnicze różnice w interpretacji i kolejności wypełniania poszczególnych zapisów tzw. porozumień mińskich z lutego 2015 r., odzwierciedlające sprzeczne interesy Moskwy i Kijowa. Dążenie Kremla do znormalizowania relacji z Zachodem oraz społeczne oczekiwania na Ukrainie sprawiają, że obie strony uciekają się do pozorowanych działań i wzajemnie obwiniają się o sabotowanie procesu pokojowego. Brak perspektywy zakończenia wojny obciąża Wołodymyra Zełenskiego, gdyż uregulowanie konfliktu miało być głównym zadaniem jego prezydentury.

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Implications of the second Nagorno Karabakh war for Armenia

Author(s): Benyamin Poghosyan / Language(s): English

The second Nagorno Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of ist territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3,000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate. The defeat of Armenia will have profound economic and political implications for Armenia and will affect Armenia's foreign and defense policy.

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Again, the Visible Hand. Slobodan Milošević's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute (ICG Yugoslavia Report No. 2 - - 6 May 1998)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This International Crisis Group (ICG) report describes the complex political forces at work in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and examines how they are propelling Kosovo toward war. The report, prepared by an ICG field analyst based in Belgrade, attempts to explain why Milošević has so far opted to ignore the seemingly compelling logic of peace and adopted a confrontational policy toward Kosovo's Albanians and the Contact Group. The report also shows how the disunity of the Contact Group has wasted crucial time, and it projects future short-term developments in Kosovo by carrying forward the thrust of the logic inherent in the present positions of Milošević and Kosovo's Albanians.

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Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic’s gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo’s Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start. The Milosevic-Rugova meeting took place in the aftermath of six months of escalating violence in Kosovo between Serbian police and a separatist Albanian militia, known as the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). It also followed intense US shuttle diplomacy under the auspices of Richard Holbrooke, architect of the Bosnian peace settlement.

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A Peace, or just a Cease-Fire? The military Equation in Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper concerns three military topics that are seldom raised in relation to one another but that cannot meaningfully be assessed in isolation. Taken together, they are likely to have a decisive effect on the future of the DPA: the balance of military forces among the former combatants on a sub-regional level; the US-sponsored Train and Equip programme; and the NATO exit strategy. The balance of military forces among the former combatants, including the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and Croatia, has been the focus of a sub-regional arms reduction process monitored by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Levels were set at a ratio of 5:2:2, based on the approximate size of the populations of FRY, Croatia and Bosnia, further divided on a 2:1 ratio between the Federation and Republika Srpska. On 21 November 1997, the OSCE announced that all four parties had met their reduction liabilities by the 31 October deadline. Republika Srpska and the FRY destroyed the most weapons but remained at or near the allowed ceilings, since they had by far the largest excess of weapons at the start of the process. The Federation was only required to destroy artillery.

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MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN? Briefing on the Yugoslav leader’s latest manoeuvres (ICG Balkans Report Nº 53)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia’s military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic’s opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade’s handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic “yes-men” regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic’s and Perisic’s sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic’s rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic’s resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Iran i Srednji istok Perspektive na starim premisama: Denuklearizacija lrana. Povratak Rusije. Strah među Arapima. Skepticizam Izraela.

Author(s): Hajrudin Somun / Language(s): Bosnian

In everything that has happened in the Middle East in the last few decades, especially since the "Arab Spring" in 2011, which turned from a mass social revolt against authoritarian authorities into its antipode - the so-called The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Daesh as it is abbreviated in the Middle East, the political, ideological and military role of Iran could not be ignored. However, the door to the Middle East was reopened to the Islamic Republic only in the summer of 2015, after the conclusion of an agreement on its nuclear program with the five world powers on which international politics rests. The nuclear deal with Iran, in itself, could have contributed to calming tensions and regional security, so it was accepted, with more or less approval, by most Arab countries and Turkey, but Saudi Arabia and Israel rejected it and accepted it as a threat to their own existence.

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MILOŠEVIĆ’S AIMS IN WAR AND DIPLOMACY (ICG Balkans Report N° 65)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report, prepared by ICG’s Belgrade-based analyst, looks back on an extraordinary two months of war and diplomacy in the Balkans. It argues that Milosevic, while not actively willing NATO bombing, was prepared for that eventuality3 and examines how he has used it to his advantage. The start of NATO’s air campaign on 24 March 1999 provided Milosevic with the cover to unleash his own ground war within Kosovo. Within hours of the first NATO missiles being fired, Yugoslav forces, including paramilitaries, embarked on the most vicious and extensive campaign of ethnic cleansing seen in Europe since World War II. An estimated 88 percent of the Kosovo population have been driven from their homes, the bulk forced to seek refuge outside of Yugoslavia. For the first three weeks of NATO air strikes, Milosevic sought to shore up his position at home, assuming sweeping war-time powers, refusing to countenance any concessions to NATO’s demands and riding a wave of nationalist resentment directed against the West. During this phase of the conflict, Milosevic strove to emphasise that the Serbs was not alone in the world, holding out the prospect of Serbia’s allies, in particular Russia, intervening militarily to protect the country from attack. Much play was made of remarks by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and members of the Russian legislature that NATO’s action risked triggering a new world war.

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KLA / UCK? (ICG Balkans Report N° 88)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA – or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it. This report focuses on the period since mid-1999, after the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) was deployed and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) was installed. It traces the nature and extent of the influence the KLA still wields; evaluates that influence and the way the international community, through UNMIK and KFOR, has dealt with it; and suggests how it might be dealt with in future.

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ARMING SADDAM: The Yugoslav Connection (ICG Balkans Report N°136)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The democratic government elected in Belgrade in 2000 did not end the extensive busting of arms sanctions engaged in for many years by its predecessor, the Milosevic dictatorship. The NATO (SFOR) troops who raided an aircraft factory in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska on 12 October 2002 found documents that have begun to strip the veils of secrecy from this significant scandal. From ICG’s own investigations, as well as from those initial revelations and stories that have appeared subsequently in the Serbian press, it appears that arms deals of considerable monetary value continued with Iraq and Liberia despite the change of administrations. The disclosures open a window on the real power structures inside Yugoslav politics. That the special relationship with Iraq (and with Liberia) continued indicates that civilian control over the military is still absent, that connections between criminal, military and political elements are extensive, and that the two strongmen of the post-Milosevic era, Kostunica and Djindjic, have thus far been impotent or unprepared to assert civilian control over the military or remove Milosevic cronies from top positions.

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Политически брифинг № 141 на CSD: ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЕ НА ХИБРИДНИТЕ ЗАПЛАХИ ОТ НЕКОНВЕНЦИОНАЛНИ ОРЪЖИЯ В ЧЕРНОМОРСКИЯ РЕГИОН

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

This policy brief examines Russia’s renewed interest in unconventional weapons as a means of power projection which includes the use of state-sponsored targeted assassinations involving hard-to-detect chemical, biological, or radioactive substances. The Kremlin uses disinformation campaigns that exploit issues related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the countries in the Black Sea region as a form of cognitive warfare designed to advance Russia’s geopolitical agenda by preying on public anxieties. Black Sea regional security cooperation, strategic engagement with EU and NATO partners, and enhanced institutional capacity at the national level to combat media capture and disinformation are critical for harmonising the efforts to deter and counter the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare strategy and bolster the region’s defence capabilities.

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