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The Role of Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraqi Politics

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The activity of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a state-financed organisation of around 60 militias, deepens the political crisis in Iraq. This was mirrored in their brutal suppression of anti-government protests and a series of attacks between PMF Kataib Hezbollah (KH) forces and U.S. troops. The structure of the PMF and their political influence in Iraq and abroad prevent the state from controlling the militias. This hinders attempts to calm the ongoing protests in Iraq and threatens the security of the military missions present there. The absorption of PMF members directly into the army and demobilisation of some militias could counteract this.

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Siły Mobilizacji Ludowej w polityce Iraku

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

Działania Sił Mobilizacji Ludowej (SML) – finansowanej przez rząd Iraku organizacji zrzeszającej ok. 60 bojówek – pogłębiają kryzys polityczny w Iraku. Było to widoczne podczas brutalnego tłumienia przez nie antyrządowych protestów i serii ataków między należącym do SML Kataib Hezbollah (KH) a siłami USA. Struktura SML oraz ich wpływy polityczne w Iraku i za granicą uniemożliwiają państwu kontrolę nad bojówkami. Utrudnia to uspokojenie trwających w Iraku protestów i zagraża bezpieczeństwu obecnych tam misji wojskowych. Przeciwdziałać temu mogłoby włączanie członków SML bezpośrednio do armii i demobilizacja części bojówek.

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Turkey’s Interests in Idlib

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The agreement signed on 5 March between Russia and Turkey has halted the offensive by the Syrian army on Idlib and led to a new division of influence in the province. Both Turkey and Russia are using the truce to strengthen their military presence in this territory. The coronavirus pandemic may delay the resumption of fighting in Idlib, giving the EU time to prepare for a renewed escalation and attempts by Turkey to instrumentally use an exodus of Syrian refugees to exert pressure on the Union.

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The Importance of Turkey in Russian Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English

Despite the recurring Turkish-Russian tensions concerning Syria, the Russian authorities seek to deepen relations with Turkey. Cooperation between them is an important element of Russia’s policy of weakening the Euro-Atlantic community and maintaining hegemony in gas supplies to the EU. Also, Russia’s political and military involvement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has made Turkey an indispensable partner in the Mediterranean region.

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Znaczenie Turcji w polityce Federacji Rosyjskiej

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): Polish

Mimo powracających napięć turecko-rosyjskich wokół Syrii władze Federacji Rosyjskiej będą dążyć do pogłębienia stosunków z Turcją. Współpraca z tym państwem stanowi istotny komponent rosyjskiej polityki osłabiania wspólnoty euroatlantyckiej oraz utrzymania hegemonii w dostawach gazu do UE. Ponadto Turcja stała się dla Rosji niezbędnym partnerem w regionie śródziemnomorskim ze względu na jej polityczno-militarne zaangażowanie na Bliskim Wschodzie i w Afryce Północnej.

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Against the Army: Algeria’s Anti-government Protests

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

For over a year, anti-government protests have been ongoing in Algeria. Demonstrators are demanding the establishment of a new cabinet which would not be associated with the former regime. These aspirations were not met by the presidential election that took place in December 2019. Most Algerians boycotted the poll, criticising the links between the candidates and the army. Algerian lower officers expressed support for the protesters’ demands. The European Union, which is Algeria’s most important trading partner, could initiate mediation between the army and protesters.

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How Should NATO Shore Up Its Southern Flank?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The security vacuum in the Middle East and North Africa will have long-term negative consequences for the stability of Europe. The offensive of the Islamic State (IS), mass migration, and Russia’s attempts to rebuild its influence in opposition to the West in general and to the U.S and NATO in particular, will intensify new threats for NATO and its partners. Hence, NATO should adopt new policy on the Mediterranean, which will include investments in capabilities necessary for defence and crisis management missions, as well as for cooperation with partner countries.

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Jak wzmocnić południową flankę NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): Polish

Próżnia bezpieczeństwa na Bliskim Wschodzie i w Afryce Północnej może być długofalowym zagrożeniem dla NATO. Ekspansja Państwa Islamskiego, masowe migracje oraz próby odbudowania przez Rosję wpływów w opozycji do Zachodu będą nasilały zagrożenia dla całego Sojuszu, a także dla jego partnerów. Dlatego NATO powinno opracować nową politykę wobec regionu Morza Śródziemnego, która uwzględni nie tylko wzmacnianie zdolności do obrony i prowadzenia misji reagowania kryzysowego, lecz także umożliwi bliższą współpracę z państwami partnerskimi.

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Russia’s Operation in Syria: The Kremlin’s Propaganda Game

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): English

In Russian media, the message of its intervention in Syria is one of defending national interests. By its military engagement in the Middle East, the country aims to accomplish a number of foreign and domestic policy goals. In the international arena, it is seeking to break its isolation by forcing contact with the U.S. and the West in general by attempting to take over the initiative in the Middle East while demonstrating its military might. Both inside and outside the country, however, the Kremlin presents a false image of the situation in Syria. On the domestic stage it helps it to meet its goal of effective mobilisation of support for its policies.

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Operacja w Syrii – propagandowa rozgrywka Kremla

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): Polish

W rosyjskim przekazie medialnym interwencja w Syrii przedstawiana jest jako obrona interesów narodowych. Przy okazji Rosja realizuje cele w polityce zagranicznej i wewnętrznej. Na arenie międzynarodowej przełamuje izolację, wymuszając kontakty z USA i Zachodem, oraz przejmuje inicjatywę polityczną na Bliskim Wschodzie, demonstrując siłę militarną. Zarówno na zewnątrz, jak i wewnątrz kraju Kreml prezentuje fałszywy obraz sytuacji w Syrii. Na arenie wewnętrznej ma on służyć zyskaniu poparcia społecznego dla działań władz.

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Kunduz Taken: Effects of the Taliban Offensive on the Future of Afghanistan

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

The ongoing clashes between the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) backed by U.S. troops on one side and the Taliban on the other in the Afghan city of Kunduz has exposed fundamental shortcomings in the government’s current counter-insurgency strategy as well as the weakness of the Afghan troops now deployed in the province. The enormous difficulty in regaining control over the city points to the need for re-evaluation of the current use of allied forces in Afghanistan, their rules of engagement, as well as the necessity of increasing assistance to the Afghan National Army (ANA). Moreover, the Afghan Ministry of Defence should be strengthened, training of ANA intensified and supplies delivered at a quicker pace. Losing control over this strategic province runs the risk the Taliban offensive will reach Kabul and other provinces. If it does, Afghanistan could become an arena of competition between various political forces in the country and once again entangle it in a long and debilitating conflict.

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Kunduz wzięty – skutki ofensywy talibów dla przyszłości Afganistanu

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): Polish

Starcia sił rządowych i wspierających je wojsk amerykańskich z talibami w afgańskim mieście Kunduz obnażyły zasadnicze niedostatki strategii zwalczania rebelii oraz słabość stacjonujących tam oddziałów afgańskiej armii. Ogromne trudności z odzyskaniem kontroli nad miastem wskazują na konieczność ponownej ewaluacji planu obecności wojsk sojuszniczych, reguł ich zaangażowania, a także zwiększenia wsparcia dla afgańskich sił zbrojnych. Potrzebne będzie usprawnienie działalności afgańskiego Ministerstwa Obrony, zintensyfikowanie szkoleń żołnierzy oraz przyśpieszenie realizacji programów pozyskiwania sprzętu i uzbrojenia. Utrata kontroli nad strategiczną prowincją Kunduz grozi rozprzestrzenieniem się ofensywy talibów na kolejne prowincje, a Afganistan znów może stać się areną rywalizacji różnych sił politycznych oraz uwikłać się w kolejny długotrwały i wyniszczający konflikt wewnętrzny.

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Treść i skutki ostatecznego porozumienia nuklearnego P5+1 z Iranem

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Podpisana niedawno umowa mocarstw (P5+1) z Iranem zakłada bezprecedensowe ograniczenie skali i kontrolę potencjału nuklearnego tego kraju. Konsekwentna jej realizacja zmniejszy ryzyko budowy arsenału atomowego Iranu przez co najmniej 10–15 lat. Porozumienie jest rezultatem kompromisu USA w sprawie znoszenia sankcji w zamian za zamrożenie i redukcję wszystkich elementów irańskiego programu. Ze względu na swój techniczny charakter nie gwarantuje ono jednak podjęcia przez Teheran decyzji o reformach wewnętrznych, liberalizacji gospodarki lub zmianie polityki regionalnej. Nie dotyczy też programu rakietowego Iranu, co oznacza potrzebę dalszej realizacji planów obrony przeciwrakietowej USA i NATO, w tym instalacji w Redzikowie.

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Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.

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North Korea’s Support for Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

North Korea was one of only five countries that voted against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The North Korean support for Russia results mainly from both countries’ hostility towards the U.S., their relatively close bilateral relations in recent years, and Russia’s stance for easing sanctions on North Korea. North Korea-Russia rapprochement may result in cooperation in circumventing sanctions. Russia’s likely veto on any further UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on North Korea may additionally induce the North to resume long-range ballistic missile and nuclear tests.

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Potential of EU Support for Ukraine’s Fight with Russia

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The EU actively uses international support mechanisms for Ukraine, in the economic, military and crisis management dimensions. In order for this aid to be effective, it should meet the needs of Ukraine and be coordinated at the EU and Member States level. Ukraine’s further defence potential and the situation of the civilian population depend on the prompt provision of aid, including direct deliveries of weapons, military and rescue equipment.

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The OSCE and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Russia’s attack on Ukraine, supported by Belarus, and Russia’s blocking of the extension of the mandate of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine calls into question the purpose of the organisation. Yet, despite the depreciating attitude of Russia and Belarus toward the organisation and its principles, the continuation of its work is necessary as a forum for contact and selective cooperation of the two countries with EU and NATO members, among other things. Poland’s chairmanship of the OSCE in 2022 demonstrates that it actively participates in shaping the functioning of the organisation.

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Flexible Neutrality: Austria on the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

In visits to Ukraine and Russia, Chancellor Karl Nehammer emphasised the neutral status of Austria, which is engaged in dialogue with the warring sides. The Austrian government’s status explains its lack of arms supplies to Ukraine, while Austria’s high level of dependence on energy resources from Russia explains its reluctance to impose the EU embargo on them. This position may change if the embargo is backed by other EU countries that are also reluctant to impose it.

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Belarus Declares It Will Upgrade Its Armed Forces

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 26 May, Alexander Lukashenka announced the creation of a third operational command – South - of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He also announced plans to speed up rearming of the army, arguing that the threat posed by Ukraine and NATO countries is growing. However, given the country’s budgetary constraints, the proposed reform will not mean a significant increase in the potential of the Belarusian army in the near future. The change most likely stems from the needs of the Russian Armed Forces related to the war in Ukraine and other reasons. It also shows that the Belarusian authorities have become completely dependent on Russia in their security and defence policy.

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Ukrainians Resist in the Occupied South

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Since mid-April this year, acts of sabotage and subversion against the occupation forces, attacks on local collaborators, and information and psychological operations have been taking place in the southern areas of Ukraine. Their aim is to weaken the morale of the Russian troops, discourage the local population from collaborating, and maintain their determination to oppose the occupation authorities. At present, the scale and scope of these activities are insufficient to contribute to changing the operational situation on the southeastern front; however, strengthening the resistance movement to intensify its activities could play an important role in a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.

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