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Symulacyjna analiza wpływu liczby i rozmieszczenia luk niesystematycznych na dokładność prognoz

Author(s): Maciej Oesterreich / Language(s): Polish Issue: 48/2015

In this paper there was conducted a statistical analysis of the impact of the distribution of unsystematic gaps on the accouracy of inter- and extrapolative forecasts in the seasonal time series. In the analysis, as variable, there was used the average period of stay of tourists in accommodation establishments in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship in the years 2008-2013. In calculations there were used simulation methods to generate ten thousand sets of gaps for the three variants, differed in the number of gaps. For all the set and variants of gaps, there were estimated time series models with exponential trend and relatively-fixed seasonality. In the next step there were built inter- and extrapolative forecasts and calculated their relative errors (MAPE). In the analysis there were used R program and Statistica 10.

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THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DONORS ON NGO PRACTICE AND POLICY-MAKING

Author(s): Jonathan Webb / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2016

Different views exist regarding the relationship between international aid donors and recipient organisations. International donors are either seen as essential actors for democratising societies or as external interventions that further advance the interests of certain groups. Using Serbia as a case study, this paper argues that by analysing the structure of donor-recipient relationships, a more nuanced understanding emerges based on an analysis of the formal and informal mechanisms that link donors and actors. To reach this understanding, an initial case study of a donor organisation, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), is conducted. By undertaking a network analysis of donorrecipient relationships on UNHCR funded programmes, the agenda setting power of donor organisations is demonstrated. This initial analysis demonstrates how financial capital first links these groups. Over time, financial capital crystallises into social capital that sustains non-governmental organisation (NGO) ‘cliques’. Advancing this initial analysis, a second stage of network analysis demonstrates how NGO cliques interact with an organisation capable of influencing government social inclusion and poverty reduction policy. In reflecting on these actor networks, it is demonstrated how social capital constituted through both formal and informal linkage, remains crucial for the UNHCR to implement its objectives, for NGOs to ensure their continued relevance and for government actors to obtain policy advice.

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Проблема безработицы среди молодежи и возможности ее решения

Author(s): Peter Marinič,Viliam Záthurecký / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2016

This article focuses on youth unemployment and how entrepreneurialism may represent a viable alternative to traditional job seeking. It is our belief that the youth of today are capable of starting new enterprises which, over the long-term, can lead to viable and profitable busi-nesses. The article looks at the situation of the youth population with regard to employment and unemployment, addresses the possible motivations behind entrepreneurialism, and discusses the expected problems connected with start-ups. The analyses are conducted at two levels. The first is at the European and national levels where data from European Union respondents is compared to that of the respondents from the Czech Republic. The second is at the national and regional levels where data from the Czech Republic is compared to that of the respondents from Masaryk University. The aim is to isolate the potential motivations and barriers surrounding the establishment of new enterprises at each level and to determine if entrepreneurialism could be an attractive alternative to traditional job seeking within youth populations at the European, national and regional levels.

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The Role of Sustainable Development in the Protection of Traditional Local Heritage

Author(s): Mila Popović-Živančević / Language(s): English Issue: 8/2016

The concept of sustainable development involved in a unique system includes three basic principles of contemporary social development: economic development, social harmony and the preservation of human living environment (protection of cultural and natural heritage together). Sustainable development clearly emphasizes and it sets up an integrative concept of heritage conservation as a common and comprehensive care of natural and cultural heritage. Therefore, the contemporary interpretation of the term implies the legacy (of both cultural and natural heritage). In this way, an integrative concept of joint preservation of natural and cultural heritage becomes an integrated part, which is irreplaceable and a key factor for sustainable development. With the well-conceived strategy, local traditional heritage can be easily integrated into sustainable development and at the service of economic development and social harmony. It is necessary to make local communities to become active in presenting and the achievement of quality heritage. It is also necessary to be structurally involved in their procedures, laws, cultural and political goals. In accordance with this, the protection of local cultural and natural heritage and its potential should be defined as a key means of achieving sustainable development.

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Dekapilaryzacja władzy

Author(s): Rafał Drozdowski,Maciej Frąckowiak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2017

This article focuses on analyzing changes in modern forms of governance. On the basis of the literature, the authors briefly reconstruct the reasons why sociology is adopting a “soft” approach to power, that is, one that primarily explores its exercise in subjectless forms, especially outside of state institutions. The authors next consider the social conditions producing a growing desire for a more traditional kind of power, and identify the key factors that could indicate its restoration in the institutions shaping the social order of today. In conclusion, the authors attempt to determine the possible effects of a “decapillarization” of power, and especially the model of power/ governance that could emerge from it.

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Status prawny gminy w przepisach projektu kodeksu urbanistyczno-budowlanego

Author(s): Tomasz Bąkowski / Language(s): Polish Issue: XXXIV/2015

The provisions of the draft of the urban planning and construction code in the version of 14 April 2014 locate a municipality among the participants of the investment and construction process. The proposed solutions tend to reﬂect on the current and proposed legal position of a municipality, especially in relation to the formulation and implementation of the local land-use planning policy. It should be noticed that the draft uses the concept of “a municipality” as a participant of the investment and construction process instead of “municipal authorities”, which is a sign of the empowerment of the residents of the local community in this sphere of public life. This thesis seems to be confirmed by more detailed regulations provided in the draft of urban planning and construction code.

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Statistical methods of estimating loss reserves in general insurance

Author(s): Ion PÂRȚACHI,Oleg Verejan,Marcel Bradu,Victoria Verejan / Language(s): English Issue: Spec/2010

Relevant estimation of loss reserves related to general insurance activity was and is one of the most important issues for insurance companies. Maintenance of loss reserves at the right level represents the key condition of insurance monitoring authorities as the result of performance indicators of their activity depends on the value of these reserves. The forecasted value of future loss referred to prior events represents the loss reserve. In this paper, we present stochastic methods (Christofides method) of estimating the loss reserves, especially those of incurred but not reported reserves. The stochastic methods presented in the paper, in contrast to the determinist ones, adjust the result better and offer more information referring to the quality of data and exactness level of damage reserve forecast.

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Systematische Planung kompetenzorientierten Unterrichts – Was heißt Kompetenzorientierung im Unterricht?

Author(s): Wilhelm Schwendemann / Language(s): German Issue: 2 (15)/2016

PISA studies have brought about a radical change in the design of teaching and educational planning. The focus has become centred on skill-based orientation in the cognitive acquisition of qualities, abilities and skills. This essay presents the concept of skill-based learning, with a critical commentary on the quality standard of successful teaching.

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Rodzina – jej funkcje i zagrożenia. Studium na przykładzie województwa Warmińsko-Mazurskiego

Author(s): Jacek Marek Nogowski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2015

The family as the smallest social entity underlies each society and fulfills three basic functions: procreative, educational and economic. Among others, deteriorating economic conditions, i.e. high unemployment rate, low salary,increase of both running and educational costs are the main problems that face contemporary families. Expansion of pathological phenomena e.g. alcoholism,drug addiction, violence within the family, and crime can lead to the break-down of the family. Other threats to the family persistence are disintegration of an extended family, lowering number of children per family.

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Како мотивисати креаторе политике да се суоче са демографским изазовима?

Author(s): Mirjana M. Rašević,Vladimir Nikitović,Dragana Lukić-Bošnjak / Language(s): English Issue: 148/2014

If we want to understand the deeper truth, or intend to interpret phenomena through the perception of a specific population, a more holistic perspective might be necessary. By applying foresight exercise, some new patterns might be discovered and shifts in study aspects inhibited. Such an approach intends to give meaning to future perceptions, expectations and fears of experts, decision makers and civilians. Its activities are designed to address critical questions, which might significantly shape the future of a country in the coming years. Foresight exercise reinforces thinking about what future steps should be taken, if a specific scenario becomes reality. Personal life stories based on binary opposition of the futures of a country can be used to unambiguously show the policy makers all the relevant implications that different futures might have regarding fertility, migration, population ageing, human capital and labour market in Serbia in the forthcoming period. Furthermore, it seems that such foresight exercise, as a qualitative approach, can provide additional insight into quantitative methods of forecasting demographic future of a country.

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Кa реконструкцији теорије планирања

Author(s): Tijana Dabović,Dejan P. Đorđević / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2008

This article intends to determine whether or not the extensive debate within the Planning Theory has led to a better understanding of the meaning 'planning' and a clarification of its role. Since the response to this question is negative, the article will examine: what are the reasons for that situation and under what conditions a further development of the debate and research can achieve a real contribution to what should be its main objectives - better understanding of planning and helping to perfect its methods.

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„Nikt nie zostaje bez środków do życia”. Dochód podstawowy w perspektywie futurologicznej

Author(s): Beata Królicka / Language(s): Polish Issue: 7/2016

The Author considers the issue of introducing the basic income and the impact which such a decision would exert on the society in the long term. The Author presents concepts by Richard Wilkinson and Guy Standing, which are to result in the building of an inclusive society in which every person is guaranteed resources to live on. The Author analyses the concept of basic income presenting its historical background and previous examples of implementation; the arguments by the supporters and opponents of the solution have also been quoted. Referring to the example of the dystopian science f-s novel by Janusz A. Zajdel, Limes Inferior, the Author points out the potential risks which the solution would entail.

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Planning Theory - A Critical Review of the Dominant Planning Models in 21st Century and Proposed Reconstruction

Author(s): Bojana Poledica / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2013

The entire work is based on the assumption that the root of the planning crisis at the global level is largely found in the inadequate development of planning theory. The purpose of this research is to find a theoretical basis that would allow better theory and practice linking within a more efficient planning system. By applying the method of analysis and synthesis, historical and descriptive method, the development of theoretical thinking about problems and issues in the planning is presented, then the current state of theory in view of the dominant models and their ''critical'' points. In this paper, namely, it is pointed out that because of these points, planning, as a mechanism of state intervention, still does not respond adequately to current and future challenges and demands of society. Accordingly, and with the realization of the basic objectives and applying the method of induction and deduction, planning theory reconstruction has been proposed, which is the main result of the work.

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Природни услови као ограничавајући фактор развоја пограничног простора Србије и Македоније

Author(s): Boban Milojković,Ivan Novković,Ivica Milevski,Slavoljub Dragićević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 4/2010

Natural conditions of certain area imply to the complex influence of various elements of the environment (surface, relief, climate, water, vegetation type) and man, and knowledge of their recent state represents basis of an integrated approach in the land use planning. Analysis of natural conditions and processes in the Serbian-Macedonian border area is usually done through the valorization of natural potentials, but aspect of their limiting influence on the development of this territory - natural hazards assessment has remained unresolved. Degree of natural hazards vulnerability of a certain territory is an important factor in land use planning, because it represents a threat to the undisturbed development of a certain territory. The basic idea of this paper is to provide multi-hazard assessment and the integral map of areas vulnerable to various types of natural hazards in Serbian-Macedonian border area. In this way seclusion of areas where natural conditions can represent the limiting factor for the development of the analyzed territory shall be performed.

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Седам модела планирања

Author(s): Tijana Dabović,Dejan Đorđević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 3/2009

The task of this paper is to give an overview of the most influential models of planning that have been developed during the second half of the 20th century. We will present each model of planning just as it is discussed in the technical literature of planning theory. In doing so, we will only trace the main lines along which the planning - theoretical discussion has developed, even though there obviously are many different approaches to planning over and above what we will discuss here, i.e. any list of planning forms and styles could be extended almost indefinitely. Any approach that lies beyond these main lines of development will not be considered beyond this point.

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Ризик од падинских процеса на територији општине Уб

Author(s): Marko Prica,Ivan Novković,Slavoljub Dragićević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 3/2009

Stereotype researches of natural conditions on the territory of Serbia have caused limited application value of the large number of recent development strategies and planning documents of different purpose. The best indicator of this is the Strategy of development of planning area of the municipality Ub where, apart from general analysis of natural potential, determining the areas endangered by different intensity of geomorphologic processes was neglected in many ways. At what extent the territory is at risk of slope processes represents an important factor in choosing the location and planning the purpose of the land use, and in defining the degree of concentration of physical structure and objects of infrastructure. This kind of analysis is unavoidable segment of strategy for spatial development of some territory. Therefore, apart from the analysis of natural conditions as the potential of development of some territory, the same attention should be paid to rightful assessment of degree of impairment of the territory, i.e. limitations for its development and growth.

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Forecasting randomly distributed zero-inflated time series

Author(s): Mariusz Doszyń / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2017

The main aim of the article is to propose a forecasting procedure that could be useful in the case of randomly distributed zero–inflated time series. Many economic time series are randomly distributed, so it is not possible to estimate any kind of statistical or econometric models such as, for example, count data regression models. This is why in the article a new forecasting procedure based on the stochastic simulation is proposed. Before it is used, the randomness of the times series should be considered. The hypothesis stating the randomness of the times series with regard to both sales sequences or sales levels is verified. Moreover, in the article the ex post forecast error that could be computed also for a zero-inflated time series is proposed. All of the above mentioned parts were invented by the author. In the empirical example, the described procedure was applied to forecast the sales of products in a company located in the vicinity of Szczecin (Poland), so real data were analysed. The accuracy of the forecast was verified as well.

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Dokąd zmierza cywilizacja zachodnia? Esej

Author(s): Marian Golka / Language(s): English,Polish Issue: 04/2017

The article aims to reflecting on the future of Western civilization, whose identity is determined primarily by two values: rationalism and the pursuit of social emancipation. The question is, whether the success of this civilization, and above all its 500 year-old world domination, will continue. It seems that long-term forecasts can be formulated only in a form of assumptions. One can only predict several potential scenarios: a successful continuation of this civilisation; its gradual aging; various probable forms of hybridization; a possible, but rather unexpected, disaster.

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Funkcje i dysfunkcje czyli redefinicje zadań współczesnego państwa w Europie

Author(s): Iwona Jakimowicz-Pisarska / Language(s): English,Polish Issue: 04/2017

The focus of the paper is to indicate a new division of the functions of the European state. The assumption is that mere self-attribution of certain functions by individual states does not determine the actual possibility of their realization in the contemporary world (...).

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Redevelopment and linkage of urban public markets: the case of Silchar town, India

Author(s): Meenakshi Sinha,Deepashree Choudhury / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

Public markets have had a socio-cultural significance in addition to serving the day-to-day shopping needs of the urban population. Most often their number and expanse increase whenever cities expand in terms of population or territory, but their growth rarely follows an organized pattern. This results in a lack of appropriate linkages between different public markets and erodes spatial qualities. The unplanned market expansion also leads to inadequate infrastructure and dents the image of the city. An appropriate public market hierarchy that responds to contextual needs and offers adequate infrastructure and amenities is necessary for every city’s sustenance. This paper discusses various aspects of urban public markets. Next, it suggests interventions for establishing an efficient linkage between major public markets located in Silchar, a town in the state of Assam in the Eastern part of India followed by a proposal for the redevelopment of the existing market area of Fatak Bazaar, Silchar. This paper uses both primary and secondary data for achieving the outlined aim and adopts a mixed methodology of data analysis. The design proposals recommended here will find wide-scale applicability in the case of towns with similar contextual realities.

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