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On 1 July, Hungary took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It will focus on the economic recovery after the pandemic. At the same time, its management of the group’s activities will serve to promote the country’s views in the discussion on the future of Europe.
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The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
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On 31 July to 2 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. During his stay, the U.S. announced support for Ukraine worth a total of $117.5 million. Contrary to Ukrainian hopes, the visit did not result in any breakthrough in the key areas for Ukraine of deeper cooperation with NATO or compensation for the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).
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On 15 September, the leaders of Australia, UK, and the U.S. announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The deepening cooperation in this area between Australia and the U.S. will strengthen the network of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific crucial for counteracting China’s growing military potential. However, by keeping the AUKUS negotiations secret from EU allies and forcing France out of its contract to provide non-nuclear submarines to Australia, tensions in transatlantic relations have flared again, which undermines the prospects of coherent U.S. and EU policy towards the Indo-Pacific.
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On 11 October, Alexander Schallenberg replaced Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria. The change was a consequence of the start of another investigation of Kurz for abuse of power. The new foreign minister, Michael Linhart, will continue the current foreign policy.
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The results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq indicate that the political scene will remain fragmented, which will hamper the formation of a new government. In addition, the record low turnout (41%) and the lack of significant changes on the political scene compared to before the 2019 mass protests will weaken the legitimacy of the next government. Although the political grouping that relies most on anti-Western rhetoric achieved its best results in modern elections, Iraq will strive to maintain a neutral position in the face of U.S.- Iran rivalry.
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The second special session of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) highest body, the World Health Assembly (WHA), was held on 29 November-1 December. It was attended by, among others, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, heads of government or ministers of health of most Member States, and EU representatives. It was decided to initiate and schedule negotiations on a new instrument to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Whether it will be created and effective, however, is not evident, not least because of the reluctance of some countries to limit their freedom to respond to public health threats.
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The third and final referendum on the independence of New Caledonia from France, held on 12 December, resulted in an overwhelming victory for its opponents (96.49%). It stemmed from a boycott of the vote by the supporters of independence. While the French authorities consider the referendum result binding and call for dialogue on the future status of New Caledonia, separatist leaders intend to use the successful boycott to question the legitimacy of the last vote.
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On 15 December, the 6th Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit took place in Brussels. The meeting did not lead to the adoption of a new EaP vision, but the EU acknowledged the trio format of the associated countries. The Union will develop the existing cooperation with its partners by increasing investments, including developing a green and digital economy.
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The European Commission (EC) presented a proposal on 22 December to create new sources of revenue for the EU. The main purpose is to pay for the recovery fund. In parallel, the Commission wants to speed up implementation of mechanisms that serve the green transition.
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On 5–12 January, the 8th Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea was held. Decisions adopted during this meeting suggest the intent to tighten state control over the economy. North Korea will also develop its nuclear and missile programmes, treating them as elements of pressure on the U.S. and South Korea. The confrontational nature of the North Korean leadership’s decisions increases the risk of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula and further reduces the prospects of talks with the U.S. on denuclearisation.
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On 19 April, Chad’s President Idriss Déby died from wounds sustained in a clash between antigovernment rebels and the troops he was visiting. The military took power and named the president’s 37-year-old son as the new leader. The state is threatened with destabilisation, which would reduce the ability of the Sahel G5 forces to act against jihadist militants in the region.
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On 23 May, the Belarusian authorities forced a passenger plane registered in Poland to land in Minsk. The plan was in Belarusian airspace, but flying from Athens to Vilnius. Among the passengers was Raman Pratasevich, the co-founder of the opposition news portal Nexta, who was arrested after landing. In Belarus, he is accused of conducting terrorist activities, for which he may face the death penalty.
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On 28 May, the Biden administration presented a full U.S. budget request for fiscal year 2022, asking Congress for $715 billion for the Department of Defense (a nominal increase of 1.6% over the 2021 funding levels, although it would amount to a slight decrease in real terms once inflation is taken into account). The proposal emphasises strengthening deterrence of China and quality over the size of the armed forces, along with the development of new types of military capabilities.
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The economic rebound in China after the lifting of the pandemic restrictions at the end of 2022 was short-lived and the situation has now been deteriorating for several months, including because of a decline in consumption and exports. The current economic woes are rooted in an intensification of existing problems, including excessive debt, particularly in the real estate sector. The deflation recorded in July this year is indicative of deepening structural problems, including the current, ineffective growth model based on investment and exports. While a deep crisis in China’s economy is unlikely, the accumulation of the challenges will translate into lower growth rates in the coming years.
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The advancement of the global energy transition is intensifying the competition for access to lithium. Consequently, the significance of Latin American producers of this raw material - especially Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, which have more than half of the world’s proven reserves - is rising, but they differ in their concepts and the pace of exploiting this potential. The EU considers lithium a strategic raw material and seeks stable supply chains for it. To this end, it is strengthening cooperation with Latin American countries, led by Chile, the largest exporter of lithium to the EU, and through other means.
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Achieving the goals of the European Green Deal (EGD) requires increasing renewables deployment. Meanwhile, as the share of unstable renewable energy sources increases, so does the problem of ensuring the flexibility of power grids. The key challenge for the European energy system is therefore to expand electricity grids, both national and interstate, and invest in the development of energy storage to ensure a balance of demand and supply.
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Justin Trudeau’s government seeks to increase Canada’s influence on security in the Indo-Pacific with the goal of decreasing any possible risks of a crisis erupting and threatening Canada’s economic interests. The country’s engagement in the region will strengthen its position as a key ally of the U.S. However, this will occur at the cost of attention and activity in Europe, which stands in contradiction to its NATO declarations.
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On 19 November, the European Commission (EC) adopted its “Strategy for offshore renewable energy. The document confirms the priority of climate neutrality and its subordination to subsequent sectors. The development of the offshore energy industry is to contribute not only to the protection of the climate, environment, and biodiversity but also as an impulse for the pandemic-hit economy.
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The pro-government coalition’s win in the elections to the National Assembly (AN) held on 6 December means Nicolás Maduro will resume full control of state institutions. The EU, the U.S., and other countries that recognise Juan Guaidó as interim president are questioning the legitimacy of the elections and will intensify Venezuela’s international isolation. In response, the Maduro government will be enhancing cooperation with Russia and China, among others. Consequently, the option to resolve the political conflict in Venezuela through negotiations between the government and opposition, as promoted by the EU, will drift away.
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