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Regulacje rynku finansowego w Polsce. Equilibrium vs. inwersja

Author(s): Danuta Dziawgo,Leszek Dziawgo / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2018

The subject of this study is the legal regulations concerning the banking and stock market sector. The research objective is to identify the issue of the adequacy of legal regulations on the modern financial market. The object of the research is the banking institutions and companies listed on the stock exchange. The following research methods were used, i.e. the analysis of the literature, analysis of legal acts, observations, descriptive, comparative and case study analysis. It was found that there has been an increase in the level of detail and restrictiveness of legal regulations in recent years, both in relation to the banking sector and to the stock market. In addition, the legislative revolution not only continues, but is also gaining momentum. Thus we could formulate a conclusion about the inversion of the modern financial market. The financial market was to facilitate business operations through access to capital. Currently, excessive regulations indicate the growing legal barriers to entering the financial market and conducting business activity in it.

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Drogie i tanie fundusze – opłaty w polskich funduszach akcji w 2017 roku

Author(s): Alicja Fraś / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2018

Mutual fund fees are extraordinarily high in Poland – almost three times higher than in Western Europe and almost five times higher than in the United States. In fact is that from among 183 Polish open-ended stock mutual funds as many as 81 impose a management fee of 4%, which is the highest value in the sample. The question arises whether it is really worth to invest in funds from the more expensive group. Comparing funds charging the highest fees (4%) with the cheaper ones it seems that there is no statistically significant difference between rate of return, risk and efficiency. However, more expensive funds have on average higher costs, are three years older and have almost 70% bigger assets. This may suggest that a well-established market position – not performance – is the trigger for raising their fees. Interestingly, funds with a relatively high minimal initial contribution level (5,000 PLN) have significantly lower management fees with similar costs, total assets value and performance results. Further analysis has also indicated that the costs level (Total Expense Ratio) is higher for older funds, while it is not related to funds’ size.

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Measuring Performance of the Serbian Banking Sector Using Camels Model

Author(s): Violeta Todorović,Srđan Furtula,Danijela Durkalić / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

Realization of the undeniable role of banks in the functioning of the economic system assumes their successful business, based on the achievement of key financial performance. Interrelatedness and interdependence of bank performance indicators, their dynamic relationship, and interaction, on the one hand, as well as differences and contradictions, on the other hand, require precise monitoring and harmonization by banks, in order to achieve adequate business results and minimize negative financial developments. In this sense, it is very important to choose appropriate ways to measure and manage bank performance. A key role in this process belongs to a banking rating system, measured by CAMELS model. Therefore, the paper attempts a comprehensive analysis of bank performance measurement, using CAMELS model. The aim is to examine the possibility of applying this model to effectively measure the performance of the banking sector in the Republic of Serbia.

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A new method of measuring stock market manipulation through structural equation modeling (SEM)

Author(s): Maruf Rahman Maxim,Abu Sadat Muhammad Ashif / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

This paper proposes a new model of measuring a latent variable, stock market manipulation. The model bears close resemblance with the literature on economic well-being. It interprets the manipulation of a stock as a latent variable, in the form of a multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) model. This approach exploits systematic relations between various indicators of manipulation and between manipulation and multiple causes, which allows it to identify the determinants of manipulation and an index of manipulation simultaneously. The main reason of stock market manipulation comes from the fact that information availability is not universally equal. The manipulation is thus critically linked to the creation, arrival and dissemination of information or rumors/mis-information. Thus, the immediate impact of manipulation is on the time profile of returns, or excess returns, from an asset and the excess volatility of returns in excess of the volatility explained by the fundamentals. In this basic setup, the model used these two variables as the indicators of stock market manipulation. The main intuition of the MIMIC approach is that some variables, or statistics, related to peace are indicators of manipulation, while others signify effects or outputs of causal factors, or inputs, of manipulation. In other words, distinction can be made between causes of manipulation and indicators of manipulation. The causal factors used in this model are classified into five different domains namely pure economic factors as determinants of manipulation, labor market conditions, international factors, quality of governance factors and systematic risk factors.

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Detecting false financial statements: evidence from Greece in the period of economic crisis

Author(s): Michail Pazarskis,George Drogalas,Kyriaki Baltzi / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

The purpose of this study is the examination of the financial fraud in Greek companies, listed on the Athens Exchange for the period of 2008-2015 during the economic crisis in Greece. The data of all the listed companies that were used comprise financial statements, reviews in the reports by the auditors and the figures and information based on the reports of the Athens Exchange. A total of twelve companies were found and they comprise the primary research sample with fraud in their financial statements (FFS), while another twelve companies were employed as a control sample (non-FFS) for various comparisons. From thirty financial ratios, several statistical tests to the sample and the control sample are applied in order to create a model that will use ratios as “predictors” in the analysis of financial statements for fraud. The model is accurate in classifying the total sample correctly with accuracy rates exceeding 90 percent. The results demonstrate that the model functions effectively in detecting FFS in a period of economic crisis and could be used as a tool to the banking system, from internal and external auditors and taxation or other state authorities.

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The evaluation of derivatives of double barrier options of the Bessel processes by methods of spectral analysis

Author(s): Ivan Burtnyak,Anna Malytska / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

The paper deals with the spectral methods to calculate the value of the double barrier option generated by the Bessel diffusion process. This technique enables us to calculate the option price in the form of a Fourier-Bessel series with the corresponding ratio. The autors propose a simple method to estimate options using the Green’s expansion function for boundary value problem for a singular parabolic equation. Thus, the accuracy of the estimation coincides with the accuracy of the convergence of the Fourier-Bessel series. In this paper, the authors use the spectral theory to calculate the price of derivatives of financial assets considering that the processes described are by Markov and can be considered in Hilbert spaces. In this work, the authors use the diffusion process to find derivatives prices by introducing them through the Bessel functions of first kind. They also examine the Sturm-Liouville problem where the boundary conditions utilize the Bessel functions and their derivatives. All assumptions lead to analytical formulae that are consistent with the empirical evidence and, when implemented in practice, reflect adequately the passage of processes on stock markets. The authors also focus on the financial flows generated by Bessel diffusion processes which are presented in the system of Bessel functions of the first order under the condition that the linear combination of the flow and its spatial derivative are taken into account. Such a presentation enables us to calculate the market value of a share portfolio, provides the measurement of internal volatility in the market at any given time, and allows us to investigate the dynamics of the stock market. The splitting of Green’s function in the system of Bessel functions is presented by an analytical formula which is convenient for calculating the price level of options.

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Semi-monthly effect in stock returns: new evidence from Bombay Stock Exchange

Author(s): B. Shakila,Prakash Pinto,Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

Semi-monthly effect is a kind of calendar anomalies which is less explored in the financial literature. The main objective of this paper to investigate the presence of semi-monthly effect in selected sectoral indices of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The study uses the daily stock returns of five sectoral indices viz S&P BSE Auto Index, S&P BSE Bankex, S&P BSE Consumer Durables Index, S&P BSE FMCG Index and S&P BSE Health Care Index for the period of 10 years starting from 1st April 2007 to 31st March 2017. The data were analyzed using two approaches namely calendar days approach and trading days approach. To test the equality of mean returns for the two halves of the month, Mann-Whitney U test is used. The empirical results of the study did not provide any evidence for the presence of semi-monthly effect in the selected sectoral indices. Nevertheless, BSE Auto Index showed significant difference in the mean returns of first half and second half of trading month during the study period.

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The adjustment speeds of short-run real estate investment trust (REIT) and corresponding stock returns in the USA and Australia

Author(s): Hao Fang,Yen-Hsien Lee,Jen-Sin Lee,Wei-Jui Chen / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

This study first uses the non-linear co-integration with structural breaks by Gregory and Hansen (1996) to examine whether non-linear co-integration exists between real estate investment trusts (REITs) and corresponding stock markets in the United States and Australia. Second, we employ the smooth transition vector-error correction model (STVECM) including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to separately explore the adjustment efficiencies of non-linear short-run REIT and corresponding stock return dynamics, as well as respective REIT return dynamics when the long-run disequilibrium occurs. The results show that a structural break co-integration exists between the equity and mortgage REITs and stock markets in the US, between the REITs and stock markets in the Australia and between the REIT markets in both the US and Australia. When there are large positive and negative deviations of STVECM, the adjustment speed of reverting to equilibrium of the S&P 500 index is greater than that of the Mortgage REIT index. However, when there are large positive (negative) deviations of STVECM, the adjustment speed of reverting to equilibrium of the Australian REIT (stock) index is greater, and that of the Australian REIT (US REIT) index is greater. In addition, by using a non-linear Granger causality test by Hiemstra and Jones (1994), we find that credit price effects exist between the US for each type of REIT and stock markets regardless of large positive or negative deviations (or returns) in STVECM (or STVAR). However, there is a feedback effect exists between the REITs and the stock markets in Australia.

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The prestige of stock exchanges and corporate cash holding in transition economies: a study on Vietnamese listed firms

Author(s): Do Thi Thanh Nhan,Ngo Minh Vu,Pham Ha,Drahomíra Pavelková / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

The main purpose is to examine the relationship between corporate cash holding level and the prestige of the stock exchanges. And the other determinants in the listing requirements impact on cash holding level will be indicated. The paper uses a sample of 577 listed firms excluding the financial institutions on the Vietnamese stock exchange over the period 2007–2015. The results show that the listed firms on the stock exchange with higher prestige hold larger amount of cash reserve and vice versa. The study shows that there is a statistically significant connection between cash holding and the listing requirements such as profitability, dividend and information disclosure. The findings have implications on the cash management of listed firms in the stock exchanges with dissimilar prestige.

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Market reaction and fundamental signal in Indonesia

Author(s): Winston Pontoh / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

The random reaction in capital market by different perceptions and other factors makes it difficult for investors to get their optimum return. The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evidence about how the market will react by fundamental signal from the perspective of life cycle theory, free cash flow theory, and bird in the hand theory. The study presents the analysis of covariate for hypotheses testing with 241 firms as the sample which are listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for period 2010–2015. This study finds that the life cycle theory and free cash flow theory are not absolute theories to explain the market reaction for any firms, because each firm has its own characteristics. The findings show that share prices shall react differently depending on each characteristics of the firm. The bird in the hand theory seems applicable in any case of firms, since the informational contents by dividend can deliver good signal to investors in capital market. Excluding the smaller and younger firms, this study proves that dividend is still a better way in determining the reaction of share prices, since each type of firms has its own types of dividend payers with different share prices.

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Foreign ownership and firm-level stock return volatility in Taiwan

Author(s): Yi-Chein Chiang,Ming-Han Chan / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

With the increasing presence of foreign investors and their importance in the stock markets, the authors investigate the effects of foreign ownership on stock return volatility by using Taiwanese firm-level data covering a period from 1994 to 2014. The results demonstrate that foreign ownership is negatively correlated with stock return volatility during the whole sample period, the so-called stabilizing effect. For the sub-sample test, this effect is the largest during the period 2002–2007, the years following Taiwan joins WTO. However, the stabilizing effect did not exist after the global financial crisis in 2008 and recent years. The results are also robust after correcting the potential endogeneity issue.

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The role of high-yield bonds in strategic asset allocation over the Great Recession

Author(s): Georgios Menounos,Constantinos Alexiou,Sofoklis Vogiazas / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

By utilizing a modified version of the Black-Litterman model, the authors explore the asset allocation to high-yield bonds based on an investor’s risk profile. In so doing, the researchers use US data on high-yield bonds and over the period 2007–2013. The key finding relates to the strategic asset allocation to high-yield bonds in a simulated global market portfolio depending on an investor’s risk tolerance. In particular, the share of high-yield bonds does not exceed 4.15% of total assets in a global market portfolio over the period 2007–2013, whilst the allocation remains relatively stable and small on a risk-adjusted basis, irrespective of an investor’s risk profile or the phase of the business cycle. In simple terms, the results suggest that high-yield bonds do not seem to merit a favorable treatment in the asset allocation process relative to other financial instruments in a global market portfolio.

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Evaluating the performance of the Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor™

Author(s): Greg Filbeck,Alexander Lyon,Xin Zhao / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

Since March 2002, The Motley Fool’s founders, David Gardner and Tom Gardner, have published monthly stock recommendations under Motley Fool’s premium Stock Advisor service. In this paper, the authors investigate whether analysts’ recommendations can add value for investors by examining the performance of portfolios constructed based on Motley Fool’s recommendations. They evaluate the announcement effect on share price corresponding to the publication of stock recommendations. Additionally, the researchers examine holding period returns for a portfolio imitating the actions of Stock Advisor. They find portfolios composed of recommendations through Stock Advisor added value initially upon recommendation and across extended holding periods. Additionally, the authors find that the Stock Advisor sample outperforms other sample portfolios on a risk-adjusted basis and over several subperiods. The findings contribute to the literature on the usefulness of analysts’ recommendations in adding value to investors’ portfolios.

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The mediating role of growth opportunity in good corporate governance-stock return relationship

Author(s): Rakha Wardhana,Bambang Tjahjadi,Yani Permatasari / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

Improving the welfare of its owner or shareholder and maximize shareholder value through increased firm’s value should be one of the goals in establishing a company. Consequently, it becomes essential for the company to continue to increase its value in order to retain the trust of its shareholders, for instance by conducting good corporate governance (GCG). On the other hand, from the owner’s point of view, it is important to not only evaluate the corporate governance, but also to take a look at firm’s growth opportunity, because it basically reflects the management’s productivity. Studies related to the influence of corporate governance on stock return have been extensively done before. Similarly, this research is related to the influence of growth opportunity on stock return. However, it is still difficult to find studies that combine these three variables, therefore this study aims to know the influence of good corporate governance on stock return directly and indirectly through firm’s growth opportunity by using sample data of 92 observation Corporate Governance Perception index lists in Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2010–2014. The analysis method of this research is the quantitative approach by hypothesis testing through path analysis performed with SmartPLS 3.0. The direct hypothesis result showed that: (1) good corporate governance did not have a significant influence on firm’s growth opportunity while; (2) it also had a negative influence and did not have a significant influence on stock return, and (3) firm’s growth opportunity had a significant influence on stocks return. However, the indirect hypothesis result showed that firm’s growth opportunity could not mediate the relationship between good corporate governance and stock return.

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Do coherent risk measures identify assets risk profiles similarly? Evidence from international futures markets

Author(s): Sharif Mozumder,M. Humayun Kabir,Michael Dempsey / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

The authors consider Lévy processes with conditional distributions belonging to a generalized hyperbolic family and compare and contrast full density-based Lévy-expected shortfall (ES) risk measures and Lévy-spectral risk measures (SRM) with those of a traditional tail-based unconditional extreme value (EV) approach. Using the futures data of leading markets the authors find that ES and SRM often differ in recognizing the risk profiles of different assets. While EV (extreme value) is often found to be more consistent than Lévy models, Lévy measures often perform better than EV measures when compared with empirical values. This becomes increasingly apparent as investors become more risk averse.

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Does Employee Stock Ownership Plan matter? An empirical note

Author(s): Fitri Ismiyanti,Putu Anom Mahadwartha / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) is a company program to provide incentives to managers to increase shareholder wealth and to align interests between the shareholders and the management. This ESOP is one of the most effective efforts to reduce conflicts of interest between the owners and the managers. ESOP program is basically intended to provide motivation and incentives for employees, so that employees will have a sense of concern (sense of belonging) to the company. Productivity is a reflection of the level of efficiency and effectiveness of work in total in a company. Productivity becomes very important, because it can describe the performance of a company. Performance is defined as the size or level at which individuals and organizations can achieve goals effectively and efficiently. This study aims to examine the effect of ESOP variables on company performance by using productivity as a mediating variable in non-financial companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample used in this research is companies that implement ESOP in the period 2000–2015. In this study, the company’s performance is measured by using return on assets, return on equity and Tobin’s Q, while productivity is measured by using sales per employee, cash flow per employee, and total assets turnover. Based on the results, it can be concluded that Employee Stock Ownership Program (ESOP) has a positive and significant impact on productivity.

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Why do financial services companies pay dividend? Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange

Author(s): Sumathi Kumaraswamy,Bora Aktan,Zainab Hafedh Al Halwachi / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

This study identifies the dividend policy determinants of banks and other financial institutions listed on Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) for a period from 2009 to 2015 through studying the impact on eight factors on banks’ dividends per share. Three models were adopted to investigate the determinants of the dividend policy and the factors that affect a bank’s decision to pay out dividends. The findings indicate that the previous year’s dividends per share, earnings per share, cash flow per share, firm size and return on average equity are positively related to the current year’s dividends per share, as hypothesized. The study shows that the leverage position, bank’s life cycle and growth opportunities are negatively related to the dividend payment. The study also reveals that banks and financial institutions in Qatar do a bit of “earnings smoothing” when comparing the earnings figures with the cash flow.

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Investor compensation fund: an optimal size for countries with developed stock markets and Ukraine

Author(s): Inna Shkolnyk,Evgeniya Bondarenko,Myroslav Ostapenko / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

A compensation fund is an effective mechanism for ensuring the protection of individual investors’ investments on the stock market, which confirms the experience of different countries both with the developed stock market and with the emerging markets (USA, UK, France, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland, Malta).The formation of a steady interest of individual investors in stock market instruments is stimulated by the implementation of a mechanism for guaranteeing such investments. The stock market of Ukraine faces the problem of attracting additional financing, while individual investors have fairly large amounts of monetary resources that are not involved in the transactions with financial instruments due to the high level of distrust caused by the crisis phenomena on both the global and the national financial markets. The creation of the Ukrainian compensation fund for investment protection involves the development and implementation of a nationwide system for protecting the property interests of investors on the stock market, which requires compensatory payments to the clients of all professional market participants as a result of certain risks.The main condition for effective functioning of the compensation fund of the stock market is determined by its size, which must meet the following conditions of optimality: to ensure the minimum level of the fund’s risks, to take into account the amounts of contributions for the current period, the amount of maintenance costs and to fulfil the requirements for the financial stability of the fund. A modified Markowitz portfolio model was used to build the model.The building of the target function and constraints was carried out by using the Statistica software toolkit. The target function and constraints were presented as polynomials of the third degree and calculated with the help of the multiple nonlinear regression. As a result of calculations, an optimization model was developed for determining the size of the compensation fund taking into account these conditions.The model’s testing was carried out by using the examples of the Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) and compensation funds of the United States, Great Britain, France, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland and Malta. As a result of calculations we determined the size of the compensation fund, which guarantees a minimum level of the fund’s risk taking into account the amount of contributions for the current period, the amount of maintenance costs and requirements to the financial stability of the fund.

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Depozyty osób fizycznych oraz system ich gwarantowania w rosyjskim systemie bankowym

Author(s): Dawid Banaś / Language(s): Polish Issue: 30/2018

Oszczędności niewątpliwie pełnią ważną funkcję w gospodarce. Zapewniają one depozytariuszom poczucie bezpieczeństwa finansowego, wpływają na akcję kredytową prowadzoną przez banki, a także na poziom inwestycji. Duży wpływ na decyzję o ulokowaniu środków ma zaufanie, jakim darzona jest dana instytucja finansowa. To właśnie gwarancja zwrotu powierzonych środków jest jednym z czynników wpływających na decyzje o sposobie oszczędzania. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest charakterystyka i ocena zmian w zakresie kształtowania się poziomu i struktury depozytów oraz systemu ich gwarantowania w Rosji, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem rozwiązań prawnych. W publikacji wykorzystano m.in. dane Agencji Ubezpieczenia Depozytów (Агентство по страхованию вкладов), a także opracowania Federalnej Służby Statystyki (Федеральная служба государственной статистики – Росстат). Analizie poddano rozwiązania prawne, jakie zostały wprowadzone przez rosyjski rząd celem ochrony depozytów obywateli, a także strukturę depozytów w latach 2000–2017. Zdecydowano się na badanie wkładów w okresie przed utworzeniem systemu ochrony, aby można było potwierdzić, że działanie to miało pozytywny wpływ na poziom oszczędności lokowanych w instytucjach finansowych objętych tym systemem. Savings undoubtedly play an important role in the economy. They provide the safety for depositaries, influence the credit action conducted by banks and the level of investment. The trust placed in a given financial institution also has a large impact on the decision to invest in funds. It is the guarantee of returning entrusted funds that is one of the factors influencing the decision on how to save. The purpose of this study is to characterise and assess development trends in the field of deposits and their guarantee system in Russia, with particular emphasis on legal solutions. The publication uses, among others, data of the Deposit Insurance Agency (rus. Агентство по страхованию вкладов), as well as the study of the Federal Statistics Service (rus. Федеральная служба государственной статистики (Росстат)). The analysis included legal solutions that were introduced by the Russian government to protect citizens' deposits, as well as the structure of deposits in the years 2000-2017. It was decided to examine the contributions in the period before the creation of the protection system, so that it could be confirmed that this measure had a positive impact on the level of savings placed in the financial institutions covered by the scheme.

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The Effects of Volatility Spillover on the Largest Global Financial Market Segments

Author(s): Irena Janković / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2018

The aim of the paper is to present and analyse indicators of financial connectedness and volatility spillover on important segments of the global financial market – the stock market, bond market, CDS market, and foreign exchange market. Total, net, and directional measures of volatility spillover are presented and analysed, indicating the level of connectedness of countries’ particular market segments and the level of volatility spillover in periods of crisis and stability.

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