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PIERDERILE UMANE ȘI INFLUENȚA LOR ÎN CONTINUAREA RĂZBOIUL RUSO - UCRAINIAN

Author(s): Viorel Ordeanu,Benone Andronic / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 74/2024

The human losses of the belligerents in the Russo-Ukrainian war, even if not equal in quantity and quality, are usually comparable and even necessary to compare in order to study the tactics and strategy used, as well as the possibility of each of them to continue fighting. The human costs of war have a significant influence on the achievement of victory. If there is still no comprehensive estimate of the losses of Ukrainian forces, the reason is that they are kept secret by Ukrainian officials and almost nothing is published about their own losses. Through indirect analysis, OSINT and medical intelligence we try to present a situation as close to reality as possible. It is important for military planners to know the real situation, both for the design and conduct of operations and for the organisation and staffing of the medical service supporting combat actions.

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Russian Disinformation and Propaganda Campaign Justifying the Annexing of Crimea in 2014

Author(s): Oksana Voytyuk / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

On February 26, 2014, the Russian Federation annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Russia’s unlawful actions have been condemned in the international arena, but this has in no way changed the decision of the authorities in the Kremlin. In order to prove the legitimacy of the occupation of Crimea, the Russian Federation launched a disinformation and propaganda campaign aimed primarily at the internal arena, i.e. at the Russians. The aim of the article is to analyze selected statements by Vladimir Putin regarding the annexation of Crimea and to try to answer the question of whether disinformation and internal propaganda were effective in convincing Russians that the occupation of Crimea was an act of restoring historical justice. For the purposes of the article, research methods appropriate for international relations were used.

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Forced Migration from Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian War: impact on the EU and Ukraine

Author(s): Alla Atamanenko,Mariia Avhustiuk / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2023

The full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which was accompanied by the violation of humanitarian law and the demolition of civilian infrastructure, has led to the emergence of forced migration. Millions of people left the country within a short period. On March 4, the EU Temporary Protection Directive was reactivated in response to the unprecedented flow of migrants from Ukraine. EU countries have opened their borders to migrants from Ukraine, providing them with shelter and assistance. Poland and its neighbouring states, such as Romania, Moldova, Hungary, as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Austria, received the highest quantity of migrants. The wave of migration has had a noticeable influence on the functioning of labour markets and employment, even in those regions of Ukraine which have not been exposed to military activity. Comprehensive studies show that external migration, among other factors, will significantly affect the demographic situation in Ukraine due to the increase in the number of people who do not plan to return from abroad. A key factor in the crisis is the fact that the majority of these people is youth of employable age and children. Besides, educational migration from Ukraine to EU countries has also increased significantly. The influx of immigrants who have established themselves in the nations of the European Union have significantly impacted the labour markets of these countries, putting a considerable strain on the public funds of the host countries. The question of Ukrainian immigrants’ ability to engage in activities such as schooling (including access to educational opportunities for children), employment, residence, and healthcare in both the immediate and long-term future is coming to the fore. Ukrainian and international scholars alike have done numerous studies on external migration from Ukraine; nonetheless, the forced migration resulting from the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has yet to be adequately examined. Subsequently, the article is intended to examine the displacement circumstances in Ukraine and the EU and to evaluate the consequence of compulsory external migration in Ukraine and the EU.

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Ukrainians in Poland on behalf of refugees – a case study of the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship

Author(s): Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk,Olha Ivasechko,Yaryna Turchyn / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2023

The aim of the article is to present the activity of three branches of the Association of Ukrainians in Poland, covering the entire Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The study also outlines the Association’s activities supporting refugees. The main research hypothesis is that the Association of Ukrainians in Poland is actively engaged in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion, members of the Association became extremely proactive both in helping refugees from Ukraine, as well as Ukrainians who stayed in Ukraine, including those from the territory of military operations. The core research problems focuses on the following questions: What efforts did the Association of Ukrainians in Poland undertake to maintain its history, traditions, language and culture? Which activities have been supported by local government authorities, including the Voivodeship ones? How has the Association changed its activity following the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022? Previous studies conducted by the authors demonstrate that economic migrants from Ukraine in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship did not perceive themselves as a part of the Ukrainian minority living in the region. Meanwhile, the relationship between the Association and the refugees is different.

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Rola cyberprzestrzeni w wojnie Rosji z Ukrainą

Author(s): Agnieszka Warchoł / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2023

The aim of article is to present the ways in which cyberspace has been used in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The article consists of several parts. The first deals with Ukraine’s preparations for potential Russian cyber attacks. In the second part, the author presents information on the use of cyberspace in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The last part presents possible scenarios for the use of cyberspace in wars in the future. The study used the following research methods: historical method, comparative analysis, literature analysis and criticism, source analysis and criticism, and case study.

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Twarz solidarności i pojednania? Niewerbalna komunikacja emocji w wojennych przemówieniach Wołodymyra Zełenskiego do polskich odbiorców

Author(s): Patryk Wawrzyński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2023

President V. Zelensky’s international popularity and sympathy resulted from his empathetic image as the nation’s speaker after the Russian aggression in February 2022. The novel application of technology helped him communicate with foreign audiences and receive international military, political, economic, and humanitarian support, strengthening the anti-Russian alliance. Poland was an essential partner in Zelensky’s strategy as Poles hosted millions of Ukrainian war refugees, marking the Polish society as a core target group of his communication. The paper presents the results of automated coding (FaceReader 9, general model, 30 fps) of the Ukrainian President’s facial expressions of emotions in three speeches addressed to the Polish audience after February 2022, comparing them with the results of a study on Zelensky’s 73 international addresses in the first year of the war. The study investigates differences in nonverbal targeting of Poles and other audiences, providing detailed profiles of analyzed speeches. The results suggest that the stage of the conflict primarily regulated his nonverbal communication, and then it was adapted to the targeted audience. (1) Zelensky increased emotional expressiveness in communication with the Poles, signaling all three dominant emotions (sadness, anger, and disgust). (2) The intensity of disgust had a reverse pattern than in the general sample, and it was reduced with time and replaced by more arousing anger. (3) The Ukrainian President significantly stronger displayed fear in his speeches to the Polish audience. The differences in nonverbal dynamics explain a reduced involvement of Polish society in helping Ukraine, as Zelensky’s initial empathetic image was replaced with a more aggressive style of wartime leadership.

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Періодизація московсько-української війни ХХІ ст. і ймовірні сценарії її розвитку й завершення

Author(s): Sergey Khovrych / Language(s): Ukrainian Issue: 2/2023

The study aims to characterize the essence and content of the ongoing Moscow-Ukrainian war since 2014, providing the author’s options for scientific periodization and forecasts for its conclusion. The research methodology adopts a systematic approach, relying on the method of peri- odization in historical analysis. General scientific methods, such as historical and logical approaches, along with specific scientific historical methods like comparative-historical and retrospective analyses, are employed. The method of theoretical modeling is extensively used to describe potential scenarios for the war’s end.The study emphasizes that any periodization should meet specific criteria, like the global context. Historical parallels are drawn to enhance the understanding of the problem, and various options for the periodization of the Moscow- Ukrainian war proposed by other scholars are critically analyzed. The term “ATO” (Anti-Terrorist Operation) is subject to a critical analysis, assessing its impact on historical thought about the conflict.The author presents several options for the periodization of the war, categorized as “detailed” and “optimal.” The study also formulates and systematizes various scenarios for ending the war and explores its potential consequences in the context of future international relations. The research assesses the influence of the “strange” military mutiny in June 2023 on the socio-political situation in Muscovy (historical name for the Russian Federation). This assessment allows the author to formulate probable scenarios for the war’s conclusion.

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The Post-pandemic Consumer: Evidence from Empirical Research of Four Generations of Consumers

Author(s): Grzegorz Maciejewski / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2023

Objective: The article analyses the changes in Polish consumer behaviour during the pandemic caused by the SARS CoV-2 virus. Changes in behaviour identified in 2022 were also analysed through the crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Research Design & Methods: Literature studies and original empirical research were conducted. The empirical research – an online survey using the Ariadna National Research Panel – was carried out in two waves, the first in November 2020 on a sample of N = 1,045 consumers and the second in November 2022 on a sample of N = 1,100 consumers. The online survey technique made it possible to reach adult consumers from all regions of Poland. Findings: The research findings confirmed that consumer behaviour changed during the pandemic. Above all, consumers did more things remotely. They also took better care of their health and hygiene, and used payment cards more often than they had. Going out to cultural institutions and using the services of catering establishments were subject to the most radical restrictions. Respondents were mainly unsure of whether the two crises increased their household spending. Implications / Recommendations: Compared to 2020, in 2022 the percentage of consumers undertaking various types of preventive and prudent behaviours due to the pandemic decreased. This may indicate a desire among consumers to return to the lifestyle and behaviours they led before the pandemic. Consumers seem to be slowly forgetting about the pandemic, absorbed by another real threat: the war in Ukraine.

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The meaning of symbols in drawings in the context of the military conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): EWELINA J. KONIECZNA / Language(s): English Issue: 11/2023

Research objective: To recognize the symbolism of drawings of the Ukrainian children who experienced the situation of war and necessity of emigrating from their mother country and to compare them with the content of drawings made by Polish children at the same time, that it is in the first months following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine;The research problem and methods: What symbols can be identified in the drawings made by children of both nationalities and what their meaning is in the context of the war in Ukraine? The study applied the method of drawing and interview;The process of argumentation: Reconstruction of the symbolic meanings of drawings in the cultural context in the conditions of the military conflict in Ukraine;Research results: It was possible to identify symbols of idiosyncratic character in the drawings of the Ukrainian children, that are connected with the outbreak of the war in this country (e.g., destroyed houses, missiles, rockets). In the drawings of the children of both nationalities, it was also possible to recognize symbols of neutral meaning, which – however – in the case of the Ukrainian children’s drawings made reference to the situation of war (e.g. an umbrella as protection against missiles). Interpretation of the drawings was carried out according to one schema, taking into account separate cultural contexts (Polish and Ukrainian), as well as the child’s individual experience, which was demonstrated using a drawing by a 12-year-old Ukrainian girl; Conclusions, innovations, and recommendations: A drawing can offer an alternative method of learning about and making an attempt to understand a child, especially one who has found himself/herself in a difficult situation in life.

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Forensic Examination as a Mediation Tool: Genesis and Prospects for Development in the Context of Martial Law and Post-War Revival of Ukraine

Author(s): Vladyslav FEDORENKO,Volodymyr Kravchuk,Anton Demchuk,Tetyana Fedorenko / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2023

The study explores justice, forensic examination and mediation from the time of their genesis to the present day. The article analyzes historical examples of the application of forensic examination within the mediation process from the Ancient East and Antiquity to the 20th century, as well as the processes of establishing the legitimization of forensic examination (from the end of the 19th century) and mediation (from the end of the 20th century) in Ukraine and abroad. Attention is paid to the prototypes of forensic examination in the times of Kievan Rus, the Principality of Galicia-Volhynia, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Cossack State and the entry of Ukrainian lands into the Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires, as well as the emergence of forensic examination before the First World War and during the Ukrainian Revolution and the expansion of the Bolsheviks and the establishment of Soviet power. The formation of regional offices (1923) and later institutes of scientific and forensic expertise (1925) in Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv is studied. The article reveals the peculiarities of the development of forensic examination within the establishment and legitimization of the mediation procedure in independent Ukraine. The provisions of the current legislation on forensic examination and mediation are analyzed. The authors substantiate the prospects of using the results of forensic expert activity for the application of mediation procedures in the settlement of disputes through negotiations between the parties using the conclusions of forensic experts. The authors identify the most promising types of forensic expertise for the mediation procedure (economic, commodity, construction, intellectual property, etc.). The authors determine the prospects for mediators to use expert opinions not only in family, labor, civil, commercial and administrative disputes, but also in criminal cases during martial law and post-war revival of Ukraine.

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Rola Republiki Turcji w procesie mediacji między Ukrainą a Rosją

Author(s): MAGDALENA KUMELSKA-KONIECKO / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2023

Since the armed attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Republic of Türkiye has been to mediate between the conflicting parties as a part of extensive diplomatic activities, the primary goal of which is to induce the parties to a ceasefire, work out peace terms, and, finally, end the war. Although Ankara’s mediation has not yet led to the expected breakthrough, it has managed to reach an agreement on grain exports and exchange prisoners of war. The paper aims to analyse the role of Türkiye as a mediator in Russia’s war against Ukraine, indicating the conditions of Türkiye ‘s involvement in the mediation, and verify the effects of Turkish diplomacy in the short and long-term. Regarding the defined objectives, the following research assumptions were adopted. First, in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine, Türkiye adopted the ‘strategic autonomy’, which allowed it to maintain its credibility in mediations between the parties and to take care of vital interests in the area of security and economy. Second, Türkiye’s involvement in the mediation has contributed to the country’s increased importance and prestige in the international arena, which is an important element of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman strategy that has been implemented for two decades. Third, Ankara’s diplomatic offensive contributed to the warming of Turkish-American relations, which have been in deep crisis since 2016. The following research instruments were used in the preparation of the text: analysis, synthesis, and inference.

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POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

Author(s): Dariusz Prokopowicz / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

The article describes key aspects of the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine since February 24, 2022 on the Polish economy with a particular focus on the energy crisis caused by this war. When in 2021 the economies of many countries began to recover from the covid recession of the 2020 economy, the prices of various categories of industrial and energy raw materials also began to rise. Then immediately after when Soviet troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, fossil fuel prices additionally began to rise rapidly on energy commodity exchanges. Increases in fuel and energy prices became further factors in the rise of food prices, which ultimately also accelerated inflation. As a result, as early as mid-2022, forecasts appeared suggesting that there would be a serious energy crisis during the autumn-winter 2022/2023 heating season. The aforementioned energy cri- sis was particularly deep in Poland. It has been caused by years of blocking and restricting the development of renewable and zero-carbon energy sources, as well as large-scale government fi- nancial state aid given to the financially deficient, unprofitable coal and lignite mining sector and the dirty coal-burning power generation sector. The result is still a situation where more than 3⁄4 of electricity and heat in Poland is generated from dirty coal-burning energy. In this area, too, mis- guided, anti-climate, anti-environment, anti-social economic state interventionism has been carried out for many years, ignoring the need for a green transformation of the economy and the realization of sustainable development goals.

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War in Ukraine and Enduring Relevance of the Clausewitzian Theory

Author(s): Damian Winczewski / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

The article discusses selected theoretical and practical problems of the ongoing Russian Ukrainian war since 2014 from the perspective of Carl von Clausewitz’s political theory of war. It argues, first, that defining the first phase of the conflict as “hybrid war” on theoretical grounds is an unnecessary exercise that obscures the methodologically important difference between war and peace. Second, despite technological innovations, the concepts of “fog of war” and “friction” remain relevant. Third, the current phase of the conflict shows that the spontaneous and grassroots involvement of citizens in the war was a transitional phenomenon that became subordinated to central command structures. It also shows that from the perspective of Clausewitz’s theory, Russia’s strategic failure in the first part of the second phase of the conflict is completely understandable.

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Russian disinformation and propaganda before and after the invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Oleksii Polegkyi / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

Disinformation and propaganda are key aspects of Russia’s war strategy as it uses the information environment to justify its actions in international politics, both domestically and abroad, and to coerce audiences into unwittingly supporting its actions. Russia, leading up to and throughout the conflict with Ukraine, brought the full scope of its propaganda apparatus to bear, leveraging overt and covert capabilities on both media and disinformation tools to justify the invasion and [attempt to] destroy international support for Ukraine. What kind of instruments, methods, and narratives has Russia used before and after its invasion of Ukraine? The spread of disinformation by the Russian Federation prior to and after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as well as the actions taken in response by Ukraine, allied governments, and civil and international organizations provide an important perspective as well as lessons on how to counteract disinformation and propagandistic narratives.

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Failure, crisis, or renewal? The Eastern policy of the European Union and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Olga Barburska / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

This paper’s objective is to study the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Eastern policy of the European Union. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to highlight this policy’s position in the overall international activity of the EU, as well as its characteristic features, main goals, instruments, and two components: the strategic partnership with Russia and the Eastern Partnership (EaP). The substantive part of the paper contains an analysis which, taking into account the implications of the war in Ukraine, is intended to justify three research hypotheses. They concern: the complete failure of the strategic partnership with Russia, then the serious crisis of the EaP and, finally, the possibility of achieving success in the Eastern policy in the form of Ukraine’s accession to the EU. As indicated in the conclusion, this would provide the European Union with a permanently strong position in Eastern Europe.

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Turkey’s mediatory endeavours: Facilitating dialogue in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Author(s): Jakub Wódka / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

The article explores Turkey’s ambitions to assume a proactive role as a mediator in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Positioned as a middle power striving to enhance its global standing, Turkey has dedicated itself to striking a delicate balance between Russia and Ukraine in its foreign policy. This is exemplified by Ankara’s engagement in an ambiguous cooperative rivalry with Russia while strengthening its partnership with Ukraine, including military cooperation in the Black Sea Region. Given these circumstances, Turkey sees itself as naturally inclined to act as a facilitator in brokering a ceasefire and bringing about peace between the two conflicting parties. Some successes have already been achieved, with the grain initiative being a primary example thereof.

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Information policy tools as instruments of Ukraine’s information security after Russia’s full-scale invasion

Author(s): Robert Rajczyk / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

The paper presents the methods and means of conducting information policy by the Ukrainian authorities after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion on 24 February 2022. The analysis is presented in institutional and functional terms using the method of functional analysis, which demonstrated that the information policy of Ukraine during the period of martial law is effective and provides the state (with) information security in terms of military aggression.

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Inwazja Rosji na Ukrainę w polskich dziennikach opinii Rzeczpospolita i Gazeta Wyborcza

Author(s): Rafał Leśniczak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4 (256)/2023

The aim of the article was to reconstruct the image of the initial stage of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the time immediately preceding it, in the Polish opinion dailies Gazeta Wyborcza and Rzeczpospolita. It was verified which of the interpretive frame, as defined by Holli Semetko and Patti Valkenburg, was the dominant one, which tópoi (natural vs. cultural) dominated in the research sample and how the number and exposure of press texts were changing, alongside the intensity of press coverage regarding the Russia’s war in Ukraine. The content analysis method, the framing analysis concept, the priming concept and the locus communis concept were used in the research. The frame of conflict and the frame of human affairs were the dominant frames in Polish opinion dailies. Rzeczpospolita also noted a high degree of saturation of publications with the economic consequences frame. Cultural tópoi prevailed over natural ones. The most numerously represented natural tópoi were: the right to freedom and security, human dignity, the right to life, while the cultural tópoi were: the politics of superpowers, the economic consequences of war, migration and refugees. The greatest interest of Polish dailies in Russia’s war in Ukraine took place just after February 24, 2022, whilst the “freshness effect” decreased only slightly with the passage of time. The article increases the cognitive value in the area of research on the image of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the Polish opinion press.

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Wojna w Ukrainie w wymiarze historycznym i politycznym

Author(s): Ivan Parubchak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3 - 1/2024

When starting operations in Ukraine, the Russian Federation set itself specific strategic goals. To determine the degree to which these goals have been achieved, they should be correlated with the course of Russian activities to date. The first phase of the Russian military operation ended in failure, and the implementation of the set strategic goals should be considered very difficult or even impossible. The initial answer may be that the war was planned and started by the Kremlin and its security services, not professional military officials. This is where the Russians ignored certain basic principles of the art of war and the concept of new generation war itself. The Russians have not designated a commander-in-chief in the Ukrainian theater of war.

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Zmiany w poczuciu bezpieczeństwa Ukraińców podczas wojny w latach 2014 – 2023

Author(s): Bogusław Pacek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3 - 1/2024

Today’s world, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, shows that conflicts, both armed and low-intensity, are directed not only at killing and conquering territory, but also at destabilising state functions and exacerbating social disputes. The aim is to weaken the morale of enemy populations and to lower their sense of security. Combat and everyday traumatic situations negatively affect soldiers and civilians, their attitudes or behaviour. This article attempts to present the changes in the feeling of security of Ukrainians in the years 2014 – 2023 during the war with the Russian Federation. The author presents the views of renowned experts and research on the phenomenon. He identifies the factors influencing the lowering or strengthening of the sense of security during the ongoing conflict. He emphasises that the sense of security translates into the will not only to fight and win, but also to survive and thrive.

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