#05 Bulgaria’s Capital Markets in the Context of EU Accession: A Status Report

Author(s): Stefan Petranov,Jeffrey Miller / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 1999

The objective of this report is to contribute to the discussion on the capital market reform in Bulgaria in preparation for eventual integration into the European Union. The report views the accession issue on two levels. The first one is whether the necessary capital market institutions and legislation are in place, while the second one is whether capital markets function in a manner that supports economic growth and development. The impetus for the development of the capital markets in Bulgaria was the first wave of the mass privatization program. This program was similar to the program implemented earlier in the Czech Republic. At the same time the Czech Republic is among the first countries in transition that has been invited to negotiate accession with the European Union. For these reasons it is useful to compare the process of capital market developments in both countries. However, it should be taken into consideration that because of the problems that have surfaced recently in the Czech capital markets, the Czech example does not necessarily furnish solutions to the problems that are likely to arise. A large number of the companies are listed on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange-Sofia, but in practice the majority of the smaller ones have not been traded at all. While the unadjusted market capitalization figure amounts to roughly 0 million, this includes all investment funds, holding companies and all shares in partially privatized state owned companies. The actual figure for shares not held by the Government and available for trading on the BSE-Sofia is probably closer to 5 million. This works out to 1 per participant in the mass privatization program, which is a little above one-month’s salary. The market also has very low levels of turnover. Turnover figures at the individual company level are available only for trades on the BSE-Sofia. Most company shares have been traded very few times since the stock market opened. Only eight companies have traded shares in more than half of the sessions for which they were registered.

#25 The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria and the Global Economic Crisis

Author(s): Andrey Nonchev,Denitsa Mantcheva,Evgenia Vassileva,Ruslan Stefanov,Todor Yalamov / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

This publication provides an overview of the hidden economy dynamics in Bulgaria. The authors make an analysis of the effects of the crisis on the labor market and undeclared work based on the results from the Hidden Economy Monitoring System. After examining the European and the Bulgarian experience of the last five years, they make recommendations to the improvement of the public policies for reducing the hidden economy. The authors also justify the necessity of combining administrative control, socio-economic measures and structural reforms in the control administrations and the law enforcement agencies.

(026) BEYOND MAASTRICHT: A NEW DEAL FOR THE EUROZONE

Author(s): Thomas Klau,François Godement,José Ignacio Torreblanca / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union has been an extraordinary achievement. But the events of 2010 have made it apparent that its political governance was designed for fair weather. Having reluctantly taken the first steps this year, European leaders must now make it storm-proof. The move to an agreement to establish a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to replace the EFSF in 2013 represents a fundamental and encouraging change in the approach of European leaders to the future of the eurozone. But the new model of eurozone governance currently envisaged by the EU, which is based once more on the Maastricht Treaty, will be vulnerable to failure for the same reasons as its predecessors. If Europe wants to remain a serious player and help shape the twenty-first century, it should instead go beyond Maastricht and finally build a monetary and economic system strong enough to last. There are at least three other solutions – Eurobonds, a euro-TARP and an expansion of the federal budget. Yet each of them is opposed above all by Germany, the eurozone’s dominant power, which feels its robust growth vindicates its own economic model even though its political model for a rule- and sanctions-based governance of the eurozone looks to have failed. Europe now faces a choice between a future of permanent tensions within the EU and a new grand bargain. Europe needs clearheaded, forward-looking German leadership that would anchor a European Germany in a more German Europe.

(045) SAVING THE EURO: WHAT’S CHINA’S PRICE?

Author(s): François Godement / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Although Europe needs external lending and the show of confidence it brings, its attempt to persuade China and other emerging economies to enlarge the resources of the EFSF is likely to bring only limited results. However, there are various other scenarios under which China and other investors may lend to Europe. The best case scenario from Europe’s point of view is that it would increase the lending capacity of the EFSF or the ECB and turn them into a super borrower and lender. But this scenario is unlikely to become a reality because it requires a “big bang”-like reinvention of European public finance for which there is no commitment. More likely is that the ECB will underwrite a new IMF fund dedicated to the support or rescue of European member states. This would mean a larger Chinese contribution in IMF decisionmaking. Alternatively, China could seek to lend to Europe in renminbi, thus transferring the exchange risk to the European borrower. Such a deal would also offer China an unprecedented guaran-tee against any depreciation of the euro. Finally, the euro could collapse altogether and the IMF could be called in – the worst case scenario. In any case, Europe should acknowledge the interdependence between it and China and therefore its need for external capital.

(Нео)протекционизам и светска економска криза

Author(s): Branislav M. Pelević,Vladimir M. Ristanović / Language(s): Serbian / Issue: 4/2011

The collapse of international trade is aftermath of global economic crisis in 2008. Decline in trade was even higher compared with the period of the Great Depression and, moreover, international trade has recorded a much greater decline than the world’s gross domestic product. Previous causality has been confirmed in Serbia and global crisis hit the economy of Serbia with the lag of one quarter. Initial fall in output and trade was smaller in the world than in Serbia. Growingprotectionism is not among the main causes of the collapse of the trade, but it is its essential companion. Protectionism, however, can provide positive effects only in short term. It leads to a decrease in exports, employment and income in other countries, but will invariably have feedback - leading to the fall for products imported from countries that increased protection. Opening the market undoubtedly contributes to more efficient and dynamic growth.

10 lat członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej. Skutki włączenia do jednolitego rynku europejskiego

Author(s): Małgorzata Czermińska / Language(s): Polish / Issue: 1/2014

The inclusion of Poland to the common market for goods meant the abolition of customs duties and quantitative restrictions on agricultural products in mutual trade with the countries of the European Union (customs duties on industrial goods have already been abolished by the Europe Agreement) and the application of the Common Customs Tariff on imports from third countries. Freedom of movement of goods after the accession to the EU accounted for Polish entrepreneurs a chance, because the fulfillment of EU norms and standards means full access to the common market, amounting to more than 500 million inhabitants. Particularly noticeable was the impact of accession on foreign trade, which, thanks to the membership not only gained easier access to the common market, but also new opportunities to increase trade with third countries. Since Polish accession to the EU gradually increased trade in agricultural products as well as their participation in the Polish foreign trade. Emigration of Poles also increased significantly, especially to countries that with effect from 1 May 2004 opened their labor markets, namely the United Kingdom, Ireland. In the final evaluation of the benefits of joining the common market and free movement of goods, persons, services and capital far outweigh, in both the scale of the economy and at the micro level, the costs associated with membership in the European common market.

10 Years of EU Membership: Diverging Performances in New Member States Agriculture

Author(s): Attila Jambor,Miklós SOMAI,Sándor Kovács / Language(s): English / Issue: 05/2016

More than 10 years have passed since the 2004 accession round to the European Union. The tenth anniversary provides a good opportunity for stocktaking and assessing the agricultural developments of the New Member States (NMS) in light of the latest data available. The aim of this paper is to assess agricultural performances of NMS and to identify the winners and losers of accession in this regard. By ranking individual country performances using Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC), our results suggest that Poland and the Baltic countries can be treated as the winners of EU accession in agriculture, while Romania and Bulgaria proved to have used their potentials to the least. Results also suggest that focusing on high value added agri-food products proved to be a good strategy to reach development in the agriculture sector, while those countries concentrating on the production of agri-food raw materials turned out to be lagged behind.

100 sesji komitetu prawnego międzynarodowej organizacji morskiej – podsumowanie prac

Author(s): Dorota Lost-Siemińska / Language(s): Polish / Issue: XXXII/2014

The article presents the history of the activities of the Legal Committee (LEG) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The Author tries to assess the LEG’s work input in the context of legislation created within the IMO and points to changes in the activities of the Legal Committee, which refer to the promotion of the effective implementation of IMO conventions.

1989: Szempontok a rendszerváltás globális politikai gazdaságtanához

Author(s): Márk Áron Éber,Ágnes Gagyi,Tamás Gerőcs,Csaba Jelinek,András Pinkasz / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 21/2014

This article rethinks 1989 – the year commonly treated as a milestone of regime change. As contrary to this narrow view, and with the aim of laying out the conceptual foundations of possible future research projects, we give a short overview of the way Hungary became incorporated into the capitalist world system and of the key global, economic, and geopolitical factors that influenced its dependent development. For this we present a historically sensitive, global political economic narrative within which we pay special attention to the way public debt had been accumulated and how this, in turn, shaped Hungary’s position within the world system. After our analysis of the regime change we continue with an overview of the main structural dynamics of the last two decades. Finally, through two short case studies, we show how our perspective can throw new light on the political ideologies and economic policies of the era. The accumulation of state debt was not a Hungarian specificity: instead, we argue that it was rather a result of the global restructuring process and of its concomitant effect of decreasing national state-sovereignty. In the following manner, we also argue that the emergence of debates (which were central in evaluating the regime change, revolving around issues like „democracy” vs. „dictatorship” or „planning” vs. „market”) can be better understood within our global, historical, and political economic analytical framework. In the long run we identify two economic development strategies – namely, the strategy of liberalization and the strategy of protectionism – both structured around the, nonetheless entirely unfulfilled, hope of overcoming Hungary’s semi-peripheral position by „catching up” to its Western neighbors. These strategies then can be analyzed on the base of how they relate to global cycles of accumulation; how their shifts were influenced by changes in the world system; and, in turn, how these strategies organized both various elite projects shaped by global cyclical dynamics and the interpretations about our historically unfolding dependent position.

2008 Krizinin Bulaşma Etkisi: Bir Finansal Kriz Göstergesi Olarak Hisse Senedi Fiyat Endeksi Üzerine Bir Analiz

Author(s): Ceren Kocabaş / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: Special/2016

Contagion can be expressed as the spillover of any shock across countries, and a change in market sensibility. In this study, in addition to the expression of the notion of contagion within the literature, there will be an analysis of the 2008 crisis using monthly data of the variable of stock price indices from January 2004 to December 2013 using the MA(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M method. According to the results obtained, it was observed that there was an increase in stock price volatility in the crisis period, and it was determined that most countries in different parts of the world were affected by the crisis which arose in the American mortgage market, and that the contagion occurred because of the financial channel.

2008 küresel krizinin turizm istatistikleri üzerindeki etkisinin çok değişkenli istatistiksel teknikler ve topsis metodu ile analizi

Author(s): Selay Giray,Özlem Yorulmaz,Özlem Ergüt / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 2/2016

The purpose of this study is to evaluate tourism performance rankings of 145 countries considering three main criteria (tourism revenue, tourism expenditure and number of tourist arrivals) and the effects of 2008 global economic crisis. In this study, classification and rankings of countries and the place of Turkey in the rankings have been investigated using factor analysis, cluster analysis and TOPSIS method for the years between2006-2012. Furthermore, the analysis has been deepened for Turkey, the effects of crisis on Turkish tourism companies have been examined using their financial ratios. Findings reveal that country classifications and rankings are compatible for period before economic crisis and period after economic crisis. The results of both Factor Analysis and TOPSIS indicate that France, China, United States and Spain are belong to ranking of first 10 countries. The classification of Turkey remains the same before and after the crisis, however after the economic crisis, the ranking of Turkey has been moved up according to Factor Analysis and TOPSIS. The volatilities of financial ratios of Turkish tourism companies have been decreased after the period of economic crisis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate tourism performance rankings of 145 countries considering three main criteria (tourism revenue, tourism expenditure and number of tourist arrivals) and the effects of 2008 global economic crisis. In this study, classification and rankings of countries and the place of Turkey in the rankings have been investigated using factor analysis, cluster analysis and TOPSIS method for the years between2006-2012. Furthermore, the analysis has been deepened for Turkey, the effects of crisis on Turkish tourism companies have been examined using their financial ratios. Findings reveal that country classifications and rankings are compatible for period before economic crisis and period after economic crisis. The results of both Factor Analysis and TOPSIS indicate that France, China, United States and Spain are belong to ranking of first 10 countries. The classification of Turkey remains the same before and after the crisis, however after the economic crisis, the ranking of Turkey has been moved up according to Factor Analysis and TOPSIS. The volatilities of financial ratios of Turkish tourism companies have been decreased after the period of economic crisis.

2013-2015 Yılları Katılım Ve Geleneksel Bankacılık Karşılaştırması: Türkiye Örneği

Author(s): Selçuk Bakan / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 36/2017

The fact that the interest, which is a must in the banking sector, is forbidden in the Islamic religion directs individuals to interest-free banking in Muslim societies. This case leads to an increased interest in the Islamic finance and Islamic banking in the world economy. In Turkey, the participation banking sector, which is the manifestation of interest-free banking, has demonstrated a rapid growth in recent years. This study provides information about Islamic finance, Islamic banking and participation banking, analyses some financial titles about the participation banking sector in Turkey between 2013 and 2015, compares and contrasts between general banking and participation banking, and analyses the state of participation banking sector. Findings show that while there was a decline in the participation banking sector in 2015 compared to 2013, there was a development in the traditional banking data in the same years. It is believed that the transfer of Bank Asya, one of the participation banks, from the Bank to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the subsequent process has an important effect in this decline. If necessary measures are taken for the participation banking sector and if the negative issues are not repeated, it can be said that this sector which is developing all over the world can continue its development in Turkey as well.

2018: Doing well, but no plan B

Author(s): Martin Vlachynský / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The year 2018 started with a dip and ended with a dip. While the first encouraged investors to buy, the second sowed fear. With fiscal difficulties in France and Italy, Brexit plans going round in circles and a headstrong president in the US, recession became a popular topic of discussion in late 2018. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s economic policy suggested there was little to worry about in the future.

21. YÜZYIL ENERJİ SAVAŞLARINDA TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİ’NİN YERİ ve ÖNEMİ

Author(s): Çağrı Kürşat Yüce / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 17/2013

Energy consumption and the need to continue on a global scale, as in the past and in recent years. Oil and natural gas will continue to be the primary energy source until 2030 despite all the alternatives to meet this need. As a result of this situation, energy resources will continue to be one of the most important determinants of the twenty-first century. In addition, at least a half century, dominance of oil in the field of energy will continue to. Energy experts frequently reported that the “cheap oil” era has ended and price volatility in the oil market will continue to today.The Caucasus and Turkestan (Central Asia) regions including the Turkish Republics maintained its importance throughout history due to various reasons. Today, however, due to the rich energy resources, especially oil and natural gas, they took part in the world’s agenda. In this study, the important actors of the energy wars and reserve status of the energy resources of the Turkish Republics in the Caucasus and Turkestan regions were briefly described. In addition, as well as importance of energy resources for the region and the world’s nations, beginning in the late twentieth century and growing competition over energy resources of the Caspian Sea were discussed today.

36th Osijek - Pforzheim Symposium Review

Author(s): Ana Pap / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2015

A ‘last-minute’ transit contract? Russia-Ukraine-EU gas talks

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

On 21 January another round of trilateral gas talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union was held in Brussels. This meeting mainly concerned the new Russian-Ukrainian transit contract; the transit contract currently in force between Gazprom and Naftogaz will expire as of 1 January 2020. During the meeting, European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič submitted proposals to the parties concerning the parameters of a new contract transit, but did not make them public. The meeting was the latest in this series of trilateral gas talks; the previous round was held in Berlin in July 2018. In Brussels Russia declared its willingness to conclude a new transit agreement, although it highlighted the need for the legal dispute between Naftogaz and Gazprom to be resolved before that could happen. The lack of success during the talks so far, the divergent interests of the various parties and the current political context suggests that a new contract transit will probably only be concluded by the late autumn or winter of this year, and possibly in the period immediately before the expiry date of the current contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom. It is also conceivable that the negotiations will be extended into 2020, and that meanwhile transit will take place on the basis of principles agreed in the short term, along the lines of the so-called winter packages in 2014 and 2015, something which would be very disadvantageous for Ukraine and the EU, but extremely convenient for Moscow. There is no reason to expect rapid progress in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations; they are proceeding in complicated conditions, including the ongoing political conflict between Kiev and Moscow, the numerous legal disputes between Naftogaz and Gazprom, the construction of new Russian export pipelines, the continuing fundamental reform of the Ukrainian gas sector, and finally a packed political calendar (for both Ukraine and the EU) in 2019. The negotiation process is also difficult because of the contradiction between the long-term interests of Ukraine, which wants to maintain its status as a key transit route for Russian gas in the long term, and Russia, whose strategic goal is to become independent of the Ukrainian transmission network.

A 360 Degree Overview on Governance

Author(s): Marcela Mitriță,Amelia Diaconu,Alexandru Bodislav / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2017

This paper represents a scientific overview of the idea of governance and its influence in the global economy, in social policy and in the way the political framework is developed by using the concept and its nearby equivalents. During this paper we will try to emphasize how governance emerged and how it improved during time and also how it accentuated some differences when it comes to implementing some of its key features.

A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

Author(s): Daniel Francois Meyer,Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2019

In terms of macro-economic policy, gross fixed capital formation, which is the major component of domestic investment, is seen as an important process that could accelerate economic growth. This study re-examines the controversial issue of causality between domestic investment, employment and economic growth using South African data. The traditional assumption of causality running from investment to economic growth has remained inconclusive while empirical findings on the investment and employment growth nexus are also largely unsettled. The study makes use of quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2016Q4 within the framework of the Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). The empirical findings suggest that a long run relationship exists between domestic investment, employment and economic growth, with causality running from economic growth to investment and not vice versa. The results also demonstrate that investment has a positive long-run impact on employment. The empirical evidence further suggests bi-directional causality between employment and economic growth, while evidence of uni-directional causality, from investment to employment, is also found. The major implication of the study is that although there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and employment, economic growth does not translate to increased employment in the long run confirming “jobless growth”. Investment is found to be a positive driver of employment in the South African economy in the long-run. The study concludes that, in order to stimulate employment, investment enhancing policies, such as low interest rates and a favourable economic environment should be put in place to accelerate growth. Measures to promote economic growth, such as improved infrastructural facilities and diversification of the economy, should be further engineered so as to encourage increased investment.

A centrum hitele: A magyar állam külső eladósodásának történetéről (Mong A.: Kádár hitele; Mihályi P.: A magyar gazdaság útja az adósságválságba)

Author(s): Márk Áron Éber / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 21/2014

A Co-Integration Analysis of Interest Rate Spread and Corporate Bond Market Development in Selected African Economies

Author(s): Patrick Omoruyi EKE,Kehinde Adekunle Adetiloye,Esther Oluwafunmilayo ADEGBITE,Lawrence Uchenna OKOYE / Language(s): English / Issue: 52/2017

This paper examines the relationship between interest rate spread and corporate bond market development in thirteen African economies comprising of Botswana, Egypt Mauritius Nigeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, Cote d’Ivorie, Ghana Namibia, Tanzania from 2004 and 2014 using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) in an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework. Subsisting literature suggests that in bank-based economies, interest rate spread could adversely affect the potency of corporate bond market development; and thus limits the financial market competitiveness. The result provides evidence that corporate bond issue, as a proxy for financial development is negatively influenced by interest rate gap in the short and long term. The result affirms the ‘group interest' theorem in these African economies leading to a deterrent in competitive financial development. The ECM coefficient satisfies a priori expectation, affirms the short run dynamic relationship, which implies long run equilibrium from the annual speed of adjustment, which is about 100 percent. The paper suggests policy recommendations for the reduction in interest rate, and thus the spread to encourage the growth of corporate bond issues for a market-led financial development.