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East Meets West - Reorienting the EU’s Central Asia Strategy

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Johannes Linn,Natalia Mirimanova / Language(s): English

The European Union approved its first Central Asia strategy document in June 2007 for the period 2007-2013. From the EU’s perspective, the Central Asia Strategy (CAS) rounded out the strategic approach towards its Eastern neighbours, which includes its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), its Eastern Partnership (EaP) and its bilateral relationship with Russia enshrined in the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which is currently subject to negotiation for a successor agreement. The CAS represents significant progress in focusing explicit attention on Central Asia as a region of significance for Europe, and in spelling out the key objectives and instrumentalities.

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From Central Asia into EurAsia

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Iqbol Qoraboyev,Maxim Ryabkov,Marlène Laruelle,Alisher Ilkhamov / Language(s): English

Having recently spent some time in all five states of Central Asia on the EUCAM project monitoring the EU’s strategy there I am persuaded that the regional dimension to this strategy needs reconsideration. The EU wishes to foster enlightened regional cooperation among the five states and allocates 30% of its budget to regional projects. The EU comes to the region with a presumption that regional cooperation leading maybe even to regional integration is a good idea. But has the regional dimension to the EU Central Asia strategy been well conceived for the 21st century when the map of Eurasia is being radically redrawn, after the 20th century when Central Asia was a region integrated into the Soviet Union, sealed off from the rest of the world?

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Śmierdząca sprawa. Ekologia, protesty i duże pieniądze na biznesie śmieciowym w Rosji

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

W ostatnich miesiącach obwód moskiewski stał się ośrodkiem protestów społecznych przeciwko problemom środowiskowym, powodowanym przez składowiska odpadów komunalnych. Składowiska są przeciążone, nieodpowiednio zabezpieczone, emitują trujące gazy i odcieki do wód gruntowych. Problem jest najmocniej odczuwany w obwodzie moskiewskim (stolica generuje najwięcej odpadów), a poza wymiarem stricte ekologicznym dotyka sfer ekonomicznej i społecznej. Kluczowymi problemami, charakterystycznymi dla gospodarowania odpadami w Rosji, są przeciążenie legalnych wysypisk oraz tworzenie składowisk dzikich, nieodpowiednia utylizacja odpadów narażająca mieszkańców okolicznych miejscowości na skażenie powietrza i wód gruntowych, a także rabunkowa gospodarka prowadzona przez podmioty powiązane z prezydentem Władimirem Putinem, które zmonopolizowały sferę transportu odpadów. Pogłębiające się problemy ekologiczne, a zwłaszcza kłopoty zdrowotne mieszkańców powodowane przez wyziewy z wysypisk, stały się katalizatorem społecznego niezadowolenia. Mieszkańcy wielu podmoskiewskich miejscowości od kilku miesięcy protestują, a w niektórych wypadkach sięgają również po postulaty polityczne. Jednak analiza przebiegu (i wygasania) dotychczasowych protestów nie pozwala oczekiwać, iż doprowadzą one do systemowych zmian w funkcjonowaniu wysypisk czy do długofalowych efektów społecznych – powstania struktur kontroli obywatelskiej i zmiany relacji państwo–obywatel. „Protesty śmieciowe” wydają się dobrze ilustrować ogólną dynamikę protestów społecznych w Rosji. Mają one charakter spontaniczny i lokalny, koncentrują się na konkretnym problemie i wygasają po jego choćby cząstkowym rozwiązaniu, zmęczeniu protestujących lub presji ze strony władz. Ponadto protestujący rzadko postrzegają trapiący ich problem jako element szerszego systemu, sankcjonowanego z samej góry. Horyzontem ich oczekiwań jest dotarcie z petycją do prezydenta – „dobrego cara” – i punktowe rozwiązanie problemu, bez wprowadzania zmian systemowych. Pozwala to Kremlowi na zachowanie statusu wyłącznego decydenta i daje mu rozległe możliwości gaszenia protestów poprzez niewielkie ustępstwa, manipulacje uczestnikami wystąpień i zastraszanie lub przekupywanie ich liderów.

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№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

Author(s): Lidia Puka,Ole Gunnar Austvik,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Globally, many countries have become victims of the resource curse paradox and/or Dutch Disease after discovering and exploring hydrocarbon resources. The Norwegian experience, however, suggests that the impact of petroleum activities on the overall economy may increase over time, and not as a curse, but as a blessing. Due to good resource management, cost savings, and investment, Norway remains a model of sustainable development among resource rich countries, and, so far, a case for retaining strong government participation, control and supervision within the market regulations of the European Union. Although it is impossible to transpose the Norwegian model directly, EU countries that wish to develop an extractive sector, as Poland does, could learn from it, not least in elements such as private-public cooperation in a transparent institutional framework and strengthening of government competence, engagement, and control.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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Car-sharing: A Step towards Electromobility

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Car-sharing, more and more popular in Poland, is becoming an innovative element of public transport in cities. However, to make the expansion of car-sharing (rentals by the minute) an important step towards the development of electromobility in Poland and an effective way to improve air quality, cities should focus on electric car-sharing. Local government support for this initiative would be a promotional opportunity for Polish cities in international forums as leaders in low-emission transport and focused on innovative solutions.

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Car-sharing – krok w stronę elektromobilności

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Car-sharing (wynajem aut na minuty), zyskujący coraz większą popularność w Polsce, staje się innowacyjnym elementem transportu miejskiego. Miasta powinny jednak stawiać na car- -sharing elektryczny, co może stanowić ważny krok w rozwoju elektromobilności w Polsce oraz skuteczny sposób na poprawę jakości powietrza. Wsparcie samorządów dla tego środka komunikacji miejskiej to także okazja do promocji polskich miast na forum międzynarodowym jako liderów w transporcie niskoemisyjnym, sięgających po nowoczesne rozwiązania.

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China’s Environmental Disaster: Social Problem and Business Opportunity

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s economic development model has led to significant environmental contamination. The scale of the damage endangers the life and health of China’s inhabitants. The authorities are aware that their lack of action in the past has undermined their credibility and harmed China’s image worldwide. In 2015, the Chinese government declared a “war on pollution” and signed up for commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Simultaneously, China aims to develop the green sector of its economy. Actions it’s taken so far include a reduction in smog in 2017, but a lasting improvement in the country’s environmental condition is slowed by the huge costs of it and the resistance of local authorities. China can be expected to be moderately engaged in the implementation of the Paris agreement.

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Katastrofa ekologiczna w Chinach: problem społeczny i szansa gospodarcza

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Model rozwoju gospodarczego ChRL doprowadził do skażenia środowiska naturalnego. Szkody na taką skalę zagrażają życiu i zdrowiu Chińczyków. Władze zdały sobie sprawę, że brak reakcji podważa ich wiarygodność w kraju i szkodzi zewnętrznemu wizerunkowi Chin. Dlatego w 2015 r. ogłosiły politykę „walki ze smogiem” oraz przystąpiły do porozumienia paryskiego. Jednocześnie celem Chin jest rozwój „zielonego” sektora gospodarki. Podjęte działania zmniejszyły smog w 2017 r., ale przeszkodą do trwałej poprawy stanu środowiska są ogromne koszty, a także opór władz lokalnych. Chiny będą też umiarkowanie angażować się we wdrażanie porozumienia paryskiego.

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Politika sankcija ruskom energetskom sektoru

Author(s): Richard Sakwa / Language(s): Serbian

Šestog marta 2014. EU i SAD su postigle sporazum o postupnom uvođenju sankcija. U prvom redu, obustavljeni su planovi za bližu ekonomsku saradnju EU i Rusije, uključujući i razgovore o nastavku Sporazuma o partnerstvu i saradnji koji je istekao 2008, kao i pripreme za samit G8 planiran za jun u Sočiju. Nakon Krimskog referenduma 16. marta i prisajedinjenja ove oblasti Rusiji, sprovedena je u delo pretnja o ciljanom kažnjavnju pojedinih Rusa i Ukrajinaca. Amerika je nametnula zamrzavanje imovine i zabrane putovanja za 11 lica, a EU je sankcionisala 21 osobu. Ubrzo je EU dodala još 12 lica, dok su SAD takođe proširile spisak i dodale Bank Rosiju.

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Pitanje cene ukrajinske krize

Author(s): Dimitrije Boarov / Language(s): Serbian

Uoči Uskrsa iz Ženeve je stigla vest da je između Rusije i Zapada, napokon, postignut načelni sporazum o pravcu rešavanja Ukrajinske krize mirnim putem. Možda od tog sporazuma neće biti nikakve vajde, jer on „preskače“ neke bitne stvari, ali njegov sadržaj ipak upućuje na zaključak da su obe strane sklone da odustanu od maksimalnih zahteva.

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The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The European Union survived last winter in a surprisingly effective way. Despite the ongoing gas crisis and Russia’s energy war with the West, there were neither painful shortages of gas or the need to ration it. This was the result of an exceptionally favourable set of circumstances: a warmer winter than usual in Europe and lower gas demand in China, and on the other hand, the actions taken by individual member states and the EU as a whole, as well as changes on the market.2022 saw a revolutionary reshuffle in the directions and routes of gas supplies to the EU. Pipeline supplies from Russia, which used to be the largest source, fell by 56% year-on-year, while LNG supplies from the global market rose by 67%. Liquefied natural gas has become the most important source, and the EU has become the world’s fastest growing market for LNG, despite its long-term goals of achieving climate neutrality and reducing gas consumption. Unexpectedly, and contrary to the earlier assumptions of the European energy and climate policy, the construction of new gas infrastructure, including floating import terminals, has been stepped up. At the same time the EU’s demand for gas fell by a record 60 bcm (or over 13%) last year.

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Can the global battle for electromobility pose a threat to Central Europe?

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) adopted in 2022 marks a profound change in the US’s approach to its economic competition with China. This will have global consequences, and will also come to affect Central Europe. Since this document was adopted, Washington has used subsidies to restrict access to the American market as a fully-fledged tool of its industrial policy. This is aimed at blocking the expansion of the Chinese automotive industry in the US and pushing it out of Western companies’ supply chains. As a result, Beijing will most likely utilise its resources to dominate the European market, capitalising on the advantages it already has. The discussion about the European response to the IRA, as well as the growing dependence of German companies on Chinese technologies in the field of electric vehicle production, suggest that Germany and Central Europe are drifting apart as regards the automotive industry, even though they used to have similar interests in this area. German vehicle manufacturers are opposed to imposing restrictions on vehicles made in China on the European market, as they fear retaliation and losing competitiveness. From the Central European perspective, the increasing presence of Chinese electric vehicles (manufactured by both European and Chinese companies) in the EU poses a threat to a key pillar of economic growth. The region has experienced unfair competition from Beijing for years, but it has managed to gain a foothold as a car production hub; its position may be undermined as a result of China’s expansion in the field of electromobility.

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Russian economy in 2022. Adaptation and a growing budget gap

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Russia’s macroeconomic performance in 2022 confounded forecasts from one year ago, a few weeks after the invasion of Ukraine. However, in wartime conditions, indicators such as GDP do not accurately reflect the real state of the economy, due to the rapidly increasing military expenditure, the scale of the ongoing changes and major differences between individual sectors. Furthermore, the credibility of the published macroeconomic data is declining and the government has been restricting access to statistical data.

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‘Europe’s engine’ seizing up. French-German relations during the polycrisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the differences in interests between Paris and Berlin, and caused tension to accumulate in their bilateral relations. The significance of this tension goes beyond the purely bilateral dimension: policy alignment between the EU’s two most important members has always played a key role in the integration mechanism in Europe. However, the current disputes will not necessarily bring an end to this coordination. They are deeply embedded in the patterns of the traditionally divergent approaches which Germany and France have to economic, security, and integration issues, which is why they have not come as any surprise to the ruling elites in these states. Nevertheless, both countries will benefit from overcoming them in the long-term. Efforts to define Franco--German cooperation in an enlarged and more diverse EU will pose an even greater challenge to Paris and Berlin. Flexible coalitions between states and other cooperation formats which arise ad hoc will likely compete with these two leaders.

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Dangerous liaisons. A quick and coordinate withdrawal from Russian gas is proving hard for the EU

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The REPowerEU proposals announced on 18 May confirm the EU’s desire to end its dependence on Russian energy. Nonetheless, it illustrates the problems associated with the process of withdrawing from Russian gas, and above all with the rapid reduction of importing it. The heavy dependence which some EU countries have on Russian gas, the persistence of very high prices and the prospect of crisis and potential shortages in the coming winter make it difficult for the EU to agree internally on a significant, coordinated reduction in supplies this year. As a result, on the one hand, intra-EU discussions about sanctions on Russian gas are very difficult and increasingly rare, while on the other hand, some restraint in the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU ambitions regarding the level and pace of reductions in Russian imports is becoming apparent. This weakness of the EU is being exploited by Moscow. Russian counter-sanctions, including the ‘roubles-for-gas’ demand, not only lead to divisions within the EU but also reverse the previous logic of the discussion. The majority of states and companies active on the EU market, instead of thinking about ways to limit imports of Russian gas as quickly as possible, began thinking about ways to guarantee their supplies under new conditions. Therefore, the role of the European Commission in working out common principles for EU gas relations with Russia is diminishing, in favour of the individual actions of member states, which weakens the consistency of EU action. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be taking control of the process of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the European market. While still maintaining a significant level of exports, Moscow is also maintaining an energy weapon that it could use against the EU in the context of the approaching winter.

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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

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Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

More than six months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian exports of oil and petroleum products, Russia’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality. Having found new markets, the industry has managed to cut crude production by only 5% while avoiding a reduction in oil processing. Moreover, sales of oil and petroleum products have increased. However, the fact that drastic production cuts have been avoided represents only a partial success. Firstly, the current structure of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products is marked by instability and a heavy dependence on sales to two customers, India and China, which account for up to about 80% of Russia’s total sales. Secondly, following the EU and G7 countries’ introduction of a price cap on Russian oil, some exports have been discounted while the transport of crude has generated additional costs as a result of the sanctions. This allows Russia to sell more oil, but it also reduces its budget revenues. Thirdly, the Russian government has pushed through reforms to the taxation of this sector, but these have failed to increase budget revenues, and have also spurred further capital outflows from Russia and weakened incentives to investment. By choosing not to slash crude production, the government has seemingly given priority to keeping its level stable at the expense of budget revenues. Therefore, the reduction of these revenues shows that the West has achieved the objectives of its sanctions, while also avoiding disruptions to supplies on global oil markets. However this situation may change in the second half of 2023, when an anticipated global oil deficit and a subsequent increase in the price of oil are set to boost Russian revenues from sales of crude and fuels.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on new security threats concerning Russian war on Ukraine. Energy security

Author(s): Jan Mazač,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lukáš Tichý,Martin Laryš,Zbyněk Dubský / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted the world’s energy system. The most urgent need was to phase out the EU’s dependence on Russian energy imports and find a quick replacement. In this joint paper, we approach the issue from two different perspectives of the Czech Republic and Norway, looking for intersections and identifying opportunities to strengthen cooperation and facilitate the accelerated energy transition and diversification. We conclude that both countries have taken immediate action in addressing the most pressing energy-related risks. The potential for closer cooperation is obvious. Both countries should maximise the level of collaboration by taking advantage of existing institutional frameworks (NATO and EU/EEA). In the energy dimension, the key to cooperation in the short term is gas (investment in production in Norway, development of export pipelines or protecting critical sub-sea infrastructure). In the longer term, both countries should jointly cooperate on developing of hydrogen market, including production and transportation.

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