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A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.

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Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighborhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.

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Challenges for Canada’s Minority Liberal Government

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) remains the largest political party in the lower chamber of federal parliament following the results of early elections in Canada. The prime minister however had counted on a majority, which would have allowed him to more easily enact LPC’s key economic and social policies. In a minority government, Trudeau will be forced to search for support from among the remaining parliamentary parties. The lack of a majority may also complicate the pursuit of ambitious foreign policy to fight climate change and assume broader engagement in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic.

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The New German Government’s European Policy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the coalition agreement unveiled on 24 November, the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens express resolute support for closer European integration. The new government will likely be more active than outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet in initiating and shaping community decisions. The coalition announced ambitious climate policy and support for boosting the EU’s strategic sovereignty and establishing new sources of revenue. The prospect for a deal between the Union’s northern and southern members on reform of fiscal rules has improved.

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En Marche’s Defeat in French Local Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche (LREM), has been defeated in the second round of French local elections, held on 28 June. The ruling party’s score was weakened by record abstention, its unclear ideology, internal conflicts, and unfortunate choice of top candidates. Macron’s government will continue cooperation with independent local elites, although it will be even more difficult given the relative success of the Left and Greens. While the success of such cooperation could increase the legitimacy of the government’s policies, much more probable is controversy between the government and local leaders, which will result in enhanced competences for the central power.

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A System Correction in a Time of Crises: German Federalism vs. the Pandemic

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The diversity of regional strategies to counter the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the German federal government to take control of the fight against the coronavirus and the Bundestag temporarily increased the powers of the central authorities in the area of healthcare. The initial difficulties of the regional governments in the fight against the pandemic can be a catalyst for constitutional changes and increasing the role of the federal government in areas such as healthcare and internal security.

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The Significance of the Civil War in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Protests against racial discrimination in the U.S. have returned the issue of the southern Confederate States’ cultural legacy to the American political debate. This has become one of the main themes of the presidential campaign ahead of the November elections. Divisions in American voters’ evaluation of these historical events split partially along political lines; however, Donald Trump and Joe Biden share the same goal of exploiting the discussion about this difficult historical period to increase their electorates in key southern states.

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Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The National Security Law, imposed on Hong Kong by China on 30 June, has reduced protests against China’s policy. The scale of the restrictions, including those potentially affecting foreigners, and China’s supervision over the implementation of the law have already worsened the living conditions of Hong Kong residents and functioning of foreign companies. China’s actions caused an international reaction, mainly from the UK, the U.S. and the EU. Concerned about the safety of its citizens, the EU recommends that Member States suspend their extradition agreements with Hong Kong.

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The Anti-Corruption Protests in Bulgaria

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria that have lasted for two months are not weakening. Marchers demand the depoliticisation of the prosecutor’s office and the dismissal of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. After a decade in power, Bulgaria has the highest recorded level of corruption and the least media freedom in the European Union. Despite this, Borisov is not criticized by EU institutions or the largest Member States, which opt for stability in a country that lies on key migration routes over demanding devotion to high standards of democracy.

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The Next Evolution of Hungary’s Defence Policy

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Hungary’s new National Security Strategy (NBS) emphasises strengthening European defence. NATO remains the country’s security pillar, yet military and defence-industrial cooperation with Germany and France is given priority over the U.S. Hungary’s low commitment to NATO’s deterrence and defence posture weakens its position in the Alliance, which is why the country will try to capitalise on an active defence policy to strengthen its clout in the EU. Consequently, Hungary may support and engage in initiatives aimed at building European strategic autonomy in competition with NATO.

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Mali after the Coup

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In August, a group of officers overthrew the president of Mali. This further complicated the fragile situation in the country. While the military has delegated some power to a transitional civilian government, it wants to retain influence over major decisions. The EU’s priority remains the strengthening of Malian institutions so that the state ceases to be a seedbed of jihadism and criminality that threatens Europe’s neighbourhood.

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Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.

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A Never-Ending Story: The Fight Against Corruption in Ukraine

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Although Volodymyr Zelensky has identified the fight against corruption as one of the most important objectives of his presidency, he has not yet achieved success in this area. A large part of the Ukrainian political elite is trying to sabotage the activities of institutions fighting corruption. They are doing this through the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU), which has paralysed the national anti-corruption system with its judgments. The success of the fight against corruption in Ukraine depends on reform of the CCU and pressure from the IMF and the EU. Poland can support these efforts to reduce the scale of smuggling from Ukraine and improve the investment climate for Polish companies.

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Second Wave of COVID-19 in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.

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France: New Lockdown Worsens Old Crises

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

A robust increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections forced the French authorities to introduce a new lockdown from 30 October. This attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic coincides with rising apprehension after recent terrorist attacks and a worsening economy. The government of Jean Castex is only a few months old but has to cope not only with the introduction of a recovery plan but also the need to reinforce the sense of security among the people of France.

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Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

At the beginning of November, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met for the first time after the presidential election in the de facto state of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Politicians have declared their willingness to return to the reunification talks, but a compromise is unlikely. As a consequence, the new president of the TRNC, supported by Turkey, will strive to solve the Cyprus problem by creating two independent states. This poses a serious challenge to the European Union, which advocates the unification of Cyprus as a federal state.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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Navalny’s Significance in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The attempt to poison Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny exacerbated relations between Western countries and Russia and led to increased recognition and sympathy towards him among Russians. For medical reasons, Navalny will remain abroad for the next few months; however, he has declared his intention to return to Russia to prepare the political base for elections to the State Duma, which will take place in September 2021. The significance of Navalny in internal Russian politics will increase, but it will not threaten the position of President Vladimir Putin.

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№113: Kim Jong Un’s First Decade

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.

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№108: Norway’s and Poland’s Experience with Migration: A Comparative Perspective

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Norway transitioned from a net emigration to a net immigration country decades earlier than Poland. However, as Poland rapidly undergoes this transformation, it seems particularly important to draw on the experience of other countries in shaping national migration policy that enables benefits both for the host country and immigrants. In this context, Norway may be seen as a source of inspiration in developing a national reception and integration system for migrants, as well as in programming development assistance. As a Schengen and European Economic Area member, Norway is also a partner in implementing EU migration policy.

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