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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Julian Rappold / Language(s): English

Europe’s economic crisis has further damaged Britain’s already difficult relationship with the EU. While most Member States seek a deepening of Europe’s political and financial ties, London is trying to recover its scope for independent action, ordering a review of the EU’s competencies and mooting a membership referendum in 2017. The reasons are rooted in Britain’s historical experience of international relations, which persists in the thinking of the main UK-wide parties. In their understanding, Britain’s political trajectory and its geopolitical position are a boon, and not things to be modified through integration with neighbours. More than ever, London views the EU as an obstacle rather than a tool. Awareness of the UK’s specific attitude towards regionalism may offer room for compromise.

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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

Author(s): Ole Jacob Sending / Language(s): English

Poland and Norway are unequal partners when it comes to governance and the management of issues such as security, migration and energy. One still ranks relatively low according to good governance indicators, having had to reinvent its whole system of government following the fall of communism; the other ranks high. One has spent two decades adapting to the EU’s rules; the other remains outside that framework but decided to sign an agreement on the European Economic Area that has made it a quasi-member without direct access to decision-making bodies. At the same time, the hierarchy—an element of inequality—hinders the learning process between the countries. Can Poland and Norway learn anything from each other? This paper, which sets out some of the thinking underpinning the GoodGov project, provides some answers. Following a brief review of the literature on policy learning, it identifies “experimentalist governance” as the model best suited to the two countries, before closing with some practical remarks about how such a model might look.

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№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

The Football World Cup may be an event for the global audience to celebrate, but not all Brazilians find it that entertaining. The mass protests demonstrating society’s dissatisfaction that began last year under the slogan “The Giant Woke Up” and Brazil’s economic slowdown persist. Despite the country’s outstanding economic prosperity and social progress in the recent years, Brazil has not yet been able to raise its standing on the international stage. Moreover, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff’s limited interest in foreign policy, and her centralising leadership, especially ahead of the October presidential election, have turned Brazil into a far more hesitant and less global player than was the case under her two predecessors.

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№42: Sixty Years of Poland–India Relations: Towards a Genuine Partnership?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Relations between Poland and India are 60 years old, and have been traditionally described as “close and cordial.” Their history can be broadly divided into two periods—one between 1954 and 1989, and the second after 1989. Whereas the first is sometimes regarded as a golden age in Polish–Indian ties, the latter is seen more as a time of mutual disengagement and negligence. However, during the last a few years, we have observed the beginning of a third era, with renewed efforts to revive stronger cooperation. Trade is again on a clear upward trend, and high-level meetings take place more often. In fact, for the first time, both countries are fully independent and strong enough to create a robust and genuine partnership.

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№32: The Unexploited Potential of Poland’s Cooperation with Taiwan

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Taiwan, with its economy based on high technology and innovation and home to global IT companies which are among the world’s largest electronics manufacturers, should be an attractive economic partner for Poland. But the distance, limited channels of communication, lack of knowledge of each other, differences in economic development, and market access barriers in Taiwan make bilateral cooperation occasional and not intensive. A recent improvement in cooperation as a result of Taiwan’s decision to open its market to Polish pork and prospects for signing an avoidance-of-double-taxation agreement should be used as a good basis for deepening bilateral cooperation. What is more, better Cross-Strait relations create a chance for Poland to improve its economic presence in mainland China through closer cooperation with Taiwanese companies.

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№29: Human Security: Reactivation of an Idea?

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

Human Security is a concept in which the general principles of human rights are interpreted at the perspective of a single citizen. Originally associated with security sector reform, Human Security offers a holistic approach to our understanding of security: all relevant actors and instruments should be included in the process of the efficient, effective and non-discriminatory provision of common state and human security within a framework of democratic governance. The importance of Human Security will probably increase in the future as an important category in foreign and security policies, and it will generally exert considerable influence upon the development of international relations.

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№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

After yet another Tuareg rebellion, followed by a virtual takeover of the northern parts of the country by various terrorist organisations and a highly destabilising coup d’état, Mali finds itself engulfed in a protracted political, security and humanitarian crisis. The worrying series of events in Mali has brought the country to the attention of international actors, including the European Union (EU), which is concerned about the lack of stability and security in the Sahel, an area adjacent to the immediate EU neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the majority of the foreign ideas on how to address Mali’s crisis lack an enduring commitment to improve the situation on the ground. Unless the international proposals are in line with the UN Secretary General’s recommendations from 29 November 2012 and veer towards long-term solutions, Mali is likely to remain destabilised for the foreseeable future.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№25: Emerging Latin America: A Case for Increasing Poland’s Interest in the Region

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

With the advancing “multipolarisation” of the world order, accelerated by the recent global financial crisis, Latin America is becoming one of the centres of international economic relations. High growth rates, relative resilience to the crisis and broadening business opportunities in the region have meant an improvement in the attractiveness of countries there, particularly Brazil, the sixth largest economy in the world. The changes in Latin America have found resonance in the policies of the largest countries of the European Union. The Polish government, too, should follow these moves to advance the internationalisation of domestic companies, strengthen Poland’s international position and take steps to become Latin America’s partner of choice amongst the countries that have joined the EU since 2004.

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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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№14: Libya: Too Hot to Handle

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The rapidly evolving events around the crisis in Libya will be the first test of this kind for the European countries that lead diplomatic efforts against Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi. France’s symbolic first strike in operation “Odyssey Dawn” was quickly followed by an American lead offensive. The American administration, deeply involved in Afghanistan and still effectively responsible for Iraq’s security, wanted to avert the impression that they were leading yet another military offensive against a mostly Muslim country. However, the crisis shows deep divisions within the international community, NATO, the EU and the arrayed coalition itself. It is a high-risk but also a possible high-gain type of operation although there is not enough evidence to suggest that Qaddafi has completely lost popular support or that the opposition speaks on behalf of the majority of Libyans. As the awakening wave is sweeping the Middle East, events in Libya set a precedent for other Arab countries and citizens, torn between their quest for dignity and reluctance to accept outside intervention.

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№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.

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№4: The European Army – How to Do It Right?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The current difficulties in the European Union, caused by the result of the Irish referendum, show that bold projects regarding European integration can be misunderstood and cause serious concerns. One of such initiatives is the idea of a European Army, which is likely to trigger equally ardent discussions. Hence, we propose to look at the issue from a different perspective. The idea of a European Army dates back to the beginning of the European integration process of the 1950s. Even though the Pleven plan collapsed, other projects, aiming to create joint European military capabilities, were later discussed regularly (e.g. attempts to reactivate the Western European Union in the 1980s). Today, almost a decade since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, the discussion on the EU’s military capabilities is more dynamic than ever before. The reason is simple: the actual shape of the ESDP does not live up to the growing demand for a more active European Union made by many EU member states as well as by other significant actors in international relations.

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Delimitation of Maritime Areas in the Eastern Mediterranean as a Challenge for the EU

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

For several reasons, there are difficulties in delimiting the borders of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and continental shelves in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are a number of conflicting claims that vary in scope, as well as various legal obligations, the lack of international recognition of several parties to the disputes, and the application of a policy of fait accompli on some of the sides. It is in the EU’s interests to create conditions for the conclusion of a multilateral delimitation agreement concerning a part of the basin west of Cyprus, and bilateral agreements for Cyprus with Lebanon and with Syria.

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Delimitacja obszarów morskich we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego jako wyzwanie dla UE

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): Polish

Trudności z wytyczeniem granic wyłącznych stref ekonomicznych i szelfu kontynentalnego we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego wynikają z kilku przyczyn. Są to liczba i zakres sprzecznych roszczeń, brak uznania niektórych stron sporów, stosowanie przez część z nich polityki faktów dokonanych oraz zróżnicowane zobowiązania prawne. W interesie UE leży stworzenie warunków do zawarcia wielostronnej umowy delimitacyjnej dotyczącej części akwenu na zachód od Cypru oraz dwustronnych umów Cypru z Libanem i Syrią.

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The Schengen Area and the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The coronavirus pandemic has prompted the Member States to reintroduce controls at internal Schengen borders. In response to their unilateral actions, the European Commission (EC) presented control guidelines aimed at protecting the flow of goods and returning citizens to their countries. At the EC’s request, country leaders also agreed to temporarily close the external borders of the EU and the Schengen area. These measures will ease tensions between countries and reduce the risk of paralysis of the single market. They may not, however, prevent further loosening of the Schengen agreement.

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Strefa Schengen w dobie pandemii COVID-19

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): Polish

Rozwój pandemii COVID-19 skłonił państwa członkowskie do przywrócenia kontroli na granicach wewnętrznych Schengen. W reakcji na te jednostronne działania Komisja Europejska (KE) zaprezentowała wytyczne co do kontroli, mające na celu ochronę przepływu towarów i powroty obywateli do ich krajów. Na wniosek KE liderzy państw uzgodnili też czasowe zamknięcie granic zewnętrznych UE i strefy Schengen. Środki te pozwolą złagodzić napięcia między państwami oraz ograniczyć ryzyko paraliżu wspólnego rynku. Mogą jednak nie zapobiec dalszemu rozluźnieniu układu z Schengen.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

For several decades, NATO has been developing crisis-management mechanisms to cope with natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and pandemics. However, during the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, the Alliance decided to focus on maintaining its capacity to defend territory and deter adversaries. Although this is NATO’s primary task, the lack of a visible response to the crisis may reduce public support for the Alliance, diminish its significance, and ultimately weaken its ability to conduct its collective defence mission.

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