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Still together, but apart? Kyiv’s policy towards the Donbas

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The peace deal agreed on 5 September 2014 concerning the ceasefire in the region covered by the conflict in the Donbas brought about a significant reduction in the scale of military clashes. However, in mid-January the separatist forces, supported by the Russian military, started an offensive along the entire front line. For example, they seized the airport in Donetsk and the village of Krasnyi Partyzan. About a third of the Donetsk and the Lugansk oblasts currently remain outside Kyiv’s control (see Map). Before the war, these areas were inhabited by 6.6 million residents, 15% of Ukraine’s total population. The process launched in September 2014 in Minsk, which was intended to regulate the conflict within the so-called trilateral contact group (Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and representatives of the separatists), resulted in an exchange of some prisoners of war, although it failed to have any political effects. Attempts at regulating the political situation were additionally complicated by the illegal ‘elections’ of leaders of the two separatist regions, the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (the DPR and LPR).

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Soft Belarusianisation. The ideology of Belarus in the era of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

Author(s): Piotr Rudkouski / Language(s): English

Over the past three years, a distinct change has become visible in the ideological discourse of the government of Belarus. To an increasing degree, the state ideology is focusing on strengthening national identity, emphasising the divergence of Belarus’s interests from those of Russia, and re-examining the historical narration in a direction which emphasises the distinctiveness of the history of Belarus from that of Russia. Above all, the government has changed its attitude towards the Belarusian language and culture. A campaign promoting the Belarusian language is being carried out on a large scale – under the auspices of state ideologues. The government has also become involved in the promotion of vyshyvanki, traditional, embroidered Belarusian clothes and their ornamentation. This allows us to talk about a process of ‘soft Belarusianisation’. Articles criticising Kremlin policy have begun to appear fairly regularly in the government media. Official representatives of the authorities, while not going so far as to promote the idea of friendship with the West, no longer refer to it using the rhetoric of the ‘enemy’, as was previously the case. This modification of ideological discourse probably means that the regime is looking for new ways to arrange its relationships, both with its own society and with the countries of the West. This does not mean, however, that the authorities are ready for systemic changes. The role of the President and the concept of the state remain unaltered in ideological discourse; there is still no tripartite division of power, and civil society’s room for manoeuvre remains narrow.

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Miękka białorutenizacja. Ideologia Białorusi w dobie konfliktu rosyjsko-ukraińskiego

Author(s): Piotr Rudkouski / Language(s): Polish

Over the past three years, a distinct change has become visible in the ideological discourse of the government of Belarus. To an increasing degree, the state ideology is focusing on strengthening national identity, emphasising the divergence of Belarus’s interests from those of Russia, and re-examining the historical narration in a direction which emphasises the distinctiveness of the history of Belarus from that of Russia. Above all, the government has changed its attitude towards the Belarusian language and culture. A campaign promoting the Belarusian language is being carried out on a large scale – under the auspices of state ideologues. The government has also become involved in the promotion of vyshyvanka, traditional, embroidered Belarusian clothes and their ornamentation. This allows us to talk about a process of ‘soft Belarusianisation’. Articles criticising Kremlin policy have begun to appear fairly regularly in the government media. Official representatives of the authorities, while not going so far as to promote the idea of friendship with the West, no longer refer to it using the rhetoric of the ‘enemy’, as was previously the case.This modification of ideological discourse probably means that the regime is looking for new ways to arrange its relationships, both with its own society and with the countries of the West. This does not mean, however, that the authorities are ready for systemic changes. The role of the President and the concept of the state remain unaltered in ideological discourse; there is still no tripartite division of power, and civil society’s room for manoeuvre remains narrow.

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Śmierdząca sprawa. Ekologia, protesty i duże pieniądze na biznesie śmieciowym w Rosji

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

W ostatnich miesiącach obwód moskiewski stał się ośrodkiem protestów społecznych przeciwko problemom środowiskowym, powodowanym przez składowiska odpadów komunalnych. Składowiska są przeciążone, nieodpowiednio zabezpieczone, emitują trujące gazy i odcieki do wód gruntowych. Problem jest najmocniej odczuwany w obwodzie moskiewskim (stolica generuje najwięcej odpadów), a poza wymiarem stricte ekologicznym dotyka sfer ekonomicznej i społecznej. Kluczowymi problemami, charakterystycznymi dla gospodarowania odpadami w Rosji, są przeciążenie legalnych wysypisk oraz tworzenie składowisk dzikich, nieodpowiednia utylizacja odpadów narażająca mieszkańców okolicznych miejscowości na skażenie powietrza i wód gruntowych, a także rabunkowa gospodarka prowadzona przez podmioty powiązane z prezydentem Władimirem Putinem, które zmonopolizowały sferę transportu odpadów. Pogłębiające się problemy ekologiczne, a zwłaszcza kłopoty zdrowotne mieszkańców powodowane przez wyziewy z wysypisk, stały się katalizatorem społecznego niezadowolenia. Mieszkańcy wielu podmoskiewskich miejscowości od kilku miesięcy protestują, a w niektórych wypadkach sięgają również po postulaty polityczne. Jednak analiza przebiegu (i wygasania) dotychczasowych protestów nie pozwala oczekiwać, iż doprowadzą one do systemowych zmian w funkcjonowaniu wysypisk czy do długofalowych efektów społecznych – powstania struktur kontroli obywatelskiej i zmiany relacji państwo–obywatel. „Protesty śmieciowe” wydają się dobrze ilustrować ogólną dynamikę protestów społecznych w Rosji. Mają one charakter spontaniczny i lokalny, koncentrują się na konkretnym problemie i wygasają po jego choćby cząstkowym rozwiązaniu, zmęczeniu protestujących lub presji ze strony władz. Ponadto protestujący rzadko postrzegają trapiący ich problem jako element szerszego systemu, sankcjonowanego z samej góry. Horyzontem ich oczekiwań jest dotarcie z petycją do prezydenta – „dobrego cara” – i punktowe rozwiązanie problemu, bez wprowadzania zmian systemowych. Pozwala to Kremlowi na zachowanie statusu wyłącznego decydenta i daje mu rozległe możliwości gaszenia protestów poprzez niewielkie ustępstwa, manipulacje uczestnikami wystąpień i zastraszanie lub przekupywanie ich liderów.

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№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

Author(s): Lidia Puka,Ole Gunnar Austvik,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Globally, many countries have become victims of the resource curse paradox and/or Dutch Disease after discovering and exploring hydrocarbon resources. The Norwegian experience, however, suggests that the impact of petroleum activities on the overall economy may increase over time, and not as a curse, but as a blessing. Due to good resource management, cost savings, and investment, Norway remains a model of sustainable development among resource rich countries, and, so far, a case for retaining strong government participation, control and supervision within the market regulations of the European Union. Although it is impossible to transpose the Norwegian model directly, EU countries that wish to develop an extractive sector, as Poland does, could learn from it, not least in elements such as private-public cooperation in a transparent institutional framework and strengthening of government competence, engagement, and control.

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№39: Solutions to Public Debt Crises in the EU: Seek Returns on That Investment (Views from Slovakia)

Author(s): Peter Goliaš,Eugen Jurzyca / Language(s): English

The purpose of providing financial assistance to indebted eurozone countries is to avoid uncontrolled bankruptcies that could lead to a breakdown of the euro area with severe negative consequences for all members of the EU. There is a high probability that the loans provided via the stability mechanisms will not be fully recovered. Nevertheless, the long-term benefits of those loans are expected to exceed the costs. Therefore, this form of financial assistance should be regarded as an investment that has its own rate of return, one that can be controlled for by insistence on adherence to certain rules of behaviour and diligent oversight.

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Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.

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Próby reformy polityki demograficznej Egiptu

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

Populacja Egiptu, najliczniejszego po Rosji sąsiada UE, wkrótce przekroczy 100 mln. W połączeniu z niesprawną gospodarką może to przyczynić się do wybuchu nowych kryzysów – na tle rosnącego bezrobocia, dostępu do wody i żywności oraz politycznych. W odpowiedzi na te wyzwania rząd, we współpracy z Unią Europejską, Stanami Zjednoczonymi i ONZ, podejmuje działania w celu zmniejszenia wskaźnika dzietności. Obniżenie tempa wzrostu populacji Egiptu pomoże ograniczyć dalszą destabilizację Bliskiego Wschodu i Afryki Północnej.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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Car-sharing: A Step towards Electromobility

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Car-sharing, more and more popular in Poland, is becoming an innovative element of public transport in cities. However, to make the expansion of car-sharing (rentals by the minute) an important step towards the development of electromobility in Poland and an effective way to improve air quality, cities should focus on electric car-sharing. Local government support for this initiative would be a promotional opportunity for Polish cities in international forums as leaders in low-emission transport and focused on innovative solutions.

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Car-sharing – krok w stronę elektromobilności

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Car-sharing (wynajem aut na minuty), zyskujący coraz większą popularność w Polsce, staje się innowacyjnym elementem transportu miejskiego. Miasta powinny jednak stawiać na car- -sharing elektryczny, co może stanowić ważny krok w rozwoju elektromobilności w Polsce oraz skuteczny sposób na poprawę jakości powietrza. Wsparcie samorządów dla tego środka komunikacji miejskiej to także okazja do promocji polskich miast na forum międzynarodowym jako liderów w transporcie niskoemisyjnym, sięgających po nowoczesne rozwiązania.

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China’s Environmental Disaster: Social Problem and Business Opportunity

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s economic development model has led to significant environmental contamination. The scale of the damage endangers the life and health of China’s inhabitants. The authorities are aware that their lack of action in the past has undermined their credibility and harmed China’s image worldwide. In 2015, the Chinese government declared a “war on pollution” and signed up for commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Simultaneously, China aims to develop the green sector of its economy. Actions it’s taken so far include a reduction in smog in 2017, but a lasting improvement in the country’s environmental condition is slowed by the huge costs of it and the resistance of local authorities. China can be expected to be moderately engaged in the implementation of the Paris agreement.

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Katastrofa ekologiczna w Chinach: problem społeczny i szansa gospodarcza

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Model rozwoju gospodarczego ChRL doprowadził do skażenia środowiska naturalnego. Szkody na taką skalę zagrażają życiu i zdrowiu Chińczyków. Władze zdały sobie sprawę, że brak reakcji podważa ich wiarygodność w kraju i szkodzi zewnętrznemu wizerunkowi Chin. Dlatego w 2015 r. ogłosiły politykę „walki ze smogiem” oraz przystąpiły do porozumienia paryskiego. Jednocześnie celem Chin jest rozwój „zielonego” sektora gospodarki. Podjęte działania zmniejszyły smog w 2017 r., ale przeszkodą do trwałej poprawy stanu środowiska są ogromne koszty, a także opór władz lokalnych. Chiny będą też umiarkowanie angażować się we wdrażanie porozumienia paryskiego.

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Russia’s Demographics: Is the Boat Sinking Again?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

The record high outflow of capital from Russia in 2014 is the most obvious consequence of the Kremlin’s military intrusion into Ukraine. But it is not only investors who resent the regional security crisis and economic uncertainty. Preliminary data for 2014 and early 2015 show that Russian citizens are leaving the country in greater numbers, while Russia does not attract as many migrants as before. Shrinking human capital, coupled with a massive cash exodus will, if they continue for a long period, weaken the Russian economy and might shatter its power position in the post-Soviet neighbourhood.

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Demografia Rosji – znów tonący okręt?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): Polish

Rekordowy odpływ kapitału z Rosji w 2014 r. jest najjaskrawszą konsekwencją rosyjskiej interwencji militarnej na Ukrainie. Jednak nie tylko inwestorów zniechęcają regionalny kryzys bezpieczeństwa i gospodarcza niepewność. Wstępne dane o roku 2014 i początku 2015 wskazują, że rosyjscy obywatele dużo liczniej opuszczają swój kraj, podczas gdy Rosja przyciąga mniej imigrantów niż wcześniej. Zmniejszanie się zasobów kapitału ludzkiego wraz z odpływem środków finansowych w dłuższym okresie mogą osłabić rosyjską gospodarkę i jej wpływy na obszarze postradzieckim.

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Montenegro - Between reform leader and reform simulacrum

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Six years since the start of accession negotiations, Montenegro is still a showcase of state capture. In the same manner it has been exhausting domestic democratic public for decades, Montenegrin Government masterfully applies the exhaustion strategy to the process of European integration, abusing the EU’s need for a new integration optimism.

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Evropa u mom gradu - O čemu pregovoramo i što nam pregovori sa EU donose?

Author(s): Ana Vujošević,Boris Marić,Chiara Gaia Iascone,Daliborka Uljarević,Danilo Ajković,Eliška Veselá,Jelena Žugić,Marko Sošić,Milan Marković,Mladen Perazić,Nemanja Tepavčević,Nikola Djonović,Petar Đukanović,Snežana Kaluđerović,Tamara Milaš,Vera Šćepanović,Vučić Ćetković / Language(s): Montenegrine

Crna Gora će proći do sada najzahtjevniji i najsloženiji put pregovora sa Evropskom unijom (EU). Činjenica da će pregovori početi poglavljima 23 – Pravosuđe i temeljna prava i 24 – Pravda, sloboda i bezbijednost, kao i da će ova poglavlja ostati otvorena do samog kraja, ukazuje na veličinu izazova sa kojim će biti suočena Crna Gora tokom pregovaračkog procesa. U publikaciji pred vama je kratak osvrt na ono čime će se veliki broj ljudi uključenih u pregovore po raznim osnovama, a posebno crnogorske nadležne institucije, baviti kroz usklađivanje crnogorskog pravnog okvira sa komunitarnom tekovinom EU, ali i kroz riješavanje raznih nivoa problema tokom cijelog procesa pregovora i nakon njih. Naša je namjera da približimo široj javnosti sadržaj pregovaračkih poglavlja projektujući ih na crnogorski model pregovora. Naime, jedna dimenzija ovog složenog procesa je to što će hiljade ljudi konkretno, dugo i naporno raditi na ispunjavanju preporuka EU i usklađivanju pravnog okvira sa standardima EU, odnosno izgradnji institucionalnih i demokratskih kapaciteta crnogorskog društva. Ali, druga, podjednako važna dimenzija jeste što će se paralelno svi građani i građanke Crne Gore, polako ali sigurno, kretati ka razumijevanju i prihvatanju konteksta koji će oblikovati pregovori po ovim poglavljima, a što će pratiti učinkovite reforme. Poglavlja su kreirana po društvenim oblastima i cio proces je vrlo precizno razrađen da prvo skenira stanje društva koje treba da postane punopravni član EU, kroz eksplanatorne i bilateralne sastanke, nakon kojih se kroz napredak i realizaciju akcionih planova dolazi do mjerila za otvaranje pojedinih poglavlja koje prati dalji napredak i efikasnost i efektivnost realizacije utvrđenih zadataka do dostizanja mjerila za zatvaranje pojedinih poglavlja. Ova procedura pregovora može asocirati i na pravila neke društvene igre. Ko prođe sve baze na koje naiđe pobijedio je. Lijepo bi bilo da su pregovori igra, ali oni su najzahtjevniji i najizazovniji proces sa kojim se crnogorske institucije sistema, pa i crnogorsko društvo, u cjelini suočavaju. Dešava nam se da stavljamo svoje kapacitete na provjeru na način koji nam do sada nije bio svojstven. Provjeravamo mogućnosti pune izgradnje institucionalnih kapaciteta, istražujemo sopstvene demokratske potencijale, suočavamo se sa razbijanjem tabua i predrasuda, otvaramo se za drugosti, postajemo spremni da preuzmemo odgovornost. Možda se nekom čini da smo ovo nekada ili makar nešto od ovoga već radili. Pokušaja jeste bilo, ali sistemskog pristupa izgradnji funkcionalne demokratije i nečega što kratko možemo definisati kao evropeizaciju društva zasigurno nije bilo. Danas i Unija ima brojne probleme, a posebno su izraženi problemi ekonomske prirode. Sumnjičavi bi mogli postaviti pitanje da li je uopšte opravdano kretati se ka evropskim integracijama, da li su iste možda prevaziđene? Kvalitet evropskih integracija je upravo u tome što je Unija uspjela da izgradi mehanizme demokratskog rješavanja svih pitanja. A taj kvalitet je vrlo potreban na ovim prostorima. EU nije samo uspješna ekonomska priča, ona je prije svega uspješna demokratska priča. Sve i da, hipotetički gledano, Crna Gora odustane od evropskih integracija, ona ne bi imala budućnost funkcionalne i prosperitetne demokratije bez pretresanja i izgradnje društveno-političke i ekonomske osnove na vrijednosnoj osnovi izgrađenoj u Uniji.

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Transitional justice through the eyes of citizens of Montenegro

Author(s): Miloš Vukanović / Language(s): English

A public opinion poll on the knowledge and attitudes of Montenegrin citizens about war crimes and transitional justice was conducted in order to obtain annual cross-sectional data. The data were compared, in the part of the same questions, with last year’s similar survey conducted by the Centre for Civic Education (CCE). Additionally, for the first time, questions were introduced that shed light on the perceptions of citizens about the attitude of the judiciary and certain state institutions towards war crimes. Such regular monitoring of the public’s knowledge and attitudes also provides useful insight into the effects of the work of various social actors in the process of dealing with the past. Also, in this manner, an empirical base is obtained concerning key issues that marked the political and social life in the past year, concerning this process, and the impact it had on society. For example, the issue of attitudes towards the genocide in Srebrenica marked the second quarter of the political life in Montenegro in 2021 and led to the first dismissal of a minister in the new Montenegrin Government, which was formed in December 2020. However, it is only this research that indicated that the dominant majority of Montenegrin citizens state that they know what happened in Srebrenica in 1995 (86%), than that twothirds of them define it as genocide, while the rest believe that it is a great war crime, but not genocide, or that there was a war in which people were killed on all sides. It is also interesting that with the controversial position of the former Minister of Justice, Human and Minority Rights, Vladimir Leposavić, that he is “ready to admit that the crime of genocide was committed in Srebrenica once it is unequivocally established “, more than half of the citizens did not agree, which could have been instructive for political decision-makers as well. However, on the other hand, the research indicated the overall complexity of Montenegrin society. Hence, the opposition parties, which initiated the impeachment of this minister due to his position on Srebrenica, are not significantly recognized by the citizens as political entities that advocate transitional justice. That points that their inadequate relation towards the issues of facing with past from the period when they had power has not been forgotten. The research is part of the “Dealing with the Past for the Future” project, which the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) is implementing with financial support from the U.S. Government, through the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL).

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The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU’s Economy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.

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