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Scanning Macedonia’s performance under the European Commission’s Progress Report’s Chapter 21: A race with obstacles? – Part II

Author(s): Ana Stojilovska / Language(s): English

This policy report aims at presenting and clarifying Macedonia’s performance under chapter 21 in 2010 and at inspecting the quality and the sustainability of the progress achieved in order to define the future challenges and to offer the relevant institutions research based recommendations for further progress under the chapter. Having covered the TEN-T part of chapter 21 in a previous publication, this policy paper will cover only the TEN-E and the eTEN part of chapter 21.

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№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

Author(s): Lidia Puka,Ole Gunnar Austvik,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Globally, many countries have become victims of the resource curse paradox and/or Dutch Disease after discovering and exploring hydrocarbon resources. The Norwegian experience, however, suggests that the impact of petroleum activities on the overall economy may increase over time, and not as a curse, but as a blessing. Due to good resource management, cost savings, and investment, Norway remains a model of sustainable development among resource rich countries, and, so far, a case for retaining strong government participation, control and supervision within the market regulations of the European Union. Although it is impossible to transpose the Norwegian model directly, EU countries that wish to develop an extractive sector, as Poland does, could learn from it, not least in elements such as private-public cooperation in a transparent institutional framework and strengthening of government competence, engagement, and control.

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№39: Solutions to Public Debt Crises in the EU: Seek Returns on That Investment (Views from Slovakia)

Author(s): Peter Goliaš,Eugen Jurzyca / Language(s): English

The purpose of providing financial assistance to indebted eurozone countries is to avoid uncontrolled bankruptcies that could lead to a breakdown of the euro area with severe negative consequences for all members of the EU. There is a high probability that the loans provided via the stability mechanisms will not be fully recovered. Nevertheless, the long-term benefits of those loans are expected to exceed the costs. Therefore, this form of financial assistance should be regarded as an investment that has its own rate of return, one that can be controlled for by insistence on adherence to certain rules of behaviour and diligent oversight.

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Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.

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Próby reformy polityki demograficznej Egiptu

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

Populacja Egiptu, najliczniejszego po Rosji sąsiada UE, wkrótce przekroczy 100 mln. W połączeniu z niesprawną gospodarką może to przyczynić się do wybuchu nowych kryzysów – na tle rosnącego bezrobocia, dostępu do wody i żywności oraz politycznych. W odpowiedzi na te wyzwania rząd, we współpracy z Unią Europejską, Stanami Zjednoczonymi i ONZ, podejmuje działania w celu zmniejszenia wskaźnika dzietności. Obniżenie tempa wzrostu populacji Egiptu pomoże ograniczyć dalszą destabilizację Bliskiego Wschodu i Afryki Północnej.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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Car-sharing: A Step towards Electromobility

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Car-sharing, more and more popular in Poland, is becoming an innovative element of public transport in cities. However, to make the expansion of car-sharing (rentals by the minute) an important step towards the development of electromobility in Poland and an effective way to improve air quality, cities should focus on electric car-sharing. Local government support for this initiative would be a promotional opportunity for Polish cities in international forums as leaders in low-emission transport and focused on innovative solutions.

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Car-sharing – krok w stronę elektromobilności

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Car-sharing (wynajem aut na minuty), zyskujący coraz większą popularność w Polsce, staje się innowacyjnym elementem transportu miejskiego. Miasta powinny jednak stawiać na car- -sharing elektryczny, co może stanowić ważny krok w rozwoju elektromobilności w Polsce oraz skuteczny sposób na poprawę jakości powietrza. Wsparcie samorządów dla tego środka komunikacji miejskiej to także okazja do promocji polskich miast na forum międzynarodowym jako liderów w transporcie niskoemisyjnym, sięgających po nowoczesne rozwiązania.

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China’s Environmental Disaster: Social Problem and Business Opportunity

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s economic development model has led to significant environmental contamination. The scale of the damage endangers the life and health of China’s inhabitants. The authorities are aware that their lack of action in the past has undermined their credibility and harmed China’s image worldwide. In 2015, the Chinese government declared a “war on pollution” and signed up for commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Simultaneously, China aims to develop the green sector of its economy. Actions it’s taken so far include a reduction in smog in 2017, but a lasting improvement in the country’s environmental condition is slowed by the huge costs of it and the resistance of local authorities. China can be expected to be moderately engaged in the implementation of the Paris agreement.

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Katastrofa ekologiczna w Chinach: problem społeczny i szansa gospodarcza

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Model rozwoju gospodarczego ChRL doprowadził do skażenia środowiska naturalnego. Szkody na taką skalę zagrażają życiu i zdrowiu Chińczyków. Władze zdały sobie sprawę, że brak reakcji podważa ich wiarygodność w kraju i szkodzi zewnętrznemu wizerunkowi Chin. Dlatego w 2015 r. ogłosiły politykę „walki ze smogiem” oraz przystąpiły do porozumienia paryskiego. Jednocześnie celem Chin jest rozwój „zielonego” sektora gospodarki. Podjęte działania zmniejszyły smog w 2017 r., ale przeszkodą do trwałej poprawy stanu środowiska są ogromne koszty, a także opór władz lokalnych. Chiny będą też umiarkowanie angażować się we wdrażanie porozumienia paryskiego.

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Russia’s Demographics: Is the Boat Sinking Again?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

The record high outflow of capital from Russia in 2014 is the most obvious consequence of the Kremlin’s military intrusion into Ukraine. But it is not only investors who resent the regional security crisis and economic uncertainty. Preliminary data for 2014 and early 2015 show that Russian citizens are leaving the country in greater numbers, while Russia does not attract as many migrants as before. Shrinking human capital, coupled with a massive cash exodus will, if they continue for a long period, weaken the Russian economy and might shatter its power position in the post-Soviet neighbourhood.

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Demografia Rosji – znów tonący okręt?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): Polish

Rekordowy odpływ kapitału z Rosji w 2014 r. jest najjaskrawszą konsekwencją rosyjskiej interwencji militarnej na Ukrainie. Jednak nie tylko inwestorów zniechęcają regionalny kryzys bezpieczeństwa i gospodarcza niepewność. Wstępne dane o roku 2014 i początku 2015 wskazują, że rosyjscy obywatele dużo liczniej opuszczają swój kraj, podczas gdy Rosja przyciąga mniej imigrantów niż wcześniej. Zmniejszanie się zasobów kapitału ludzkiego wraz z odpływem środków finansowych w dłuższym okresie mogą osłabić rosyjską gospodarkę i jej wpływy na obszarze postradzieckim.

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Taliban Firmly in Control of Afghanistan Two Years After Takeover

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Two years after taking control of Afghanistan, the Taliban have consolidated power and are improving the country’s security and economic situation. These positive changes are taking place at the expense of women’s rights and the activities of international organisations, which are both severely restricted, and the exclusion of ethnic minorities from participation in governing the state. Despite the intransigence of the Taliban, the lack of a political alternative will encourage the West to increase cooperation with the government to pursue common interests, such as the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, but without formal recognition of the regime.

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The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU’s Economy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.

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Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň,Jan Daniel,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

As a follow-up up to the military involvement of the Czech Republic in the region since 2013 and the consequent rural development projects there, the whole-of-government strategy towards the Sahel (G5) is an expression of responsibility and responsiveness to the related security challenges for the European Union and its African partners. By subscribing to the security-development nexus, Czechia recently reinforced its diplomatic presence in the Sahel and spread its activities to the areas of health, migration and civil society. To make its contribution to the Coalition for the Sahel sustainable and complementary to the EU’s efforts, Czechia should update its national strategy to build the Sahel’s forward resilience, expand the governance and development pillars and mainstream human rights and gender. It should also improve the financial planning and mainstream the Sahel in the current budget lines to mobilise domestic expertise, gain public support for the Strategy’s long-term implementation and give credence to the Sahel as a priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU in 2022.

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Lessons learned after the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement

Author(s): Mirko Pejanović / Language(s): English

Over the past two and a half decades multiple problems have been identified in the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement. The process of development of the BiH society has generated some visible achievements that could lead to a stable development of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, at the same time, some halts in development of the BiH society and state are also notable. These halts have led to the deepening of the crisis in economic development, particularly since 2015. Namely, since 2015, several dozen thousands of young people have left Bosnia and Herzegovina and went to European counties in pursuit of economic prosperity.

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2020 Bosnia and Herzegovina- Croatia: Relations in the shadow of recent history

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the seventh local elections since the signing of the Dayton peace agreement were held on 15 November 2020. The elections brought about tectonic changes on the political scene and are a prelude to the announced political changes at the parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place on 2 October 2022. Political changes had also led to success in North Macedonia, with the arrival of Zoran Zaev (SDSM) to power. Zaev took his country to membership in NATO and it is expected that Macedonia will soon open the accession talks with the European Union. The Brussels Dialogue between the official Belgrade and Priština is entering its final phase. In Montenegro, the recent parliamentary elections resulted in the fall of the 31- years long regime headed by Milo Đukanović (DPS), which was an introduction into groundbreaking political changes and stabilization of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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The Future of Turkey after the Last Elections: the Kurdish question and the economic outlook

Author(s): Diego Del Priore / Language(s): English

The last parliamentary elections in Turkey mark a political and an institutional turning point in the country's history. The importance of the vote derives from two main factors. Firstly, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Party of Justice and Development (AKP) has lost its parliamentary majority, although it remains the largest party in the Parliament with 258 seats and 40.9% of the votes. This is the first time that the party has been in this position since 2002, when the AKP swept to power and retained a majority in the Turkish Parliament. However, the AKP failed to achieve its objective of 350 seats, as the party leader and president of the Republic since August 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had hoped.

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Geopolitics & Organized Crime and Corruption in the Early 21st Century with Reference to the Balkans

Author(s): Blagoje Grahovac / Language(s): English

Let’s summarize the main determinants of political and social developments of the Northern Hemisphere (and beyond) over the last two centuries. In short, national states were built in the 19th and civic states in the 20th century. Political jargon for all socio-political processes has established an original term - the new world order. If we simply relied on this term, then the main determinant of the "new world order" for the 21st century would be contained in the formula: with democratization into integration until globalization.

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