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Turcja wobec kryzysu syryjskiego

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

The escalation of tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border in early October confirms that it is ongoing. For more than a year and a half, the civil war in Syria is one of the main challenges for Turkey foreign and security policy. Ambitions to play a key role in the Middle East, in particular, a number of threats to Turkey related to the escalation of the conflict prompt Ankara to actively engage in bringing the crisis to an end under secure conditions, i.e.: Turkey's security and as much influence as possible on the situation in Syria and the region. For the main purposes Ankara now has to bring about the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and peace transformation in Syria while maintaining security. For the implementation of these goals, Türkiye has taken a number of unilateral and international actions. Their results were limited so far. Maintaining Damascus' military advantage over the opposition and none strong enough pressure on the Assad regime from the international community does not offer prospects for a quick end to the conflict on terms that suit Ankara's interests. At the same time, the negative effects of the crisis on Turkey are intensifying. In this situation, of particular importance has an alliance for Turkey to increase security and achieve Syrian policy goals with the West, mainly within NATO, as well as with the United States and EU countries. Cooperation within NATO and with individual Western countries in the face of the crisis is for Ankara as a test of the usefulness of the alliance with the West. This rating will affect the influence of the West on Turkey in its Middle East policy.

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China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Despite its formal defence alliance with the United States, the Philippines has been grappling with China’s increasing pressure in the South China Sea. The growing number of maritime incidents risks escalating local tensions into a full-scale confrontation between China and the US. China’s claims exceed merely establishing its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the disputed area; it seeks to assert a form of sovereignty akin to that of territorial waters, which are regarded as integral to a nation’s territory. Thus, the South China Sea issue extends beyond a straightforward dispute over the delimitation of the EEZ and challenges fundamental norms of international relations.

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ANALIZA USAGLAŠAVANJA SRBIJE SA SPOLJNOPOLITIČKIM DEKLARACIJAMA, STAVOVIMA I MERAMA EVROPSKE UNIJE TOKOM 2014. GODINE

Author(s): Authors Various / Language(s): Serbian

The Working Group on Chapters 30 and 31 of the National Convention, coordinated by ISAC Fund, presents its first annual analysis of Serbia’s alignment with declarations, positions and measures adopted under the framework of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. The analysis provides a critical review of the process of alignment, while providing a number of recommendations for the Government of Serbia and its negotiating team. The analysis is only available in Serbian.

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Analiza usaglašavanja Srbije sa spoljnopolitičkim deklaracijama i merama Evropske unije tokom 2015. godine

Author(s): Authors Various / Language(s): Serbian

ISAC Fund presents its second annual analysis of Serbia’s alignment with declarations, positions and measures adopted under the framework of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. The analysis provides a critical review of the process of alignment, while providing a number of recommendations for the Government of Serbia and its negotiating team.

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ANALIZA NACIONALNIH KAPACITETA ZA DOPRINOS MEĐUNARODNIM CIVILNIM MISIJAMA

Author(s): Dejan Milenković,Dušan Ignjatović,Igor Novaković / Language(s): Serbian

The main goal of this in depth research analysis is to contribute to the creation of legislative framework in order for Serbia to send its civilian experts in peace support operations. This document offers a comparative legal analyses of the legal frameworks for sending civilians in peace support operations of six European countries: Estonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Germany. It also provides a short overview and clarification of what the civilian missions are and how they have evolved over time.

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Zašto je STO važna za EU i svetsku trgovinu uopšte?

Author(s): Predrag Bjelić / Language(s): Serbian

The main topic of this analysis is the relationship between the World Trade Organization and the European Union. A special emphasis is put on the nature of international trade today and the reasons why the WTO is necessary for its regulation. It also points out why the EU insists that all its members be simultaneously members of the WTO.

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Zašto Srbija treba da uđe u Svetsku trgovinsku organizaciju?

Author(s): Bojana Todorović / Language(s): Serbian

The main goal of this analysis is to point out the importance of the World Trade Organization for smaller countries as well as to present the basic motives for which any country, including Serbia, should strive for membership in this organization.

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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Since December 2023, the US administration has been increasing its pressure on Russia’s financial sector and its foreign partners. This has made it progressively more difficult for the Russian Federation to pay for imported goods and services. Reports from Russian media and businesses also indicate that several Chinese banks have ceased their cooperation with Russia due to concerns over US secondary sanctions. Nonetheless, these challenges have not yet led to any significant alterations to Russia’s foreign trade. According to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), in the first eight months of 2024, the value of imports fell by approximately 8% year-on-year, while exports declined by more than 1%. This relatively modest reduction suggests that Russian entities, in collaboration with their foreign partners, particularly those in the Global South, continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. However, the costs of importing goods are increasing and delivery times are lengthening. Consequently, inflation continues to rise, further exacerbating Russia’s economic woes.

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Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak,Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s seizure of a portion of Russian territory containing strategically important gas infrastructure assets has not resulted in a reduction of Russian gas flow to EU consumers. However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies.

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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum products, enforced since June 2021, has effectively cut off Belarusian exporters from profitable Western markets. Furthermore, sales to Ukraine, one of the country’s key markets, have also been halted due to the ongoing war.The Belarusian oil sector, once a significant source of profit, has recently been compelled to reorganise its supply logistics and redirect its exports. Following a challenging year in 2022, Belarus’s two refineries, with support from Moscow, managed to partially recover their losses by capitalising on favourable price trends in the Russian fuel market. However, this industry, along with other sectors of the economy, has become entirely dependent on cooperation with Russia. While the refineries have adapted to the new circumstances, they were still forced to reduce oil processing by approximately one-third, which has negatively impacted their profitability and, consequently, diminished their importance within the national economy.

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An analysis of Serbia’s compliance with EU foreign policy declarations and measures in 2016

Author(s): Jovana Perkučin,Igor Novaković / Language(s): English

The foreign policy activity of the European Union is embedded in its founding values and common interests of its member states, which, as the Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU puts it, “go hand in hand.“1 The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) rests on a consensus reached after an extensive harmonization of positions and coordination, making the EU foreign policy decisions the smallest common denominator of member states’ foreign policies, i.e. the core of common interests. Because of that, the Union and its member states find it difficult to accept when partner states, or those striving to achieve EU membership, do not heed the reasons which led to making certain decisions, i.e. avoid to align with them.

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The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

In the vision for the economy presented by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (CC), technological progress is portrayed as the solution to the major issues affecting the People’s Republic of China and the concerns of its government. The party did not seize the event as an opportunity to present concrete solutions to China’s structural problems or to improve its current economic situation. Instead, preparations for a confrontation with the US remain the party’s unwavering priority. For Beijing, the ultimate goal of modernising the Chinese economy is to enhance the state’s security and to discover new sources of productivity. Technologies developed and upgraded within China, alongside the expansion of its industrial base, are crucial in achieving this. This is expected to reduce China's reliance on foreign supplies, to make industrial development the new driving force of economic growth and to secure China’s position as the global leader in innovation. This all comes at the expense of the Chinese people’s prosperity. When faced with the choice whether to combat the fundamental problem of low consumption or strengthen the ‘fortress’ which is being besieged by the US, Beijing has opted for a technological ‘leap forward’. This strategy is likely to escalate trade disputes with other countries that are affected by Beijing’s industrial policy and fear a ‘China shock 2.0’.

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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Alongside Via Baltica, Rail Baltica (RB), which involves the construction of a high-speed railway (HSR) connecting the Baltic state’s capitals, has been the most important infrastructural venture carried out by these states since they regained independence. Due to mounting costs, the high rate of inflation recorded in recent years, the expansion of the scope of work and bureaucratic problems, its implementation is at least five years behind schedule. An almost four-fold increase in its cost, from €5.8 bn to €23.8 bn, is the biggest challenge, as now the project’s funding is in excess of the financial capacity of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. RB has been included in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), as a result of which the Baltic states are obliged to complete the investment by 2030. Although Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have mainly financed its implementation from EU funds (85% of the eligible costs), these sums are highly insufficient. If the Baltic states fail to obtain further EU funds for this purpose, there is practically no chance of completing the investment, that is constructing all the planned sections and adjusting these to the required HSR parameters, in this time frame.

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Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

A peculiar political system has emerged during the five years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine, with virtually all power concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) which he controls. The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and the Cabinet of Ministers have been marginalised, and the most important decisions in the country are made at Bankova Street, where the president and his administration are based. This is partly a consequence of the characteristic prevalence of informal governance mechanisms over formal ones in Ukraine, which includes the role of the president being greater than laid out under the constitution.

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Analiza usaglašavanja Srbije sa spoljnopolitičkim deklaracijama i merama Evropske unije tokom 2017. godine: polugodišnji izveštaj

Author(s): Teodora Pavković,Jovana Perkučin / Language(s): Serbian

As part of its activities related to monitoring Serbia’s progress under Chapter 31, ISAC announces a semi-annual review of Serbia’s alignment with the EU foreign policy declarations. The report covers the period from January to July 2017 and consists of a brief analysis and tabulation of Serbia’s alignment with the EU foreign policy declarations.

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Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

After many years of rapid population growth, Turkey’s demographic future hangs in the balance. The record-low birth rate in 2023 and the changing age structure indicate that Turkish society is entering a stage of ageing typical for highly developed countries. Regional disparities in this respect are also deepening: the country’s poorer, south-eastern region has a much higher fertility rate and a younger population, while the northern regions along the Black Sea have a higher average age. These current trends reflect deeper transformations taking place in Turkey, driven by internal migration and modernisation processes related to factors such as urbanisation and cultural changes; they are also the product of many years of economic uncertainty. Simultaneously, growing numbers of mostly young people have been leaving the country. These developments herald an imminent demographic crisis that will negatively impact the Turkish economy and necessitate a major adjustment of social policy.

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The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

On 27 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual keynote speech in Băile Tușnad, Transylvania, Romania, which was almost entirely focussed on global issues. Orbán emphasised that Europe needs to emancipate itself from US influence, shift away from supporting Kyiv, and pursue an agreement with Moscow. He also criticised Poland’s pro-American policy aimed at weakening Russia, which he described as wrong and “doomed to fail”. Furthermore, he underscored the necessity of acknowledging the rise of Asian powers, viewing this as an opportunity, particularly with regard to cooperation with China.

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A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Hostile attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania have become more widespread as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Belarus’s involvement. This animosity has been further exacerbated by the ongoing debate in the Lithuanian media about how to interpret the two nations’ shared, centuries-old history. The key context for these tensions is the significant growth of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania over the past four years (c. 63,000 people) and the influx of 86,000 Ukrainian citizens and 16,000 Russians following the outbreak of war in 2022. This situation has confronted Lithuanian politicians and special services with the challenge of identifying and preventing possible threats. They have been closely monitoring efforts to disseminate radical, nationalist, and other views inspired by Belarusian and Russian special services with the aim of dividing the two nations. Such views include the concept of the so-called ‘Litvinism’, a pseudo-scientific theory which claims that the medieval Lithuanians were in fact Belarusians and that they founded the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (GDL). If this theory were to be legitimised, Lithuania’s right to the Vilnius region could be called into question. Leaders of the Belarusian diaspora have supported Lithuania’s position that rejects Litvinism and have viewed any efforts to popularise this idea as attempts to drive a wedge between the two nations.

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures in 2018: Semi-annual Review

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Carter Teng / Language(s): English

The semi-annual report of Serbia’s alignment with the EU foreign policy declarations for the period from January to July 2018. The report consists of a brief analysis and tabulation of Serbia’s alignment with the EU foreign policy declarations and measures.

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Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Over the course of his seven-year presidency, Emmanuel Macron has had complete freedom in shaping France's foreign and security policy. This autonomy is evident in France’s fluctuating stance towards Russia, from initial hopes of building a shared European security architecture to the recent reports of dispatching French military instructors to support embattled Ukraine. The pace of decision-making was undoubtedly an advantage for France compared to many allies, but it did not always enhance Paris's credibility.

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