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Common Regional Market and European Perspective

Author(s): Dušan Ristić / Language(s): English

At the latest Berlin Process Summit, held on November 10, 2020 in Sofia, the Western Balkan leaders (WB6) agreed upon an ambitious plan to create a Common Regional Market (CRM). Aside from the Political Declaration reiterating their commitment to intensified regional cooperation, WB6 adopted a detailed Action Plan sketching out concrete steps along the way. The initiative was heralded by the European Commission as a stepping stone towards EU membershipand its complementarity with the long-awaited Economic and Investment Plan was praised. Taking into account that the initiative has become a flagship project of the Berlin Process, and in the light of the upcoming Summit to be organised in Berlin by the outgoing Chancellor Merkel, it is worthwhile analysing the state of this potentially very fruitful endeavour. Therefore, this Insight aims at breaking down the complex notion of a Common Regional Market and the envisaged benefits of the initiative, whilst analysing the compliance with the adopted Action Plan, bearing in mind the European perspective of the region.

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The Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

After Germany, the largest and most influential EU member-state, a relatively small country from the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal, comes at the helm of the Council of the EU. Despite its size and location, it is a country which has often “punched above its weight” as it has acquired significant experience in EU-affairs. Not only was the last treaty change made in Lisbon in 2007 during the then Portuguese Presidency, but Portugal also provided a two-term Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso (2004-2014), as well as a Eurogroup-President, Mario Centeno (2018-2020). With regards to presiding over the Council of the EU, Portugal also comes as a veteran - by presiding for the fourth time since becoming a member in 1986. Meanwhile, its political landscape remains stable and committed to the EU integration process, whilst having a pro-EU and pro-enlargement oriented population. These aspects are certainly conducive to its presidency in the upcoming six months.

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The German Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Sena Marić,Strahinja Subotić,Aleksa Ilić / Language(s): English

The German Presidency of the Council of the EU takes place against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the EU, along with the rest of the world, needs quick and bold action to adapt to the resulting tectonic changes. These circumstances have pushed Germany to lead the Union across the Rubicon in regard to the future of the European project. In fact, Germany's ambitious Presidency program reflects its renewed strategic outlook by instigating the EU's recovery and ushering a path towards further integration. For this reason, the decisions made during Germany's term have the potential to become a critical juncture for Union's further evolution. With the aim of uncovering what may lie ahead for Europe in the following period, this Insight examines Germany's long-term vision for Europe, analysing its Presidency program and scrutinising Germany's positions on the pressing questions of the EU recovery fund and Multi-annual Financial Framework, climate and the environment, rule of law conditionality, and EU common foreign and security policy. At the same time, it analyses the place of the Western Balkans in such a complex network of priorities.

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Croatia's Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

Croatia takes over the Council Presidency from Finland at a turbulent time for enlargement policy, especially after the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia was postponed yet again. While such a move caused shockwaves among the expert community, it also had a snowball effect of putting enlargement back on the agenda of EU leaders. All of this took place in the context of yet another Brexit extension, a prolongation of the Multi-annual financial framework negotiations, and the delay of the start of the new European Commission. Regarding the upcoming period, what awaits the region during the Balkan presidency of Croatia? Is the upcoming Summit in Zagreb simply going to be Sofia 2.0 or can the region expect more tangible commitments and results? As phase one of the talks on the Future of Europe, according to the Franco-German proposal, is planned to start and end with Croatia's presidency, this CEP Insight answers whether this a burden or a blessing for this Balkan country.

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Finland's Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

While the Council of the EU has been headed by the countries from the Western Balkan's neighbourhood (Austria, Bulgaria, and Romania) in the last 18 months, the time has come for Finland - a country geographically distant from the region - to take over. The saying “out of sight, out of mind” implies that things can be dismissed as unimportant when not in direct view of the subject. Will this be the case with Finland vis-a-vis the Western Balkans? What can the countries of the region do to get closer to Finland? What are Finland's priorities? This CEP Insight hopes to provide answers to thesequestions.

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Romanian Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

On 1 January 2019, Romania started presiding over the Council of the EU, for the first time since joining the Union. It took up the baton from Austria, a country whose priorities mainly revolved around strengthening the EU's security, tackling the migration issue, and supporting the Western Balkan's EU perspective. What about Romania's priorities? Recognising that 2019 will be a busy year for the EU - due to the European Parliament elections, Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) negotiations, and Brexit conclusion - this CEP Insight explores the programme of the Romanian presidency and sheds light on what the Western Balkan may expect from its neighbour when it comes to prioritisation of enlargement.

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The Western Balkans Through the Brexit Lenses

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote in March 2016, European Policy Centre (CEP) published an Insight where it presented three possible outcomes of the withdrawal negotiations: 1.“The UK maintains political stability, withdrawal negotiations swiftly concluded”; 2. “The political scene in the UK remains unstable, Brexit happens after extended and painful negotiations”; and 3. “Brexit does not happen”. Two years later, reality seems to bear out the second scenario. Whereas the negotiations have proven to be quite difficult to handle, this scenario has ill-suited both negotiating sides. But what about the Balkans? Now that Brexit is reaching the end,1 this CEP Insight reflects on its potential political and economic implications for the Western Balkans (WB) - a region that aspires to join the very same Union that the UK is intending to leave. The overallaim is to encourage further discussions on what lies ahead for the Balkans in the post-Brexit Europe.

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The EU Electoral Reform Efforts: Europeanising the 2019 Elections?

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

All across the EU, it has become quite common to label the modus operandi of the EU as ineffective, its institutional set-up as undemocratic and its politics as far removed from European citizens. Attempting to address these concerns, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker called for institutional reforms in his 2017 State of the Union Address. In it, he endorsed the continuation of the Spitzenkandidaten-experiment and the introduction of transnational lists in the 2019 European parliament (EP) elections. Knowing that 2019 will mark a transition to a new institutional cycle, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk gathered the EU271 leaders on 23 February 2018, at an informal leaders' summit, in order to discuss and decide whether to endorse, postpone or nullify the chances of survival of these proposals. Ultimately, both proposals failed to acquire unanimous support of the EU leaders, who instead opted for revisiting these issues in the future. In this regard, the purpose of this Insight is to present and examine both proposals in order to unravel what they might mean for the future of the EU. Last but not least, this Insight illustrates how these proposals would affect Serbia once it becomes an EU member state, with the aim to draw the debates on the EU institutional framework closer to the Serbian public.

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From the Bulgarian to the Austrian Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

On 1 July 2018, Bulgaria handed over the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) to Austria. Both enlargement-friendly presidencies came at a time of uneasiness and external and internal unpredictability for the Union. As the ongoing trade war and the disagreement on military spending show, EU-US relations have become tense in areas which constitute the backbone of the transatlantic alliance, such as trade and defence. Meanwhile, populist governments, like the one recently established in Italy, as well as those of Poland and Hungary, have been causing concerns with their divisive rhetoric and Euroscepticism. Finally, as the EU's ‘key leader' Angela Merkel continues to face instability at home, and the2019 EP elections are approaching, the EU has found itself in a limbo of ‘soul searching' due to its inability to find common solutions on the most pressing issues such as migration.

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Serbia Scores a Weak Two in Professionalisation of Public Administration

Author(s): Vladimir V. Mihajlović / Language(s): English

Although public administration reform is recognised as one of the three pillars of EU Enlargement, nonetheless, neither acquis communautaire nor separate negotiating chapter exists for this area. Therefore, the European Commission had to come up with a new mechanism for monitoring progress of candidate countries in this field. Thus, in 2014, the EC and SIGMA have developed Principles of Public Administration which encompass six areas. Within the document the keyelements of good governance are included, i.e. the requests that countries should complete in order to become a successful EU member country one day. In 2015, SIGMA conducted a detailed analysis of public administration in all candidate countries and potential candidates for EU membership. In this document we analyse Serbia’s score for the Public Service and Human Resource Management and present scores of other Western Balkan countries. The area of public service is analysed through seven principles which are recognised as necessary preconditions for the establishment of professional public administration and merit-based civil service system.

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Possible Date for EU Accession and the Years Ahead

Author(s): Duško Lopandić / Language(s): English

The recent announcement by the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, on EC's plan to prepare a Strategy for a successful EU accession of Serbia and Montenegro as front-runner candidates in the Western Balkans in 2025 perspective is very important for Serbia and the rest of Western Balkans. His speech represents the first occasion when an EU representative mentioned even a possible date for EU's future enlargement - 14 years since the EU-Western Balkans Summit in Thessaloniki, almost 8 years since Serbia lodged its membership application, and 4 years since the accession negotiations with the EU were opened. Consequently, the ongoing accession negotiations, characterised by unclear timeframe, have become slightly more focused in terms of deadlines. At the same, Juncker's speech puts naysayers at bay. An increasing number of experts, domestically and internationally, have often given their estimates that Serbia negotiates EU accession in vain and that the EU enlargement is a never-ending story - a la turque.

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Estonian Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Sena Marić,Strahinja Subotić / Language(s): English

Estonia is the last "new member state" to hold the rotating presidency for the first time. Unlike any presidency beforehand, Estonia has one additional challenge: a shorter preparation period. Namely, after the Brexit vote occurred in 2016, the UK decided to give up on its Council presidency which was due to start in July 2017, in order to focus on the complex Brexit negotiations lying ahead. Consequentially, Estonia's presidency was rescheduled to begin six months earlier than it was originally planned. Despite such a challenge, all facts presented in this Insight seem to indicate that Estonia has put in a serious amount of effort to ensure that its presidency goes smoothly and according to the plan.

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Is the EU on the move again? The development of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and “Multi-speed” EU

Author(s): Duško Lopandić / Language(s): English

The decision of the European Council, made on the 22nd of June in 2017, to establish the so-called "Permanent Structured Cooperation" (PESCO) in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the Union, represents, in a way, one of first indirect consequences of Brexit on the EU progress. This decision suggests the possible outlines of the development of the "Multi-speed" European Union, which is a possibility widely spoken about in EU circles after the British referendum. After a series of crises, institutional paralysis and the shock of the Brexit, followed by more positive results of elections in France, Austria and the Netherlands, a touch of optimism has returned to Brussels."Europe is on the move again" (Europe is in a new movement) ,would be the comment by one of its "fathers"- Jean Monnet.

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Lessons Not Learned. Commentary on the EU's 17-points Plan and its Alternative

Author(s): Katarina Kosmina,Lana Radovanović / Language(s): English

As the massive refugee influx continues to grow, the European Union is attempting and failing to find effective solutions. The most recent such attempt was the meeting in Brussels at the end of October, which gathered leaders from Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. The result of this meeting was the 17-points plan of action (the Plan). This CEP Insight deconstructs the Plan and provides critique of its most controversial measures. Furthermore, the Temporary Protection Directive is presented, explained, and advocated for as an alternative solution to the current crisis. Finally, the article considers the repercussions of the Plan in the context of Serbia.

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Handling the Refugee Influx. Between the Lwas, Borders and Political Discourses

Author(s): Lana Radovanović,Katarina Kosmina / Language(s): English

When speaking about the refugees currently arriving in Europe, it is rather difficult to focus on one relevant dimension: the legal framework, border policy, and political discourse - all converge to affect both how we speak and act on the issues arising from the mass influx of refugees on the territory of the European Union. This article attempts to deconstruct the EU’s response to the current ‘crisis’ and outline its relevance for Serbia’s asylum strategy. The focus will be on relevant EU legislation, such as the Dublin III Regulation, and ensuing issues, as well as the response taken regarding border policies and political discourse.

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Better Regulation Package: Regulating More or Regulating Less?

Author(s): Amanda Orza,Milena Lazarević / Language(s): English

Better regulation is not a novelty, but a continuation of previous efforts through different means. This time around, there were great expectations from the package and its influence on policy formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. From the onset, Commission President Juncker showed unequivocal political support for the better regulation agenda. A clear indication was the fact that within the ‘two-tier’ College of Commissioners, the senior strand was to be led by Frans Timmermans, the First Vice-President responsible for inter alia the better regulation portfolio. Suchan action spurred a lot of hope of the magnitude of reforms aiming at the simplification and streamlining of superfluous EU legislation. According to Juncker’s mission letter to Timmermans, every new initiative will have to go through and receive the green light from the VP in order to assure the respect of subsidiarity and proportionality, and to reduce the activity of the Commission to merely those which genuinely represent added value if acting on the EU level.This article will go through the main changes that the packages bring to conclude on their feasibility in the near future, and relevance to Serbia.

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Luxembourg Presidency of the EU. Focus on the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Sena Marić / Language(s): English

The past spring and summer of the European continent have been, without any doubt, marked by two hot topics: “the greferendum” – Greek referendum and the conditions for staying in the Eurozone; as well as now the already chronic exodus of refugees from the Middle East and Africa to European countries. While the first one falls under the competence of the “troika”, comprising the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the matters of migration and asylum policy are shared between the EU member states and the European Parliament – and are thereby one of the top priority issues of the current Luxembourg Presidency of the Council. Current priorities of the three countries are defined very broadly, and the task of each country is to make them more concrete and in line with the topical issues and needs. Since we have already argued on the priorities of the Italian and Latvian presidency, and since they do not essentially differ from those defined by Luxembourg, this insight will focus on the refugee crisis issue, as one of the topics that dominated the Luxembourg agenda in the past July, i.e. the first month of the 6-month long Luxembourg Presidency, and which, judging by the most recent opinion polls, currently brings the most concerns to the EU citizens

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EU Institutions and Citizens. How Does the Past Lack of Communication Affect the Present?

Author(s): Sena Marić / Language(s): English

What would have been the outcome of the recent Greek referendum if the European Union had engaged in a "yes" campaign? If the French and Dutch citizens had not rejected the Constitutional Treaty 10 years ago, how would the European Union look today? Or, what would the present situation look like if an open debate had been set up, focusing on the changing demographic picture of Europe, inability to stop immi-gration, and the ways in which the EU can act in relation to these issues? As it may be, if the European Commission had invested more in public relations and communication with European citizens over the past two decades, we would be living in a different Europe. It is indeed surprising that, despite the widely recognized problem of European citizens’ alienation from the EU institutions and unawareness of the basic information regarding the functioning of this community, there has been no unified and coherent EU communication policy. This text is pointed out by extensive public opinion polls biannually conducted by the Eurobarometer. They revealed that the trust of EU citizens in European institutions and the EU has been continually decreasing from 2007 to the present date.

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Lobbying in the EU demystified ... and what does it all mean for Serbia?

Author(s): Amanda Orza / Language(s): English

We hear a lot about Commissioners and MEPs reinventing themselves into lobbyists and working for the private sector following the end of their mandate. We also hear a lot about the influence that the corporate interests have on European Union policies with little regard for the common citizen. But is it all as bad as it is covered? CEP Associate Sofia Tzortzi wrote some time ago a commentary explaining what lobbying is, what activities it constitutes and who the people who lobby in theEU are. Not to repeat her arguments, she rightfully concluded that lobbying representsa broad range of activities that aim to influence policy making and a particularpolicy, and that therefore everyone lobbies - trade associations and consumer organisations, non-profits, foundations, private actors, governments of member statesas well as third countries, etc. Still, lobbying remains a dirty word in the vocabulary across the Union since it is regarded as the defence of corporate interests at the expense of the public and civic interests such as the environment, or women's andworkers' rights. This article seeks to open the discussion on how maliciousLobbying remains adirty word in the vocabulary across the European Union, as it is regarded as the defense of corporate interests at the expense of the public and civil interests. As the European project extended beyond the strictly market-related policies, the citizens began to understand that the regulatory policies of the EU concern them. Eversince, the debates on democratic legitimacy of the EU decision-making have heated up and the system saw itself constantly justifying its existence. lobbying is in reality and reflect on a few interesting studies that looked into the issueof whose interests prevail and through which mechanisms, in order to have amore nuanced picture of what is actually going on in the lobbying world in Brussels and how it is relevant for Serbia.

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