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CSD Policy Brief No. 10: A Painful Shift in Bulgarian Anti-Corruption Policies and Practice

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In its March 2006 annual corruption assessment report On the Eve of EU Accession: Anti-Corruption Reforms in Bulgaria the Center for the Study of Democracy emphasized that “corruption, particularly in the high echelons of power, is one of the most critical problems faced by Bulgaria on the eve of its accession” as the Bulgarian “public tolerates less corruption and is increasingly concerned by it.” Bulgaria needs to present clear evidence of results in its fight against corruption, in particular on high political level.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 19: Energy Strategy of Bulgaria 2020: a better Governance Perspective

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Energy is a key sector for Bulgarian economy, both because of its size and because of its importance to national competitiveness. This requires decisions to be made on the basis of reliable and accessible data, broad based discussions and clearly identified strategic priorities, which rely on established practices and mechanisms for good governance. The latest strategic document at national level is the Bulgarian Energy Strategy from 2002. Without updating it, the Bulgarian government has committed in the years following its EU accession to substantial investments with long‐term impact on the energy sector, which is a vivid example of failure in good governance. Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union (EU), climate change negotiations, the financial and economic crisis and Bulgaria’s inclusion in several international investment projects have changed the conditions for the development of Bulgaria’s energy sector. These latest developments require updating of the national energy strategy and providing for better and transparent governance in the sector.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 20: Policies to counter the Effects of the Economic Crisis: Hidden Economy Dynamics 2009

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The hidden economy has been a central topic for discussion in the public space upon each amendment to the economic legislation and particularly before elections or the passing of the national budget. Nevertheless, aside from the Annual Hidden Economy Index released by the Center for the Study of Democracy and a few sporadic analyses by other non‐governmental, academic and business organizations, there is a lack of an adequate government system of ex ante and ex post impact assessment of the proposed measures to fight hidden activities of the wider economy. // The adjustments of GDP done by the National Statistical Institute aiming to include hidden economy in the system of national accounts are not made public and do not serve as a basis for decision‐making. // Thus, public debates on hidden economy become little more than displays of rhetorical skills or actually serve completely different agendas rather than the implementation of measures to curb its negative impact.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 65: The Wind that Blows from the East: Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The topic of Russia’s influence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has grown in significance after the eruption of the Ukrainian crisis in 2013. The US and EU policy and research communities have scrambled to explain the potential scenarios, tools, and impacts of the Russian influence, as well as propose possible solutions to minimizing its negative effects on European unity. This policy brief, which summarizes the key findings from the joint study of the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe, presents a model for understanding the impact of Russia’s economic influence in Central and Eastern Europe in five case study countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Serbia, and Slovakia), and its relationship to the region’s general decline in governance standards. The study estimates that on average, Russia’s economic footprint in five of the most targeted by the Kremlin CEE countries has ranged from about 11 percent of the economy (in the cases of Hungary and Slovakia) to an astonishing 22 percent in Bulgaria. After 2008 the Russian leadership has aggressively deployed its resource-based resurgent economic power in combination with old time security networks and skillful use of traditional soft power appeal to exploit and further strategic vulnerabilities across the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Russia has also cultivated an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making. This web resembles a network-flow model, which we describe as an “unvirtuous circle” of Russian influence leading to “state capture.”

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CSD Policy Brief No. 66: Динамика на конвенционалната престъпност 2015 – 2016 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Crime rates in 2015 continue their downward trend with a decrease of 0.4% compared to 2014 levels. It must be noted, however, that the level of reporting crime to the authorities falls compared to officially registered numbers by the MoI in 2015. This means that latent crime is on the rise, which signifies a drop in public confidence in the MoI. One of the main reason for this discrepancy are the so-called police filters, which lead to diverging levels of officially recorded conventional crimes and crimes reported by the citizenry. These are some of the results of the National Crime Survey for 2015, presented in the current publication.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 67: Turkey in The Framework of the EU Energy Union: Energy Security and Governance Risks

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The successful creation of a European energy union will not be possible without the active involvement of Turkey. The latter is going to play a vital role as the major transit country of future alternative natural gas supply from the Caspian region and the Middle East. Similarly, Turkey will benefit from the development of the Energy Union because it can transform itself in a major energy-trading hub, Turkey’s long-term energy policy objective. The EU and Turkey also share a common objective to diminish their dependence on Russian energy imports, which could provide a necessary boost to the formal energy dialogue between the two partners in January 2016.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 68: Monitoring Radicalisation and Extremism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Over the last decade, radicalisation and extremism have become issues of particular concern for Europe. New risks of Islamist and far-right radicalisation have impelled the introduction of policies, the effects of which are only now being evaluated. As radicalisation that risks escalating into violence is more amenable to prevention than repression, having the capacity to detect early warning signs and trace the spread of extremist activity over time is critical. This brief outlines a set of methodologies for monitoring the risk of radicalisation and the trends in extremism based on an integrated approach to the indicators being monitored and the institutional mechanism doing the monitoring. These methodologies are designed to equip stakeholders – both governmental and non-governmental – with a tool which fuses a broad range of informational inputs; it will enable informed formulation of prevention and counter-radicalisation policies.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 69: Money Laundering in Bulgaria: State of Affairs and Policy Implications.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Bulgaria remains high risk country for the initiation of money laundering schemes. The high share of informality in its economy, coupled with the low level of enforcement against corruption and organized crimes, renders the country’s financial system highly susceptible to money laundering.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 70: A Roadmap for the Development of the Bulgarian Electricity Sector within the EU Until 2050.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Based on data and modelling used by the European Commission, three scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Bulgarian electricity sector until 2050 have been developed. These scenarios provide the model framework for policy decision-making for Bulgaria in all energy domains. The results suggest the necessity for active policy-making on a number of sensitive energy issues, often linked to entrenched special interests.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 71: Assessing Russian Economic Footprint in Macedonia.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia’s economic footprint in Macedonia has often been perceived as non-existent at best or very limited at worst. However, a detailed assessment of the Russian presence in the country reveals a more nuanced picture, in which many of the engagement channels are indirect, including through third parties and offshore companies. The revenues of Russian companies operating in Macedonia grew fourfold from EUR 63 million in 2006 to over EUR 212 million in 2015. // Much of the Russian investment in Macedonia is channeled via third countries including through offshore havens like Cyprus and Belize, obscuring the true extent of the economic footprint. Russia has also engendered the Macedonian energy dependence by controlling the single gas route to the country – via the TransBalkan Pipeline. Gazprom charges Macedonia one of the highest gas prices in Europe and has locked in the country in a costly expansion of the natural gas network. The current policy brief underlines that though the Russian economic footprint in Macedonia has been much less pronounced than in other Western Balkan countries, there is significant potential for future growth considering Russia’s project plans in the energy sector over the next decade. The authors also note that over the last two years, Russia has skillfully exploited Macedonia’s political instability, striving to undermine the country’s Trans-Atlantic ties.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 72: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Serbia.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian economic footprint has been deepening in some countries in the Western Balkans for at least a decade. In what is the most visible manifestation of this trend, Russian entities have gradually taken over the Serbian energy sector. Russian entities, directly or indirectly affect as much as 10 % of the economy. Notably, corporate presence measured by volume of revenues and assets controlled by Russian companies in Serbia is even larger than in Montenegro, where Russian foreign direct investments are a third of the country’s GDP. // There are two main interconnected factors in Russo-Serbian relations that have laid the foundations for Russia’s expanded power in the country. One is Russian support for Serbia’s non-recognition of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, and the second is a 2008 energy agreement that included Gazprom’s takeover of Serbia’s largest state-owned company, oil and gas firm Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). // The current policy brief notes that in addition to the corporate investments, Russia has used direct government-to-government loan schemes to enhance its presence in the Serbian economy. The authors also highlight that Russia has compounded its political ties with Serbia and its economic presence in the country by leveraging traditional pro-Russian, pan-Slavic, and pan-Orthodox attitudes via a series of soft power initiatives.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 73: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Montenegro.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The last decade has seen a significant level of economic engagement by Russian companies and individuals in Montenegro. Vital economic ties have been sustained despite the fact that bilateral political relations worsened as this small Adriatic country stepped up its efforts to complete the NATO accession process. The deterioration of political relations between the two countries culminated in an alleged failed coup attempt in 2016 and the Russian backing of the opposition Democratic Front (DF) party. Even so, Russian investment flows never dropped below 10 % of total foreign direct investment (FDI). // The current policy brief underlines that Russia has exploited governance gaps to take advantage of lucrative privatization opportunities and to extract state subsidies in Montenegro. The authors also highlight that Russia has assertively tried to meddle in Montenegro’s domestic politics.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 74: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia has been one of the key political players in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the Dayton Accords brought the 1992 – 1995 war to its end. According to the peace agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of two entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS) with roughly equal territories – and the Brcko District. It is in RS, the entity with a Serb majority, that Russia has gained the most traction. Russia has particularly backed RS’s opposition to the Transatlantic integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as RS secession initiatives. Many regional observers feel that the secessionist aspirations of RS could potentially lead to a new regional conflict. // The current policy brief highlights that Bosnia and Herzegovina is completely dependent on Russian gas supplies. Russian companies also control the country’s two refineries, both located in Republika Srpska. Russia has consistently been the largest foreign investor in RS and the fourth largest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with around EUR 547 million of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country over the 2005 – 2016 period.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 77: Making Democracy Deliver in the Western Balkans. Strengthening Governance and Anticorruption,

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In 2018 the EU and NATO and the countries from the Western Balkans have a unique chance to reinvigorate the Euro Atlantic perspective of the region. There are many areas of concern that require attention but anticorruption and good governance remain the most critical to tackling the two key risks for the Western Balkans. On the one hand, countering corruption and state capture will free the economy from the monopoly of entrenched political-economic groups and will open up space for spurring entrepreneurship and lowering unemployment. On the other hand, strengthening the rule of law and governance will improve the resilience of the region to malicious meddling from external powers intent to derailing its Euro Atlantic integration. // The current policy brief provides key policy recommendations on delivering reforms in this domain through the successful triangulation of the efforts of reformist-minded local politicians, active civil society, and supportive international partners and donors.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 80: The Illicit Trade of Tobacco Products along the Balkan Route – Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Romania.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Bulgaria and Romania have long traditions in illicit tobacco trade rooted in the hardships of their transitions to market economy. Unlike them, Greece and Italy enjoyed lower levels of illicit tobacco consumption, which changed with the arrival of the global economic crisis in 2009. Thus by 2012 illicit market soared from 2.2 % up to 8.5 % in Italy and from 2 % up to 10 % in Greece. The economic crisis have also led to sharp increase in illicit tobacco consumption in Bulgaria and Romania as well. However, while Bulgaria and Italy managed to stifle the illicit market, Greece and Romania continue to face high levels of counterfeit and contraband cigarettes. // The current report examines the development of the illicit tobacco market in Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Romania through the prism of economic risks, the political environment in the country and the region, and recent changes in the involved criminal networks and the institutional capabilities for counteraction. The publication was prepared in the framework of the study "Illegal Trade in Tobacco Products and the Balkan Route: Overcoming Institutional Gaps and Corruption" and is funded by PMI-IMPACT, a global initiative to combat illegal trade and related crimes.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 83: Standards for Forced-Return Monitoring in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The issue of forced-return monitoring is a constituent part of the common European return policy, which is regarded as one of the highest priorities of the common EU migration policy. A primary objective of the EU return policy is to scale up return rates in proportion to the total number of return decisions issued through strengthening the Member States’ return capacity, as well as in cooperation with and by providing support to the countries of origin and transit.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 85: The Kremlin Playbook: Тhe Movie.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Kremlin Playbook 2: The Enablers revealed how Russia has developed and sustained state capture networks in Europe to enable the expansion of its economic and political influence. // Austria has been one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe. Russia has increased its economic footprint in the country significantly over the last decade. Russian entities have rechanneled billions of euro in Russia-owned banks in Austria. The latter received an exemption from the European sanctions to continue operating within the Eurozone system and facilitate loans and deposit operations involving Russian entities.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 97: The Chinese Economic Footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. Impact on Energy Transition and Climate.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past decade China has launched and promoted its first global infrastructure and economic development platform – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It seeks to link China with Europe and countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. The BRI binds the countries along its way in large-scale China-financed infrastructure projects, which enhance China’s economic and political leverage. Around USD 14 billion in Chinese funds have entered the Central and Eastern European region in the form of grants, development loans, mergers and acquisition of domestic assets and concession agreements. To expand its economic influence in CEE, China has exploited a number of domestic governance deficits including lack of transparency of intergovernmental agreements, circumvention of national competition and public procurement law, and inconsistency with EU objectives. // The Policy Brief makes a comprehensive overview of the different patterns of Chinese economic influence. It measures the main indicators for the Chinese economic footprint in 12 CEE countries. The brief zooms in on the impact of Chinese investments on the overall quality of climate policies as well as provides targeted policy measures on countering the malign aspects of the Chinese economic presence.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 100: Kremlin’s Anti-Democratic Messaging and Disinformation in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Democracy in Europe has encountered a wide array of internal and external challenges in recent years. The continuing rule of law problems and democratic backsliding, the rise of domestic populism and extremism, disruptive social media and technological developments, and authoritarian-state-driven influence operations have undermined democratic governance on the continent. // An effective and all-encompassing response to Russian (and other authoritarian-state) disinformation would require an integrated, multi-stakeholder approach based on cooperation among policy-makers, civil society, and European/international institutional actors. Achieving such a whole-of-society approach to countering Russian disinformation in Europe calls for much more coordination, flexibility, and swiftness of responses.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 103: Capture Proofing the Energy Sector in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of TurkStream.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

TurkStream, construction of which was completed on 4 July 2021, will increase energy security risks in CEE and will divert scarce resources away from productive investment in energy diversification and green transition. Tellingly, Bulgaria, for example, commenced construction of the strategically important, yet decades in the making, interconnector with Greece (IGB) only after it started laying down TurkStream pipelines. As a result, TurkStream has already crowded out alternative LNG and Azeri gas supply from the regional gas market.

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