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7th CELAC Summit in Buenos Aires a Step Towards More Intensive Regional Cooperation

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The 7th Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), held on 24 January in Buenos Aires, may help in restoring the importance of the initiative as the main mechanism for political dialogue in the region and with its extra-regional partners. The meeting’s final declarations included a broad set of goals, for example, on the issue of regional integration, but ideological divisions in CELAC may hamper these plans. A stronger CELAC is important for the EU because of the ongoing revival of bi-regional relations.

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Implications of the Incursions into U.S. and Canadian Airspace

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In the first half of February, a series of serious incidents happened in the airspace of the U.S. and Canada involving shootdowns of four objects, with at least one confirmed as a Chinese balloon, likely used for intelligence. The U.S. administration is conducting an investigation to explain the various platforms, the equipment onboard, and their mission. Because further incidents cannot be excluded, some changes in the rhetoric of the Chinese government should be expected, as well as a higher readiness of air defence networks of the powers.

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Biden Visits Kyiv Unannounced

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 20 February, U.S. President Joe Biden made surprise trip to Ukraine. The visit, which took place a few days before the anniversary of the 2022 Russian invasion, is greatly symbolic for Ukraine and confirmation of the U.S. role as a key Ukrainian partner. President Biden announced the delivery of a new military assistance package. His visit to Kyiv was part of a wider trip to Central Europe, an important element of which will be meetings and a speech in Warsaw.

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Putin’s Address - a Year of War in a Besieged Fortress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 21 February, Vladimir Putin delivered an address to the Federal Assembly (the joint chamber of the Russian parliament). He repeated his accusations against NATO and the U.S. that they are responsible for the war in Ukraine. His speech was mainly aimed at an internal audience, as he was trying to set them up for a prolonged struggle for Russian victory in Ukraine and to discourage ordinary Russians from dealing with the West.

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Biden in Poland Calls for Unity on Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 20-22 February, after returning from Kyiv, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Poland. The visit was aimed at marking the role of Poland and the countries of the region in the assistance provided to Ukraine. The president also emphasised the unity of the alliance of democratic states over the past year of Russian aggression and their readiness to continue to support Ukraine’s military victory.

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Lukashenka Visits China

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 1-2 March 2023, Alexander Lukashenka was on an official visit to China. During the meeting, a number of bilateral political and economic declarations were signed. Despite the lack of official announcements, security issues were also one of the most important topics of the talks. Closer cooperation between Belarus and China will be beneficial for Russia from the perspective of its aggression against Ukraine.

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Military Situation in Ukraine as of 10 March 2023

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the heaviest fighting has been taking place in the Donetsk region, especially in the city of Bakhmut. Its capture is important for the Russians both for propaganda and military reasons because it may facilitate a further westward offensive, among other things. The need to effectively stop the Russian actions means the importance of rapid deliveries of Western equipment to Ukraine and training of Ukrainian soldiers conducted in NATO countries is growing.

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Parliamentary Elections in Estonia Confirm Reform Party Rule

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Elections to the unicameral Estonian parliament, the Riigikogu, on 5 March were won by the Reform Party, the largest of the governments so far, which will probably form a coalition with the liberal Eesti 200 and the Social Democratic Party (SDE). Its success was determined by high activity in support of Ukraine after the Russian aggression. The new government will maintain this approach and will further strengthen transatlantic and regional cooperation, especially in the field of security.

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Macron-Sunak Summit Leads Off a Difficult “Entente Cordiale”

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

On 10 March, the first Franco-British summit since 2018 was held in Paris, co-chaired by President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. It was intended to demonstrate the will of both countries to renew their strategic partnership, weakened after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Despite the cordial atmosphere during the leaders’ press conference, the Franco-British relationship remains a challenge given the differences in the interests of the two countries involved.

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ICC Issues Arrest Warrant for Vladimir Putin

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

On 17 March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Commissioner for Children’s Rights in his office, Maria Lvova Belova, officially the Russian ombudswoman for children’s rights. Both are suspected of committing war crimes by the ICC Prosecutor’s Office. The ICC’s step against Putin is an important gesture that shows that the court does not shy away from prosecuting even the highest officials. However, enforcing the warrants will be difficult given that both individuals will avoid countries where they could be arrested and transferred to the court’s custody.

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EU Plans for Increased Ammunition Production

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 23 March, EU leaders accepted a plan to increase the delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine and reconstitute Member State stockpiles. This should free-up still-available reserves for Ukraine and lead to a higher level of ammunition production in Europe. It is another EU initiative for military assistance to Ukraine financed from European Peace Facility (EPF) funds. The success of the plan demands further engagement by the Member States and EU institutions to change the current operating mode of ammunition producers in Europe.

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Russia Preparing the Deployment of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Vladimir Putin’s remarks on the preparation of infrastructure to place Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus is another attempt to intimidate the West. The deployment of these weapons will not fundamentally change the military situation in the region, but the announcement again demonstrates Russia’s use of nuclear threats for aggressive purposes and Russian control over Belarus. The move thus reaffirms the need for further strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture.

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Trump Indicted

Author(s): Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

A Manhattan grand jury has indicted former U.S. President Donald Trump on 34 criminal charges brought by the New York District Attorney of falsifying business records. This is the first time in U.S. history that a former president has been indicted. While this case is purely criminal, it will be heavily politicised by Republicans and Trump himself. He has the best chance of winning the Republican Party nomination in the primaries, which start in February 2024.

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Lavrov Visits Latin America to Try to Lure It to Russia’s Side

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

On 17-21 April, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. During his trip, he argued that the goals and interests of Russia and most Latin American countries coincide. He also repeated false Russian narratives, for example, about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, portraying Russia as a victim of the policy of the West. While he used his stay in Brazil to legitimise the Russian narratives, in other countries, it was mainly about consolidating Russia’s ties with their authoritarian regimes, including cooperation on evading sanctions.

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Syria returns to the Arab League

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

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Türkiye Presidential Elections Go to Second Round

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Türkiye held presidential elections on 14 May, a contest between incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, opposition Table of Six leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and nationalist Sinan Oğan. Erdoğan came close to securing 50% of the vote guaranteeing victory, but ultimately a second round of voting will be held on 28 May to decide between him and Kılıçdaroğlu. In the parallel parliamentary elections, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners, with which it forms the ruling People’s Alliance, were successful. The votes of Oğan’s supporters in the next round will have the most impact on the outcome of the presidential election.

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Greece Votes in Early Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The pro-European, centre-right New Democracy party led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has led Greece since 2019, decisively won the early parliamentary elections on 21 May. However, the party will not form new cabinet but will seek new early elections, which will be held according to a new electoral law. New Democracy hopes that the result will enable it to govern on its own. The temporary political crisis and rule by a technical government will be short-lived and will not change Greek foreign policy.

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Zelensky Participates in the Arab League Summit

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 19 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the 32nd Arab League summit in Jeddah at the invitation of Saudi Arabia. In his address to the delegates, Zelensky focused on the Muslim Ukrainian community and building support for his peace plan. From a regional perspective, the visit was primarily intended to consolidate the role of Saudi Arabia as capable of shaping the foreign policy of all Arab states.

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What is the Significance of Prigozhin’s Revolt for Russian Security Policy?

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On the night of 23-24 June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group private military company, which has been fighting in Ukraine and operating elsewhere, stood up to the Russian Ministry of Defence and began an armed march on Moscow. However, in the end he and his forces did not storm the capital, officially as a result of negotiations led by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka. Prigozhin’s actions will worsen the morale of Russian soldiers and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine but will not change Russia’s hostile actions towards NATO countries.

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Prigozhin’s Revolt Holds Implications for the Putin Regime in Russia

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 23-24 June, Russia witnessed a military revolt by the Wagner Group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. This was the most serious crisis in the political system in Russia since the beginning of Putin’s presidency and weakened him. It will become increasingly difficult for him to act as an arbiter between factions competing for influence and to remain a guarantor of security for the power elite.

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