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Between EU Integration and Brain Drain.Croatia’s Challenges and New
Opportunities in Light of the Euro Adoption and Schengen Area Accession

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Between EU Integration and Brain Drain.Croatia’s Challenges and New Opportunities in Light of the Euro Adoption and Schengen Area Accession

Between EU Integration and Brain Drain. Croatia’s Challenges and New Opportunities in Light of the Euro Adoption and Schengen Area Accession

Author(s): Bernd Christoph Ströhm / Language(s): English / Issue: 01/2023

Keywords: croatia; eu intergration; brain drain; Schengen; Euro

Croatia’s path towards EU integration can be regarded as a success story in the Balkans, following the country’s independence which was finalised in 1995 after a bloody four-year war. Since the year 2000, Croatia has undergone a remarkable reform process, stimulated by the conditions for accession to the EU. With Croatia’s EU Schengen area accession and introduction of the euro, both in January 2023, the country managed to fully integrate into the EU – only 10 years after its EU membership. Nevertheless, the country still faces a multitude of issues, such as the proper diversification of its economy and a declining population rate. This paper shall outline and analyse opportunities and challenges, stemming from Croatia’s new currency regime, Schengen area accession and brain drain. It will also explore the country’s new role as an “energy hub” for the Western Balkan region and the EU, following Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

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The Relationship between 21st Century Skills of the Teachers and Teacher Autonomy

Author(s): Emrah Koçak,Ramazan Karatepe / Language(s): English / Issue: 04/2022

Keywords: 21st-century teacher skills; Teacher autonomy; Teacher;

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between teachers' 21stcentury teaching skills and their autonomy. The sample of the research, which was carried out with a relational survey design, consists of 297 teachers working in private and public schools in Mersin in the spring term of the 2020- 2021 academic year. The data of the study were collected using the "21stcentury teacher skills scale" and "teacher autonomy scale". In the analysis of the research data, t-test, ANOVA and Pearson correlation coefficient, which are parametric statistical techniques, were used. While it was found that the teachers’ autonomy differed significantly according to the education level worked, no significant difference was found in other variables, either in the 21st-century teacher skills scale or in the teacher autonomy scale. In addition, a positive relationship was revealed between 21st-century teacher skills and teacher autonomy.

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Evolutional Analysis of the Concept of Hegemony within the Perspective of International Political Economy Theories

Author(s): Betul Sari Aksakal / Language(s): English / Issue: 04/2022

Keywords: Hegemony; International Political Economy; Antonio Gramsci; Realism;

Over the past few decades, the international political economy has attained itself particular independence within the wider discipline of international relations step by step. The endeavors to figure out the determiners of the radical changes taking place in the world economy since the early 1970s have placed several special theoretical concepts in the focus of interest which directly associates with the international political economy. The concept of hegemony is one of them. Today, hegemony is one of the most discussed subject matters. Antonio Gramsci was an Italian Marxist intellectual, theoretician and politician who developed the concept of hegemony in the Prison Notebooks. Gramsci's writings made incontrovertible contributions to the understanding of hegemony within the context of Marxist thought and philosophy. However, in the historical process, lots of views and theories have been put forward regarding the concept of hegemony. Thus, the application of the concept in international political economy is widely contested and necessitates disambiguation. From this point of view, we have tried to analyze how the concept was handled by theorists belonging to different schools of thought in the international political economy literature. In all these respects, this article takes its point of departure in the multiplicity of characterizations of the concept of hegemony and fastens on elucidating a certain strand of conceptualising hegemony more closely

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The Relation Between Language Learning Strategies and Achievement of English Language Learners

Author(s): Ali CEYLAN / Language(s): English / Issue: 04/2022

Keywords: Language Learning; Skills; Strategy; Achievement;

This study aims to determine the students’ strategy preferences and to explore the relationship between the language learning strategies of the students and their academic achievement in language skills. The research was conducted with the participation of 405 (F=162, M=243) preparatory program students of a school of foreign languages at a state university in Turkey. In accordance with the purpose of the study, the Turkish version of the Strategy Inventory of Language Learning for English Language Learners Student Form (SILL-ELL Student Form) adapted by Ardeshava and Tretter (2013) was used to gather data. As a result, students use metacognitive and social strategies, among indirect strategies, more than other strategy categories. Further, it was found that students use strategies moderately and there is female superiority in using language learning strategies. In addition, some sub-categories of language learning strategies have an impact on achievement in skills and some measures of the language achievement test.

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Contributions of Local Governments to Education in Turkey and Necessary Precautions to Be Taken

Author(s): Fuat Uzun / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2022

Keywords: Education Financing; Local Administrations; Private Provincial Administrations; Law Number 6360;

With the effect of globalization, which started to rapidly engulf the world in the last quarter of the last century development and change in technological, sociological and economic fields and continuing with an increasing momentum; countries, organizations, institutions and organizations and their governing bodies are faced with situations that have never been encountered before. New social needs revealed by the increasing population with development and change; This complicates the work of administrators who want to centrally control all social systems in countries. Therefore; central governments had to transfer all or some of their duties and responsibilities to local governments. In developed and developing countries, decentralization policies have also been increasingly implemented in the field of education. These applications are; school management, financial support, programs, policies for students, and transferring authority and responsibilities to staff. In Turkey, local governments (municipalities and special provincial administrations) carry out the maintenance and repair of school buildings, facility construction, building and land allocation to schools within their areas of responsibility, in proportion to their budgets. In the research; By examining the education expenditures, policies and implementation results of the local governments of developed countries, suggestions were made regarding the improvement of the system in Turkey. The purpose of this research; As a result of the legal arrangements made, the contribution of local governments to the financing of education is compared with OECD countries and to develop proposals.

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The Effect of Instructional Leadership, Organizational Innovativeness, and School Hindering on Teachers’ Satisfaction at BILSEMs

Author(s): Ramazan Atasoy,Celalettin Ozden / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2022

Keywords: Gifted education policies; instructional leadership; organizational innovativeness; school hindering; teacher satisfaction;

In this research, it is aimed to reveal the direct and indirect relationships among instructional leadership, teachers’ job satisfaction, school hindering, and organizational innovativeness within the framework of the SEM model constructed in a cross-sectional survey design. The teacher’s opinions scale for BILSEMs was used as the data collection tool. In this study, ‘organizational innovativeness and school hindering’ were proposed as mediators of the relationship between instructional leadership and teachers’ job satisfaction. The results based on the analysis of responses from 357 teachers of 81 BILSEMs selected with the simple random sampling method revealed significant direct and indirect effects of instructional leadership on the teacher satisfaction via both organizational innovativeness and school hindering. In conclusion, instructional leadership is positively related to enhancing teachers’ job satisfaction, supporting and improving organizational innovativeness, decreasing school hindering through focusing on the school resources. The results of the research are expected to shed light on current and future innovative policies and reform initiatives about gifted education.

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The Conformity and Applicability of the 2023 Education Vision: An Analysis Based on Educators' Views

Author(s): Munube Yilmaz,İbrahim Hakan Karataş / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2022

Keywords: Academicians; 2023 VB; 2023 Education Vision; school administrators; teachers;

This study aims to examine the perceptions of principles, assistant principals, teachers, and academicians on the applicability of the policies included in the 2023 Education Vision Blueprint (VB) published by the Ministry of National Education (MEB) to improve the quality of education. Conducting phenomenological method as one of the qualitative research designs, the participants of the study consists of 68 principals, 70 assistant principals, 112 teachers and 13 academicians working in schools affiliated to the Ministry of National Education and the universities. Data were collected through the 2023 Vision Blueprint Evaluation Questionnaire developed by educational experts. Content analysis was used to evaluate the qualitative data and the and descriptive statistics were used to interpret the quantitative data. The results of the research show that most practitioners and academicians read 2023 VB but they did not attend any meeting related to the VB. Practitioners consisting of principals, assistant principals and teachers believe that VB meets needs of today's education system while academicians are more likely to have negative opinions on this subject. The study concluded that the perception of the participants regarding the implementation of 2023 VB as planned is low excepts for assistants and assistant principles. By comparing perceptions and views of school administrators, teachers, and academicians, this research will make important contributions to the current literature on 2023 VB to develop and implement effective educational policies.

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THE IDEA OF THE UNIVERSITY IN MODERN CHALLENGES

ІДЕЯ УНІВЕРСИТЕТУ В СУЧАСНИХ ВИКЛИКАХ

Author(s): Olga Dolska,Tetiana Mikolaivna Dyshkant / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: university; university mission; crisis in education; university models; globalization and deglobalization; Modernity crisis;

The article, exploring the genesis of the idea of the university, reveals how its value bases and mission have changed over time. The fate of the University as a social institution is inextricably linked with society and bears the imprint of the transformations taking place in the social environment. In relation to the University in the modern world, the existence of a serious crisis is universally stated and, as shown in the article, it is associated with the processes of globalization, the establishment of market fundamentalism and postmodern culture.

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THE SIGNIFICANCE OF LEGAL PRAGMATISM AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE LAW FOR THE THEORY OF ADJUDICATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF SOCIAL LIFE

ЗНАЧЕННЯ ЮРИДИЧНОГО ПРАГМАТИЗМУ ТА ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО АНАЛІЗУ ПРАВА ДЛЯ ТЕОРІЇ УХВАЛЕННЯ СУДОВОГО РІШЕННЯ В УМОВАХ СУСПІЛЬНОГО ЖИТТЯ

Author(s): Hanna Kovalenko / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: adjudication; legal pragmatism; economic analysis of law; contextualism; anti-fundamentalism; instrumentalism; perspectivism; descriptive theory;

The views and ideas of thinkers and actors representing the direction of legal pragmatism and economic analysis of law, whose ideas had the greatest influence on the world philosophical and legal thought and the formation of the philosophical and legal views of judges, are considered. The interaction between the directions of legal pragmatism, economic analysis of law and the formation of judicial philosophy is shown. The highlighted role and significance of legal pragmatism and economic analysis of law for the development of the philosophy of justice, which should be in constant contact with current events and problems, thanks to which it would ensure its leading role in the development of legal theory and practice, through the influence on modern legal thought, in conditions of modern society.

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Interest Charges and the “Said” Ageing-related Expenditures: A Study of OECD Countries

Author(s): Zapji Ymélé Aimé Philombe Zapji Ymélé Aimé Philombe / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: Ageing; pensions; health care; interest charges;

Purpose: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the interest charges on public debt could be a threat for the "said" ageing expenditures. This study attempts to analyze the effects of debt burdens known as interest charges in relation to the pensions and health care spending. The "said" ageing expenditures since the debate on this issue doesn’t allow us to say that these expenses are totally linked to ageing. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducts an ordinary least squares analysis based on panel and cross-sectional data covering the period 2000-2020. The data are extracted from OECD statistic and from Eurostat statistic database. The research performs an analysis on 33 OECD countries.The dependents variables are pensions and health care spendings on GDP. The key independent variable is the interest charges. Other additional variables are included in the analysis that we can find in the text. Findings: The results of this study remain ambiguous and call for further study. Nevertheless, based on the current data, there is every reason to believe that, at present, expenditures on interest charges would not crowd out spending on pensions and health care. However, the significance of the demographic variables (old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio), and the increase in these ratios in the projections, point to a potential risk of collapse of the pension and health care systems. Research limitations/implications: The main difficulty encountered in this study was the collection of empirical literature dealing with our topic. Many papers used in our empirical literature was not always in relation with the topic of our research. Our challenge was to create the relation with those analyses to propose something original. Originality/value: We propose an innovative study, by proposing the analysis of debt charges in relation to pensions and health care expenditures. Several approaches in the same direction have used other parameters to analyze the costs of ageing, notably the debt to GDP ratio. We integrate other demographic variables such as the dependency ratio, macroeconomic indicators such as the savings rate. All these elements constitute the originality of our study.

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Modifications on Book-Valued Ratios

Author(s): Catherine Georgiou / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: book-market ratio; modified book-market ratio; book-valued ratios; non-stationary ratios; modified ratios; return predictability;

Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios. First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its construction so as to enhance its performance. We then run the extra mile by constructing two new ratios, the book-dividends and book-earnings ratios based on the long-run equilibrium relationships between book, dividends and earnings. Our analysis includes evidence of predictability on dividend and earnings growth rates on the S&P 500 for the most recent sample period 1926-2018. We also investigate the ratios’ forecastability by sub-sampling. Design/methodology/approach: We commence our analysis with the conventional book-market (bm) ratio and by failing to reject the hypothesis of a unit root, we propose the modified book-market (mbm) ratio, whose construction is based on the long-run equilibrium relationship between book (b) and market (m) values. We proceed on associating book values to dividends and earnings series and fix the book-earnings (be) and the dividend-book (db) ratios. We similarly modify be and db, and examine their forecasting performance on returns, dividend and earnings growth. Findings: In-sample evidence suggests that an investor who employs mbm can improve its forecasts by 37% and 41% in the 7- and 10-year return horizon, while the modified dividend-book (mdb) proves even more beneficial by explaining 53% and 59% in similar return horizons. Our modified book-earnings (mbe) has a very good in-sample fit to the earnings growth data unlike the rest of the predictors. With respect to the out-of-sample performance, mbm manages to surpass the simplistic forecast benchmark only at the 10-year horizon by 15% while mdb attains an impressive of 47% and 71% at the 7- and 10-year return horizon. Research limitations/implications: Further research is required so as to solve the earnings puzzle in terms of forecasting along with the necessity to understand the economical sources behind non-stationarity in valuation ratios. Originality/value: We believe that our paper may prove enlightening to investors focused on portfolio allocation and asset pricing and scholars interested in return forecasting, capital budgeting and risk identification.

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ARDL Analysis of Remittance and Per Capita Growth Nexus in Oil Dependent Economy: The Nigeria’s Experience

Author(s): Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi,Mishelle Doorasamy,Udi Joshua,Grace Gift Rotimi,Gabriel Samuel,Gbenga Adeyemi,Ayodele Solomon Alemayo,Alfred Kimea,Comfort Omolayo Rotimi / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: Remittances; Per Capita; ARDL; Growth; Oil Dependent, Nigeria;

Purpose: Remittance is essential to economic wellbeing. Realising this fact, this study examined, within the optimist theoretical framework, whether international remittances significantly impact per capita economic growth in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach: Employing annual time series data spanning 1980-2020, the study adopted the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith ARDL bounds estimating model to examine the type of relationships between remittances and Nigeria’s per capita growth. Finding: The study reveals a statistically significant positive nexus in the long-run and short-run among the variables. Specifically, it found that higher remittances inflow enhances per capita growth both in long-run and short-run in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that remittances are sources of external financing and eventually, it is a means to economicgrowth and also may help to fill fiscal deficit gap. Research limitations/implications: This study recommends that government should, through sound policy option, encourage remittances influx. This could be realised by creating viable relationship among international communities that largely account for remittance inflow into Nigeria. It further suggests a prudent and optimal management of remittances inflow through the appropriatemonetary authority. This may include formulating policy that will ease remittance inflow and remove unnecessary barriers to inflow of remittances. Originality/value: The study contributes to literature by examining whether international remittances within the optimist theoretical framework significantly impact per capita economic growth (PCEG) in Nigeria.

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Assessment of the Deadweight Loss Arising from the Imperfect Competition in the Banking Market

Author(s): Kristaps Freimanis,Maija Šenfelde,Vytautas Juščius / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: Banking market; deadweight loss; imperfect competition; market regulation; model construction; regulatory economics;

Financial market failures lead to the deadweight (welfare) loss for the society. Assessment of the deadweight loss started with so called the Harberger Triangles, where Harberger offered a clear and persuasive derivation of the triangle method of analyzing the deadweight loss and applied the method to estimate deadweight losses due to income taxes in the United States. Hertog further put the deadweight loss into the model with government intervention to assess the optimal level of welfare loss control. This concept is central in regulatory economics. Harberger’s approach is based on the deviation of market equilibrium measured in terms of price and quantity. When analyzing the imperfect competition as one of the market failures authors have identified in the literature variables for “price” and “quantity”. Research presents the approach how to calculate the deadweight loss arising from the imperfect competition using the following variables: “price” – interest rates (loans), “quantity” – exposure of loans on banks’ balance sheets. Outcome of the research is the integral for assessment of the deadweight loss arising from the imperfect competition. Deadweight loss calculations for selected countries show results corresponding to the expectation to be lower than 12% - maximum value is 4,6% for Latvia, which experienced the most significant increase in the banking market concentration from the sample. Research methods used: literature analysis, regression analysis, mathematical analysis tools (integrals).

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Modelling Stock Market Prices Using the Open, High and Closes Prices. Evidence from International Financial Markets

Author(s): Samuel Tabot Enow / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: Modelling stock price; Bayesian Model; Stock market; Financial markets; VAR;

Purpose: Modelling security prices seem to be an ending debate in finance literature due to no clearconsensus on behavioral patterns. Knowledge of stock price movement has always been an important source of information that is much needed in asset pricing and trading strategies. The aim of this study was to model stock market prices using six international markets as a sample. Design/methodology/approach: This study made use of the Bayesian Time-Varying coefficient for a five-year period from January 2, 2018, to January 2, 2023. Finding: The findings of this study revealed that there is strong empirical evidence that the returns of a security can be modelled using the open, high and low prices. Research limitations/implications: This implies that the drift in stock price movement can be better explained by observing the lag values of the open, high and low prices which may be an important tool for short term traders and incorporated in volatility estimation. Also, the lag values of the open, high and low price movements explain more than 98% of changes in the closing price. Originality/value: As per the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to model stock market prices using the open, high and low prices for multiple international markets.

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Good practices in inter-institutional collaboration in managing the migrant crisis

Author(s): Rasa Smaliukienė,Vidmantė Giedraitytė,Ingrida Grincevičiūtė,Svajūnė Ungurytė-Ragauskienė / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: inter-institutional collaboration; national defence system; internal affairs system; good practice; crisis management; illegal migration; Lithuania-Belarus border;

In 2021, Lithuania faced the challenge of managing the crisis of new type of migration across the Belarusian border, which threatened the security of the country and its citizens. A broad set of inter-institutional collaboration strategies and methods were used among the public institutions to address this crisis. Such inter-institutional collaboration has been a multifaceted and complex process, involving both known and new good practices. The aim of this article is to provide insights into good collaborative practices between the Lithuanian national defence and internal affairs systems in managing the migrant crisis. Following the expert interview results, the study identified three good practices of inter-institutional collaboration: (i) the creation of a single dissemination channel for the crisis response services, which ensured that all actors were in the same information field; (ii) the delegation of representatives of the institutions to teams at strategic, operational and tactical levels; and (iii) inter-institutional information sharing ensured good situational awareness at an early stage of emergency management. Lessons learned from the collaboration between the institutions of the national defence and internal affairs systems can be applied to improve inter-institutional collaboration in other areas. The results of the research can be used to enhance the process of such collaboration in addressing current emergency management issues and serve as a basis for effective and smooth emergency preparedness and response where inter-institutional synergy is needed.

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Bank Capital Buffers and Bank Risks: Evidence from the Namibian Banking Sector

Author(s): Johannes P S Sheefeni / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: Bank; Capital Buffers; Bank Risk; Namibia; ARDL; Procyclical; Countercyclical;

Purpose: This paper analysed the effects of bank’s risk on capital buffer in Namibia, in the absence of the consensus on the cyclical behavior of capital buffers. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique on quarterly data for the period 2001 to 2019. Findings: The study found the following: First, there is a long run relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Second, the study showed that the ratio of NPLs to gross total loans negatively affect capital buffers in the short run, while it positively affects capital buffers in the long run. Furthermore, return on assets and liquidity negatively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. On the contrary, bank size in form of log of total loans positively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. Research limitations/implications: The unavailability of data of a long-term span is not desirable. Moreover, the limited data of certain variables narrowed the choice of a variety of variables that could be included in the study. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the hypothesized theory of countercyclical. The policy implication from these findings is that the presence of countercyclical relationship is in support of the transition from Basel II to Basel III to mitigate the procyclical as experienced under Basel II accords as documented in the literature. Future studies should focus on using a variety of variables to assess this relationship and see whether or not the outcome will be different.

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Assessing the Mediating Effect of the Role of Public Managers between Service Quality and Public Satisfaction of Various Ethnicities in Local Governments in Sumatra, Indonesia

Author(s): Dasman Lanin,Boni Saputra,Syamsir Syamsir,Lince Magriasti / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: public service quality; role of public manager; public satisfaction; Sumatran ethnic;

An excellent quality of public services is a way to improve the public satisfaction index. The public will be satisfied if the performance of public services tends to be higher than community expectations. Multi-ethnic Indonesia has different perceptions about the quality of public service. Thus, in this case, this study aims to see the effect of service quality on public satisfaction through the role of public managers in the tourism sector of various ethnic groups in Sumatra, Indonesia. This research is an associative quantitative study conducted on people of multiple ethnicities. Determination of the sample using the Cluster Random Sampling technique and continued with convenience sampling. The sample of this research is 1,499 respondents. The Likert scale questionnaire, previously tested for reliability and validity regarding content and empirical test items, was used for data collection in the field. The collected data was then analysed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) Analysis Moment of Structural (AMOS) statistics and continued with the Sobel test. The literature study also supports data collection. The study’s results prove a significant direct effect between service quality variables and the role of public managers on satisfaction. Moreover, this analysis found that service quality variables indirectly impact satisfaction through the manager’s role. Thus, the research results provided evidence that the research model can be utilised as an academic reason to strengthen the theories and models that have been reviewed in this research study.

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Policy Dynamics in Contemporary Public Administration Studies: A Conceptual Analysis

Author(s): Prakoso Bhairawa Putera,Ida Widianingsih,Sinta Ningrum,Suryanto Suryanto,Yan Rianto / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: public administration; policy dynamics; historical institutionalism; policy change; policy evolution;

This paper aims to provide an overview based on the literatures regarding the development of the study of policy dynamics research in the field of public administration. The study aims to answer the research question, „What is the theoretical and conceptual framework of „policy dynamics“ in the contemporary discourse of current public administration?“. The method used is a bibliometric analysis and semi-systematic literature review in the form of a literature review of international publications published between 1990 and 2020, sourced from the Google Scholar database. The sixty articles that are most relevant in terms of Article title, Abstract, and Keywords (journal articles: 55 papers and Conferences proceedings: 5 papers) are chosen for analysis. As a result, policy dynamics can be grouped into three categories: policy dynamics as historical institutionalism, policy dynamics as policy change, and policy dynamics as policy evolution. This study concludes that policy dynamics is the evolution of policy changes, where these changes have implications for the policies of a regime/government on institutions, actors, and systems within a certain period. This concept manifests in the five new clusters in the definition of policy dynamics, which include regime/government change, institutional change/transformation, changes in issue, direction and content of policy, actor's role and existence, and policy object inputs and outputs.

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Price Prediction for Bitcoin: Does Periodicity Matter?

Author(s): Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo,Akande Joseph Olorunfemi,Adekunle Ahmed Oluwatobi / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2022

Keywords: Bitcoin; Diebold‐Mariano test; Univariate forecast models; Forecast accuracy;

Purpose: A major challenge traders, speculators and investors are grappling with is how to accurately forecast Bitcoin price in the cryptocurrency market. This study is aimed to uncover the best model for the forecasts of Bitcoin price as well as to verify the price series that offers the best predictions performance under different periodicity of datasets. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts three different data periods to verify whether frequency matters in forecasting Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin price, from 01/01/15 to 11/01/2021, is trained and validated on selected forecast models, including the Naïve, Linear, Exponential Smoothing Model, ARIMA, Neural Network, STL and Holt-Winters filters. Five forecast accuracy measures (RSME, MAE, MPE, MAPE and MASE) are applied to confirm the best performing model. The Diebold‐Mariano test is used to compare the forecasts based on the daily price with those based on the weekly and monthly. Findings: Based on the accuracy measures, the results indicate that the Naïve model provides more accurate performance for the daily series, while the linear model outperforms others for the weekly and monthly series. Using the Diebold‐Mariano statistics, there is evidence that forecasting Bitcoin price is not sensitive to the data periodicity. Research limitations/implications: The study has a major limitation, which is the shared sentiment to apply actual Bitcoin price series, and not the returns or log transformation for the forecast models. Notably, actual data may sometimes be loud, hence increasing the possibility of over predictions. Originality/value: In forecasting, different approaches have been used, this paper compares outputs of both statistical and machine learning methods in order to arrive at the best option for the Bitcoin price forecasts. Hence, we investigate whether the machine learning tools offer better forecasts in terms of lower error and higher model’s accuracy relative to the traditional models.

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Problematisation of Parental Alcohol Abuse Related Harm to Children: The Results of Professionals’ Response

Author(s): Birutė Peištarė,Ilona Tamutienė / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2023

Keywords: alcohol; harm to children; parents; children; professionals’ responses; problematisation;

Problematisations as taken-for-granted “truths” practices making it crucial to look at them critically and to draw attention to any potentially harmful consequences they may have. The main aim of this article is to examine how the issue of parental alcohol’s harm to children is problematised in the child protection and support processes in Lithuania. Data from 20 semistructured interviews with key child welfare and protection experts were analysed using Bacchi’s problematisation approach strategy. Professionals think that parental intoxication is damaging to children, and because of the issues they perceive, most of their work is focused on measures to enhance parental behaviour. This approach to the problem distances professionals from the harm that children are experiencing. It is typical to remove children from intoxicated parents and re-unite them once the parents sober up. Professionals rely on their own moral principles and ideals, particularly the desire to maintain “family unity”. Long-term harm develops when children who need support are undervalued and neglected. Because child welfare practices focus on a small portion of the problems, the harm to the children’s personalities and development is not adequately addressed. Analyses showed that the problematisation of parental alcohol abuse-related harm to children by professionals impacts the presumed result, which is that children are the “visible but unprotected victims”. The professional field of problematisation of alcohol’s harm to children brought on by parental alcohol misuse must consider crucial elements such as understanding childhood trauma and its long-term effects on child development, knowing how to respond to it when it occurs, and understanding how to avoid harmful long-term consequences.

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