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Crisis in Turkmenistan. A test for China’s policy in the region

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkmenistan; China

The currency crisis, caused by the collapse in gas prices, has turned into the most serious social and political crisis in the history of Turkmenistan. The government in Ashgabat has passed the burden of the economic problems onto the population, suspending the convertibility of the manat and dismantling the extensive social security system. The drastic reduction in the standard of living of Turkmenistan’s population has undermined the stability of the regime. The depletion of Turkmenistan’s foreign exchange reserves could bring an end to the monumental state investment programme which – together with the social security system – is the main source of the regime’s legitimacy. The current dynamics of the crisis are fully dependent on China, the sole recipient of Turkmenistan’s gas (receiving more than 90% of total gas exports) and Ashgabat’s main creditor. The terms of the Chinese-Turkmen contracts (apparently linking gas prices with oil prices) is leading to a drain of Turkmen resources and reducing the inflow of foreign currency. China may be faced with the need to stabilise the economy of Turkmenistan. In the absence of any rescue actions, there is a considerable risk of the collapse of the Turkmen state. However, any greater involvement by China could mean a violation of the Chinese-Russian modus vivendi in the region. Moscow could take advantage of the crisis to rebuild its influence in Ashgabat, and include Turkmenistan within its own political integration projects within the region, resuming gas cooperation and offering military assistance to stabilise the regime.

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A revolution in instalments. Whither Pashinyan’s Armenia now?

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Whither Pashinyan; Armenia

In mid-August, a hundred days passed since Nikol Pashinyan took office as Armenia’s Prime Minister, which is an office of key importance for the Armenian political system. Formerly an opposition MP, Pashinyan rose to power as a result of a bloodless revolution. He replaced Serzh Sargsyan, whose camp had ruled Armenia for the last two decades. The country’s domestic situation is stable and its economy is growing. However, the parliamentary majority and significant business assets remain in the hands of the old elite, which considerably reduces the present leadership’s room for manoeuvre.

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The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia – circuses instead of bread?

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: FIFA; World Cup; Russia

The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia has become the most expensive World Cup in history, with its cost standing at more than US$ 13 billion. Russia gained new sports, transport and tourist infrastructure, and nearly 3 million foreign tourists came to the country to attend the matches. However, the investments and revenues connected with the tournament will have a minor impact on Russia’s GDP growth rate; at best they may contribute to an acceleration in the development of those regions (particularly the less affluent ones) that hosted the World Cup events. Predictably, the main beneficiary from the tournament’s organisation was President Putin’s business environment : companies controlled by Putin’s cronies won the main tenders for the construction of sports and transportation facilities.

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Gas revolution? Prospects for increased gas production in Ukraine

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: gas; gas production; Ukraine

For a number of months now the Ukrainian gas mining sector has been undergoing a major overhaul to improve the conditions in which it operates, with a view to significantly increasing production. The most important reforms include lowering tax rates and deregulation. These changes are a result of the government’s gas sector development plan for Ukraine, approved in 2016. Under this programme, the amount of gas extracted is to increase from the current 20 bcm to 27 bcm by as soon as 2020. Combined with greater energy efficiency, this would enable Ukraine to become self-sufficient in terms of its gas supply, and even to export gas in subsequent years. Because Ukraine has traditionally been dependent upon imports, and due to the political importance of gas-related issues, this course of events would be strategically important and have implications for energy relations in the entire region.Government forecasts showing an increase in gas extraction in such a short time may not be very realistic, but it does seem likely that in the next few years production could reach a level rendering Ukraine independent of imports. Ukraine has large gas reserves of hitherto untapped potential (the third largest in Europe). Meanwhile, this development can only occur if reforms within the mining sector, a reduction in corruption, an influx of foreign investment, and political stability are all in place.

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Historic unification of Ukrainian Orthodox Church

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian Orthodox Church; newly founded church; unification of church structures; election of superior; conflicts within Ukraine;Ukrainian-Russian relations;

On 15 December in Kyiv, the Orthodox Church General Council of the Metropolis of Kyiv, which is subordinate to the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople, was convened. The attendees approved the statute presented by the Ecumenical Patriarch, and elected Metropolitan Epiphanius (bishop of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate, UOC-KP) to be its superior. Epiphanius will be granted the tomos, giving the Metropolis of Kyiv autocephaly (canonical independence), in Istanbul on 6 January 2019. The newly founded church will be called the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, thus commencing the process of unification of the church structures of three Ukrainian orthodox churches: the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate, the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (UAOC), and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which recognises the primacy of the Moscow Patriarch. For the moment the number of priests and faithful of the Patriarch of Moscow that will move to the new Metropolis of Kyiv is not clear. The convening of the general council and election of the superior of the united church will not necessarily bring to an end the split within Ukrainian orthodoxy. This is merely the beginning of a complicated process that could trigger a series of conflicts within Ukraine and in Ukrainian-Russian relations. The convening of the Kyiv council is a success for Petro Poroshenko, who agreed the granting of the tomos last spring with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew in person. This will be a success actively exploited for the purpose of the presidential election campaign (31 March 2019), but does not guarantee that he will go through to the second round, let alone achieve ultimate victory.

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A stalemate in the US–China trade negotiations: the tariff war and technology sanctions

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States of America; China; American-Chinese relations; trade negotiations; tariff war; technology sanctions; bilateral trade; economic conflict; embargo on Huawei; global economy;

The first fortnight of May 2019 saw a major escalation in the Chinese–American trade dispute, in which additional tariffs on around 40% of bilateral trade were imposed and the US introduced an embargo on the Chinese technology company, Huawei. This new phase in the economic conflict between China and the US ends the five month long period of relative de-escalation and intensive negotiations on a framework trade agreement, initiated during the meeting in December 2018 between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. Unlike during the previous breakdown in the negotiations in May 2018, which resulted in a freeze on contacts, both sides have announced their willingness to continue the dialogue on the trade deal. However, continued escalation of the dispute (for example, over Huawei) is leading to a gradual sharpening of both sides’ rhetoric and a toughening of their stances as regards the conditions for recommencing the talks. The present phase of the conflict has revealed deep discrepancies in issues of fundamental importance for the future of the negotiated deal, including the mechanisms for ensuring its enforcement, in addition to the circumstances and dates in which the current punitive tariffs could be lifted. The prolonged stalemate in the negotiations may cause the US to resume its tactic involving a gradual stepping up of its pressure on China, which in turn will translate into a downturn in the global economic situation and Washington’s increased political pressure on its allies as regards their cooperation with China.

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End of the grand coalitions. German political parties before the European Parliament elections

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; German politics; political coalitions; European Parliament elections; European Union; government;

Both German politicians and commentators have been talking about the extraordinary importance of the forthcoming European Parliament elections for the future of the EU. The expected decline in support for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, combined with the gains expected for parties opposed to European integration, will lead to major changes in the way the parliament functions, and of the EU as a whole. The two largest European parties will probably not be capable of forming a stable coalition, and this in turn could affect who takes up the chief posts in the EU. The results of the European elections could have repercussions for the ability of the grand coalition in Berlin to survive, and decisions regarding individuals in the CDU and SPD. For the German parties, this election is also the most important test before the autumn elections in three eastern federal Länder – in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thüringen. In addition, on 26 May, at the same time as the European elections, elections will be held for seats in the regional parliament in Bremen. For the SPD, loss of power in this federal state would present a major challenge, because the Social Democrats have been in power there for 74 years. More severe conflict and debate can be expected as to whether the CDU/CSU and SPD are to continue ruling collectively. If a minister of justice from the SPD wins a seat in the EP, this could lead to changes in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. It is possible that a reshuffle of Angela Merkel’s cabinet would involve appointment of CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

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The shades of German anti-Semitism

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; German cities; anti-Semitism; Jews in Germany; migration of Jews; right-wing extremists; discrimination;

The streets of Germany’s biggest cities are increasingly witnessing frequent anti-Semitic incidents. Despite the fact that Germany regards the fight against anti-Semitism as part and parcel of its domestic policy, in recent years Jews living in Germany have reported that they feel under threat, to such an extent that 44% of them are considering migration. Debates on the presence of ‘imported anti-Semitism’ among refugees from Arab states who have come to Germany in recent years have been held for several months. Anti-Semitism among asylum seekers is a new element in the dispute that has been evident in Germany over the attitude of specific parties to anti-Semitism and methods for combating it. Both Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party are accused by other parties of insufficient efforts to eliminate instances of anti-Semitism in their ranks. The AfD, for its part, accuses Chancellor Angela Merkel of having contributed to an increase in xenophobic tendencies by pursuing a liberal migration policy. Significant differences between the statistics concerning incidents (which suggest that the perpetrators are most often right-wing extremists) and the accounts given by the victims (who point to individuals of migrant origin as the perpetrators) have triggered doubts regarding the methodology used to compile these statistics. Attempts by the Federal Ministry of the Interior to monitor anti-Semitic incidents, which is a practice recommended by non-governmental organisations, may help to improve the credibility of the statistics by showing the motivation behind such attacks in a broader context. Activities carried out by the federation and by individual German states focus on curbing anti-Semitism on the internet and in schools, which is where incidents involving discrimination and attacks are becoming increasingly common.

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The consequences of Brexit for the UK’s security policy and NATO’s eastern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; Brexit; NATO; security policy; security and defence; military policy; armed forces; peacekeeping operations;

Regardless of how the UK leaves the European Union and what final timetable it adopts, Brexit has influenced the British debate on security policy, and may have implications for Britain’s involvement in NATO’s defence and deterrence strategy towards Russia. The United Kingdom plays an important role on NATO’s north-eastern flank. London has deployed British troops to the NATO battlegroups in Estonia and Poland, and it is expanding its military cooperation with Norway in securing the maritime areas of the North Atlantic. The UK has also bolstered its military presence in Romania. After leaving the European Union, London will still be involved in the security of Northern and Central & Eastern Europe. However in the future, Britain’s strong military footprint on NATO’s eastern flank may be challenged by the increased activity of British armed forces beyond Europe as part of the ‘Global Britain’ concept, or by a change in the priorities of Britain’s security policy by the Labour Party, which wants to focus to a greater degree on global threats and the UN’s peacekeeping operations.

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Zelenskiy: Anatomy of a success

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukraine; politics; reforms; governance; development of the state; migration of Ukrainians; presidential elections;

The political situation in Ukraine since the ‘revolution of dignity’ and the Russian aggression has created a specific social context in which the public’s perception of the traditional politicians has started to deteriorate dramatically. The revolution awakened high public expectations of comprehensive reforms to the state, a new quality of governance, and the empowerment of society. However, 2014’s presidential and parliamentary elections led to only a minor turnover of the political elites, and the most important positions in the state were taken by politicians whose positions & ideas were formed in the 1990s when the oligarchic system in Ukraine was created. The reforms during the first two to three years after the revolution, which were mainly implemented under pressure from Western donors and civil society, failed to meet the public’s needs. Not only did they not lead to an improved quality of life, but they actually led to a decline and the emigration of around two million people, thus becoming an additional burden on the ‘old-new’ elite. Painful reforms, initiated but unfinished, and increasing political instability exacerbated the public’s already critical attitudes towards the political class. Just before the presidential elections, only 23% of respondents expressed trust in the president, 12% in parliament, 19% in the government, 12% in the courts, and 15% in the prosecutor’s office (poll by the Razumkov Centre in Kyiv). The huge distrust of state institutions and politicians resulted in a search for ‘new faces’, people from outside the establishment who were not disgraced, who were untainted by corruption and could meet the public’s diverse expectations. In the initial stage of the campaign, the Ukrainian people had a choice between two such people: Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, the leader of the popular rock band Okean Elzy, and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the comedian and actor. However, the former’s reluctance to announce his candidacy increased support for the latter, which only accelerated after Zelenskiy’s formal announcement at the turn of 2019 that he would run in the elections. In this way Zelenskiy become a major contender in the presidential race, and won the first round of elections.

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The northern tandem. The Swedish-Finnish defence cooperation

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Northern tandem; Swedish-Finnish defence cooperation; security and defence; military policy; NATO; USA; bilateral defence relations; military personnel;

In response to the change in the security environment after 2014, militarily non-aligned Sweden and Finland are developing their defence cooperation with NATO and the USA and strengthening their bilateral defence relationship. Although a bilateral alliance is unlikely, the two states are suggesting that, were a situation of a conflict in the Nordic-Baltic region to occur, the hypothetical aggressor will need to take into account their cooperation and joint actions with NATO. The Northern Wind 2019 exercises carried out in March 2019, whose scenario includes the defence of northern Sweden, are a display of the interoperability of the Swedish and Finnish armed forces. However, the military synergy between Sweden and Finland is limited by the differences in their respective models of armed forces, years-long insufficient defence expenditure, and military personnel cuts.

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Are reforms unavoidable? Belarus’s economy facing a reduction of subsidies from Russia

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; reforms; economy; economic policy; economic development; economic relations with Russia;

2018 brought a continuation of the economic growth in Belarus which started in 2017 and which followed a period of recession that had lasted several years. This does not equate to a genuine improvement in the condition of the Belarusian economy, which is still based on ineffective methods of planning and management dating back to Soviet times. Independent Belarusian economists and foreign experts agree that Belarus is currently stuck in a lowgrowth trap of around 2–3% annually, which prevents it from catching up with other countries of the region. In addition, Belarus’s economic situation is aggravated by the fact that, since mid-2018, Russia has been increasing the rate at which it is reducing its subsidies. These subsidies are among the main drivers of economic growth and form the precondition of the stability of the Belarusian economy as a whole. Moscow is making its continued support for Belarus conditional on Minsk’s readiness to engage in genuine integration under the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which has formally been in place since 1999. As a consequence, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is now facing the challenge of either maintaining Belarus’s independence from Russia or losing at least a portion of Russian subsidies that currently account for 10% of Belarus’s GDP. An economic overhaul could be an alternative to the support Minsk receives from Moscow. However, the reforms implemented so far are limited and relate mainly to the IT sector as well as small and medium-sized companies. Fearing an excessive weakening of his system of power, in particular in the context of the upcoming presidential election, Lukashenka will continue to block more decisive actions, including the privatisation or closing of selected unprofitable state-controlled industrial plants. This means that Minsk will need to seek an agreement with Moscow despite the latter stepping up its demands. The price of this agreement will be Belarus’s increasing dependence of Russia.

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Serving politics. Television’s role in Ukraine’s presidential election

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; presidential elections; television; media; politics and communication; forming a public opinion; political parties;

Television plays a major role in the formation of public opinion in Ukraine. For 85% of the population, it represents their main source of information. By providing information about candidates in an election, their manifestos, and events surrounding election campaigns, television stations have a fundamental impact on the popularity of individual politicians and political parties, and their prospects of taking up senior posts. Online and press sources play a much smaller role in determining public opinion. Although the authorities in Kyiv have attempted to legislate to reform the media sector from 2014 onwards, the process of making the envisaged changes has come to a standstill. It has proven impossible to eliminate the problems that existed in the media prior to the Maidan revolution. The major television stations are still controlled by a small group of the wealthiest oligarchs, and are used by these oligarchs as vehicles for furthering their business and political agendas. The predominantly privately-owned media are highly dependent on the political and business relations between their proprietors and politicians. As a result of these ties, television stations under oligarch control have been engaging in measures to support or discredit particular candidates in the current presidential election campaign. Due to the importance and the part played by the media in shaping public attitudes, their influence over the outcome of the presidential election due to be held on 31 March will be considerable.

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US-German clash over international order and security. The consequences for NATO’s Eastern flank

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States; Germany; international order; security and defence; NATO; military cooperation; foreign policy;

This year’s Munich Security Conference has laid bare the differences in the US and German visions of international order and security in speeches given by Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Mike Pence. Germany fundamentally disagrees with the Trump administration both on the paradigm of inter-state strategic competition with China and Russia (and Iran) and on the redefinition of the political, economic and military terms of the alliance with Europe. Berlin, aware of the growing challenges to European and global order and security, rejects the American ‘peace through strength’ policy, but at the same time has failed to present any real alternative. Merkel’s defence of the multilateral approach and of the liberal international order (understood as shaping the policy with partners and allies, above all the USA, but also in dialogue with China and Russia) is not a viable alternative any more. Nor is developing comprehensive European strategic autonomy in the French spirit, independent of the United States. Berlin is still aware that the alliance with the USA form the foundations of German and European security and prosperity even if Washington is becoming an increasingly difficult partner and ally. Given the long-term domestic limitations that shape German foreign and security policy, it is difficult to expect any major change in Germany’s in-between course in the coming years. The continued disagreements between the two biggest allies over key security issues will present an increasing challenge to NATO’s Eastern flank countries.

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Russia behind bars: the peculiarities of the Russian prison system

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; prison system; Federal Penitentiary Service; penal policy; penology; prison culture; law; state apparatus;

Russia is among the countries with the highest number of prisoners. Hundreds of thousands of inmates are supervised by an elaborate apparatus of the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN). This extended system is used as a tool for exercising control over society and solidifying the system of power. At the same time, it impacts the process of how shared norms and values are being formed in Russian society, in connection with society’s frequent contact with the so-called prison culture. Due to the absence of a major overhaul of the prison service, whose institutions and code of conduct date back to the time of the Soviet Gulag, the prison system is an excellent example of pathologies that are also present in other elements of the Russian state apparatus. These include the poor state of infrastructure, endemic corruption and the primacy of informal rules over the rule of law, consent to harsh exploitation of working prisoners and the omnipotence of the coercion apparatus.

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Russia vis-à-vis Iran

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Iran; geopolitics; relations with United States; cooperation in Syria; Sunni extremism; strategic partners; Middle East;

Russia’s relations with Iran are almost entirely based on geopolitical assumptions. Both states are interested in weakening the position the United States holds in the region; both have a common enemy in the form of Sunni extremism. Combined with the successful cooperation in Syria, which is not devoid of elements of rivalry, these priorities make Russia and Iran strategic partners in the Middle East.

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A ‘last-minute’ transit contract? Russia-Ukraine-EU gas talks

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; European Union; gas transit; trilateral cooperation; transit contract; gas pipeline; transit route;

On 21 January another round of trilateral gas talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union was held in Brussels. This meeting mainly concerned the new Russian-Ukrainian transit contract; the transit contract currently in force between Gazprom and Naftogaz will expire as of 1 January 2020. During the meeting, European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič submitted proposals to the parties concerning the parameters of a new contract transit, but did not make them public. The meeting was the latest in this series of trilateral gas talks; the previous round was held in Berlin in July 2018. In Brussels Russia declared its willingness to conclude a new transit agreement, although it highlighted the need for the legal dispute between Naftogaz and Gazprom to be resolved before that could happen. The lack of success during the talks so far, the divergent interests of the various parties and the current political context suggests that a new contract transit will probably only be concluded by the late autumn or winter of this year, and possibly in the period immediately before the expiry date of the current contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom. It is also conceivable that the negotiations will be extended into 2020, and that meanwhile transit will take place on the basis of principles agreed in the short term, along the lines of the so-called winter packages in 2014 and 2015, something which would be very disadvantageous for Ukraine and the EU, but extremely convenient for Moscow. There is no reason to expect rapid progress in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations; they are proceeding in complicated conditions, including the ongoing political conflict between Kiev and Moscow, the numerous legal disputes between Naftogaz and Gazprom, the construction of new Russian export pipelines, the continuing fundamental reform of the Ukrainian gas sector, and finally a packed political calendar (for both Ukraine and the EU) in 2019. The negotiation process is also difficult because of the contradiction between the long-term interests of Ukraine, which wants to maintain its status as a key transit route for Russian gas in the long term, and Russia, whose strategic goal is to become independent of the Ukrainian transmission network.

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In the shadow of war. Ukraine’s policy towards internally displaced persons

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Ukraine; conflict; war; internally displaced persons; migrations; humanitarian issue; international aid;

The conflict in eastern Ukraine that has been going on for more than four years has resulted in one of country’s worst social crises. More than 10 000 people have now been killed, and more than 25 000 injured in the conflict. The destruction caused by war, a weak economy, and the spread of criminal activity in areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists have forced more than 2 million people to leave their place of residence, according to official figures. Approximately 1.5 million of these have moved to other regions in the country. Although there is every indication that the true number is lower, the scale and consequences of the problem mean that Ukraine is facing the greatest humanitarian crisis in its history. Although the authorities in Kyiv have expressed their resolve to solve the humanitarian issues and reintegrate the eastern regions into the rest of the country as soon as possible, the measures the state has taken have been inadequate and ineffective. The legal mechanisms devised to assist displaced persons are often discriminatory and sometimes unlawful. This failure to provide effective aid to displaced persons leaving the occupied areas has revealed not only that the administrative apparatus is ineffectual, but also that Ukrainian politicians are unwilling to take real measures to meet this challenge. In view of the ineffectiveness of state institutions, most of the support given to internally displaced persons is being provided by volunteers and by NGOs using international aid.

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Dilemma in Beijing: how to stifle protests and punish Hong Kong

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hong Kong unrest; China and Democracy;

The protests in the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong have been going on since March, and were triggered by a bill allowing extradition of inhabitants of the region to the People’s Republic of China. The demonstrations are organised by a decentralised coalition of democratic organisations, and many occur locally and spontaneously. Social media also play a major part in organisation and the reaching of decisions by a vote. During the summer, a number of demonstrations each attracted almost two million people. On 12 June, when a vote was due to be held regarding the extradition bill in the local legislative council, a crowd of ten or more thousand people blocked the town’s central district and caused the council meeting to be broken off. Police used teargas and rubber bullets on a large scale to disperse the crowd. The protesters reacted to the police’s actions by making five demands: (1) that the extradition act be revoked, (2) that an independent committee be set up to investigate cases of police brutality and abuse of power, (3) that the protests stopped being described as ‘rioting’, as this affects how the action taken by protesters is classified under the law, (4) a universal amnesty for protesters, and (5) that fully democratic and universal elections be introduced to appoint both the legislature and the region’s chief executive. Since then, protests in various forms have become part of daily life. Since July, some protesters have noticeably and progressively become more radical, with cases of violence and damage to property, and a boycotting of organisations that have links with Beijing. Peaceful protests are held by various professional groups, such as government clerks, lawyers, and medical professionals, a few times a week, and violent protests occurs after dark. At the beginning of the academic year on 1 September, a school strike broke out and an airport was blockaded. The largest demonstrations, which involved violence, occurred on 1 October, the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

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Cracks in the marble. Russians’ trust in Putin on the decline

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Regime popularity in Russia; Putin's ratings; Kremlin’s legitimacy ;

In 2018, a distinct downward trend began to emerge in public support for the Russian authorities – the president, government, and other political institutions. All opinion poll companies have recorded this decline, which applies not only to the authorities’ approval ratings, but also to their policies, including foreign policy, which has traditionally been an area in which the Kremlin has garnered popularity. The greatest losses have been seen in the ratings for Vladimir Putin, whose ratings have returned to the level recorded prior to the annexation of Crimea. For the first time since he has been in power, Putin has fallen behind the army, and in some cases the orthodox church as well, in the institutional opinion polls. || The falling support for the president and his policies is confirmation that “geopolitical successes” such as the annexation of Crimea are no longer a factor ensuring that the public stands behind the Kremlin. As the impression made by the geopolitical successes wears off, Russians are becoming more and more focused on domestic problems, above all the poverty resulting from a long-term decrease in real income. The event that triggered discontent and led to street protests was decisions made by the authorities that have been seen as unjust (such as raising the age of retirement). || Even though, seen objectively, the president’s ratings remain high, at approximately 60%, this downward trend, being a decrease of between ten and twenty percentage points, is a sign, under the Russian system, that the Kremlin’s legitimacy is fading. This system is largely based on a high level of support for Putin, while the other political institutions take a back seat. This change in the public mood is forcing the Kremlin to seek a new strategy, and at least partly concede to public demands. However, with little chance of the public’s expectations being met, it is unlikely that the decline in support for the authorities can be halted. Thus, the increasing deficiency in the Kremlin’s legitimacy means that the Kremlin is facing a difficult decision as to the policy to be followed from now on.

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