№153: How Can NATO Contribute to Ukraine and Georgia’s Border Security?
Author(s): Jeffrey Rathke,Daniel Szeligowski,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English
Keywords: Georgia; OTAN; NATO; Ukraine; Security; East Europe
Conflicts beyond NATO’s borders, such as the Russian occupation of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia and aggression in Ukraine, pose a threat to the security of NATO’s eastern flank states. Therefore, NATO’s ability to provide security to its members depends on the Alliance cooperating closely with its neighbours. In this respect, Ukraine and Georgia, both of which share borders with NATO members, are of special importance. NATO should build on the experience of its own members, and join ranks with the European Union in order to further support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia. Enhanced border security should be a key element of such partnerships.
№152: NATO in Libya: A Long-term Plan for Stability
Author(s): Paolo Quercia,Patrycja Sasnal,Julianne Smith,Kurt Volker / Language(s): English
Keywords: Libia; NATO; OTAN; Bezpieczeństwo; Bliski Wschód i Afryka Północna; Security
Never was there a better time for NATO’s involvement in Libya than now. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the only available option for a more stable future of the country. It has already shown it can deliver by defeating the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte, but without urgent support from the international community it may not be able to show more progress in providing security, reform and services to the Libyan people. Once it receives a request from the GNA, NATO can and should assist in SSR, border control and countering people-smuggling as there is no better placed actor to help Libya in this regard.
№151: EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles
Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; visa; Poland; European Union
In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.
№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election
Author(s): Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Bernie Sanders; Donald Trump; Hillary Clinton; Marco Rubio; Ted Cruz; elections
Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defence and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.
№148: Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; India; Japan; South Korea; ASEAN, Asia; East Asia
Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.
№147: Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Balcans; Bosnia and Hercegovina; Croatia; European integration; European Union
At the beginning of 2016, almost 13 years after the Thessaloniki declaration to integrate the Western Balkans into the European Union, Brussels is left with Croatia as a Member State, Montenegro half way, at best, to becoming one, Serbia with first negotiation chapters just opened, and half of the region with no clear prospect of membership. But the wait-and-see approach that the EU had been employing for a number of years towards the enlargement policy in the Balkans1has become even riskier in times of new international challenges. Among them, the ever-growing tensions between the West and Russia should, in particular, serve as motivation for the Union to look at enlargement in the Balkans from a geopolitical angle. Even if the Member States have in recent years shown less enthusiasm towards further rounds of enlargement, this should not discourage the EU institutions from undertaking an active role to revive the European integration process in the Balkans.
№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: ASEAN; Asia; South Asia; East Asia; Economy
The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
№133: Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland
Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Roderick Parkes / Language(s): English
Keywords: immigrants; Norway; Poland; migrations
The migration and refugee situation in Eastern Europe receives comparatively little attention in the EUfor a simple reason: the people displaced by the fighting in eastern Ukraine have tended to stay closeto home or travel to Russia rather than head to the European Union. But eastern migration deservesattention. Migration issues, including questions of population loss, diaspora loyalty and bordermanagement, are gaining real geopolitical significance across Eastern Europe. Moreover, the EU’stechnocratic efforts to leverage access to its labour markets in return for political reform in Ukraine,Moldova and Georgia are becoming increasingly politicised there. This paper therefore sets out somebasic data on the issue. It takes as its case studies the receiving countries Norway and Poland, bothlocated at the external border of the EU, EEA and Schengen zone and next to Russia, and pays specialattention to the question of border management, including small border traffic and migration control,looking particularly at the gender dimension of migration.
№132: Is Three a Crowd? The Kurds, Baghdad and Poland
Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: Iraq;Middle East; Poland;Kurdish;
The diplomatic conflict that exists between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdish RegionalGovernment impacts relations of both authorities at the international diplomatic level. As the case ofPolish-Iraqi relations demonstrates, meaningful and effective involvement with the KRG is obstructedand sometimes impossible because of the ongoing Baghdad-Erbil conflict and the continuous possibilityof the KRG seceding from Iraq. With the dynamics of Iraq changing post Maliki, it is important forthese diplomatic relations to change accordingly, both internally and externally, in order to protect theterritorial integrity of Iraq.
In the run up to the Paris climate negotiations, the multilateral community has decided that all countriesshould submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The INDCs represent eachcountry’s contribution to the collective effort against climate change....
№130: Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times
Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English
Keywords: Saakashvili; Georgia; Lithuania; Ukraine; corruption; government
Although it happens rarely, national governments, including those of EU countries, do sometimes hire foreign experts. In Ukraine, employing Georgians from former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration seems to be a logical move. His presidency’s biggest successes were the establishment of well-functioning police and an efficient fight against corruption, something both of which Ukraine badly needs. Other foreigners, including renowned experts such as Ukrainian American Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavičius, responsible for economic recovery, may be successful but face extremely difficult tasks. As all these figures are affiliated with the West in one way or another, their failure would be interpreted by pro-Kremlin media as a collapse of President Petro Poroshenko’s policies (perceived by Russia as a Western project).
№129: The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU
Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; European Union
During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found anally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe,speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthennational parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes orare merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanismsof inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would playvery well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it alsorequires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to bethe missing link.
№128: Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State
Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Syria;Kurdish; ISIS;
Turkey’s decision to open Incirlik airbase to the anti-IS coalition could offer a significant advantage inthe fight against the Islamic State, including cutting it off from outside supplies, and changing theregional parameters. However, statements from the U.S. and Turkey still contradict each other, andtheir divergent priorities could hamper their operational capacity. Turkey’s contribution to the coalitionmay potentially reduce cooperation between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) inthe anti-IS zone. In addition, the absence of a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK) and the domestic polarisation provide a permissible environment for potential provocationsthat may escalate the violence in Turkey, potentially diminishing its contribution. The U.S. and Turkeystill have to overcome their differences in order to become effective coalition partners.
№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4
Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; OTAN; Poland; Norway; cooperation
Both Norway and Poland have engaged in regional security and defence cooperation projects:NORDEFCO and the Visegrad Group (V4), respectively. Such initiatives are seen as a promisingmethod for reinforcing military capabilities in a time of deep cuts in defence budgets among the EUMember States. The record of NORDEFCO and the V4 remains, though, rather modest, particularlywhen compared to the ambitious declarations made at their beginnings. Both cooperation formatshave proved effective with regards to less-complicated projects, such as those involving militaryeducation, training or logistics. However, common procurement and real integration in some capabilityareas has turned out to be too difficult. Yet, these failures have helped to identify factors that maymake success more likely, and this result is shared by both NORDEFCO and the V4, despite thestructural differences between these two mechanisms of security governance.
№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS
Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English
Keywords: ISIS; Turkey; security; Middle East
Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.
Turkey’s dream of a hub. Ankara’s wartime gas policy
Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; Russia
Natural gas plays a key role in Turkey’s economy and energy sector, with the country’s gas consumption growing in recent years. At the same time, Turkey is fully dependent on imports of this resource, including large quantities from Russia. However, for years it has been implementing a policy of diversification, which has brought tangible results. Along this, it has been expanding its import infrastructure to diversify its gas supply sources and routes, for example by opening more LNG terminals; or by trying to start production of its own gas while curbing domestic consumption.
One year of war. Russia’s imperial maximalism versus Ukraine’s resistance
Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; war
A war that almost nobody expected has been ongoing for a year now. Although reports suggesting that Russia may be preparing for war had emerged at least several months prior to 24 February 2022, there was no consensus among politicians and experts on how these reports should be interpreted. The most popular interpretation argued that we were witnessing Russia putting political and psychological pressure on the West, a bluff applied by Moscow to force the West to agree to a profound revision of the security order, to Russia’s advantage.
Providing education TO Ukrainian refugee children in Hungary
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary;education;ukrainen;children
Within the framework of the project titled EDUA uainfo.hu – Information equality and knowledge-sharing communities in the access of Ukrainian refugee children to education" implemented by the Civil College Foundation (CCF) and the Civil Platform for Public Education (CPPE), our project team collected the information available on the topic and shared it on the uainfo.hu website, conducted a questionnaire-based survey among pedagogues and Ukrainian parents, organised a conference, online meetings and consultation sessions and participated in events held on the topic. This policy recommendation was prepared based on the experiences gained in the project, on the research results and on the overview of the international practice.
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