Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; DCFTA; East Europe; Economy
Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.
№144: The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward
Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; immigrants; European Union; EU
Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.
№143: Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors
Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; migration; EU; European Union
At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.
№142: Australia’s Asylum and Migration Policy: Lessons to Apply to the European Refugee Crisis
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Australia; migration; society
Australia has a long history of immigration, including accepting refugees. Over the years, it has developed mechanisms and instruments that aim not only to help people in need but also to provide for the country’s stability and prosperity. However, in recent years some elements of Australia’s refugee policy, especially its approach towards the so-called boat people, have come under fire. Nevertheless, the solutions implemented by Australia should be part of the EU’s efforts to find ones useful for dealing with its current migration crisis.
№141: Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy
Author(s): Victoria Bucătaru,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; economy; Chisinau
Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.
For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly aproper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance inDonbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assumethat military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed torepel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in adisadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and socialturmoil in Ukraine. To minimise the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S.should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and upholdthe Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the restof Ukraine.
№139: Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine
Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; help
Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance insupport of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Althoughmost of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to beset in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improvecoordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), whilethe Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reforms as a matterof urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focuson the most urgent needs.
№138: Who Are They? Two Profiles of Syrian Refugees
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: immigrants; Europe; Syria; society
Syrians constitute the biggest national group migrating to Europe in 2015, according to Frontex. Of allthe social diversity within a single society, two generalised profiles of a Syrian refugee can be inferredfrom available information: a poorer, rural worker based in camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, anda richer, middle-class professional living outside of refugee camps, recently migrating to Europe via theGreece and Western Balkans route. While Europe has so far received the best of the Syrian society,poorer Syrians may also be on the move without an immediate and substantial improvement ofeducational infrastructure and their legal labour market status in host countries.
№137: EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: India; European Union; international relations
The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.
№136: From Blame Game to Cooperation: EU-Turkey Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English
Keywords: Syria; Turkey; migration; immigrants
Turkey has generously opened its borders to some two million refugees fleeing the war in Syria. Butmost Syrians in Turkey live in limbo, some in dire conditions, and many have sought refuge in the EUsimply to subsist to survive. Preventing an uncontrolled flow of refugees to the EU requires addressingtheir destitute state and providing them with the possibility to flourish—a responsibility that both theEU and Turkey have avoided until now. At the same time, even with increased international funding,the refugee challenge may be beyond Turkey’s capacity. The EU’s recent response is a positive stepbut is unlikely to suffice in preventing further tragedies. The EU must adopt a genuine policy on thematter, taking into account the two dimensions of Turkey’s reality as both a host and transit countryfor refugees.
№135: AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey
Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English
Keywords: Kurdish diaspora; Turkey;AKP;
Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has giventhe impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has beenemploying a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snapelection. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging themain Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and haveresulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKPaims to win power in the next election at all costs.
№134: Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West
Author(s): Kamran Ismayilov,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English
Keywords: Azerbaijan;Caucasia; Russia
Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and theEuropean Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused itsEuropean partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in theframework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a“fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support toits arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku aredisplaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences ofthe crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for theprospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.
№112: Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway
Author(s): Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: migration; Norway; Poland
Between 2004 and 2014, the number of Poles in Norway grew tenfold. Poles have become the biggestminority in Norway, bringing economic benefits for both countries but also social challenges. Whereasthe effects of migration for sending and receiving countries differ, there are many areas in whichcooperation could bring mutual benefits. Such cooperation based on the respect of the fundamentalfreedom of EU citizens’ free access to the labour market should lead to better integration of migrants.However, the biggest challenge in this respect lies in embracing the diversity of flows occurring withinthe free movement framework, ranging from short term stays to permanent settlements.
№111: Towards China’s Great Power Diplomacy under Xi Jinping
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Asia; domestic policy; diplomacy
Under the fifth generation of leaders, a conceptual shift in China’s foreign policy is becomingabundantly apparent. Xi Jinping is more clearly jettisoning long-standing Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policydictum of “hide and bide,” calling for big power diplomacy and a great revitalisation of the Chinesenation. This is not merely rhetoric. China is becoming more active in its closest neighbourhood andAsia, and is expanding its influence worldwide. Apart from coining new diplomatic catchphrases to winhearts and minds, China is establishing new institutions as an alternative to the Western-led globalarchitecture, to reflect its ascendancy and normative power.
№110: Civil Society Networks in the EU Integration of
Author(s): Bojan Elek,Ljiljana Ubović,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Serbia; society; Balkans; democracy; domestic policy; Europe; European integration; European Union
Countries wishing to accede to the EU must involve civil society organisations (CSOs) actively in theprocess. In Serbia, in order to champion their effectiveness in cooperation with the government, theCSOs gathered in networks, and the three main, nationwide ones have proven to be of greatestrelevance. The National Convention on the EU covers all 35 negotiation chapters, the Sectoral CivilSociety Organisations group is involved in pre-accession funds distribution, while prEUgovor focusesexclusively on the hottest potato in the negotiations, which concerns chapters 23 and 24. Although ingeneral terms the legal basis and good practices for such collaboration are established, moreunderstanding of the government’s approach to the CSOs is needed in order to achieve visible benefits.
№109: Never Ending Crisis—Prospects for the Belarusian Economy
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Kacper Wańczyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Eastern Europe; economy; Europe; society
During 2014, the Belarusian economy experienced serious problems, which were deepened by thecrisis in Russia. Further deterioration of the economic situation in Russia and Belarus’ other tradepartners such as Ukraine mean that 2015 could be much worse. That is why the Belarusianauthorities need external financial support, although this need is still not forcing them to conductstructural reforms. Moreover, as presidential elections are planned for November, the president,Aliaksandr Lukashenka will traditionally try to postpone reforms and impose pro-social policies.
The conflict in Ukraine continues to attract global attention. Moreover, foreigners are also involved in actual combat in the eastern part of the country. Russians, be they soldiers or volunteers, are the dominant foreign group in the war zone. Others, mostly Europeans, constitute neither “NATO’s foreign legion” nor the “Donbass international brigades,” as their numbers likely do not exceed 300 on either side of the conflict. Interestingly enough, many of these European foreign fighters share common ideological roots, i.e., anti-Americanism, anti-liberalism, extreme nationalism, fascination with authoritarianism, rejection of European integration, but these do not, however, stop them from taking opposing sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They, as a group or as lone individuals, might constitute a threat to European security and must be closely monitored.
№107: Can Ukraine Mimic Poland’s Transition? The Limits of Its Latest Economic Changes
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; economy; Europe; Poland
Once again, Ukraine has a chance to transform its economic system and build a democratic capitalist one. It is tempting to say that Central European countries such as Poland in particular constitute a good pattern for Kyiv’s reforms. However, this time will be different in many respects, and simply re-running an older plan will not work.
№106: The Black Box of European Legislation: The Motivation (or Lack of It) behind Transparency in EU Policymaking
Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Commission; European Union; EU institutions; Europe; transparency
One of the political ambitions of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and his first vice-president, Frans Timmermans, is to push for more openness in European Union policymaking. However, the improvements they propose are substantially undermined by opaque decision-making procedures and the lack of consistency in EU institutional culture. The open-governance drive is also stymied by fears among the Member States that too much disclosure might diminish effective policymaking there. Yet, if the EU does not understand that it needs to present a unified approach to transparency vis-à-vis its citizens, it will never evolve into a genuine political union.
№105: Governance of the Free Movement of EU Citizens: Weathering the Storm of Politicisation
Author(s): Alex Lazarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Migrations; Europe; European Union; international cooperation; Norway; Poland
Despite the limited mobility of EU citizens across the European Economic Area, let alone that of migrants, this cherished right has found itself at the centre of political debates in Europe. As illustrated by the key cases debated, and against the backdrop of a rise of populist solutions, one cannot expect a complete overhaul of the free movement framework. All in all, intra-EU mobility for EU citizens and migrants has not been changed as such, only certain provisions have been specified. To this end, bilateral cooperation between sending and receiving countries gains in importance. Cooperation between Norway and Poland, especially on integration, could help depoliticise the debate, and ensure the continued success of Polish workers in Norway.
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