№104: Pulling the Rope: The Struggle between Official and Popular Islam in Egypt
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: Egypt; Islam; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; Muslim countries; Muslims; religion; society
As so often in the past after political upheavals, the state in Egypt is trying to get a strong grip on Islam. But it is only able to control the institutionalised element of the religion (“official” Islam), whereas the uncontrollable and fragmented form, “popular” Islam, meaning the real source of religious inspiration for people, is metamorphosing. The result of this process will not only determine the future agents of mass mobilisation but may also signal a broader social transformation in the Arab world in the long term.
№103: Addressing Past Flaws and Looking to the Future: How Can the WTO Be Made More Relevant?
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: WTO - World Trade Organisation; economy; trade
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is celebrating the 20th anniversary of its creation. As the successor of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), it has inherited a wide scope of trade issues to address. An ambitious agenda along with a lack of consensus, mainly between the developed and developing states, are the main reasons for a stalemate in negotiations within the flagship initiative, The Doha Round. The ineffectiveness of the talks has pushed numerous countries to seek regional cooperation, which further hampers multilateral negotiations. In this situation, it is high time to rethink the future shape of the WTO and its role in the world economy.
№102: Unaided Refugees Make ISIS Stronger: Europe and the Worst Humanitarian Crisis of the 21st Century
Author(s): Ana Uzelac / Language(s): English
Keywords: refugees; Syria; aid; European Union; Jordan; Lebanon; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; society; Turkey
The worst humanitarian crisis of this century so far is unfolding daily in Europe's closest neighbourhood. Some 10 million Syrians and Iraqis have been displaced by sectarian conflicts over the past three years, and are living suspended lives in camps or makeshift shelters across the Middle East. It is as if all of Austria or Hungary was forced out of their homes. The fate of displaced Syrians and Iraqis is not only a moral dilemma for Europeans, it is a future security threat in the making. If abandoned and unassisted they risk becoming radicalised in the future, creating a potential recruitment and support base for anti-European extremism. Although the EU, and especially its better-off Member States, have already done a lot to assist the region with the refugee flow, response to the crisis should be expanded further, tailored and diversified. It should also be shouldered equitably by all EU members, in proportion to their size and national income. This crisis is too big and its consequences too far-reaching for any EU member to opt out.
№101: Can You Spare Some Food? An Assessment of Russia’s Search for Replacements of Embargoed States
Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: economy; Russia; Eastern Europe; Eurasia; Europe
By introducing a one-year embargo on the import of some food and agricultural products, Russia will have to substitute old channels for new ones on an unprecedented scale. With the exception of Belarus, there are few options to increase imports from suppliers close to Russia’s biggest cities. Within the country’s broader neighbourhood, China and Turkey offer some potential, whereas Latin America would be considered a more distant source for food. However, the change in trade patterns would have its price. Not only will Russia risk growing inflation but also it will increase its dependency on China, which can settle for good Moscow’s role as a minor partner of Beijing.
№100: Potential for Cooperation: Polish and Czech Standpoints on the Banking Union
Author(s): Tomáš Profant,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech Republic; Finances; Poland; Central Europe; economy; Europe; European Union; international cooperation
Czech and Polish banking systems are similar in many aspects, such as the predominance of euro area banks in the market and a strong banking supervisory authority. These common features of banking systems translate to similar Czech and Polish positions towards the Banking Union. Their main proposals are to include the specificity of so-called host countries and to maintain the strong position of national supervisory authorities. Although Poland and the Czech Republic will have more reasons to sign up to the Banking Union if they join the euro, these countries should continue to stress the importance of maintaining financial independence between parent banks abroad and their branches and subsidiaries in Poland or the Czech Republic. These countries should promote their monitoring systems as effective methods of providing financial security.
№099: The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: No Time for Obituaries
Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Egypt; Muslim Brotherhood; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa; Security; society
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the oldest socio-political movement active in Egypt. Its members and structures are now undergoing one of the most severe crackdowns in its history, at the hands of an Egyptian government that constituted itself in the aftermath of a popular revolt followed by a coup against a short period of MB rule in 2013. The MB, however, although dispersed and fragmented, is still not defeated, and faces options related to its future political trajectory. This paper discusses these options and concludes that the MB is most likely to ready itself for a “long struggle” scenario that would amount to waiting out the period of repression and reconstituting itself on a bottom-up basis.
№098: Inflation is Dead, but Not German Angst: How the Monetary Policy of the ECB Undermines the Culture of Stability
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Central Bank; ECB; Germany; economy; EU
The recent expansionary course of the European Central Bank confuses Germany. Getting the southern members of the eurozone out of recession is important, but the price could be damage to domestic savings, fading enthusiasm for reforms in the eurozone and more lax approaches to inflation in the future. In addition, the anti-deflationary bias in the eurozone can mark a point from which the traditional German macroeconomic preferences stop pushing themselves forward. Berlin needs allies to defend those preferences and Poland seems to be among them.
№097: Deterring Russia after Ukraine: CEE Divided on the Future of NATO Policy
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Eastern Europe; NATO
In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania have called for significant strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence policy and for permanent deployments of Allied troops in the region. This position is, however, not shared by the rest of the Central and Eastern European NATO members. Similar to Western European countries, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia do not feel as threatened by Russia’s actions and do not support moves that could damage their political and economic relations with Moscow. Fundamental differences among the current positions of the regional Allies indicate a profound divide between Central and Eastern European NATO members.
№096: Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Roderick Parkes,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; European Union
The EU is inevitably a geopolitical player, but it seeks to avoid fulfilling this role by all means. This has resulted in increased instability in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region. In order to bring healthy political choices to its troubled eastern neighbourhood, the EU should follow a 12-point plan focusing on a more nuanced policy towards Russia, stronger regional ties between Eastern partners, tailored EU conditionalities and an integration approach better suited to EaP countries, as well as improving EU political capacities in the region.
Keywords: economy; Russia; Eastern Europe; Eurasia; Europe
Despite the reigning consensus that the Russian economy is facing trouble ahead, some indicators suggest that the situation is not as dire as first appeared. Moreover, it may seem that the fiscal situation in the country—particularly its copious foreign currency reserves and substantial sovereign wealth funds—could still help extricate Russia from its economic difficulties. However, the very difficult budgetary situation in the regions and the staggering levels of debt of its companies suggest that economic problems could hit the country hard. Investors should remain vigilant of social and political tensions and the possible further deterioration of the business environment in Russia.
Eurasian integration has been formally elevated to a new level. On 29 May, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Astana the founding treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, problems related to integration, enlargement and international cooperation with the EEU indicate the effort is far from a point of no return. Despite the upbeat mood in Moscow, integration remains weak and selective, and in several important fields has been shelved until 2025. At the same time, the enlargement process has encountered security-related obstacles and triggered additional costs for Russia.
№093: A Little-Known Success Story: Implementation of the NSS Goals in Central Europe
Author(s): Katarzyna Kubiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; nuclear weapons; Security; Czech Republic; Eastern Europe; Europe; Hungary; international security; Poland; Romania; Ukraine
The Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) process aims for the international coordination of efforts to improve nuclear security. However, in the absence of globally binding norms, mechanisms, accountability and transparency, nuclear security principally remains a national matter. The Central European states, in particular Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine, are part of the NSS success story. The key drivers have been the Central European states’ longing for recognition as part of the West, the personal engagement of individuals in the governmental apparatus, and the fact that cooperation on nuclear security enables intensified relation-building with the United States. Taking into account their past achievements, the states of Central Europe can also play an important role in advancing the continuity of the NSS process and leading by example with contributions to nuclear security at the regional level.
№071: Bundestag Elections 2013: Consequences for German Capitalism and European Integration
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; parliamentary elections; domestic policy; elections; Europe; European integration; European Union; Western Europe
Germany will draw a lot of attention in September 2013 when its citizens will choose a new federal parliament—Bundestag. The reason is not only the fact that the country is a big player but also that it dominates Europe on a scale not observed since the 1980s. Its economic model seems to be the most efficient in Europe at the moment and the country even has enough power to set reform agendas across the EU. Since the biggest changes in German internal and external politics can be expected if the opposition is victorious, it seems important to analyse in advance the key elements of the proposals by the major opposition force: Social-Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. This could help us understand what kind of change to German capitalism is advocated by these parties and how their election success could affect European integration.
№070: In the Shadow of Syria: Review of the Chemical Weapons Convention
Author(s): Szymon Bocheński / Language(s): English
Keywords: chemical weapons; Syria; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; Security
A review of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) has concluded that chemical weapons disarmament is on track. However, the information about the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria has added a new sense of urgency to chemical weapons disarmament. It has proven that a global ban on this lethal arms category cannot be achieved without making the CWC a truly universal treaty. At the same time, the Review Conference recognised new challenges associated with the rapid growth of the chemical industry worldwide. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons will have to find a golden mean to ensure implementation of the Convention without hampering the peaceful uses of chemicals.
№069: The Search for an Exit from the Poland–Belarus Deadlock on Small Border Traffic
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; borders; Poland; small border traffic (SBT); Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe
A Polish–Belarusian agreement on small border traffic (SBT) could revive border trade and open new opportunities for regional cooperation. The Belarusian authorities, however, do not want the agreement to enter into force and treat it as a form of pressure on Warsaw. Poland may attempt to influence a change in this position by indicating the potential benefits to the Belarusian economy as well as to border areas if the agreement is implemented and noting the high level of support among residents who live there.
№068: Is Moldova Tired of Being the Success Story of the Eastern Partnership?
Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Moldova; Eastern Europe; Europe; European integration; European Union
Despite months of internal political wrangling, Moldova seems to be making steady progress in its Association Agreement with the EU. But the domestic political crisis has revealed many truths about both Moldova’s European policy and the EU’s transformative power. As such, the road to the EU remains murky as long as several variables remain in place: the ongoing tensions in the governing alliance, lower public support for European integration in Moldova, and Russia’s re-emerging leverage via Transnistria. That is why Poland, together with its partners, should look for new ways to keep Moldova as the pacesetter of the Eastern Partnership.
№067: Ripping into TTIP? Debates Surrounding the Upcoming EU–U.S. Negotiations
Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; TTIP.; USA; economy
The outcome of negotiations for a transatlantic trade deal depends largely on the stance of politicians and stakeholders in the EU and the U.S. An overview of the debate on either side of the Atlantic reveals both sides’ respective interests and suggests which areas will prove particularly difficult to negotiate. These include public procurement provisions, data privacy, agricultural issues, and the financial services sector.
№066: Poland and Spain: How to Cooperate in a Europe in Flux
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Europe; European Union; international cooperation; Western Europe
The lingering effects of the eurozone crisis have weakened the European project as a whole. As a result, stronger and more effective cooperation between enthusiastic EU countries such as Poland and Spain is very much needed. Besides cooperation within the EU in such fields as completing the single market and promoting a more holistic approach to the European Neighbourhood Policy, both countries should focus on improving their economic ties in bilateral relations and beyond. Through "smart" trade triangulation, Poland could open new markets in Eastern Europe for Spain, and Spain could reciprocate by doing the same for Poland in Latin America. This could help Poland make the economy more competitive and give Spain a lever for economic recovery.
№065: Turkey at a Tipping Point: Why the EU Should Use Gezi to Rebalance Ankara’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; domestic policy; Europe; European Union; foreign policy
Protests that began over the re-development of Gezi Park in Istanbul and spread throughout the country mark a turning point not just in Turkey’s domestic policy but in its foreign policy, too. The protestors demand a pluralistic democracy, rule of law, secularism, decentralisation of power from party elites, greater transparency and non-interference in private life. The EU, which increasingly looks on Turkey as a key regional partner, has an interest in reining in certain aspects of its domestic and foreign policies that seem to have been driven by the ideology of the governing AKP party.
№064: Regionalism in East Asia: A Bumpy Road to Asian Integration
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English
Keywords: East Asia; integration; Asia; economy
The shifting global power centre from the West to the East, China’s rise, and the United States’ “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region have all accelerated the integration processes in East Asia. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is trying to enhance its internal cooperation and extend it to other,non-ASEAN countries. Simultaneously, in Northeast Asia, despite territorial and historical disputes, China, Japan and South Korea are deepening trilateral cooperation. But integration processes in Asia differ from the EU model. Asian states that prioritise the preservation of sovereignty and focus on national interests are reluctant to engage in political integration, concentrating instead on loose economic cooperation. Nevertheless, recent initiatives to deepen economic integration in East Asia are in the EU’s interest, offering an opportunity for greater region-to-region cooperation.
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