№083: The Future of the European Defence Industry after the December Summit: Ten Polish Priorities
Author(s): Paulina Zamelek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP); European Union; Poland; Security; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe
December’s European Council Summit for heads of state or government has been tasked to deliberate European defence industry issues based on proposals provided by the European Commission. A divergence of interests expressed by interlocutors representing Member States, national defence industries and European institutions could result in heated political debate. The ability to accommodate the interests of Central Eastern Europe and Poland in particular in this process is not yet certain, especially as the EU’s ambitious plans for strengthening the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) are discordant with the current level playing field across Europe.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Asia; Central Asia; domestic policy; East Asia; economy; foreign policy
The destinations of China’s new leaders’ foreign trips show that the PRC’s foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called “new silk road” diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC’s “opening to the West” and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area—the first state-level development zone in northwest China—could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland’s “Go West China” strategy.
№081: Storm over Foreign Funding Continues in Egypt
Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: democratization; Egypt; non-governmental organisations; democracy; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa; society
Similar to the situation before the Arab Awakening, state control of civil associations in Egypt remains intact. Correspondingly, foreign funding for NGOs is still a controversial, selective and sensitive topic. Despite the objections of civil society and the international community, a new draft law on NGOs presented in September 2013 will most likely maintain the idea of state oversight of civil society organisations. The European Union, and Poland itself, should constantly monitor the status of the new draft law and actively encourage the authorities to comply with international standards. Despite difficulties with delivering the aid, the EU should stick to its values while supporting Egypt’s transition and continue to provide aid to local NGOs.
№080: New Nuclear Builds in Central and Eastern Europe: Safety Aspects
Author(s): Jodi Lieberman / Language(s): English
Keywords: energy security; nuclear energy; nuclear power; nuclear power plant; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Energy; energy and climate; Europe; IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency; nuclear security; Security
With nearly all of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe considering construction of new nuclear plants, either to add to existing units or for the first time, it can be instructive to take stock of where they started following 1989, where they are now, and what lies ahead. Most of the countries benefited from nuclear safety-related assistance in the past. Through their membership in the EU and IAEA they also have access to the tools and institutional procedures that can be useful in assessing their nuclear programmes from a nuclear safety point of view. Poland, starting from scratch with a new nuclear build, may benefit from extensive external experience.
№079: Awaiting Justice: Prospects for Prosecuting War Crimes in Syria
Author(s): Maria Radziejowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Syria; war crimes; conflict; international law; law; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; Security
In light of the current situation in Syria, and calls to hold to account those responsible for the atrocities allegedly committed during the conflict, a group of members of the American Congress suggested that the Security Council should create an ad hoc tribunal for Syria. A Blue Ribbon Panel of international criminal law experts presented a draft Statute for a Syrian Extraordinary Tribunal to Prosecute Atrocity Crimes, while some of the Security Council members suggested referring the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. Issues pertaining to establishing justice and restoring the rule of law in Syria will certainly be on the agenda for future peace talks. The question of working out a transitional justice strategy for the country is inevitable. Whether such a strategy should include a judicial accountability mechanism will certainly be considered.
№078: Pushing the Turbo Button: What Next for the Polish–Romanian Strategic Partnership?
Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa,Agnes Nicolescu,Stanislav Secrieru,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Poland; Romania; bilateral relations; economy; Europe; international cooperation; Security
With the global economic downturn and its implications for the broader political and security architecture of the EU, the Polish-Romanian Strategic Partnership signed in 2009 is now ripe to take the positive relationship to a new level and to be further fleshed out. To this end, political coordination needs to be upgraded for promoting common interests, such as economic stability and solidarity within the Union, continued support to agriculture and cohesion policy as an important priority for EU funding, increasing the energy security of the region, engaging the neighbourhood, particularly Moldova and Ukraine, and maintaining the relevance of CSDP and of article 5 of the Washington Treaty high on the European agenda. The management of instability and protracted conflicts in their neighbourhood are also among their shared concerns. Translating these common priorities into concrete actions should aim at pushing the “turbo button” on the partnership, and help both countries achieve their goals.The paper is a result of cooperation between the Polish Institute of International Affairs and the European Institute of Romania and was written as a follow-up to the conference “Romanian-Polish Strategic Partnership: Sharing Mutual Visions” organised jointly by the two think-tanks in Bucharest on 11 September 2013.
№077: Small Border Traffic with Kaliningrad: Challenges, Opportunities, Threats
Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska,Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Kaliningrad Oblast; small border traffic (SBT); borders; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; law; Poland; Russia; society
Small border traffic (SBT) between the Republic of Poland and the Russian Federation has proved to be a success story in its social, economic and cultural dimensions. Issuing local residents with permits to cross the border between Russia’s Kaliningrad region and several counties in Poland’s Pomorskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodships has boosted mutual contacts, benefitted the tourism and retail sectors, and spurred scientific collaboration, youth exchanges, and cooperation among NGOs. Fears of increased crime in border regions or violations of the SBT agreement proved unfounded. At the same time, SBT has revealed an array of challenges facing both countries, including a need for the expansion of border crossing infrastructure and deepening regional and intergovernmental cooperation, especially with the eventual start of visa-free traffic or for such events as the World Cup finals in Russia in 2018.
№076: “A Beautiful Future for Central Europe:” Hungary’s Regional Policy in the Period 2010–2013
Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Hungary; Eastern Europe; Europe; Viktor Orbán
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has, from the beginning of his tenure, made public declarations of his deep engagement with cooperation in the region, and outlined very ambitious visions about its future. The idea to make 2013, the year of Hungary’s presidencies of the Visegrad Group and the Central European Initiative, a Central European year, is a part of the policy of special attachment to regional matters too. However, there is a visible gap between politicians’ rhetoric and their activity. This is especially true regarding Hungary’s dialogue with Romania and Slovakia, which, due to many historical, social and psychological obstacles, has always been most challenging for leaders in Budapest. Orbán’s government, though, by taking steps to culturally and politically unify Hungarians from the Carpathian Basin, promoting historically ambiguous persons and inviting revisionists such as Erika Steinbach to parliament, not only fails to engender a good atmosphere in the region, but also proves how lively among the country’s governing elite are both resentments from the past and temptations to use them to achieve temporary political goals.
№075: A Competitive Two-speed Policy: The Eastern Partnership beyond 2013
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Kinga Dudzińska,Karolina Zubel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; European Union
A redefinition of the Eastern Partnership beyond 2013 is urgently needed in order to make the EU a more competitive player vis-à-vis Russia and China in the region. Eastern partners which choose deeper economic integration with the EU must therefore be supported by enhanced cooperation, which would require further differentiation in approaches towards neighbours. It should also be supported by certain horizontal policies, strengthening the EU’s multilateral cooperation and the fledgling European Union diplomacy in this region, assisted by better targeting policies at EaP societies.
№074: Al Qaeda at 25: “No Point in Fighting Them Since They Themselves are Fighting Each Other?
Author(s): Kacper Rękawek,Dario Cristiani / Language(s): English
Keywords: Al Qaeda; Middle East; terrorism; 11th September 2001; Arab Spring; international security; Iraq; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa; Security; Somalia
Just before another anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda (AQ) turned 25. Although after more than a decade of the war on terrorism the so called Al Qaeda Central is far from thriving operationally, it still advises and inspires jihadists around the world. Moreover, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring AQ Central affiliates and allies have re-constituted themselves and are growing in various parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East. Nonetheless, de-centralisation of the world’s counter-terrorism effort, with the focus not on AQ Central but on its “subordinates,” may in the longer term lead to a serious disruption of the totality of the organisation, already riddled with internal contradictions.
№073: Benefits of Regional Integration: What Sri Lanka Can Learn From Poland
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Shari Cooray,Thileni Wickramaratne / Language(s): English
Keywords: Sri Lanka; Asia; integration; Poland; SAARC - South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation; sanctions; Saudi Arabia; South Asia
Although Poland and Sri Lanka are distant and differ significantly, a comparison of their experiences with regional cooperation reveals a few interesting observations. Poland's accession to the EU proves the economic and political benefits of deeper integration, may mitigate fears of marginalisation and domination by regional hegemons, and can disperse concerns over lost sovereignty. The EU integration model and the Polish experience could serve as an inspiration for Sri Lanka and other members of SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and encourage them to revive their own integration process.
№072: Belarus in the CES: Advantages and Disadvantages of Economic Integration
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Natalia Ryabova / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Eastern Europe; economic policy; economy; Europe
Belarusian accession to the Common Economic Space (CES) was forced by two factors—the 2011 crisis and the necessity to gain cheap energy resources. Although Russia fulfilled its promises, decreasing gas and oil prices, Belarus is now feeling the negative results of the integration. According to CES rules, Belarusian authorities will have to tighten monetary policy, and reduce social spending and public financing of state-owned enterprises. The situation may be improved by foreign investments, but among the three CES countries, Belarus is the least attractive, especially since Russia joined the WTO and the because of the possible accession of Kazakhstan in the near future. Because of the need to carry out the major reforms in Belarus, the European Union has a greater chance to influence the situation in that country, for example by supporting modernisation projects.
№051: Georgian Dream’s Foreign Policies: An Attempt to Change the Paradigm?
Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English
Keywords: Georgia; Asia; Caucasus; Central Asia; domestic policy; Eurasia; Russia
Critics of current Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, including President Mikheil Saakashvili and his opposition United National Movement party, claim that the new Georgian government is undermining Georgia’s stable Euro-Atlantic course in its foreign policies. They suggest the prime minister’s inclination is to change the country’s policies from pro-Western to pro-Russian. The other element of their criticism towards Ivanishvili is that he is attempting to withdraw from the path of democratic reforms. The authorities reject these accusations but don’t deny that they seek to radically modify the policies of their predecessors. These changes include not only domestic but also foreign policies. Although the country’s commitment to the goals of integration with the EU and NATO is still backed by the new government, some statements and decisions by the prime minister suggest his will to reinvent the approach towards his Western partners. Also, his rhetoric concerning Georgia’s Caucasus neighbours may suggest some significant modifications in Georgia’s regional relationships. This paper analyzes the probability of a “paradigm shift” in Georgia’s foreign policy towards the EU, NATO, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
№050: How to Modernise the European Union’s Eastern Neighbourhood Policy in the Age of the Internet: The Case of Ukraine
Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English
Keywords: cyberspace; Eastern Partnership; neighbourhood policy; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; Europe; European Neighbourhood And Partnership Instrument (ENPI)); society
The importance of debate about information and communication technology’s social and political impact is growing gradually in the European Union. Recently, the EU has mentioned the approximation of legislation on electronic communications with the EU acquis in the framework of the Eastern Partnership initiative. These steps were taken primarily in the context of efforts to create a system of deep and comprehensive free trade areas within the region. This paper presents a proposal for the enrichment of the European Union’s public diplomacy in the so called Eastern Neighbourhood with new tools provided by the development of modern communications technologies and based on the example of Ukraine. The country’s internet audience is growing rapidly and as such constitutes a perfect starting point for new digitally-augmented public diplomacy in the Eastern Neighbourhood.
№048: Bridging a Differentiated Union: The Polish-German Tandem in Euro-Plus Governance
Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Nicolai von Ondarza / Language(s): English
Keywords: Euro; European Union; eurozone; Germany; Poland; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe
The necessity of strengthening eurozone economic governance is undisputed. Given the existence of so called pre-ins (which are committed to joining the common currency), however, this cannot occur only at the level of the eurozone’s 17 members and over the head of the EU institutions. A genuine Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) must be reconciled with the vital interests of all EU Member States, in particular the “pre-ins”. This difficult situation creates an opportunity for the emerging German–Polish relationship as a key to maintaining the EU’s integrity in a more-differentiated Union.
№047: Poland Looks to Ride Rising Tide of Transatlantic Defence Market Mergers
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: defence industry; Poland; Security; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe
The aerospace and defence industries are on the brink of a major shake-up. The aircraft producers will ave to meet booming demand for civilian planes, while defence companies face slashed military budgets and different military priorities. Both sectors of the industry will need a serious restructuring to adapt to the changing market, with consolidations and take-overs constituting a major trend. Their consequences will be felt in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland, as the biggest defence market in the region, at the forefront.
№046: Poland and Brazil: Narrowing the Distance, Exploring Mutual Potential
Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Brazil; Poland; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation; South America
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers, by Kinga Brudzińska and Bartłomiej Znojek, prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). With a long tradition of diplomatic relations, Poland and Brazil remain distant partners. A divergence of interests and the lack of traditionally close ties were among the main causes for the relatively low intensity of bilateral cooperation. Brazil’s and Poland’s economic and political transformations, their consequential growing roles in their respective regions and good economic performance of both countries are the basis upon which to build bilateral cooperation. The visit of Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski to Brazil at the end of November 2012 will provide an opportunity to explore the potential for increased cooperation between the two countries.The paper has been prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV).
NATO is preparing new defence plans with the potential of having available the scarcest military resources ever. Although the Alliance is attempting to create leaner, better equipped deployable forces, it is losing capabilities crucial for both projecting power and territorial defence. Since NATO is determined to adapt to new threats, planning teams may be forced to further de-emphasise assets needed for the credibility of Article 5.
№044: Nabucco West—Perspectives and Relevance: The Reconfigured Scenario
Author(s): Anita Sobják,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English
Keywords: gas; Nabucco; Central Europe; Central Asia; Eastern Europe; Energy; Europe
The aim of the Nabucco West gas pipeline is to supply Eastern and Central Europe with gas from sources other than Russia. Initially, the most likely source for Nabucco West would be Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz Phase 2, which would be delivered through the Turkish-Azerbaijani Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The 8 October meeting in Vienna of energy ministers from countries in the Nabucco West consortium and their counterpart from Azerbaijan suggests that the project is realistic. Nevertheless, the TANAP company has yet to choose whether to connect with this pipeline or the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which would supply the Italian market. A decision is due in 2013. This paper examines the impact that TANAP and Nabucco West could have, if implemented, on the energy security of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria.
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