Keywords: India; Poland; Asia; bilateral relations; international cooperation; South Asia
Mutual ignorance is a major constraint on stronger bilateral cooperation between Poland and India. After two decades of economic and political transformation, the image of modern Poland has still not reached India, thus hampering business opportunities and closer political ties. As India is becoming a world power, Poland will have to invest more to enhance its visibility in India as a precondition to higher level bilateral relations.
№062: The Western Balkans and the Alliance: All Is Not Well on NATO’s Southern Flank?
Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Balkans; NATO; Eastern Europe; Europe; international security; Security; South Europe
NATO maintains its dedication to its “open door policy,” and the Western Balkans effectively constitute the only potential enlargement area for the Alliance in the near future. Three Western Balkan countries are official membership candidates but their NATO bids suffer from a string of problems which have already delayed and could potentially also derail their Alliance prospects. Currently, the main tasks of Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina are to construct a positive political discourse related to their Euro-Atlantic prospects and to persevere with their NATO ambitions. Such a feat, however, will not be achieved without completion of Alliance related “homework.”
№060: Polish-Mexican Cooperation—Where Does Poland Stand?
Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Mexico; Poland; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation; North America
Poland and Mexico have unexplored potential for cooperation. Mexico, which has outperformed Brazil in economic growth for the last two years, has a highly open, emerging market with strong links to the rest of the world, including a free trade agreement with the EU. Furthermore, the reforms planned by the new administration, in particular in the energy sector, may result in Mexico’s oil and gas industry opening up to foreign participation. At the same time, Poland is improving its economic and political standing in the EU and is looking for closer cooperation with Latin America.
№059: Democratic Opposition Alone Will Not Bring Democracy to Egypt
Author(s): Amal Mukhtar,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: democracy; democratization; Egypt; domestic policy; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa
The creation of a new, united secular opposition group in Egypt (the National Salvation Front, or NSF) in November 2012 met with a sigh of relief in Europe and the U.S. It is viewed as the only democratic force in a country torn between Islamism and reactionism. The NSF itself, however, represents but a fraction of society, lacks homogeneity, and seems to be driven by basic political motivations rather than a sense of responsibility, just like the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its affiliates. More than two years after the fall of Mubarak and a year after the first democratic presidential elections in Egypt, only national reconciliation can save the country, which has seen a series of unconstitutional developments, remains without a parliament, and is on the brink of bankruptcy. Without reconciliation, all political parties, including NSF, will continue to lose support.
№058: Energy and Meat: Towards Better Polish–Saudi Relations
Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Patrycja Sasnal,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Saudi Arabia; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; economy; Energy; Europe; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa
Poland and Saudi Arabia share a counterintuitive commonality of features and interests. Both are regional “middle powers,” and Poland’s energy poor but agriculturally strong economy makes it surprisingly compatible with the energy rich, agriculturally weak Saudi Arabia. Yet bilateral relations between these nations leave a lot to be desired. There are at least three domains in which relatively little effort could bring much progress in releasing the potential of these relations.
№057: Towards New Political and Economic Agreements with Japan: Bringing New Dynamism into the Strategic Partnership between the EU and Japan
Author(s): Radosław Tyszkiewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; Japan; Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Europe; international cooperation
The forthcoming EU–Japan summit heralds a new era in the relations between these two major economic powers. Both players are focused on repairing their economies and putting growth back on track. To make this happen they are ready to negotiate legally binding agreements, which would help expand their cooperation. The negotiators will have to resolve a number of contentious issues, but the agreed outcome may result in considerable benefits for both the EU and Japan.
№056: How the European Union Is Shaping the Gas Market in Poland
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Energy; energy market; gas; Poland; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; energetics; Europe; European Union
Gas markets in the European Union are becoming more liberalised and integrated. But this model is rather typical only for North and Western Europe, while Poland significantly lags behind. Polish authorities only recently made some strategic decisions, but they constitute merely boundaries for a well functioning and liquid gas market in Poland integrated with the EU system. While the pace and scope of the necessary changes must be the subject of a reliable, expert debate, too much hesitation is already creating unnecessary uncertainty. Poland risks missing the opportunity to become an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.
№055: From the Periphery to the Core? Central Europe and the Economic Crisis
Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; economic crisis; bailout; Balkans; Cyprus; economy; Eurasian Union; Euro; Europe; Mediterranean Sea Region; Slovenia; South Europe
As a new test case for the resistance of Central European economies, the Cyprus banking crisis has already renewed speculation that Slovenia could be the next Member State in need of a bail-out. While other states in the region have sounder public finances and banking sectors, each of them continues to be exposed to the on-going instabilities of the eurozone. More than four years into the economic crisis, the time is ripe for reflection on the changes that the region has undergone in this period. Principally, it can be seen that both the similarities and the differences between these economies have been brought to the surface. This, together with the future course of economic governance reform of the European Union, might further deepen intra-regional splitting in the future. Overall, however, Central Europe has a chance to improve its relative economic position in the EU in the mid to long run, as the region has weathered the crisis better than the EU average.
№054: The Baltic States’ Success Story in Combating the Economic Crisis: Consequences for Regional Cooperation within the EU and with Russia
Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Baltic Sea Region; economic crisis; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Eastern Europe; economy; Europe; European Union; international cooperation
The global economic downturn of 2008 and the financial and ongoing fiscal crisis in the eurozone have proved to be extremely painful for newer EU Member States Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. At the same time, however, the crises have revealed some significant differences between these three small, seemingly homogenous countries, and especially in the effectiveness of their anti-crisis policies. The diverse results of these policies were shaped in several respects by internal factors, such as the sensitivity of their economies to foreign markets or the different response times of the governments to the first signs of the economic downturn as well as the socio-political background at the time of the crisis. However, the Baltics have indeed learnt lessons, as each one implemented austerity-style policies. Since 2011, economic growth has accelerated in all of the Baltic States, and their struggle with the crisis already seems to be a unique success story that affects regional cooperation as well as relations with Russia.
№053: East of Centre: Can the Visegrad Group Speak with One Voice on Eastern Policy?
Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Visegrad Group; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; European Union
The Visegrad Group has for a long time been showing ongoing efforts to develop cooperation with the Eastern Partnership countries by advocating for them in the EU and supporting their democratisation and transformation processes. However, even though the V4 as a whole has aspirations to create an active and compatible role in the East, each Visegrad country also pursues its own Eastern policy rooted in a historical and social background, particular economic and geopolitical interests as well as temporary political goals. Thus, there are areas in which the individual member states do not cooperate with one another, but rather act as competitors. By the same token, since Eastern policy is not necessarily a priority in the national foreign policies of each V4 country, there are also activities that are not promoted to the same degree by all of them. This paper analyses the Eastern policies (understood as maintaining relations with the Eastern Partnership countries and Russia) of Poland’s Visegrad partners—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia—and discusses areas in which the V4’s efforts may be unified.
№052: Could the Arctic Warm Up NATO–Russia Relations?
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Arctic; NATO; Russia; international cooperation; Security
The stakes in the Arctic are high, but only cooperation will unlock the full potential of the region. The peaceful and secure Arctic can become an attractive transport corridor and energy provider. Yet, a lack of trust and transparency could easily lead to tensions and a militarisation of the region, making it less attractive for investments. To avoid such a scenario, Russia and NATO should use existing forms of cooperation and extend them to the Arctic.
№032: The Implications of Hungary’s National Policy for Relations with Neighbouring States
Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; Central Europe; domestic policy; Europe; foreign policy
The paper highlights the importance of Hungary’s policy towards the Hungarian diaspora in the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. The author points to both discontinuities and similarities in the approach of post-Cold War Hungarian governments and political elites to the issue of so-called national policy, as well as its interplay with other strategic directions of Hungary’s foreign policy in this period, most notably Euro-Atlantic integration and good-neighbourly relations. The analysis focuses on the national policy as implemented by the current Hungarian government of the FIDESZ political party. The policy itself is rooted in the Hungarian legislation, and is reflected in the structures of the Hungarian administration. As such, its implementation has not been without considerable negative repercussions for Hungary’s relations with its neighbours but, as the author points out, in some cases the relationship remained amicable, or at least cooperative.
№031: The June 17 Elections in Greece: Domestic and European Implications
Author(s): Anna Visvizi / Language(s): English
Keywords: Greece; parliamentary elections; Balkans; domestic policy; elections; Europe; South Europe
The author analyses the background of the recent parliamentary elections in Greece, and lists the key challenges facing the new government under Antonis Samaras. Greek authorities will have to perform a tough balancing act while trying to come up with a strategy to address four major problems. First, Greek economy has to start generating growth again. Second, Greece and its international partners need to renegotiate the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding that set out the conditions for external support for Greek reforms. Third, the cabinet under Samaras will have to navigate the troubled waters of domestic politics, fending off criticism from populist parties. Finally, Greece’s image has been tarnished in the recent months, hence the new government must work hard to restore the country’s credibility in Europe and in the wider world. Crucially, external actors, especially fellow members of the EU, have both the assets and the interest in boosting Samaras’ credibility, both domestically and internationally.
№030: Full Speed Ahead? Poland in Baltic Sea Region Cooperation
Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Baltic Sea Region; Poland; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation
The paper offers a useful overview of the factors affecting inter- and sub-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The author points to a notable absence of so-called hard security, low-consensual issues on the regional agenda, while at the same time diagnosing a long list of reasons behind limited efficacy of cooperation in tackling soft challenges. Diversity in terms of demographic and economic potential among the regional partners, varying level of socio-economic development, and different priorities assigned to the BSR make for a complex and demanding setting for policymakers. All of the key challenges facing the region—boosting trade, bridging civilisational gaps, ensuring greater coordination of environmental policies, and enhancing the interconnectivity in terms of transportation network—can be met, but will require greater political engagement, adjustment of national priorities and instruments of cooperation, as well as adequate sourcing. The paper concludes with an analysis of Poland’s possible input into a more advantageous cooperation in the BSR.
№029: NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture: Central and Eastern European Perspectives
Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Eastern Europe; nuclear security; nuclear weapons
The paper offers a comprehensive overview of the positions of Central and Eastern European states vis-à-vis the NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The outcome of the DDPR process, which has been on the Alliance’s agenda since the summit in Lisbon in 2010, will come to the front and centre of the debate in the second half of May, as leaders of NATO member states convene for the summit in Chicago. The author discusses the Central and Eastern Europeans’ approach to the question of the overall mix of NATO defence and deterrence capabilities—nuclear forces, conventional forces, and missile defence. In particular, he argues that the debate about certain aspects of the NATO defence and deterrence posture should not cease with the endorsement of the DDPR report in Chicago, but should continue in order to address the outstanding issue of non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe.
Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed.
Author(s): Andrzej Turkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Asia; climate; energetics; Energy; Eurasia; Europe; Russia
The paper presents the determinants, goals and instruments of the Russian international climate policy. The author points to the pragmatism that characterizes the Russian approach to the climate change issue, and highlights the key drivers behind Russia’s stance during the recently-launched post-Durban negotiations.
№026: The EU Budgetary Chess Game, the Polish Presidency and the Shadows of the Debt Crisis
Author(s): Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU budget; budget; Euro; Europe; European Union; eurozone
The times are hardly auspicious for making tough decisions about the future of the European Union’s finances. European integration is under stress in the light of the potentially debilitating debt crisis which threatens the long-term viability of the eurozone. In addition, the negotiations over the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—an arduous, seemingly routine process, with scant possibilities for bold moves and widespread awareness about the limits of the eventual compromise, yet extremely prone to politicization—have become even more protracted as new actors, most notably the European Parliament, seek to gain additional prominence. Still, the process will be largely driven by the biggest net contributors to the EU budget, namely Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Transparency could thus be a decisive feature of the negotiating process, allowing less influential Member States to hedge against the proposals undermining the solidarity which underpins the EU budget. Still, as the authors conclude, the outlook is rather pessimistic for the EU, as the stalemate hampers a more effective application of the MFF to tackle economic challenges.
№025: The European Union and India: Partners in Democracy Promotion?
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: democracy; democratization; India; Asia; Asia and Pacific; Europe; European Endowment for Democracy (EED); European Union; international cooperation; South Asia
On February 10, leaders of the European Union and India met to take stock of the state of their strategic partnership. The agenda of the 12th EU-India Summit featured, among others, a discussion about the past year’s developments in Northern Africa and the possibilities of assisting the ongoing changes in the region. As the author points out, engaging India in this context will require a better understanding of the Indian approach to democracy support, and a frank dialogue about the differences between the EU and India in this particular area. He then goes on to explain the reasons for these divergences, and indentifies possible avenues of cooperation. The paper argues that different approaches to democracy ought to be considered as complimenting, and not necessarily contradicting each other. The EU and India can work together on some very specific issues, even if the differences turn out to be impossible to bridge.
№024: The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Brazil; European Union; bilateral relations; Europe; international cooperation; South America
Following the creation of the EU-Brazil strategic partnership nearly five years ago, the density of contacts between the European Union and the largest Latin American country has grown steadily. However, while it looks impressive on paper given the potential of both sides, and seems like a no-brainer in the light of EU’s global ambitions and Brazil’s economic and political rise, including its status as a part of the BRICS forum, the relationship is not free from significant tensions. It is not entirely clear whether the seemingly unanimous endorsement of a multi-polar international order means the same for both partners. In addition, further deepening of the EU-Brazil partnership could have rather adverse effects on consolidating Mercosur, and EU dialogue with that bloc. It will be increasingly hard for the EU, adversely affected by the economic downturn, to gain real interest of Brazilian authorities in a truly strategic partnership, as they evidently see relations with other emerging countries as much more advantageous in carrying out own global ambitions. While the EU and Brazil will continue to consider each other as important partners, they need to carefully manage these and other incompatibilities of their relationship, lest they fail to fulfil its potential.
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