№154: Common Monetary Policy, Different Fiscal Policy: How Will Europe React to Crises in the Future? An Analysis Looking at Germany, France and Poland as Examples
Author(s): Matthias Schäfer,Astrid Pape / Language(s): English
There is consensus across all ideological boundaries that the eurozone is imperfect as an institution.2 Thecommon monetary policy, in combination with national scope in fiscal policymaking and a non-optimalcurrency area has painfully exposed its weaknesses, not only in relation to the dramatic developments inGreece but also in the shape of the slow recovery of the European economy. While countries such asGermany have emerged fortified from the crisis, France’s growth, for instance, continues to weaken—despite an annual budget deficit of 3%. Within Europe, opinions differ as to which fiscal policy will best pave the way out of the crisis. While Germany publicises its healthy finances in the form of low levels of debt and minimal inflation,4countriessuch as France view expansionary fiscal policy as a crucial factor for future growth. The Stability and GrowthPact provides a framework for fiscal policy, although differences of opinion are evident when it comes to itsimplementation and compliance with the rules. In Germany in particular, the recent relaxed handling ofviolations of the signed rule set was criticised.
№023: Towards an Enhanced Polish-Spanish Partnership
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Spain; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation
The paper argues that despite the likely preoccupation with the immediate internal challenges and broader, EU-wide concerns, Poland and Spain stand a good chance of bolstering their relationship given their credentials as ardent advocates of European integration and a positive track-record of the bilateral cooperation to date. In particular, the relationship could benefit from the further development of its institutional framework, and from recasting the dialogue on crucial matters such as European neighbourhood or European defense cooperation. While Poland and Spain may not see eye-to-eye on certain issues—the future EU budget being arguably the most prominent among them—they should still make an effort to deepen their dialogue given the high stakes on the European level.
№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations
Author(s): Karolina Werner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Africa; Caribbean; development found; Europe; European Development Fund (EDF); European Union; Pacific Ocean Region
The European Development Fund is arguably one of the most potent tools of the European Union’s policy towards the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific region. As the member states and the EU institutions prepare to make a decision on the future shape and scope of the EDF, the following analysis lays out the intricacies of the EU-ACP relationship from its outset, and addresses the key elements of the debate within the decision-making and expert circles. The EDF is plagued by general inconsistency of the EU policy towards these regions, and suffers from all-too-familiar shortcomings such as extensive bureaucracy and ineffective programming of aid. Despite these challenges, the EDF has established itself as a fairly predictable and versatile instrument for channeling of aid, and one which adequately addresses the needs of most of the ACP countries. Still, some reforms, such as greater diversification between the three regions involved, could be necessary, all this while the EU member states stand by their commitments to development aid.
№021: Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Asia; development aid
The paper summarises the last decade in Afghanistan and points at critical mistakes made by the international community. The author argues that Western powers did not treat Afghan security and reconstruction seriously and displayed much ignorance about its regional environment—all in all causing the great opportunity to put the country on its own feet to be lost. The modest achievements in Afghanistan will be at grave risk as the West prepares to leave the country by 2014. The international commitment to Afghanistan needs to be reinvigorated before the country descends into yet another war. The analysis concludes with a set of crucial lessons learned from the Afghan conflict for future peace-and-reconstruction missions.
№020: European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU’s Offer with Neighbour’s Expectations?
Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; neighbourhood policy; Europe
The paper diagnoses the key challenges faced by the European Union as it re-calibrates its policy towards its immediate neighbours to the east and to the south, spurred by the recognition of inadequate progress in the former case, and by a tectonic shift in the socio-political landscape in the latter case. The authors argue that the EU needs to urgently address the disconnect between its own objectives in the neighbourhood, and the expectations of its partners, who are themselves a hugely heterogenic group. The EU has no better choice but to increase the conditionality behind its initiatives, and to introduce greater differentiation among their addressees. The institutional, structural and financial constraints of the EU’s neighbourhood policy only add to the challenge, but the EU has too much to loose in terms of its own credibility as a foreign policy actor to allow them to prevail.
Recent conclusion of the Agreement on Strategic Partnership between Afghanistan and India has underscored India’s low-profile engagement in the war-torn country. This paper presents the record of Indian involvement in Afghanistan after 2001 and analyses the potential for increased presence at three distinct levels: civilian, military and regional. The author argues that in spite of Pakistani objections, the West should strengthen cooperation with India in reconstruction and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan while providing strong incentives for constructive regional cooperation in South Asia. Even as NATO is gearing up for a responsible exit from Afghanistan, its neighbours are there to stay. Crucially, the role that India can play in Afghanistan needs to be reassessed. The upcoming conferences in Istanbul and Bonn offer an excellent opportunity in this respect.
№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; Eastern Europe; Europe; European integration; European Union
The paper pictures a broad panorama of factors that are likely to impact the future prospects of Moldova’s integration with the EU. The authors argue that Moldova’s best chance to move further down this path could depend on a favourable, if fragile, realignment among three EU member states whose interests seem to be spelled out in a sufficiently clear manner: Germany, Poland and Romania.
№017: Not (yet) an Energy Revolution. India between Climate Change Mitigation and Development Imperatives
Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Energetyka; Indie; klimat
Indie stoją przed poważnym wyzwaniem w związku koniecznością pogodzenia wzrostu gospodarczego z ambitnym planem wdrożenia strategii rozwoju, która zakładałaby odejście od polegania na paliwach kopalnych jako na głównym nośniku energii. W minionych latach Indie zaczęły sygnalizować wzrost zainteresowania walką ze skutkami zmian klimatu – mitygacja zajmuje wiele miejsca w oficjalnych dokumentach, rosną inwestycje w instrumenty, które mają ograniczyć rolę węgla w indyjskim energy mix. Jednocześnie wyzwania dla dalszego rozwoju są znaczne. Przede wszystkim chodzi o niedobór podaży energii dla dużych grup mieszkańców Indii oraz o trudności ze zwiększeniem zużycia jej alternatywnych źródeł, połączone z relatywną obfitością występowania węgla jako głównego filaru produkcji elektryczności. W rezultacie Indie mogą uciekać się działań pozorowanych i tymczasowych, oddalając się tym samym od realnej rewolucji w dziedzinie energetyki.
№016: Palestinian UN Vote and Triple-faced EU Policies
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Daniel Levy / Language(s): English
Keywords: Middle East;Palestine;
Debata wokół uznania państwa palestyńskiego przez ONZ po raz kolejny ukazała głębokie podziały wewnątrz Unii Europejskiej, jej słabość i marginalne znaczenie problemu uznania Palestyny w obliczu kryzysu strefy euro. W niniejszym studium Patrycja Sasnal bada możliwości, jakie Palestyńczycy mają do dyspozycji w ONZ, i argumentuje, że UE nadal może zachować twarz, jeśli gremialnie wstrzyma się od głosu lub zagłosuje „za” w zależności od sformułowania treści rezolucji. Następnie Daniel Levy uzasadnia, dlaczego głosowanie na „tak” może przyczynić się do postępów w procesie pokojowym. Najpilniejszym celem pozostaje niedopuszczenie do ponownego wybuchu przemocy pomiędzy zwaśnionymi stronami na gwałtownie zmieniającym się Bliskim Wschodzie.
№015: How Terrorist Leaders End: Implications for the Future of the Struggle with al-Qaeda
Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Al-Kaida; Osama bin Laden;terrorism;
Po śmierci Osamy bin Ladena dyskusja wokół strategicznego kierunku, jaki powinna obrać kampania wymierzona w Al-Ka'idę, nabrała nowego wymiaru. Autor niniejszej analizy dowodzi, że optymalna strategia walki z tą organizacją powinna brać pod uwagę dotychczasowe doświadczenia i skutki zmian, jakie następowały w kierownictwach głównych grup terrorystycznych. Spośród wielu scenariuszy tego rodzaju zmian tylko niektóre można uznać za prawdopodobne w przypadku Al-Ka'idy. Strategia, która polegałaby na dążeniu do poważnego zakłócenia prawdopodobnej "linii sukcesji" przywództwa Al-Ka'idy byłaby wprawdzie mniej spektakularna niż kontynuowanie kampanii przeciwko jej obecnym liderom, ale mogłaby się okazać bardziej efektywna w długim okresie. Analizie towarzyszy szczegółowe zestawienie dostępnych informacji o sposobach, w jakich dochodziło do zmian na czele najważniejszych organizacji terrorystycznych na świecie.
DAV4 II Report: Region’s quest for inclusive cyber protection
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: cyber protection
Polish Institute of International Affairs presents a joint policy report: Region’s Quest for Inclusive Cyberprotection, prepared in the framework of the research project Defence Austerity in the Visegrad Region II – DAV4 II, funded by the Interantional Visegrad Fund (IVF). The authors of the report argue, that the Visegrad countries could become an avant-garde of cyberdefense policy, if only they decided to include cybersecurity in the agenda of their political consultations and practical collaboration. The policy report, which also aims to contribute to the debate about the the landscape of threats in cyberspace, was prepared by Central European Policy Institute (Slovakia), in cooperation with PISM (Poland), International Centre for Democratic Transition (Hungary) and Jagello 2000 (Czech Republic).
Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Asia; Europe; Middle East; missile defence; South Asia
The importance of the issue of missile defence was underlined at the end of 2012 and in the first few months of 2013 by several events, including Israel’s Operation Pillar of Defence, NATO’s Patriot deployments to the Turkish–Syrian border and the nuclear and missile crisis in North Korea.The report adds to the ongoing discussion about the relationship between missile defence and nuclear deterrence while keeping in mind the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons promoted by the current U.S. administration. The interconnections between missile defence and nuclear deterrence are complicated. While in some cases MD development can lead to a decrease in nuclear arsenals, in some regions it might have a more negative effect of fuelling nuclear arms races. The added value of the report is its wide range: readers will find perspectives on missile defence presented by authors dealing with these issues in not only the transatlantic and European contexts but also in Russia, the Middle East, South Asia and the Far East. Regardless of the various perspectives, contexts and conclusions of the report’s individual chapters, there is no disagreement that missile defence is already influencing the thinking about nuclear weapons and deterrence. It also reveals that the interconnections between missile defence and nuclear deterrence might be more complicated than any idealistic expectations about the former as a substitute for the latter. The role of missile defence in shaping the security environment will only be growing. We encourage every reader to engage in further exchanges of opinions with our staff and all the authors of this report.
Author(s): Stefano Silvestri,Marcin Zaborowski,Charles Powell,Anna Jardfelt / Language(s): English
Keywords: BRICS; China; European Global Strategy (EGS); European Union; foreign policy; North Korea; Poland; Russia; Spain; Sweden; Syria; Turkey
The rise of the BRICS, trouble with North Korea and Syria, the decline of the US and of western rules: how should an already overstretched European Union respond? This joint report on a European Global Strategy, produced together with think tanks Elcano, IAI, UI, suggests that the EU needs to do three things to fill the global power vacuum and define the new order: salvage its internal market and leverage its economic weight; intensify cooperation with Turkey, China and Russia in a new vision of its neighbourhood; and forge an Atlantic Community to reassert the western liberal order. This report is a central product of the period of reflection initiated by the foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden in July 2012 and is designed to encourage long-term thinking in the EU's ongoing foreign policy review.
Doing Business with Tigers: Trends, Features and Prospects for Poland’s Trade with Asia
Author(s): Artur Gradziuk,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Asia; China; economy; Poland; trade
Should a new opening be expected in Poland’s relations with the Asian countries? The current trade statistics suggest that this cannot be ruled out.In 2011, the value of Polish exports to Asian markets rose by €1 billion against 2011, and Polish entrepreneurs now seem less fearful when starting a business there.For Asian countries in turn cooperation with Poland is becoming the key to the European market. These issues are examined by our researchers Artur Gradziuk and Patryk Toporowski in the latest PISM report "Doing Business with Tigers: Trends, Features and Prospects for Poland's Trade with Asia." The authors of the report stress that alongside China, the number one trading partner in Asia, other Asian markets, in particular India and Kazakhstan, are also important for the Polish exporters. Poland’s presence in Japan and South Korea is growing, and trade with Asia is beneficial in particular for the Polish chemical, cosmetic, food and machinery industries.A report is a part of the project „Trade with Asia - An Opportunity For Visegrad Countries?” (no 11220101) financed by the International Visegrad Fund. The other project partners are: EUROPEUM, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Slovak Academy of Sciences.
The Renegotiation Delusion? Nine Questions about Britain's EU future
Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Roderick Parkes,Marta Stormowska,Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; United Kingdom; Europe; Western Europe
Is the UK leaving the EU, or just on the way to a new membership status? Would a special, looser membership status for the UK affect Poland and its position as a non-eurozone member? These issues and others are discussed in the latest PISM report, which is being released after the results of the recent local elections in the UK saw a surge in support for UKIP and put the renegotiation of the UK's EU membership back in the forefront of the British debate. In a context characterised by miscommunication and misperception of the EU-UK dialogue, PISM explores the potential for the UK and the other Member States to resolve the situation, clarifying nine key questions about Britain's EU future.
The Warsaw Workshop Prospects for Information Sharing and Confidence Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe
Author(s): Paul Schulte / Language(s): English
Keywords: nuclear weapons
The Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the final report from “The Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information Sharing and Confidence Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe”, which was held on 7 and 8 February 2013. Non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe are not presently covered by existing arms control regimes or confidence building measures. The report, which summarises the proceedings of the Workshop, includes a set of practical options that can become a basis for future work on such measures in a variety of bilateral and multilateral forums, including the NATO–Russia Council. The report has been prepared by the representatives of three think tanks which co-organized the Warsaw Workshop: Paul Schulte (Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Paal Sigurd Hilde, Katarzyna Zysk (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies), Łukasz Kulesa and Jacek Durkalec from PISM.
Author(s): Erich Kříž,Katalin Antaloczy,Magdolna Sass,Patryk Toporowski,Karol Frank / Language(s): English
Keywords: Visegrad Group
The Polish Institute of International Affairs recommends you the report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer: Panorama of Automotive Industry prepared under the project: V4 Trade and FDI Observer, financed by the International Visegrad Fund. PISM was represented in this project by Patryk Toporowski, PISM analyst, who was responsible in substance for a section on Poland.The report is the result of work of the small team of experts from the Visegrad Group countries: the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Editor of the whole document is Tamás Szemler (ICEG European Centre). The aim of the report is the analysis of current trade and foreign direct investments in the automotive industry.
Keywords: economy; European Union; Visegrad Group; Central Europe; Czech Republic; economic crisis; economics; Euro; Europe; European integration; eurozone; Hungary; Poland; Slovakia; Western Europe
On 19 October 2012, representatives from the four Visegrad countries met in Warsaw, at PISM, to discuss national approaches to the current sovereign debt crisis and the EU’s increasing use of differentiated integration. The goal was to explore the potential of a joint response to hazards that might sideline the Four in EU affairs. The present report picks up on the issues discussed there, with contributions from Janusz Gąciarz, Radovan Kavický, David Král, László Sinka, Rafał Trzaskowski. By identifying much potential for future cooperation, the report, edited by Agata Gostyńska and Roderick Parkes, draws recommendations for the Visegrad Group that can ultimately result in their upgraded cooperation on the EU arena.
The Future of NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture: Views from Central Europe
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; deterrence; NATO; nuclear weapons
The Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the report The Future of NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture: Views from Central Europe, published as part of a partnership with the Nuclear Security Project. The report includes contributions of experts from Central Europe and the United States, it was edited by Łukasz Kulesa, head of the Non-proliferation and Arms Control Project at PISM. The year 2012 saw the completion of the Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR), which was mandated by the 2010 NATO summit in Lisbon. This process involved a comprehensive re-examination of the utility of the main elements of NATO’s posture: nuclear weapons, missile defence capabilities and conventional forces, as well as arms-control and disarmament issues. Using the DDPR as the point of departure, the report is meant to provide an analytical glimpse into the future—the next decade of the functioning of NATO’s deterrence posture, as seen from Central Europe. It concentrates on the regional perceptions of the security environment and threats, the assessments of the credibility of NATO’s policy, and the way forward. Taken into account the perspective of a turbulent decade in which the viability of NATO’s defence and deterrence posture will be subjected to external and internal pressures, understanding the concerns and viewpoints of Central Europeans would help in charting the right course for the Alliance.
Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Dorota Liszczyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: European External Action Service (EEAS); Catherine Ashton; diplomacy; European Union; High Representative
In the context of the forthcoming review of the European External Action Service, scheduled for 2013, staff issues may well find themselves in the spotlight given their importance for the efficiency of this structure. The current personnel policy and recruitment process – carefully watched by the Member States – have reduced the imbalances in the representation of individual EU members within the EEAS staff, but not eliminated them. The review should, therefore, provide an opportunity to search for further acceptable solutions to compensate existing deficits, so that European diplomacy is equipped with the competencies and skills to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century.
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