№004: What future for out-of-area operations after Afghanistan?
Author(s): Gareth Chappell / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; OTAN; security
Analizuje on zagadnienie gotowości Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego do podejmowania tak zwanych operacji "out-of-area". Nowa Koncepcja Strategiczna NATO przewiduje, że Sojusz będzie kontynuował aktywność poza obszarem traktatowym określonym w Traktacie Waszyngtońskim. Gareth Chappell, analityk PISM, dowodzi jednak, że operacja sojusznicza w Afganistanie może spowodować nasilenie się odwrotnego trendu. W państwach członkowskich NATO coraz silniej odczuwalne jest zmęczenie tym konfliktem, zaś kryzys gospodarczy dodatkowo utrudni sojusznikom sprostanie wymaganiom intensywnej, zamorskiej obecności wojskowej. Niektóre państwa członkowskie, w szczególności USA, mogą być w rosnącym stopniu skłonne odwoływać się do innych instrumentów w swojej polityce bezpieczeństwa - mniej formalnych, ale za to bardziej skutecznych. W rezultacie NATO będzie intensyfikować zaangażowanie na innych polach, takich jak promowanie współpracy w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, obrona przeciwrakietowa czy zagrożenia nowego typu, dążąc w ten sposób do potwierdzenia swojej żywotności.
№003: A sea change or a tactical adjustment? Examining the shift in Russia’s policy towards Belarus
Author(s): Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Russia; international relations
W trzecim numerze PISM Policy Papers dr Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz analizuje podejście władz Rosji wobec rządów Aleksandra Łukaszenki w kontekście wyborów prezydenckich na Białorusi. Autor dowodzi, że politykę Rosji w rosnącym stopniu determinują czynniki ekonomiczne. Władze rosyjskie wydają się coraz bardziej zainteresowane odsunięciem obecnego prezydenta Białorusi od władzy, co z kolei stwarza nowe możliwości działania dla Unii Europejskiej.
№002: The challenge of Middle East Peace before the EU‐US Lisbon Summit
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU‐US Lisbon Summit; Middle East; peace
PISM Policy Paper – przygotowany we współpracy z Centrum Stosunków Transatlantyckich przy Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) na Johns Hopkins University w Waszyngtonie – omawia stan bliskowschodniego procesu pokojowego w przededniu szczytu UE-USA w Lizbonie. Autorka, Patrycja Sasnal (analityk PISM oraz Visiting Scholar w SAIS), dowodzi pilnej potrzeby bardziej spójnej polityki UE wobec Bliskiego Wschodu, polegającej na aktywnym zaangażowaniu Wysokiej Przedstawiciel UE ds. Stosunków Zewnętrznych oraz Polityki Bezpieczeństwa, a także wsparciu wszystkich państw członkowskich. Sprawując Prezydencję w Radzie UE w drugiej połowie 2011 r., Polska może przyczynić się do wypracowania konsensu w podejściu państw UE do procesu pokojowego na Bliskim Wschodzie dzięki łagodzeniu napięć między Francją a Niemcami i pobudzając współpracę transatlantycką. Efektem byłoby wzmocnienie zarówno polskiej, jak i unijnej pozycji międzynarodowej.
№001: U.S. Mid-term Elections: An Ebb of the Obama Revolution
Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Barack Obama; USA
Pierwszy tekst w serii PISM Policy Papers podejmuje temat możliwych implikacji wyborów do Kongresu USA. Autor tekstu, Bartosz Wiśniewski (analityk PISM), wymienia powody i przejawy rosnącego niezadowolenia amerykańskich wyborców z działań kontrolowanego przez Partię Demokratyczną Kongresu oraz administracji prezydenta Baracka Obamy. Spodziewana wygrana Partii Republikańskiej postawi pod znakiem zapytania przyszłość najważniejszych jak dotąd osiągnięć tej prezydentury, ale tylko w ograniczonym stopniu pozwala na kreślenie perspektyw reelekcji Obamy w 2012 r. Niepowodzenie wyborcze nie wywoła drastycznej zmiany głównych kierunków polityki zagranicznej USA, może jednak wpłynąć na skuteczność międzynarodowej aktywności administracji amerykańskiej.
№155: Gas Security in the Pipeline—Expectations and Realities
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English
Keywords: bezpieczeństwo energetyczne; gaz; Energetyka; Norwegia; Polska
The cooperation between Norway and Poland in the energy sector has recently taken very tangible shape. In 2016, Poland decided to launch the Northern Gate project—a set of gas interconnections aiming to link the Polish gas market with gas deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With that decision, Poland wants to diversify away from Russia to mitigate energy security and political risks connected with the high level of dependence on one supplier. But in terms of Polish-Norwegian cooperation, the question of security of gas supply that Poland wants to address is accompanied by the question of the security of gas demand, a key concern for gas producers such as Norway. Hence, cooperation in the gas sector examined from those two perspectives may actually bring benefits for both countries and promises of win-win cooperation.
№156: Adapting NATO’s Conventional Force Posture in the Nordic-Baltic Region
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Karsten Friis / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; conventional force posture; Nordic-Baltic Region
The security of NATO members in the Nordic-Baltic region is interconnected by such factors as the possibility of geographical escalation, the importance of securing the North Atlantic for U.S. reinforcement of Europe, and the key role of cooperation with NATO partners Sweden and Finland. NATO must consider these interconnections as it continues to adapt to the challenge posed by Russia. NATO’s further adaptation should fill in the gaps in Allied force posture and be guided by an overarching principle of ensuring coherence between its existing elements and new ones. Given Poland and Norway’s close views on NATO and transatlantic relations, as well as their credibility rooted in their various contributions to the Alliance, the countries should jointly advocate a coherent process in the Nordic-Baltic region.
№157: Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; dialogue; international relations
Dialogue between Russia and NATO is indispensable to limit the risk of unintended military confrontation amid increased tension. Without dialogue, Alliance cohesion is also at stake. To develop a balance between deterrence and dialogue, it is necessary to understand how the two actions relate to each other, what lessons the West can learn from the past, and what goals it wants to achieve apart from limiting the risk of confrontation.
№158: China as an “Engine” of Globalisation: More Words than Deeds
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; globalisation
As the U.S. under President Donald Trump leans towards protectionist economic policy, China sees an opportunity to become a driving force of globalisation. It presents itself as having the economic potential and political clout crucial to being its champion. However, China’s still relatively closed market, use of prohibited trade practices, stalled internal economic reforms, social challenges, and political disputes with neighbouring countries make its claim less probable in the years to come. For now, China lacks the credibility to be an engine of globalisation.
VisegrAid 4 Moldova report: Effectiveness by Collaboration
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Moldova; Visegrad Group; Europe
By 2014 Moldova has become the priority Eastern Partnership country in terms of bilateral aid for each of the V4 states. Yet without a European mechanism to coordinate bilateral aid for Moldova, such efforts often overlap with respect to priorities. Offering an overview of bilateral aid of each V4 state and assessing the needs of Moldova itself, the report also formulates concrete recommendations on how to counter the increasing in-country aid fragmentation in Moldova and enhance the efficiency of the distributed aid.
DAV4 II Report: From Battlegroup to Permanent Structures
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP); Visegrad Group; Central Europe; Czech Republic; Europe; European Union; Hungary; Poland; Security; security policy; Slovakia
Polish Institute of International Affairs presents a joint policy report: From Battlegroup to Permanent Structures, prepared in the framework of the research project Defence Austerity in the Visegrad Region II – DAV4 II, funded by the Interantional Visegrad Fund (IVF). The authors of the report argue, that the EU Battlegroup build together by the Visegrad countries and scheduled to enter standby in 2016, should be followed by permanent forms of defence and military cooperation between Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The policy report, which also aims to contribute to the debate about the future of the EU Battlegroups, was prepared by Central European Policy Institute (Slovakia), in cooperation with PISM (Poland), International Centre for Democratic Transition (Hungary) and Jagello 2000 (Czech Republic).
Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: V4; Visegrad 4; security
The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the third issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation”. The volume edited by Dr Kacper Rękawek of the Polish Institute of International Affairs analyses past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation while combatting non-military threats like international terrorism and organised crime to the region.The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.
Asserting the EU’s Mission in the Neighbourhood: Ten Recommendations for an Effective Eastern Partnership
Author(s): Kerry Longhurst,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; EU neighbourhood policy; Eastern Partnership
The authors consider that the EU needs to assert its role and mission in the Eastern neighbourhood with more vigour. To do this the Eastern Partnership needs to focus on the job of building up the rule of law and democracy in Eastern Europe. Though much has been achieved over the past two years, in terms of creating up the institutional framework for EaP, the reality is that democracy is back sliding in the region, corruption is endemic and social and economic catch-up of EaP countries towards EU levels is uncertain. Without fuller democratisation and promotion of the rule of law in the neighbourhood the implementation of EaP will be stunted.The Eastern Partnership holds the potential to do more but only if the EU develops a ‘democratic acquis’ replete with a precise reform agenda. Building up administrations and rooting out the sources and practices that perpetuate corruption should be a priority, twinned with a better capacity to support civil society and non-registered opposition groups and political parties, as envisaged in the European Endowment for Democracy. Negotiations on trade need to be accompanied by meaningful benefits and concessions that partner states can enjoy in the short and medium term if economies are to grow. Finally, to meet the expectations of those countries that value their European identities and where public support for the EU exists the effectiveness of EaP can be bolstered by stressing Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. Emphasising a ‘European Perspective’ will remind partner states and EU members of the right that all European countries have to join the EU if they share EU values and fulfil economic and political membership criteria.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the second issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Visegrad Cooperation within NATO and CSDP”. The volume edited by Dr Csaba Törő of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs analyzes past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation within NATO and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. It also encompasses Baltic and Ukrainian perspectives on security and defense issues. The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.
From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy Implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects
Author(s): Marcin Koczor,Paweł Tokarski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe 2020; Lisbon Strategy
Polish Institute of International Affairs published a report "From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects" by Marcin Koczor and Paweł Tokarski. The publication contains the evaluation of the implementation of the Lisbon Strategy for 2010, a summary of the entire duration of the strategy and describes the place of the current EU economic strategy, Europe 2020, in the process of economic governance reform. The report also includes conclusions and recommendations for the current strategy – Europe 2020.
EU and Its Southern Neighbours: New Challenges for the European Neighbourhood Policy
Author(s): Beata Wojna / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; European Union; European Neighbourhood Policy; ENP
The violent, unprecedented socio-political changes in North Africa and the Middle East—the stepping down of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, the anti-Qaddafi insurgency in Libya and people rallying for change in the other Arab states—prompt a revision of the EU’s approach to its southern neighbours. The present situation offers significant opportunities in this regard, even if the Arab transformations give rise to justified concerns about their further development and regional consequences.In the EU and its member states a debate is underway on the future of the EU’s policy towards the southern neighbours. The debate coincides with an across-the-board review of the European Neighbourhood Policy, the findings of which will be unveiled very soon by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton. This report is an attempt at an answer to the political and financial dilemmas of the EU’s policy towards the southern neighbours. It puts forward recommendations on ways to support states in the region in their process of democratic transition, drawing also on the transition experiences of some member states. It also points to actions to be taken by the EU and its member states to maintain a balance between the southern and eastern dimensions of the European Neighbourhood Policy.
It is assumed here that the presidency concept in the European Union—in its political and managerial aspects—has been transformed over the years into a specific, institutionalized procedure of EU politics and policy-making. That means EU member states have established the presidency as a means for their cooperation, although it was initially somewhat less institutionalized. Its objective is a search for legitimacy in decision-making; hence the ways and means of making decisions that find support from all. The procedure is effectively a living set of specific rules of behaviour that are known to all the actors involved.
The Persecution of the Rohingya: Challenges to the Transformation of Myanmar
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Burma / Myanmar; Muslims
The Myanmar army operation in Rakhine State in the last month has forced more than 400,000 civilians of the Rohingya minority to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh. The military actions were condemned internationally and accusations that the government was accepting “ethnic cleansing” arose. The situation must be viewed in the broader context of the political transformation of the country and the peace process with its ethnic minorities. The actions show that real power in the country still rests with the army, which might use the crisis to stop the democratisation process ongoing since 2011. Myanmar’s foreign partners need to insist on the return of the refugees and full integration into society in line with the recommendations of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State.
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Kurds; Turkey; Iraq; Middle East
Although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is one of Turkey’s closest partners, Ankara disapproved of this week’s independence referendum. Yet, Turkey did not take actions that would have forced the Iraqi Kurds to postpone or cancel the vote. That suggests Turkish politicians’ stance on the referendum was dictated by domestic political considerations and will harden only if the situation with Iraqi Kurdistan constitutes a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity.
Relations with the Kurds are an important element of Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. It particularly applies to Israel’s relations with Iraqi Kurds, who are considered important regional allies. Israel is the only state in the region that openly endorsed the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum and perceives the establishment of a Kurdish state as a chance to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. Israeli policy towards the Kurds remains closely linked to relations between Israel and Turkey and Iran.
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