The report analyzes conditions for defence and security cooperation within the Visegrad Group and proposes a number of concrete projects, which could be undertaken by the V4 states in the framework of NATO’s “smart defence initiative”. Among authors of the report there are PISM director Marcin Zaborowski and research fellows Marcin Terlikowski and Gareth Chappell (active in the project till March 2012 r.). The editor of the document is Tomàš Valàšek from the Central European Policy Institute (Slovak Atlantic Commission).
IDEAS Report: Towards a Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian Security Community. From Vision to Reality
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Euro-Atlantic Security Community; Eurasian Security Community
We are pleased to announce the release of the final report of the IDEAS project “Towards a Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian Security Community. From Vision to Reality”. The report includes an assessment of the current strategic environment in and around the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian regions, proposes a set of guiding principles for the development of the strategic community, and offers concrete proposals for increased cooperation in three areas: security, economic and environmental, and the human dimension. The report was presented at the forum of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). IDEAS (Initiative for the Development of a Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian Security Community) is a joint Track-2 project by the Centre for OSCE Research (CORE, Hamburg), the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (Paris), the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), and the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Russian Foreign Ministry (MGIMO), initiated by the ministers of foreign affairs of Germany, France, Poland and the Russian Federation. The PISM representative in the IDEAS Drafting Group is Łukasz Kulesa, the head of the Non-proliferation and Arms Control Project.
Still Awake-The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Arab revolution; Arab Spring; Arab Democratic Change
We are pleased to announce the release of the joint PISM - FIIA report: Still Awake: The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change, edited by Timo Behr (FIIA) and Patrycja Sasnal (PISM). With the deluge of focused policy analyses and daily news from the Middle East, the report attempts to look at the changes in the Arab world in a long-term and clearly structured perspective along with unorthodox conclusions. It examines five cases of political transition in the Arab world—Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria and Yemen—and summarizes the events so far and provides country-by-country timelines. Another distinct aspect of the report is that it has been produced by two major think tanks from European countries that do not have vital interests in the Middle East: Poland and Finland. Apart from the chapters authored by the editors it also features contributions from Hanna Ebeid (ACPSS, Egypt), Sylvia Colombo (IAI, Italy) and two Polish diplomats, Stanisław Guliński and Jakub Sławek.
Author(s): Radomír Špok,Erich Kříž,Katalin Antaloczy,Magdolna Sass,Patryk Toporowski,Karol Frank / Language(s): English
Keywords: economy; trade; Visegrad Group
The Polish Institute of International Affairs recommends you the report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer prepared under the project: V4 Trade and FDI Observer, financed by the International Visegrad Fund. PISM was represented in this project by Patryk Toporowski, PISM analyst, who was responsible in substance for a section on Poland. The report is the result of work of the small team of experts from the Visegrad Group countries: the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Editors of the whole document are Tamás Szemler (ICEG European Centre) and Andrea Éltető (Hungarian Academy of Sciences). The aim of the quarterly is the analysis of current trade and investments of the Visegrad Group countries, including the wider economic context and a longer time horizon.
Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the Report „Towards a smarter V4”, prepared within the research project “Defence Austerity: a New Paradigm for Defence and Security Cooperation in the Visegrad Region (DAV4)”. The report is a long-awaited product of the work of Visegrad countries Expert Group, in which PISM was represented by director Marcin Zaborowski and research fellowsMarcin Terlikowski and Gareth Chappell (by March 2012 r.). The editor of the document is Tomàš Valàšek (Center for European Reform/Slovak Atlantic Commission). The aim of the report is to analyze prospects of improved defence collaboration among the Visegrad Group. The document sets forth principles, which should govern the cooperation of the V4, and proposes some specific areas for collaboration.
The Eastern Partnership Conference: Towards a European Community of Democracy, Prosperity and a Stronger Civil Society
Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Ulad Vialichka,Piotr Woyke,Anna Zielińska-Rakowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Europe; European Union; integration
The paper is post-conference report of the conference "The Eastern Partnership Conference Towards a European Community of Democracy, Prosperity and a Stronger Civil Society” held by the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Centre for Eastern Studies, the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and the European External Action Service on 29 September 2011.The aim of the conference was to develop recommendations for the inclusion of civil society activities in the Eastern Partnership. Civil society has been involved in the Eastern Partnership initiative since November 2009, when the EaP Civil Society Forum was launched to support EaP goals. After two years of EaP development, the Civil Society Forum is recognized by most of the stakeholders as an important and valuable actor that regularly provides expert opinion, independent monitoring and policy proposals to government officials and EU institutions. The situation and democratic processes in the EaP region still prove to be volatile and unstable, and therefore there is the need to further strengthen Europe’s ties with the countries of the region and to develop concrete mechanisms of cooperation between official structures and civil society on securing regional stability.
The prospects of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans, AD 2011
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU enlargement; Western Balkans
The Report assesses the perspectives of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans as seen in 2011. The future EU enlargement will most likely be different from its past experiences to accommodate new member states and will most probably will proceed in a case-by-case fashion, accepting one country at a time, rather than continue with its traditional group based enlargement. Croatia may set a precedent for future in this case. The speed of future enlargements will mostly depend on the candidates’ internal capacity to build effective administrations, solve or at least diminish intensity of bilateral conflicts, and indeed convince their populations about the prospects of EU accession. An assessment of the candidates’ ability to take over the acquis communautaire in the most difficult areas of agriculture and justice indicate that their membership may not be likely before 2020, hence it would come about under the post-2020 multiannual financial framework. Croatia successfully concluding its accession talks with the EU should be used as a case for a public awareness campaign, mainly for the EU public opinions, about the benefits and prospects of EU enlargement.
Weimar Defence Cooperation – Projects to Respond to the European Imperative
Author(s): Marcel Dickow,Hilmar Linnekamp,Jean-Pierre Maulny,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Weimar Defence Cooperation
On 4 November 2011 a Report “Weimar Defence Cooperation – Projects to Respond to the European Imperative” was presented in Berlin. The paper was prepared by an international team of experts from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) and the Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques (IRIS) in a framework of a research project kindly supported by the Heinrich Böll Stiftung.
Path to Prosperity or Road to Ruin? Shale Gas Under Political Scrutiny
Author(s): / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; energetics; Energy; Europe; European Union; Poland; renewable energy; shale gas
The report seeks to explore the reasons behind the stark polarization of the European debate about shale gas. Supporters of exploration and production from shale gas deposits consider it an opportunity to significantly alter the political and economic rules affecting Europe’s energy security. Critics tend to interpret the development of the shale gas industry as a threat to the environment, a challenge to the existing strategies of limiting the green-house gas emissions, or a competition to the well-entrenched economic interests.Thus the report analyzes the politics of shale gas, looking into debates in the select European countries and probing the activities of the EU institutions (the EU Council, the Commission, the European Parliament) in this sphere. The authors investigated a broad array of factors that influence the preferences of the key players: approach to the optimal energy mix, desired level of diversification of energy supplies, or the perception of natural gas imports from an energy security angle. In addition, the report highlights the significance of the North American experience with shale gas exploration and development as a crucial determinant of the European debate.
Iran: A Challenge for Polish Diplomacy and Energy Companies
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Iran; Poland; diplomacy
After recent elections in Iran, President Hassan Rouhani has secured power. His re-election means Iran will continue the policy of breaking out of its economic isolation and luring Western investment, especially in oil and gas exploration and production. On the other hand, Iran’s actions and the tensions with the U.S. increase investment risk, which must be considered by European companies, including Polish ones.
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; Visegrad Group; Central Europe
On 1 July, Hungary took over from Poland the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group. Its motto, "V4 Connects", is meant to express both the importance of regional infrastructure development and group cohesion. Its presidency will work to facilitate more efficient use of EU digitisation and innovation programmes by V4 members. However, the presidency programme does not contain a common answer to the issue of deepening European integration. With an ongoing election campaign, Hungary might attempt to politicize its V4 cooperation.
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latin America; South America; USA
Trump administration policy has prompted concerns among Latin American countries about how their relations with the U.S. will develop. The negative reactions stem from the U.S. president’s decisions on weakening trade commitments, restricting immigration, and reducing foreign aid. Continuing such actions will only increase China’s influence in Latin America. It also will provide opportunities for greater engagement by other Asian countries, as well as the EU and Russia. Consequently, the U.S.’s traditional leadership in the region will continue to wane.
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; cyberspace
China treats the internet as an arena for global competition. It believes that EU and U.S. support for unrestricted access to information on the global level endangers the stability of its political regime. China has strengthened control over internet usage within its borders to restrict information flow. It also uses the economic expansion of Chinese IT companies abroad to make its position on cyberspace stronger and its draft International Code of Conduct for Information Security is contradictory to the EU and U.S. concepts. China’s actions require EU resistance to defend global open internet and economic freedom.
U.S. Policy toward Iran and Prospects for the Nuclear Deal
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Iran; nuclear weapons; USA; Security
Within the Trump administration, there is still the prevailing opinion on the necessity to continue the “two-track” policy approach towards Iran. It is based on decoupling and separating the issue of the Iranian nuclear programme from other issues with this country, including its ballistic missile programme and sponsoring terrorism. However, President Trump has repeatedly signalled his willingness to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015. This decision would cause tension between the U.S. and Europe in the context of countering nuclear proliferation and expanding economic cooperation with Iran.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; sanctions; USA
The U.S. Congress has extended sanctions on Russia, accused of interfering with the American elections in 2016. In doing so, Congress also sought to limit President Donald Trump’s ability to abolish them. The Russian Foreign Ministry later ordered 755 American diplomats to leave the territory of the Russian Federation. This unintended effect of the new sanctions sets the stage for a new round of disputes between the U.S. and some European countries, including views of the planned Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline project.
EU Relations with Australia: Time for a Strategic Partnership
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Australia; Europe; European Union; Free Trade Agreement
Australia is one of the important political and economic partners of the European Union. The UK’s exit from the EU risks undermining the traditional ties and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. global leadership in the face of China’s growing role requires closer cooperation with Australia. That is why the EU should recognise the country as a strategic partner and seek the swift conclusion of free-trade-agreement (FTA) negotiations. By supporting increased EU engagement, along with stronger bilateral cooperation, Poland may become a more attractive partner to Australia.
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Hungary
In May, China raised bilateral relations with Hungary to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Hungarian involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy approach aimed at increasing access to eastern markets, attracting foreign direct investment, and further strengthening economic cooperation with China. However, so far, the cooperation has not had the intended effect. New Chinese FDI in Hungary has decreased significantly in the last few years and nothing indicates a reversal of this trend.
New Electoral Law in Moldova Criticised as a Tool to Keep Power
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova
On 19 June, the Venice Commission and the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the OSCE issued a negative review of a draft electoral law in Moldova. The government says the draft bill is the result of parliamentary consensus. In fact, it has been designed to keep the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) and its unpopular leader, Vlad Plahotniuc, in power after next year’s parliamentary elections. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that, if the draft becomes law, the EU will tighten the terms of financial assistance offered to Moldova.
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union
In June, the UK government entered into talks with the EU on the conditions for leaving the bloc. With that, the government ended speculation about the possibility of stopping Brexit that appeared shortly after the parliamentary election. The EU’s consistent position on Brexit allowed it to impose on the British the mode of the talks and the priorities of the first phase of the negotiations. Divisions in the negotiating strategy among the main political forces in the UK may make the progress of the Brexit talks difficult and increases the risk of a no-deal scenario.
“Unity through Balance:” Estonia’s EU Council Presidency
Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English
Keywords: Estonia; EU Council presidency
On 1 July, Estonia took up the presidency of the EU a half year earlier than planned, replacing the UK, which has begun its separation negotiations with the bloc. Estonia will try to take advantage of issues essential to the EU agenda, such as the innovation economy, digitisation, and cybersecurity, to pursue its own interests in the European forum. On the other hand, the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit gives Estonia the chance to become more actively involved in external EU activities. However, the effectiveness of the presidency depends on the results of its efforts to coordinate the work of the Union in relation to the mass-migration crisis and the future of EU finances.
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